Nielsen: 58-42 to Coalition

The Fairfax broadsheets report this month’s Nielsen result has the Coalition’s two-party lead at 58-42, from primary votes of 28 per cent for Labor (up two), 48 per cent for the Coalition (down three) and 12 per cent for the Greens (up one). Although a bad result for Labor by any measure, this is nonetheless an improvement on their 61-39 from Nielsen the previous month, and it maintains a trend evident throughout this year of Nielsen being a few points worse for Labor than all other pollsters. It accordingly sits quite well with the 56-44 Newspoll and what I am interpreting as a 57-43 result from the substantial Morgan phone poll released on Friday.

Julia Gillard’s personal ratings have risen slightly from the canvas: her approval rating is up four to 38 per cent with disapproval down five to 57 per cent, while Tony Abbott is down four on approval to 43 per cent and up four on disapproval to 52 per cent. Abbott maintains a 47-44 lead as preferred prime minister, down from 51-40 last time. Michelle Grattan’s report tells us Labor has a 52-48 two-party lead in Victoria, compared with a 55-45 deficit in last month’s poll, and that the Coalition lead in Queensland is 65-35, down from 68-32 last time. It should be remembered here that state-level results are from small samples. Further from Grattan:

Victoria … is also where Ms Gillard has a big lead as preferred PM – she is ahead by a hefty 51-40 per cent; in New South Wales she is ahead by 46-43 per cent. By contrast, in Queensland … Ms Gillard is behind as preferred PM 36-55 per cent. In Western Australia, she is behind Mr Abbott 33-57 per cent. Voters are disillusioned with the current leaders as economic managers. Almost three in 10 (29 per cent each) think former leaders Kevin Rudd or Malcolm Turnbull would be ”best to manage another economic crisis if one occurs”. Mr Abbott was rated as best by 21 per cent, compared with 15 per cent for Ms Gillard. A total of 58 per cent prefer a leader other than the current leaders. People remain strongly against the government’s carbon price, with opposition to it steady on 56 per cent and support at 39 per cent. Backing for the carbon price is highest among the Greens (79 per cent) and ALP voters (68 per cent); overwhelmingly, Coalition voters are opposed (82 per cent). More than a quarter of Labor voters are against the carbon price, and one in five Green voters. Regional voters are more likely to oppose the carbon price (62 per cent) than city voters (53 per cent).

UPDATE: Gordon Graham on Twitter:

#Nielsen best to manage another economic crisis if one occurs: Rudd 29%, Turnbull 29%, Abbott 21%, Gillard 15%

UPDATE 2: Full results from Nielsen here. The Coalition two-party vote is 58 per cent in New South Wales (down one on last month), 48 per cent in Victoria (down seven), 65 per cent in Queensland (down three), 61 per cent in South Australia/Northern Territory (steady) and 61 per cent in Western Australia (down two), remembering that the smaller states especially come from small samples. Labor has a better overall result on respondent-allocated preferences (56-44, a five-point improvement) than on the previous-election measure, and while I don’t recommend reading much into this, it’s interesting to note how different this is from Morgan, which has consistently had Labor doing worse on respondent-allocated preferences throughout this year.

UPDATE 3: Essential Research has the Coalition lead unchanged at 57-43 on two-party preferred, Labor has gained a point on the primary vote to 31 per cent, but the Coalition and the Greens are steady on 50 per cent and 10 per cent respectively. As with Nielsen, Julia Gillard’s personal ratings have rebounded from a diabolical result a month ago: most encouragingly for her, this is the first poll since June 14 (Newspoll and Essential results from the same day) in which she has led Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, now leading 38-36 after trailing 37-39 last month. Gillard’s approval is up six to 35 per cent and her disapproval down seven to 55 per cent, while Tony Abbott is down two to 37 per cent and up one to 50 per cent.

Tellingly, 47 per cent of respondents say they think it “likely” there will be “another global financial crisis similar to the one that occurred in 2009” against 39 per cent who think it “about 50/50”, with only 8 per cent opting for “not very likely”. In that event, 40 per cent would more trust the Liberals to deal with it against 31 per cent for Labor and 20 per cent no difference, while 36 per cent would favour stimulus spending in response against 39 per cent who would not. For all that, 54 per cent believe the government has handled the economy well in recent years against 39 per cent who rate it as poor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,327 comments on “Nielsen: 58-42 to Coalition”

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  1. [If there is any evidence then it’ll come out. None has and none is likely to. ]

    Unless, of course, there is an investigation or inquiry.

    It remains an uncontested fact that the Camillagate tapes were illegally recorded in the UK before finding their way into the hands of a Murdoch publication here in Australia, where they were first published and then republished in the UK with abandon. This shielded those media outlets in the UK from any legal action as they were then publishing that which was the public record in Australia.

  2. [

    CATA – No Carbon Tax Rally
    CATA would like to thank each and every one of the 5000 – 6000 everyday Australians who attended today’s ‘Election Now’ ‘No Carbon Tax’ rally on the lawns of Parliament House.]

  3. [if the aus branck of ltd news reprinted a hacked story are they guilty?]

    I really don’t know Gus. Probably not, for the same reason that those UK outlets that republished the Camillagate story were able to do so, ie. already on the public record.

    Not sure Gus.

  4. Another lie by James Murdoch, who said Harbottle was engaged to look at the whole of NOTW.

    [In another statement, Harbottle and Lewis tells Parliament that it was “expressly limited to the context of Mr. Goodman’s employment dispute,” and that “there was absolutely no question of the Firm being asked to provide News International with a clean bill of health which it could deploy years later in wholly different contexts for wholly different purposes.”]

