At some point in the previous fortnight, I resolved to abandon my practice of reporting Morgan face-to-face results by highlighting the previous-election measure of two-party preferred, rather than the respondent-allocated method favoured by Morgan. For those not familiar with this issue, there are two methods pollsters can use to determine how minor party and independent voters would allocate preferences: asking them, or making a distribution according to how voters for the relevant parties divided between Labor and the Coalition at the previous election. While the former would appear to pass the common sense test, it is in fact the latter which has consistently given more reliable results. It would seem that asking respondents places them in a position which is not replicated in the polling booth, where many follow how-to-vote cards or otherwise contrive to avoid engaging mentally with how they order their preferences – the significance of which many would not appreciate. As a result, the previous-election method has come to be favoured by every company other than Morgan, with Newspoll having adopted the practice after its final pre-election poll in 2004 was broadly accurate with regard to the primary vote, but awry on two-party preferred. My policy of favouring the previous-election measure was adopted for the sake of consistency in a period when Morgan seemed to be jumping around from one method to the other. However, Morgan has since settled upon the respondent-allocated measure, despite its poor track record. Highlighting a different result from Morgan’s was thus creating confusion, notwithstanding that I believe it to be the superior method.
Today Morgan has published its first face-to-face poll results since I made this decision, and they have rather awkwardly produced the biggest divide yet between the two measures. The respondent-allocated figure highlighted by Morgan has the Coalition with a thumping 56.5-43.5 lead, much the same as the 56-44 result from the previous poll (which was conducted on the weekend of July 9/10, with the carbon tax announcement coming on the latter date; the current poll combines the weekends of July 16/17 and July 23/24). However, the previous-election method gives the government a far happier result of 53-47. The primary votes are in fact little changed: Labor is up a point to 34.5 per cent, the Coalition down one to 47 per cent and the Greens up half to 12 per cent. What has happened is an exacerbation of the recent trend where Labor’s share of minor party and independent preferences has gone in the same direction as its level of direct support. However, I remain unconvinced that this will be replicated on polling day. The Morgan figures for non-major parties are essentially identical to those recorded from the previous election, when the Greens polled 11.8 per cent and others 6.6 per cent (compared with 12 per cent and 6.5 per cent). If we take the Morgan respondent-allocated figure at face value, this suggests Labor’s share of all non-major party preferences has slumped from 66 per cent to 49 per cent. Since nearly two thirds of these voters are Greens supporters, this seems very hard to credit. The question nonetheless remains as to why poll respondents who favour minor parties and independents have become so much less likely to nominate Labor than the Coalition, to which I don’t have an answer – but keep in mind that the solid swing against Labor in the 2010 election was not reflected in the share of preferences it received.
Nonetheless, the record should note that Morgan has published a figure of 56.5-43.5, and has done so using a method that other pollsters were happy with until about half a decade ago. Equally though we should note that the alternative and apparently more reliable method has produced a result solidly more favourable to Labor than other pollsters have been producing of late. This brings us back to the old issue of the strong lean to Labor which has traditionally been evident in Morgan face-to-face polls, which the recent anti-Labor trend of respondent-allocated preferences has obscured. This point is illustrated by a chart I produced last month showing how Morgan face-to-face results (along with Essential and Nielsen) have differed from Newspoll since the start of 2009. As you can see from the two measures provided by Morgan, the issue of which preference method used was largely academic until the start of this year, when the present gap began to open. On this basis Morgan had become less favourable to Labor than Newspoll using the respondent-allocated method; its previous-election results remained more favourable, though only to the tune of about one point rather than the traditional three.
Darn,
More grist from the News Limited cess pit of bile.
I reckon that’s about 15 News Limited journos who have now canned her despite there not being any vendetta.
No Vendetta, read all about it on pages 1, 5, 7, 15 25 and a double page spread in the sports section.
Darn
Bruce Guthrie did a piece yesterday saying that Nixon used to communicate directly with the Herald Sun if she did not like what was written about her.
Of course Guthrie is a poacher turned gamekeeper type so his views should be treated with a little caution.
If it wasn’t so serious, it would be hilarious –
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/boehner-balking
[latikambourke Federal Labor MP Graham Perrett ‘the Marriage Act is written by lawyers, not God.’ http://j.mp/o83eNQ #gaymarriage
5 minutes ago]
dave,
Finally Boehner is getting it. They may be getting favourable press right now but come election time the American people will remember who sold them down the river without an their pensions, US Military salaries and welfare and left them to fend for themselves.
