Nielsen: 59-41 to Coalition

The Sydney Morning Herald reports the latest Nielsen survey has robbed a Morgan phone poll conducted a fortnight ago of its distinction as the only poll showing the Coalition’s lead reaching the heights of 59-41. Nielsen has the Labor primary vote at just 27 per cent – “the lowest level ever for a major party in the poll’s history of almost four decades” – with the Coalition at 49 per cent. No result has been provided for the Greens at this stage. Last month’s Nielsen poll had the Coalition lead at 56-44, with primary votes of 31 per cent for Labor, 47 per cent for the Coalition and 12 per cent for the Greens. More detail presumably to follow.

UPDATE: In anticipation of a Morgan face-to-face poll which didn’t arrive, I prepared a chart earlier today showing how both Morgan face-to-face and Essential had converged upon the Newspoll trend over the last year or two after traditionally having been more favourable to Labor. I did this by producing quarterly averages for each agency’s polling going back to the start of 2009. I didn’t bother to include Nielsen as it reports far less frequently and is thus more prone to variability. But Nielsen’s habits relative to other pollsters would seem to have become a live issue as of half an hour ago, so now I have. And as you can see, Nielsen seems to have gone very sour for Labor of late: whereas the other pollsters have been broadly consistent around 54-46, the last three Nielsen results have been 56-44, 56-44 again and now 59-41. “Morgan (RA)” and “Morgan (PE)” refer to their respondent-allocated and previous-election methods of allocating minor party/independent preferences, which tells a story of its own.

UPDATE 2: GhostWhoVotes reports the poll has a dizzying 60 per cent now favouring Kevin Rudd for Labor leader against just 31 per cent for Julia Gillard. We are also informed the Greens primary vote is on 12 per cent, up two from last time.

UPDATE 3: It now emerges that Tony Abbott is equal with Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister on 46 per cent, the first time Abbott has achieved this. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is down six to 37 per cent and her disapproval up seven to 59 per cent, while Tony Abbott is up one on approval to 46 per cent and steady on disapproval at 50 per cent. These all entail remarkably low undecided results: perhaps this is a feature of Nielsen I’ve just never noticed before.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,857 comments on “Nielsen: 59-41 to Coalition”

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  5. [I think you’ll find that was long before Gillard agree it could be called a tax.]

    Garry@3751 – I stand corrected. Thanks. I remember now that it was Abbott and others who goaded the journo into getting the word out of the PM.

  6. [Rudd didn’t have a clear mandate for the CPRS. There were no details or targets given at election time.]

    Exactly. It’s what makes claims of ‘mandates’ silly. Parties elected to Government should just get on with doing whatever they believe is in the best interests of the country regardless of what vague statements they made 1/2/3 years ago.

  7. LATIKAMBOURKE | 8 minutes ago
    [Officials from Aus and NZ will work on linking each countries Emissions Trading Schemes says PM JG.]

  8. ltep: I think he has a visceral fear of the public looking past his BS and discovering the truth.

    Remember that he is a man who is an almost instinctive liar. He tells people what he thinks they want to hear, regardless of whether he believes it himself or whether or not he knows it to be the truth.

    Why do you think he only wants to deliver slogans rather than discuss policy detail? Details are where truths and facts lie. And exposure of the electorate to facts is not something that is in Abbott’s best interests.

  9. george

    Mr Keys and Ms Gillard on now, enjoying a bit of light-hearted banter about eating apples. The spirit is obviously excellent.

    First question a beauty for Ms Gillard. It enabled her to draw attention to the way in which the kiwis had the ‘guts’ to introduce an ETS.

  10. For those spotchecking the ABC online here are some of the prominent links at the moment:

    “Vote call
    Tony Abbott’s push for a non-binding, multi-million-dollar plebiscite on the carbon tax is a “last-minute stunt”, according to Labor frontbencher Anthony Albanese.”: http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/06/20/3248095.htm

    Scientists hit back amid fresh death threats: http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/06/20/3248032.htm

    http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/2764446.html with a serious riposte of Nauru

    Stephen Mayne’s rubbishing of the OO’s disposal of Overland

    http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/2764018.html

  11. Howdy bludgers,

    loved albo’s line about Abbott chucking a dummy spit. I think that is an angle the govt should run with. Portray Abbott as a baby and dummy spitter and get it coming from every minister and backbencher for weeks and weeks non-stop. They need to sow the seeds now for an image of Abbott in the future, as his constant whinging continues.

    Tweet, emal MPs and get it out there!

  12. [If Ms Gillard has begun by resisting the notion that it is a ‘tax’ then it would have been fairly obvious to all concerned that she was trying to avoid calling a spade a spade.]