  5. [We recognise the seriousness of materials disclosed to the Police and Parliament and are committed to working in a constructive and open way with all the relevant authorities]

    Presumably NI’s idea of working in an “open way” includes redacting out anything that incriminates them before handing it on to the police and parliament.

  6. Psephos might be a bit perturbed by this.

    [LABOR hardheads have strengthened their resolve to kill the career of one of Julia Gillard’s key backers — Victorian senator David Feeney, who rose to prominence last year as one of the “faceless men” who prised Kevin Rudd from office and installed Ms Gillard as Prime Minister.

    The Australian has been told that not only does Senator Feeney face stiff opposition to his effort to move to the lower house, he might have to fight the next election in one of two unwinnable positions in the Senate. The Australian last week revealed a push by Labor powerbrokers to prepare the party in Victoria for opposition amid parlous opinion polls and expectation of an election loss.]

  7. US columnist’s witty attack on Republicans
    J F Kunstler’s amusing weekly comment from the USA looks at the Looney Tea Party types now seeking nomination
    Michaele Bachmann who with her husband runs a “counselling clinic” to make Gays into Straights…and who was much impressed by a recent book on the Confederate General Robt E Lee and Slavery.. ..which suggests that Blacks may have been better off under slavery.,than they are now !

    I am not making this up !!

    and Gov Perry of Texas who makes all his major statements at Prayer Meetings!
    These by the way the right-wing models for some on our own Opposition
    Kunstler suggests we try to imagine either of these3 two idiots in conference with Putin or Hu Jin Tao on a world stage.
    Very wry and funny stuff,but real black comedy !

  8. From Auysten Tayshus on Facebook:

    [Austen Tayshus
    Julia Gillard will always be my preferred Prime Minister.I ran against Tony Abbott in the last election and he put the ATO onto me.As if I was a real threat to Mr Budgie Smuggler.Julia will rise to the job.She wants to make a difference like Gough.Money is not the most important consideration.Give her a go ANGRY!]

  9. [Austen Tayshus
    Julia Gillard will always be my preferred Prime Minister.I ran against Tony Abbott in the last election and he put the ATO onto me.As if I was a real threat to Mr Budgie Smuggler.Julia will rise to the job.She wants to make a difference like Gough.Money is not the most important consideration.Give her a go ANGRY!]

    She’s also pro-Israel, of course.

  10. Taalk about dedidcation to your craft – From the Eulogy given to the Late Reg Whiteman’s Perth’s Original Fat Cat:

    [On one other occasion, which signifies his complete dedication to the job, we used to do the Entertainment Centre every year for his birthday party, and it was enormous. It was the closest thing I ever got to being a rock star. It was a phenomenal amount of fun with more than 16 thousand people would come to Fat Cat’s birthday party. One year it was decided that we would always have a feature number for Reggie, a dance for Reggie to do because really he was the best dancer. So I don’t know if you ever saw a Robert Redford movie The Electric Horseman? In that film he’s in a suit on his horse, and they are both illuminated, dancing in the centre of the arena. So this is Fat Cat’s solo entry, dim the lights, in a pool of light dancing. In order to achieve this, in the days before LEDs (Light-emitting diodes), so we had a special battery pack made to run fairy lights. His big top hat is lit up, his cane was lit up and he looked fantastic, the dance went well and he come off to thunderous applause. I’m in the wings waiting for him because we’ve got a turn around, and get him back out on the stage, and on with the show. But as he gets into the wings, the head comes off, the suit comes down and a big cloud of smoke comes out from under the suit. The cats on fire. So I said to someone very quickly, ‘Somebody put the cat out’, then I went out on stage, thinking, ‘What happens now?’ If he doesn’t come back on, this show, which is only in the first half, has got a very serious problem. So I start busking with the audience, and furiously thinking whilst I can’t see anything thats happening. The stage manager is sitting on the front with a thousand mile stare, going, ‘Well I don’t know’. About a minute and a half later there’s a big cheer and out he walks on stage and the show goes on. He did that show, and the repeat performance, with second degree burns on his chest, because it was Fat Cat’s birthday party, and it was going to go on. He was going to go on.?]

  11. William…2322… re Julia’s strong pro-Israel line
    Yes and it will be interesting to see how this comes into conflict with Rudd’s long and arduous campaign for a Security Council seat for Australia…against it has to be said. Luxembourg!

    Rudd is said to favour Australia abstaining or even voting for the Palestine resolution to come before the General Assembly in it’s annual Sept. meeting.

    The resolution will seek to seat a Palestinian nation in the UN
    A pretty reasonable notion,but one Israel will oppose

    This would mean that Israel would’.t be able to occupy the cities of the West Bank at any whim as they do now. The resolution will have total support ,of the Islamic world and across most of South America,much of Asia,and from some European states like Norway.and others

    If Australia lines up alone with the US and Israel ,Rudd can kiss his chances of a Security Council seat goodbye
    Gillard probably doesn’t care ,and she is very close to the Jewish lobby,and she visited Israel two years ago with Andrew Bolt,Michael Danby and other of the same ilk

    But Rudd may be very unhappy with such an outcome…and how will he respond???
    a big question really…touching on the Govt’s very survival when you think about it.

  12. [Nationals Senate leader Barnaby Joyce told the rally his four daughters would be affected if same-sex marriage was allowed.

    “We know that the best protection for those girls is that they get themselves into a secure relationship with a loving husband, and I want that to happen for them.

    “I don’t want any legislator to take that right away from me.”]

    Are all four of his daughters gay?

    He seems really concerned for them and fraught that he won’t be able to marry them off to a husband of his choice.

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