[Laws asking Joyce if he’s read anything about Hitler who, Laws says, must have been an extraordinary man the way he got the people stirred up.]
Why are talkback radio and tabloid hacks obsessed with Hitler? They all love talking about him, and take any opportunity to use him in any analogy with the present day. It’s extraordinary, and somewhat disturbing.
Confessions,
Whether they like to admit it or not, the modern tenets of marketing and advertising have their basis in the Hitlers propaganda practices.
Laws asked about support the PM is getting from unexpected source3s (Cameron/Blaikr).
Joyce said ‘the UK is an island – has an interest in shifting around millions of pieces of paper to be wasted on a cold, odourless gas. (Note he omitted weightless).
Phew, wind Joyce up and he just doesn’t know when to stop. Most of what he is saying is tripe.
BH
I wish Joyce hwd gone away with Abbott
Concerning warm Oz weather:
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/australias-warmest-end-to-july-in-decades/18201
A quick update on the email pest who’s been sending me unsolicited Climate Denial spam.
Employing classic Gish Gallop technique when I rebutted his first ratbag PDF attachment (written by one “Gregg D. Thompson” from Brisbane) – the one that said volcanoes poured out more CO2 in one year than the whole of human industrial pollution, and that CO2 is just a harmless gas that plants love to breathe – he sent me another one.
This was peer-reviewed, so it at least had some credibility, even though the author is a Creationist wannabee who comes from an American university located not too far removed from the town of East Bumcrack.
But the classic Gish Gallop does apply: if you beat them on one thing, they segue (always calmly) over to something else until, eventually, you either admit you don’t understand the complexities of the particular argument, or you’ve never heard of this particular climate science paper, or you just tell them to piss off.
So I took option #3, spat the dummy and accused him of being just as much a political hack as I am, trying to employ gentleman’s club science to push his party’s barrow. Seeing as he owns a large pile in Balmoral (part of Tony Abbott’s electorate) worth about $8 million and I know he’s a Tory of the 33rd degree, this wasn’t an altogether unfounded accusation for me to level.
Ah ha! Gotcha! He wrote back suggesting I restrict my ad hominem attacks to Twitter, as that was about my level of discourse. No mention of the rebuttal I made of the first paper he sent. No mention of the Creationist tendencies that the author of the second enjoys.
His was exactly the strategy that Monckton employed at the NPC. The journos were putty in his hands as he pulled triple-precision decimal numbers and dissenting climate science papers from the air, with them flailing away like limp lettuce leaves trying to get him to admit he couldn’t sit in the House Of Lords.
Sometimes you just have to say, enough’s enough, and ask them to leave you alone.
In any case, I’ve still got his cc. list. All 200-odd names..
so who is standing in the lotop shoes, while he is holiddaying,
is the Truss. of so i hope he gets heaps of exposure from the press,.
[Julia wore out her shoe leather in three weeks… Visiting ALP seats]
Just a quickie
PM Julia Gillard visited Macmillan electorate, held by Lib Russell Broadbent, on July 16
The carbon price was announced on July 10
facts? what are they!
[Bruce Guthrie did a piece yesterday saying that Nixon used to communicate directly with the Herald Sun if she did not like what was written about her.]
Not only did she complain but the editor at the time was hauled over the coals for it. Now we have another editor quoting some of the extremely complementary things the paper has said about her. Doesn’t sound like a vendetta to me.
Pure Poison blog:Liberal.org.au publishes calls to violence
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/purepoison/2011/08/01/liberal-org-au-publishes-calls-to-violence/
confessions
[Why are talkback radio and tabloid hacks obsessed with Hitler? They all love talking about him, and take any opportunity to use him in any analogy with the present day. It’s extraordinary, and somewhat disturbing.]
A man spouting odius shite convincing the most cultured and educated nation in Europe to act like mindless barbarians. You can see why he is such a role model for them.
Fact is Joyce DID predict the US default.
Joyce is an odd fellow. Foot in mouth certainly but not as stupid as people think.
I recall it because with typical Joyce like clumsiness, he raised it at a Parliamentary committee. He was ridiculed.
Henry replied that wtte that although unlikely, this was not the time and place to discuss it. Left me with the impression that Henry thought he might be right but did not want to encourage panic. Journos were too thick or lazy to get the whole picture.
