The Fairfax broadsheets report this month’s Nielsen result has the Coalition’s two-party lead at 58-42, from primary votes of 28 per cent for Labor (up two), 48 per cent for the Coalition (down three) and 12 per cent for the Greens (up one). Although a bad result for Labor by any measure, this is nonetheless an improvement on their 61-39 from Nielsen the previous month, and it maintains a trend evident throughout this year of Nielsen being a few points worse for Labor than all other pollsters. It accordingly sits quite well with the 56-44 Newspoll and what I am interpreting as a 57-43 result from the substantial Morgan phone poll released on Friday.
Julia Gillard’s personal ratings have risen slightly from the canvas: her approval rating is up four to 38 per cent with disapproval down five to 57 per cent, while Tony Abbott is down four on approval to 43 per cent and up four on disapproval to 52 per cent. Abbott maintains a 47-44 lead as preferred prime minister, down from 51-40 last time. Michelle Grattan’s report tells us Labor has a 52-48 two-party lead in Victoria, compared with a 55-45 deficit in last month’s poll, and that the Coalition lead in Queensland is 65-35, down from 68-32 last time. It should be remembered here that state-level results are from small samples. Further from Grattan:
Victoria … is also where Ms Gillard has a big lead as preferred PM – she is ahead by a hefty 51-40 per cent; in New South Wales she is ahead by 46-43 per cent. By contrast, in Queensland … Ms Gillard is behind as preferred PM 36-55 per cent. In Western Australia, she is behind Mr Abbott 33-57 per cent. Voters are disillusioned with the current leaders as economic managers. Almost three in 10 (29 per cent each) think former leaders Kevin Rudd or Malcolm Turnbull would be ”best to manage another economic crisis if one occurs”. Mr Abbott was rated as best by 21 per cent, compared with 15 per cent for Ms Gillard. A total of 58 per cent prefer a leader other than the current leaders. People remain strongly against the government’s carbon price, with opposition to it steady on 56 per cent and support at 39 per cent. Backing for the carbon price is highest among the Greens (79 per cent) and ALP voters (68 per cent); overwhelmingly, Coalition voters are opposed (82 per cent). More than a quarter of Labor voters are against the carbon price, and one in five Green voters. Regional voters are more likely to oppose the carbon price (62 per cent) than city voters (53 per cent).
UPDATE: Gordon Graham on Twitter:
#Nielsen best to manage another economic crisis if one occurs: Rudd 29%, Turnbull 29%, Abbott 21%, Gillard 15%
UPDATE 2: Full results from Nielsen here. The Coalition two-party vote is 58 per cent in New South Wales (down one on last month), 48 per cent in Victoria (down seven), 65 per cent in Queensland (down three), 61 per cent in South Australia/Northern Territory (steady) and 61 per cent in Western Australia (down two), remembering that the smaller states especially come from small samples. Labor has a better overall result on respondent-allocated preferences (56-44, a five-point improvement) than on the previous-election measure, and while I don’t recommend reading much into this, it’s interesting to note how different this is from Morgan, which has consistently had Labor doing worse on respondent-allocated preferences throughout this year.
UPDATE 3: Essential Research has the Coalition lead unchanged at 57-43 on two-party preferred, Labor has gained a point on the primary vote to 31 per cent, but the Coalition and the Greens are steady on 50 per cent and 10 per cent respectively. As with Nielsen, Julia Gillard’s personal ratings have rebounded from a diabolical result a month ago: most encouragingly for her, this is the first poll since June 14 (Newspoll and Essential results from the same day) in which she has led Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, now leading 38-36 after trailing 37-39 last month. Gillard’s approval is up six to 35 per cent and her disapproval down seven to 55 per cent, while Tony Abbott is down two to 37 per cent and up one to 50 per cent.
Tellingly, 47 per cent of respondents say they think it “likely” there will be “another global financial crisis similar to the one that occurred in 2009” against 39 per cent who think it “about 50/50”, with only 8 per cent opting for “not very likely”. In that event, 40 per cent would more trust the Liberals to deal with it against 31 per cent for Labor and 20 per cent no difference, while 36 per cent would favour stimulus spending in response against 39 per cent who would not. For all that, 54 per cent believe the government has handled the economy well in recent years against 39 per cent who rate it as poor.
Glen / Gary Sparrow,
The point I’m making (which somehow you’ve missed) was that he said he didn’t expect to MAKE MAJOR CHANGES.
SerfChoices was, by definition, major changes.
So he did change his mind rightaway after the election, which does shoot down your claim that he didn’t.
That is GOLD
😀
William
Perhaps we could simply rename Frank Muffin. He calls others cupcake so I guess he would be happy being called “Muffin”. Seems fair to me.
People who use homophobic, sexist terms like cupcake and petal should be assumed to be talking about themselves.
Muffin for cupcake
Petunia can refer top those using terms like petal.
Seems fair – bit primary school of course but late at night that is common enough.
By the standards being applied to Gillard, that makes John Howard a liar.
Well, what about the 16 Coalition Senators still in parliament who were elected on a platform of supporting a price on carbon.
Do they count as liars for now turning their back on the policy they were elected on?
Gillard said she would put a price on carbon – and she meant it.
Gillard said that she would not introduce a carbon tax – and she meant it.
HELLO! One of the above had to give you idiotic bunch of bogans.
