On voting intention, the latest Newspoll is no worse for Labor than usual: they trail the Coalition 55-45 on two-party preferred, their primary vote is down a point to 30 per cent, and the Coalition and the Greens are steady on 46 per cent and 11 per cent respectively. However, it seems just about every poll has an added sting in the tail for Julia Gillard these days, and this one finds her recording yet another slump on her personal ratings, which are now at a disastrous 28 per cent approval and 62 per cent disapproval. Tony Abbott by contrast is up four points on approval to 39 per cent, although his disapproval remains steady at a thoroughly unimpressive 52 per cent. Worst of all for Gillard, Abbott now leads her as preferred prime minister for the first time: 40 per cent to 39 per cent, compared with Gillard’s 41-38 lead last time.
The latest weekly Essential Research survey also has the Coalition 55-45 in front, from primary votes of 48 per cent for the Coalition (up one), 32 per cent for Labor (down one) and 11 per cent for the Greens (down one). It too has its own particular sting for Julia Gillard, finding Labor would be leading 53-47 if Kevin Rudd was leader from primary votes of 45 per cent for Labor and 42 per cent for the Coalition. However, it also finds the Coalition would be much further ahead (59-41) under Malcolm Turnbull than Tony Abbott, so it is likely there is a fair bit of mischief-making by partisan respondents going on. Nonetheless, it is hard to overlook the fact that there is an eight-point difference in the results for the two Labor contenders against a four-point difference for the Liberals.
UPDATE: Kevin Bonham in comments, responding to the assertion of Dennis Shanahan in The Australian that “only Paul Keating has had a worse personal rating than Gillard’s today”:
Depends how you measure it, but:
• If measured by net satisfaction there have been 18 worse results. One by Howard in 2001, one by Hawke in 1991 and the other sixteen by Keating, but six of Keating’s were before the election that he won. This is also true if measured by disapproval rating.
• If measured by approval rating there have been 19 worse results. One by Hawke and eighteen by Keating with eight of Keating’s before the election that he won.
[Is the msm saying this, or is it just the Sydney shockjocks?]
I first heard it by one coalit — don;t remember who — some months back
[Anyone who lived through that time knows very well this government has very few, if any, of the problems Whitlam’s government had.]
Except for an equally toxic media and if anything an even more un-gentlemanly opposition.
[Can you imagine running a country based on Katter agreeing with you and keeping on voting for you? We laugh at Bachmann and Palin but Katter is just as bad, although not as nasty.]
Diogs, agreed.
Katter has spoken some sense over the cattle cruelty issue. Some of his other views are ‘out there’, such as his views on climate change. I don’t think he’d back a carbon price regardless of who was PM.
The the “citizens assembly” was a blatant do nothing policy.A return all the way back to square one, after all the progress and discussion that caused even Howard to have an ETS policy.
The work had already been done, that there would be some sort of policy taking action accepted in the public’s mind.
With this progress having been made Gillard comes out with a the “citizens assembly” and this in the face of the assertion that it was Rudd’s shelving the ETS that cost Labor poll support.
Gillard’s the “citizens assembly” was an attempt to retrace and take the public perception and expectations backwards.
the “citizens assembly” = total joke.
[The biggest failing for Labor last year was not selling the good story about the economy, it was barely mentioned in the election campaign – why, I wonder?]
Why just last year? Was that sold properly at the time ie 2008-9? If it had then selling it during the election campaign would have been a soda.
zoomster@5235
Anyway, fortunately the CA is gone to the place it deserves to be, and we are about to get, on current indications, carbon action better than the CPRS. That makes me very happy, as it should all people who believe policy based on the best advice.
Thank you Greens and Indies. Hopefully, Gillard will be able to convince voters that she really wants to do this now.
‘The worse than Whitlam’ line has been around on sites like The Punch and was originally applied to Rudd.
[it was barely mentioned in the election campaign – why, I wonder?]
Probably because Rudd ran dead on it when he was PM. Worse, even bowing to the news ltd/shockjock hysteria. If Rudd had properly defended his record as PM, instead of apologising for economic stimulus packages such as the HIP and BER, it would’ve enabled the govt to rightly claim these initiatives as important measures which kept Australians in work. Instead, Rudd endorsed the hysteria from the OO and Ray Hadley. The rest, as they say is history.
evan14
Thank goodness the govt is not taking advice from you. Perhaps you should turn your attention to advising Abbott. He is in all sorts of trouble.
EVAN
i will break my own vow
katter and rudd do indeed have a special relationship
it goes back to their respective granpappy’s
‘The worse than Whitlam’ line has been around on sites like The Punch and was originally applied to Rudd.]
The Whitlam government was a better government than the Fraser and McMahon governments.