Laws just telling people to settle down and stop talking about getting rid of the Govt. Said ‘you may not have voted for them, I may not have voted for them but they are in Govt. and you just have to wait until the next election to vote them out if you want to”
He also let Joyce rave on without saying much at all. When Joyce hung up he said that the PM had the support for carbon pricing from Cameron, Blair and .. Turnbull. Said the only thing he (Laws) is not happy with is that the PM renegged on her promise of ‘no carbon tax’.
[is not happy with is that the PM renegged on her promise of ‘no carbon tax’]
what a lame excuse email him BH there is a video some where on the net someone put it up a few weeks ago, that clearly show she did not.
i am sure you can do a very good email to clarify that for him,
have you clicked on to cuppas link..
[WWP
I didn’t see what you did but it seems that the deal that will get through is for an agreed level of cuts, a temporary debt ceiling increase and the formation of a high powered committee charged with the responsibility of coming up with other substantial cuts by Thanksgiving.
But George W Bush’s “temporary” tax cuts for the rich are off the table!]
Well I was out having a walk in Bush’s very hot texas and this was a couple of pages ago, but it says a lot about a country that has to punish the poor to look after the rich, that is really what the Republicans are demanding, and the dems agreeing to. I find it astounding.
But I’m just a silly homesick Paul Keating fan.
Ray Hadley continuing his personal vendetta against Mark Riley, claims he’s just a Labor stooge.
This is rich, coming from a radio network that 24/7 is a cheersquad for the Liberal Party.
Thank you, BH.
Also I hate US state taxes and their absurd ‘add on’ after the total, Howard got that right with the GST even if for very political reasons, and tipping, what an absurd system lets you pay people nothing and then rely on unspoken rules about tipping them if they work hard and smile a lot for the really low pay … oh wait a country that is about to punish the poor to pay for tax cuts for the rich (Glen would love it here).
WWP
i had no idea you live in the USA great place to buy quilting fabric my shop here wants 29 dollars a meter i can buy it in texas for 7.00
why dont you come home wwp
of course if ever tone got in you may prefer NZ or even tas as we are isolated from shock joks
Darn
[Now we have another editor quoting some of the extremely complementary things the paper has said about her. Doesn’t sound like a vendetta to me.]
That News Limited could find only five complimentary quotes over a period of 10 years is pretty damning in my book.
In fact, I’ll bet they’re all from her first few years as chief commissioner.
Bruce Guthrie was on radio the other day saying that even though he broke the Qantas story and copped it from Rupe’s sister over publishing the derogatory article (bit of a beat-up in fact) and that he had a bit of a conflict of interest in the whole Nixon saga (as he blames said article for the beginning of his demise at Limited Noos), he also said that the Herald Sun actively waged a vendetta against Nixon after Rupe’s sister stepped down from the board.
The herald sun also waged a vendetta against Simon Overland.
[Ray Hadley continuing his personal vendetta against Mark Riley, claims he’s just a Labor stooge.
This is rich, coming from a radio network that 24/7 is a cheersquad for the Liberal Party.]
Repeat after me: Right-Wing Projection…
WeWantPaul
[… oh wait a country that is about to punish the poor to pay for tax cuts for the rich]
A fine example of that here. As one sign said “Jesus Didn’t Need a Permit”
[20 Orlando Police Steal food from Children, Arrest 6 MORE for feeding the Hungry]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDD6FtNMpNw
paroti
there was a time in Holland for years and years after the war if you mentioned hitler
you where ostracized, this is only going back 10 years dont know now of course
[Whether they like to admit it or not, the modern tenets of marketing and advertising have their basis in the Hitlers propaganda practices.]
confessions – SK is right. It always puzzled me but it’s all about the ability to whip people up to do what you want them to. I was surprised by Laws comments but Joyce didn’t get the analogy.
Does Joyce have the rat cunning of JohBJ or is his mind as rubbishy as his mouth seems to be.
[Ray Hadley continuing his personal vendetta against Mark Riley, claims he’s just a Labor stooge.]
do you mean the ch. 7 riley
The most frustrating thing about the U.S. debt crisis is how partisan the debate has become.
One side wants only wants to cut spending.
The other side wants only to increase revenue.
The simple fact is that the problem is so massive that both need to be done and in no small measure.
The longer they dither and keep raising the debt ceiling while negotiating feeble ‘solutions’ the worse the crisis will be down the road.
The silly thing is if the nutters from the tea party got their way and there were no further increases in the debt ceiling they would have actually done the country a favour as it would have forced real action.
But we will see the limit raised once again and the problem go unsolved yet again. The problem will be that much worse again next time around.
