Nielsen: 58-42 to Coalition

The Fairfax broadsheets report this month’s Nielsen result has the Coalition’s two-party lead at 58-42, from primary votes of 28 per cent for Labor (up two), 48 per cent for the Coalition (down three) and 12 per cent for the Greens (up one). Although a bad result for Labor by any measure, this is nonetheless an improvement on their 61-39 from Nielsen the previous month, and it maintains a trend evident throughout this year of Nielsen being a few points worse for Labor than all other pollsters. It accordingly sits quite well with the 56-44 Newspoll and what I am interpreting as a 57-43 result from the substantial Morgan phone poll released on Friday.

Julia Gillard’s personal ratings have risen slightly from the canvas: her approval rating is up four to 38 per cent with disapproval down five to 57 per cent, while Tony Abbott is down four on approval to 43 per cent and up four on disapproval to 52 per cent. Abbott maintains a 47-44 lead as preferred prime minister, down from 51-40 last time. Michelle Grattan’s report tells us Labor has a 52-48 two-party lead in Victoria, compared with a 55-45 deficit in last month’s poll, and that the Coalition lead in Queensland is 65-35, down from 68-32 last time. It should be remembered here that state-level results are from small samples. Further from Grattan:

Victoria … is also where Ms Gillard has a big lead as preferred PM – she is ahead by a hefty 51-40 per cent; in New South Wales she is ahead by 46-43 per cent. By contrast, in Queensland … Ms Gillard is behind as preferred PM 36-55 per cent. In Western Australia, she is behind Mr Abbott 33-57 per cent. Voters are disillusioned with the current leaders as economic managers. Almost three in 10 (29 per cent each) think former leaders Kevin Rudd or Malcolm Turnbull would be ”best to manage another economic crisis if one occurs”. Mr Abbott was rated as best by 21 per cent, compared with 15 per cent for Ms Gillard. A total of 58 per cent prefer a leader other than the current leaders. People remain strongly against the government’s carbon price, with opposition to it steady on 56 per cent and support at 39 per cent. Backing for the carbon price is highest among the Greens (79 per cent) and ALP voters (68 per cent); overwhelmingly, Coalition voters are opposed (82 per cent). More than a quarter of Labor voters are against the carbon price, and one in five Green voters. Regional voters are more likely to oppose the carbon price (62 per cent) than city voters (53 per cent).

UPDATE: Gordon Graham on Twitter:

#Nielsen best to manage another economic crisis if one occurs: Rudd 29%, Turnbull 29%, Abbott 21%, Gillard 15%

UPDATE 2: Full results from Nielsen here. The Coalition two-party vote is 58 per cent in New South Wales (down one on last month), 48 per cent in Victoria (down seven), 65 per cent in Queensland (down three), 61 per cent in South Australia/Northern Territory (steady) and 61 per cent in Western Australia (down two), remembering that the smaller states especially come from small samples. Labor has a better overall result on respondent-allocated preferences (56-44, a five-point improvement) than on the previous-election measure, and while I don’t recommend reading much into this, it’s interesting to note how different this is from Morgan, which has consistently had Labor doing worse on respondent-allocated preferences throughout this year.

UPDATE 3: Essential Research has the Coalition lead unchanged at 57-43 on two-party preferred, Labor has gained a point on the primary vote to 31 per cent, but the Coalition and the Greens are steady on 50 per cent and 10 per cent respectively. As with Nielsen, Julia Gillard’s personal ratings have rebounded from a diabolical result a month ago: most encouragingly for her, this is the first poll since June 14 (Newspoll and Essential results from the same day) in which she has led Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, now leading 38-36 after trailing 37-39 last month. Gillard’s approval is up six to 35 per cent and her disapproval down seven to 55 per cent, while Tony Abbott is down two to 37 per cent and up one to 50 per cent.

Tellingly, 47 per cent of respondents say they think it “likely” there will be “another global financial crisis similar to the one that occurred in 2009” against 39 per cent who think it “about 50/50”, with only 8 per cent opting for “not very likely”. In that event, 40 per cent would more trust the Liberals to deal with it against 31 per cent for Labor and 20 per cent no difference, while 36 per cent would favour stimulus spending in response against 39 per cent who would not. For all that, 54 per cent believe the government has handled the economy well in recent years against 39 per cent who rate it as poor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,327 thoughts on “Nielsen: 58-42 to Coalition”

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  2. I can’t imagine that John Howard would have gone anywhere near today’s 2GB organised anti-Labor protest.