Maybe she should hold on the “idiotic bunch of bogans” 😐
Interesting comment after that youtube clip of Abbott at the rally. I wonder if it means what I think they meant to mean? 😉
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wfhn6YyJdQY&feature=feedu
StGusface Gusface
@ @mirandadevine you just occupy a planet on the extremities of the universe. Over there, on the far far right, not far from Janet’s planet
dareto
can i be pavlova?
Mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
Cuppa I never claimed he didnt.
I merely said some elements of it were stated Coalition policy before the election and hence he wasnt changing his mind and were put to the Senate and failed previously.
However, it doesnt entirely exclude the fact that in its 2005 form Workchoices was not taken to the people. And while not 100% correct you could mount a case that he lied in 2004.
Just tell Devine and Janet that Trioli is a better sort 😈
Deluded Devine re 2211.
Shows,
Can they TRADE the permits during the first three years?
Glen The Sparrows Fart reffered rto cupcake himself.
Take your own advice re your screen name our is it more like dare unable to Read.
daretotread,
Very good description of what you just posted.
With all that is happening around the place at present, surely you can post something a bit better than that piece of childish tosh!
Imacca
I particularly like this part; especially if they have been trying to hide the payments as something else on their books.
These are the things Roo has been paying lobbyists to try to water down over the last few years. Almost like he knew what might be round the corner.
http://www.fcpaenforcement.com/explained/explained.asp
Err, just like Labor put the CPRS to parliament, so it was completely clear what their policy was.
So to summarise, Gillard is a liar and Howard is a liar.
Agreed 🙂
In the first three years, free permits can be traded, but purchased permits can only be sold back to the government if it turns out they aren’t needed.
But companies have to buy permits to cover their pollution liability.
Are there any other taxes that work like that? The answer is no, because it is a fixed price ETS, not a flat tax.
arent all pollies liars
some just better than others?
Petalcup.
And guess who the bigger liar is ?
Unca Howie of course.
Oh, and those 16 Coalition Senators who are now opposing a policy they were elected to support are massive liars.
Glen,
You’ve had nothing to say on the fresh evidence in the News of the World phone-hacking scandal, only a quick question to Dio in the vain hope that The Guardian might be tarred with the same brush. You’ve been furiously chipping away at the old “Julia lied” line since the London story broke an hour or so ago.
No interest in the Murdoch story?
All the correspondence
http://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/commons-select/culture-media-and-sport-committee/news/further-news-international-correspondence/
Question.
Has Gillard lied about anything else?
Abbott lies from one appearance to the next.
Now, why would I say you did claim it if you didn’t?
Check again, Glen / Gary Sparrow. Post 2143:
Click on this link to verify:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2011/08/14/nielsen-58-42-to-coalition/comment-page-43/#comment-982008
Now this is getting silly and circular, Glen. How about taking your daily memory pill. 😉
ZING
😉
Dont.Go.There.
If Murdoch and Co are guilty the evidence will prove this and many of the senior execs in the UK will be thrown in jail and good riddance.
Drake I was asking Diogs because I heard about a possible case and assumed Diogs would know the truth of the matter hence why I asked him.
To be honest I don’t have too much interest in the Murdoch story since it’s a UK thing and has very little if anything to do with Australian media outlets owned and run by New Corp since there is no evidence to say any of them has acted inappropriately.
Cuppa I was referring to the GST not Workchoices.
Petalcup,
It is NOT just a UK thing and you know it.
Miranda decides to tweet her insults and displeasure as soon as her boss Murdoch comes under further scrutiny. How unsurprisement!
Your sides will split, your heart will split…..
glen
you do good comedy
I just noticed, there are 980,000+ plus comments posted on Poll Bludger.
Heading for the big One Mill.
Bilbo, Will there be a prize for the poster of the one millionth comment?
your heart will go pit a pat
😉
It’s a shame the letter wasn’t written by someone who hadn’t just been done for phone-hacking the royals, but the cover-up of the letter combined with the huge money he was paid and Harbottle’s comments will ensure the snowball keeps growing.
You are lucky I’m tired tonight Gus 😛
*crashed*
Night bludgers
cuppa
there is
A week with glen
second prize
2 weeks with glen
centre
u juz a pussy
sleep tight
🙂
Frank if you have any evidence to prove that any New Corps owned media outlet in Australia has engaged in wire tapping then post it otherwise you’re howling at the moon.
It’s a UK thing.
G’night victoria
g’night everyone
Glen @ 2218
Well I disagree.
1. Gillard was stupid to agree with a suggestion that she is imposing a ‘carbon Tax’ when it is in reality a ‘Price on Carbon’ to kick off an ETS.
2. Even if it was a ‘Carbon Tax’, for Gillard to have lied, she would have needed to have the intention at the time of the ‘no carbon tax’ statement to deceive people and in fact to the opposite. This is not the case.
The far more interesting element in Australia will be payments to police for information. I
can’t recall anyone issuing blanket denials about that.
Gos
the meme seems
UK
USA
AUS
I can wait
:evil;
I’ll be wishing you luck then Gus! 😉
Sorry Frank but that does not constitute evidence to say NewsCorp owned Australian media outlets have been engaged in wire tapping.
Fail!
Didn’t Abbott say in QT today that Julia Gillard garnered (not his word) “millions” of votes through her ‘No Carbon Tax’ ‘lie’?
Rubbish!
Please twitter the FBI. This will save them a lot of time and money.
Glen, a question for you!
Are you at all uncomfortable viewing the leader of your political party appearing at a rally full of One Nation supporters and extremist rednecks?
I can’t imagine that John Howard would have gone anywhere near today’s 2GB organised anti-Labor protest.