[The make-up of the parliament and the input of the Greens has forced Julia to go further than she ever imagined she could. I believer Julia has grown into the role and found a self-belief she did not have at the beginning of her term of office. Now faced with the barrage of opposition to her policies from the reactionary right, PM Gillard is standing her ground and we will see the ETS enacted. ]
🙂
That and that in the current climate there are different opportunities that can be taken and still considered ‘pragmatic’.
One thing I think is absolutely hilarious — the new coalition of antiCT types (Minerals council & such) seem to think they will water down or stop the CT.
I think they are in for a rude shock if they think they’ll have any clout once the MPCCC come up with their final plan. That’ll be the negotiated basis for legislation. Labor/Greens & Indies will back in HOR. Labor & Greens (& perhaps a few others) will back in Senate.
Done deal. Let them waste their advertising dollars — less money to give the libs for an election.
And I do hope the Libs have no bikkies …they must have thought that if they could force an election now, it wouldn’t cost a cent because media has funnelled all their talking points.
This again points to the total stupidity and amateur nature of the conspirators against Rudd. Any positives from the first part of the term could not be claimed in an election campaign since they would be clearly associated with Rudd, especially the saving of the economy from recession. Thus they had almost nothing to talk about or take credit for.
Gillard rushed to an election in the hope of taking advantage of a honeymoon which she basically never got, or the honeymoon was in the fashion of the polls not dropping as much as they would have because of the knifing. In the end she was sinking so fast that another week or two and she would have lost the election outright.
The arrogance and amateur ability of the back room conspirators is astonishing. Not only for the awful campaign but their thinking that knifing a PM in the same position as most PMs before him (who went on to win) would lead to a leap in the polls and to victory, or wouldn’t do them damage in Qld.
These guys were desperate, and it wasn’t anything to do with a big nasty Rudd.
To try and separate this government from the Rudd government is really stretching it.
[The arrogance and amateur ability of the back room conspirators is astonishing. Not only for the awful campaign but their thinking that knifing a PM in the same position as most PMs before him (who went on to win) would lead to a leap in the polls and to victory, or wouldn’t do them damage in Qld.]
hmmm
if that was true- kudos
But Tp you fail to understand what really happened
why do you percieve things from the light of an “assasination”
the reality is way more mundane
ps kev is way happier as FM than PM
“Worse than Whitlam’ is a non-sequitor.
Whitlam was a great reformist prime minister. That was bad in the eyes of a lot of people. But who can forget the decisions made by the interim executive duumvirate of Whitlam and Barnard in the period before the full ministry was sworn in after the 1972 election. We can rest absolutely assured Gillard is not suffering for the same reason.
Compare and contrast:
http://www.eurekastreet.com.au/article.aspx?aeid=1391
Fantastic stuff.
btw
youngest just asked me re lateline
“why are they supporting the liberals?”
from the mouth of babes…..
monckton just freaked him out
he reckons monckton has abbotts ears
😉
Gusface
I am watching aussie rules. What is the go on LL?
Thomas Paine
Posted Wednesday, June 23, 2010 at 9:58 pm | Permalink
It would be grossly unfair if Rudd got dumped. Then again I don’t think politics is anything to do with fair. No room for sentiment, just win and lose.
Fairly good Lateline coverage on today’s events.
Alli said the Rally numbered in the 100s. Clips of Barnaby and Parrot and Angry A showed them saying the ridiculous stuff.
Then showed Abbott and his economist comment — and a comment plucked from Monckton (showed Monckton as well — reinforcing his ‘otherness’)
The resident economist Long summarised the economist event with clarity and explained CT versus Direct Action simply as well.
Pleased — shame so few will see it!
vic
started with barnyard lovein
then went to monckton
now chatting about afghani
ps youngest has gone to beddy byes
reckons monckton is a cgi character
jenauthor@5268
I agree entirely. They are swaggering around like only Mitch Hooke knows because of the Rudd demise last time. They may not realise there were other forces at play then within the party. Not on this occasion.
I thoroughly enjoyed Windsor’s offhand put-down of the big money bullies today.
jenauthor
Appreciate the report. At least the ABC is being balanced for a change!
jen
are we watching the same program?
Now of course the Ditch the witch are nasty but I do recall when young walking behind banners saying “Swing with Ming” (Menzies who for the young ones pronounced his name Mingus a la Scottish)
Also “Lynch Bury, Bury Lynch” I am sure people if honest will think of others. Thought they were hilarious at the time
Now sexism is appalling but wishing death on your opponents is a bit nasty too.
Guess I am saying lighten up. Politicians need to be able to handle nasty rhymes and slogans and vicious cartoons. If they cannot then Australian politics is not the place for them.
Mind you while I think witch is just OK, bitch is one step too far for me.
Gusface
Monckton is a dead ringer for Marty Feldman.
Just watched Ali and Stephen Long on Lateline shoot down TA’s economic crap.