    Agreed. He would have sent Tony Abbott…oh!

  4. DavidWooding David Wooding
    by kimworldwide
    Ex-NotW royal editor Clive Goodman and PI Glen Mulcaire were paid a total of £250k since they left jail after #hacking scandal, papers rvl.

  5. Glen, a question for you!
    Are you at all uncomfortable viewing the leader of your political party appearing at a rally full of One Nation supporters and extremist rednecks?
    I can’t imagine that John Howard would have gone anywhere near today’s 2GB organised anti-Labor protest.

    TLM

    Yes I am uncomfortable with Abbott being associated with various extreme right wing groups.

    I have never supported him as Leader. I have always maintained Malcolm Turnbull would be a better leader of the Party.

    be patient

    all will be revealed

    Gusface

    Translation = we have no evidence but we hope somebody finds something or i’ll look stupid.

    Frank
    1. You’ve broken one of Mr Bowe’s policies re: Cupcake.
    2. I work on the basis people are innocent until proven guilty Re: Australia arm of NewsCorp. I guess you don’t.

  9. Frank when you promise one thing before and do the opposite after the election you’re a liar and have broken a promise.

    You applied the same standard to Howard and yet you wont for Gillard. Understandable but not cricket.

  10. Apparently this “sacrifice” wasn’t exactly the smartest thing to do. On the other hand, his boss………..

    Maybe some of the convoy participants might get the same treatment. “Workchoiced”!

    Judge people by the effort they put in,” Mr Abbott said.

    “He is doing the hard yards for our democracy.”

    Mr Logan, who seemed to be struggling to stand, told Ms Gillard to shove the carbon tax “where the sun don’t shine”.

    “I can’t explain the pain, it’s more than I can imagine and more than anyone wants to go through, but if I had to do it again I’d guarantee you I’d do it again,” he told journalists later, referring to his epic trek.

    “A carbon tax is going to kill this country.”

    Mr Logan’s wife Angie said her husband’s campaign had cost him his job, with his trucking company which had sacked him for his absence.

    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/abbott-stars-at-anticarbon-tax-rally-20110816-1ivwu.html

  12. In answer to Victoria’s question earlier on in the thread…………….yes, Hunt was at the rally today, which is proof that he’s sold out his supposed moderate credentials.
    I bet Hunt wasn’t promoting the Direct Action policy today to the 2GB assembled masses.

  15. Frank
    1. You’ve broken one of Mr Bowe’s policies re: Cupcake.

    Don’t be such a precious sook, Glen.

    You give as good as you get but can’t take it when it comes back your way!

  18. Right Wing US ideas influence the Lib/Nats
    _________________________________
    It’s apparent that sections of the Opposition are increasingly falling under the spell of the Tea Party loonies from the USA
    Note….
    (!) Menzies House Website has much from US sources..all Tea Party aligned

    (2) Today’s anti-gay-marriage rally in Canberra was addressed by a woman from the Heritage Foundation, a far-right wing body(and some of the Labor Right..The DLP ones…were present too)

    (3) Even the comments of Abbott and Co sound like they are tutored by Fox News…Foxified as they say in the USA….Murdoch’s Taliban !

  19. Gary Sparrow: Yep, what Gillard said before the election is the millstone around her neck, alas!
    And Labor’s best salesman is currently recuperating up on the Sunshine Coast – says it all abut the thorough stupidity of the likes of Shorten/Arbib/Bitar/Farrell in politically assassinating a PM who’d have won Labor a 2nd term as a majority government.

  25. News in full damage control mode!

    2.20pm: News International has issued its first statement since the select committee published the new batch of documents submitted to their inquiry including the devastating Clive Goodman letter claiming phone-hacking was widely discussed at News of the World editorial meetings.

    It reiterates that it is taking the issue seriously and fully co-operating with the police.