    Exactly. There are legal definitions of what a tax is, and the carbon tax almost definitely will fall within those terms. Word play won’t detract from that and the public really aren’t that stupid.

  14. [ABCnewsIntern ABCnewsIntern
    What’s this about “ANZEC”, John Key? Australia & New Zealand Equestrian Corps?
    ]

  15. LATIKAMBOURKE | 2 minutes ago
    [PM JG says if the Kiwis have had the guts to price carbon we should and will, and catch up to NZ.]

  16. Boerwar

    Problem is the difference between the spoken and the written word. I think the Committee should take out directors’ insurance in case of untrue accusations.

  20. lizzie

    Quite right.

    I have referred your proposal to Boerwar, Finns & Co for advice (to be paid for at the usual rates and in advance.)

  21. “In this context I would remind posters that less than two hours ago Mr Albanese was telling anyone who cared to listen that the Government wants to tax the big polluters while the Opposition wants to tax ordinary Australians. Could it be possible that Mr Albanese has not been reading his Bludgers closely enough?”

    Couldn’t find anything where Gillard used the term “carbon tax” we might gather from this switch, Boerwar. You are very obvious, you know.

  22. [Clarke_Melissa Melissa Clarke
    NZ PM John Key says their capped carbon price costs each household about $150 per year.
    ]

  23. Thanks. It doesn’t seem to have seeped through the Opposition or media Cheer-squads’ heads.

    You want any research (not good at economics or commerce) just ask.

  25. [geeksrulz geeksrulz
    Liberal Party still in mourning after losing the Federal Election 2010. Wear black to join them here: on.fb.me/jOix86 #auspol
    ]

  26. [Mr Keys and Ms Gillard on now, enjoying a bit of light-hearted banter about eating apples. The spirit is obviously excellent.

    First question a beauty for Ms Gillard. It enabled her to draw attention to the way in which the kiwis had the ‘guts’ to introduce an ETS.]

    Awesome, thanks Boers

  30. [theburgerman John Bergin
    Senator Bob Brown to respond to carbon price plebiscite – live on #SkyNews at 1.30pm AEST.
    ]

  31. THEBURGERMAN | 2 minutes ago
    [Senator Bob Brown to respond to carbon price plebiscite – live on #SkyNews at 1.30pm AEST.]

  32. Benji, OPT
    Makes sense to me. Mr Keys and Ms Gillard lead parties that would normally be opposites. What a breath of fresh air to hear political leaders talk calm, common sense.
    It is possible after all.

  39. Mmmm. Mr Ludwig received footage of sheep being mistreated last year. He handed this over to the cattle industry. They responded in March ‘inadequate’ and then May still ‘inadequate’.

    wtf?

    Was Mr Ludwig asleep at the wheel? The live trade industry certainly has been asleep at the wheel.

    How klutzment.

  41. tsop
    They have rejected it, calling it a ‘stunt’.

    The question is, will Mr Abbott receive the sobriquet of ‘stuntman’ and will it stick?

  42. Whether current leadership speculation is a beat up or not, in my view the issue is not whether some on here are being taken in by the spin, rather it’s the currency the issue is receiving in the MSN – perceptions meaning a lot to those who aren’t media savvy.

  46. Ah, just Tony talking out of his arse again. Good.

    A plebiscite would inevitably fail and would murder Labor, as the left would blame Labor for its loss and the right would still be convinced that Labor were gonna try and push it through, while the middle will see the government as too weak and unable to get anything done.

  47. Looks like those who suggest conservatives have no sense of humour are right – an Obama impersonator (comedian Reggie Brown) was taken off stage at the Republican party convention in the US after starting to make jokes about the Tea Party.
    [Mr Brown then turned his attention to President Obama, saying the president was born in Hawaii, “or, as the Tea Partyers call it, Kenya”….

    When Mr Brown launched into a gag about Tea Party stalwart Michele Bachmann, his microphone was cut off, the music swelled and the comedian was ushered from the stage.]
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-13834179

    Well I thought it was funny 🙂

  48. [abcnews: Live on #abcnews24: Independent MP Tony Windsor says he will not support carbon tax plebiscite ]

    so in other words get lost abbott

  50. Not sure who this joker is, but apparently Latika thought it was worth a retweet:

    [ScottBuchholzMP Scott Buchholz
    by latikambourke
    Scott Buchholz MP calls on Australians to wear black on June 24 – Gillard’s 1st anniversary – to mark death of fiscal responsibility #auspol]

    My response:

    [@ScottBuchholzMP As opposed to Abbott’s idea of fiscal responsibility, which is to get pissed and sleep through the stimulus bill! #auspol]

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