Space Kidette,
[Whether they like to admit it or not, the modern tenets of marketing and advertising have their basis in the Hitlers propaganda practices. ]
I reckon the Naz!s just polished up the strategies that the churches had been using for the previous 1500 years.
Oh, and are still using. Every marketing strategy known is used by the churches to propagate their dogma.
It’s pretty effective too, you have to admit especially when they enlist the often willing assistance of the state to help out.
[Fact is Joyce DID predict the US default.]
Do you have a source or reference for that? If true, the actual default still hasn’t happened, so if a deal is now done Barnaby will be WRONG! Of course, if it was one of those vague, time unspecified “predictions” that the US will default some day, then it is meaningless.
A stopped clock will be right twice a day, Barnaby Joyce perhaps less often.
[Henry replied that wtte that although unlikely, this was not the time and place to discuss it. Left me with the impression that Henry thought he might be right but did not want to encourage panic. Journos were too thick or lazy to get the whole pictur]
daretotread – you posted what I was asking. Thanks. It seems quite a few are now speaking out about the danger of whipping up ‘panic’.
mysay – I emailed him. He doesn’t like my facts so doesn’t read them out.
Before we turn Barnaby Joyce into a financial oracle, 3 things:
1. The USA hasn’t defaulted on it’s debt (yet)
2. If they do it will be due to a crisis in the US political system (exacerbated by the Tea Party). I don’t remember Joyce saying anything about this.
3. When Joyce made the claim, a number of economic journalists agreed with him (Stephen Long comes to mind). It was the claim that Queensland would default that he got ridiculled for
BB @ 2463
[written by one “Gregg D. Thompson” from Brisbane]
Sadly I know this character through my years of involvement in amateur astronomy.
He is a graphic artist and has no formal qualifications in science whatsoever. He does have an amazing talent for self-promotion however.
I received his document via 3 seperate sources and have also written a rebuttal (which I’m happy to make available if anyone’s interested).
OK I found the Joyce US Debt default prediction reference, but it is funny rather than flattering. Here are some other interesting thoughts from that interview:
[He has also proposed that the Federal Government should introduce laws allowing it to break up the assets of the four main banks – and use them to force banks to hold down interest rates.
”You don’t even have to break them apart,” he said. ”But you have to suggest to them that those powers could be in place to do that if they aren’t more diligent in how they respect the Australian community.”]
Does Barnaby still think breaking up Aussie banks is a good idea?
[In an interview with The Age, Senator Joyce said he did not want to alarm the public, but there needed to be a debate about Australia’s ”contingency plan” for a sovereign debt default by the US or even by an Australian state government.]
No Australian State or Federal government has ever defaulted, even in the depression.
[”A default by the US means complete economic collapse around the world and the question we have got to ask ourselves is where are we in that?” he said.]
Really?
[Joyce’s Armageddon warning
Mark Davis
December 11, 2009
Comments 6
Dumped from finance post … Maverick Nationals Senator Barnaby Joyce.
The Opposition’s new finance spokesman, Barnaby Joyce, has warned of an ”economic Armageddon” if the US Government defaults on its debt. Photo: Glen McCurtayne
TONY Abbott’s new finance spokesman, Barnaby Joyce, believes the American Government may default on its debt, triggering an ”economic Armageddon” that will make the recent global financial crisis pale into insignificance.
He has also proposed that the Federal Government should introduce laws allowing it to break up the assets of the four main banks – and use them to force banks to hold down interest rates.
”You don’t even have to break them apart,” he said. ”But you have to suggest to them that those powers could be in place to do that if they aren’t more diligent in how they respect the Australian community.”
Advertisement: Story continues below
Senator Joyce came under attack from several ministers, including Treasurer Wayne Swan, who said he had been elevated ”straight from the reactionary fringe of our economic debate to the second most senior economic policy-making job in the alternative government”.
In an interview with The Age, Senator Joyce said he did not want to alarm the public, but there needed to be a debate about Australia’s ”contingency plan” for a sovereign debt default by the US or even by an Australian state government.
”A default by the US means complete economic collapse around the world and the question we have got to ask ourselves is where are we in that?” he said.
He said the chances of a US debt default were distant but real, and politicians were not doing the electorate a favour by refusing to acknowledge the risk.
Senator Joyce first warned of America defaulting at a Senate estimates hearing in October where he asked Treasury secretary Ken Henry for his views.
Dr Henry warned then that public figures had to be careful about discussing ”hypotheticals that are that extreme” because such discussions could be misinterpreted in the community.
Rather than tempering his language since his promotion, Senator Joyce has stepped up the rhetoric, saying he also had concerns that some states would have trouble repaying their borrowings.