    News Corporation’s board has set up a Management and Standards Committee, chaired by independent chairman Lord Grabiner, which is co-operating fully with the Metropolitan Police and is facilitating their investigation into illegal voicemail interception at the News of the World and related issues.

    We recognise the seriousness of materials disclosed to the Police and Parliament and are committed to working in a constructive and open way with all the relevant authorities.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/blog/2011/aug/16/phone-hacking-scandal-live

  28. Interesting stuff and thanks for the links to the US rules Gaff. Looks to me like Murdoch is essentially finished in the UK. The big thing will be the reaction of the US authorities. I’d say there are enough people in the US annoyed at Murdoch / FOX so that there will be pressure not to let things lie if there are breaches that can be proven and pursued.

    Not sure that the same would hold for Australia unless some new issue breaks.

  29. News Corporation’s board has set up a Management and Standards Committee, chaired by independent chairman Lord Grabiner, which is co-operating fully with the Metropolitan Police and is facilitating their investigation into illegal voicemail interception at the News of the World and related issues.

    Lord Grabiner has been frequently heard saying “Look over there”…

  30. [(!) Menzies House Website has much from US sources..all Tea Party aligned

    (2) Today’s anti-gay-marriage rally in Canberra was addressed by a woman from the Heritage Foundation, a far-right wing body(and some of the Labor Right..The DLP ones…were present too)

    (3) Even the comments of Abbott and Co sound like they are tutored by Fox News…Foxified as they say in the USA….Murdoch’s Taliban !

    without prejudice

    A leading ahem lawyer has posited thus

    The uk is the battle ground

    the usa the testing range

    aus the hothouse

    makes sense in terms of msm control

  33. If there was anything to it we’d have heard of it by now. That’s old news.

    The question as to how an illegally taped phone conversation made its way to a then Murdoch-owned Australian publication remains entirely uninvestigated. Who acquired the tape, how did they acquire it, how much did they sell it for and to whom did they sell it?

    Your contention that there is nothing to suggest impropriety in the operations of News Ltd in Australia is the default for all conservatives – desperate for this, and other questions, to remain unanswered.

  34. Not sure that the same would hold for Australia unless some new issue breaks.

    and with the lack of media ownership diversity in Australia who is likely to do that? It would require a Chris Masters backed by which organisation? Perhaps The Guardian or The Independant would like to send someone down here when the weather turns cold up north…

  36. Drake

    Obvious answer = UK 🙂

    If there is any evidence then it’ll come out. None has and none is likely to.

    I think the prejudice against the Murdoch Press in Australia is largely about perceived bias against Labor and an opportunity to destroy them as many want on PB.

    They’re innocent until proven guilty. Nobody has proved them guilty in Australia.

  38. Not sure that the same would hold for Australia unless some new issue breaks.

    Gotta envy the Brits with their independent press such as the Guardian and the Independent.

  39. 2286

    Gary Sparrow

    Posted Tuesday, August 16, 2011 at 11:34 pm | Permalink

    Drake

    Obvious answer = UK

    If there is any evidence then it’ll come out. None has and none is likely to.

    I think the prejudice against the Murdoch Press in Australia is largely about perceived bias against Labor and an opportunity to destroy them as many want on PB.

    They’re innocent until proven guilty. Nobody has proved them guilty in Australia.

    Spoken like a True Liberal with his head shared between the sand and Abbott’s and Murdochs Arsk.

  40. (2) Today’s anti-gay-marriage rally in Canberra was addressed by a woman from the Heritage Foundation, a far-right wing body(and some of the Labor Right..The DLP ones…were present too)

    I hope John Murphy loses his pre-selection on the grounds of abject stupidity.

  42. and with the lack of media ownership diversity in Australia who is likely to do that? It would require a Chris Masters backed by which organisation?

    The ABC would be loathe to rock any organisation’s boat these days … with the exception of progressive political parties.

  45. I hope John Murphy loses his pre-selection on the grounds of abject stupidity.

    If memory serves me right, TTH was banned on the grounds of abject stupdity however political pre-selection does not have the same high standards as PB.

  46. Glen,

    They’re innocent until proven guilty. Nobody has proved them guilty in Australia.

    There will be some red faces here if something breaks. And it won’t be on Hey Hey either! 😉

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