SL said TA was talkinfg economic rubbish with his direct act crap.
restoers some small faith in their ABC
Whitlam was indeed a great reformer. One of his greatest decisions was free university education. A whole generation of people became the first in their families to get tertiary education. It broke the back of the social and political divide between the professions and the trades. We then had Labor Doctors, Labor Lawyers, many of our best teachers, nurses and engineers were from that great flowering of intellectual thought. And political leaders and academics.
They used to argue that the wealthy were wealthy because they were smarter. When you let people go to uni based on intelligence and not wealth it turns out not to be true. The rich kids weren’t getting into the elite professions. That it was why it was so important for Howard to destroy the universities. That is why we had to have the ‘culture wars’.
[jaundiced view
Posted Friday, July 1, 2011 at 8:22 pm | Permalink
This little black duck@5111
This Labor government, with the support of others, is progressive, not Right or Left.
I think you mean:
“This Labor government is transparently pragmatic right, with elements of DLP religiosity; but because of the necessity of agreements with the Greens and independents to govern in minority, it has been forced to act on carbon against its will.”]
You’re really rather begrudging, aren’t you? How are you to know that acting on carbon is “against its will”? Isn’t it just as equally likely that running away from it was “against its will” but necessary because of the “Lindsay test”? The fact is, the focus groups matter less because forming a government and surviving matter more.
And surely that is a good thing. Windsor and Oakeshott at least listen to their electorates rather than try to do it from market research, which a lot of the time mostly just echoes what is the media meme anyway. The actions are surely bringing us a little closer to representative government.
Good policy is good policy, whether formed from ideals or from necessity.
Political hardheads both here and abroad have long known that action is required but in political survival terms it is probably suicidal, especially to an opposing negative campaign. We are seeing the risks in the current polling and in the recent Canadian elections. It doesn’t mean that something shouldn’t be done, but it isn’t easy. We cannot afford to leave the world to sort itself in the way the Americans have abandoned their public health administration to the lobbyists.
I think it’s cynical to assume the Gillard-Greens-Independents alliance isn’t based on goodwill from all those contributing to it. It still has yet to deliver, and political necessity will probably make it a little less effective than most would like, but there are a variety of interests being brought together.
Did anyone else catch Abbott on the ABC News referring to the carbon tax as a form of socialism?
He’s getting his lines from Lord Monkton and Alan Jones.
Combet ought to have plenty of material for QT next week!
[I thoroughly enjoyed Windsor’s offhand put-down of the big money bullies today.]
Didn’t see JV — what’d he say?
Yes indeed, that’s my personal story. If it hadn’t been for that decision I doubt I would have been first teacher then lawyer.
Not to mention Gough also taking the excise off home brew beer. 😀
[jen
are we watching the same program?]
Lateline Gus. They played it straight — that is all I ask.
jen
sorry
if my youngest can pick up the bias………
btw
words arent as powerful as images
the rally pics will reasonate
🙁
Better fortunes for British Labour:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/jul/01/labour-stunning-inverclyde-byelection-victory
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jul/01/strauss-kahn-sex-assault-case-collapse
[Did anyone else catch Abbott on the ABC News referring to the carbon tax as a form of socialism?
He’s getting his lines from Lord Monkton and Alan Jones.]
“Socialism disguised as environmentalism” is Abbott’s often repeated line. I’ve heard him use it on at least three occasions, including in parliament.
Gough Whitlam is a hero to my family. His reforms enabled my Mum to get a job as a school librarian from which she never looked back. She grew like a big strong tree getting that chance. The punishers and the straighteners would have denied her that chance. More fool them.
[Whitlam was indeed a great reformer. One of his greatest decisions was free university education.]
My mother was a beneficiary, the first in her family to gain a university degree. I imagine there were many working class families with experiences like mum’s.
grey
woohooo
go the librarian’s
(thats from swmbo)
yep gough cut the fibs at the base
anyone could someone
not just the ahem chosen few
howards white picket fence wasnt just an appeal to fifty’s values, it was an appeal to the days of master and slave
[victoria
Posted Friday, July 1, 2011 at 10:45 pm | Permalink
Gusface
Monckton is a dead ringer for Marty Feldman.]
That’s it! That’s what’s been tickling the back of my mind everytime I see him!
jenauthor
I couldn’t find the original ABC source for Windsor’s response to the campaign, but this is form the Aus:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/climate/industry-mobilises-in-carbon-tax-battle/story-e6frg6xf-1226085468665
Shorter version of abbott today – his family jewels are in the vice and its getting tighter.
No wonder his voice is going up octaves.
Monckton also reminds me of Syd from the Ice Age movies: http://bit.ly/dtenai
Gweneth @ 5285
[A whole generation of people became the first in their families to get tertiary education.]
I’m one of them Gweneth (albeit not until nearly a decade later) and very thankful I got the opportunity.
Econocrat
Good one!!