”The first thing you tell a new client is exactly where they are. We have to tell the Australian people precisely where they are,” said the former accountant from the Queensland town of St George.
”The Federal Government has $115.7 billion in debt, Australian government securities, notes and bonds on issue, and the states have another $170 billion in debt,” Senator Joyce said.
”We have to ask whether the states have the capacity to repay that. I would say in some instances they do not – particularly Queensland.”]
Australian government debt is 6% of GDP – the lowest in the OECD.
[”If America collapses there will be no more sale of Chinese products to America and therefore very little purchase of Australian resources by China.”]
Rubbish. A US default would mean a delay in repayments. The US still has enormous wealth, they just can’t agree in government on how to tax it. America is Australia’s fifth largest trading partner. Over 80% of Chinese production is now for domestic Chinese demand.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/joyces-armageddon-warning-20091210-km90.html
Save us (from) Barnaby.
[Fact is Joyce DID predict the US default.]
I thought he predicted Australia to default ?
[In February 2010 Joyce declared that Australia was “going to hock to our eyeballs to people overseas” and was “getting to a point where we can’t repay it”. ]
[Barnaby Joyce claimed today that Australia is in imminent danger of defaulting on its government debt.]
http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2010/s2814770.htm
Sorry about the repeat quote. Spur, you said it faster and better than I.
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans
STOP abbott CUT AND RUN ON THE CARBON POLLUTION TAX DEBATE #auspol
2 minutes ago
http://www.smh.com.au/business/baby-boomers-wealth-effect-hits-the-retailers-20110731-1i6dh.html
Ross Gittens today!
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans
Has Obama sold out to keep his arse? #debtceiling
1 minute ago
Good article, the same happening here of course, worth tweeting to journos as I think comparisons to the USA are hitting home at the moment, more so than attacking bias directly…
http://www.thenation.com/blog/162434/tiny-tea-party-rally-vs-large-progressive-rally-which-gets-more-beltway-ink
Tiny Tea Party Rally vs. Large Progressive Rally: Which Gets More Beltway Ink?
Leslie Savan
July 29, 2011
Yesterday, an American Dream Movement rally demanding a debt deal that “protects seniors and makes corporations and the rich pay [their] fair share” drew a significantly larger crowd than a Tea Party rally a day earlier that essentially demanded the opposite. Both were held on Capitol Hill, both focused on the same ginned-up debt ceiling “crisis,” but you’d be hard-pressed to find the Beltway media noting the difference in crowd size—or even reporting on the progressive rally at all.
Misfit,
For you:
[SpaceKidette Space Kidette
@andrewlamingMP PM JG visited Macmillan electorate, held by Lib Russell Broadbent, on July 16 The carbon price was announced on July 10
]
US has two choices. Default now or die the death of a thousand cuts (relative value of USD continues its path down toilet bowl, continuous printing leads to loss of confidence in currency followed by…….). Either way it is beyond the point of return. Unless an alien planet turns up wanting to do massive amounts of trade with earthlings. The US needs to print money just to pay its interest. And since congress is run and owned by corporate/ banking America you wont see any massive winding back in defence spending, or any harm come to major banks.
All the dominoes are lined up now. Just a matter of when and what pushes the first over.
The song and dance over the raising of the debt limit shouldn’t be a focus on the possibility of short term default but on how on earth can the US ever not keep printing money apart from another global war.
Scorps,
[ Whether they like to admit it or not, the modern tenets of marketing and advertising have their basis in the Hitlers propaganda practices.
I reckon the Naz!s just polished up the strategies that the churches had been using for the previous 1500 years.]
Yep! You are right. How could I possibly forget. 🙁 😉
Joyce predicting the US debt crisis is not clever. They didn’t fix the problems that caused the GFC they just threw money at it to mask the symptoms. It was always a festering sore that was bound to show its ugly head at some point the question was just when.
This time around they are about to do the same thing but it still wont solve the underlying problems so they are bound to relive the situation again, in six months if the Repugs get their way.
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans
Obama has caved in and sold out to the Repugs especially on taxing the rich #debtceiling
now
[The most frustrating thing about the U.S. debt crisis is how partisan the debate has become. ]
I don’t think partisanship is the problem so much as what’s become defined as ‘bipartisan’. You can only wonder how reforming presidents like FDR would feel about the state the country is now in. Afterall, he was the man who coined (in 1936!) “We know now that Government by organized money is just as dangerous as Government by organized mob.”