Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition; Essential Research: 54-46

Relatively good news for Labor from Newspoll, which shows the Coalition’s eight point two-party lead cut to four. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 34 per cent and the Coalition down two to 44 per cent, while the Greens have shot up four points to 14 per cent. Two points of this gain seems to be a correction after an anomaly last time; it could be that the other two show there’s some sort of an audience for criticism of News Limited. Personal ratings are essentially unchanged: Gillard’s approval up one to 35 per cent, disapproval down one to 54 per cent, Abbott is down one to 37 per cent and up two to 53 per cent, and Gillard’s preferred prime minister lead is up from 42-38 to 44-37. Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.

Today’s Essential Research wasn’t as kind to Labor, though the different time frames should be noted: Newspoll was conducted from Friday to Sunday, whereas the survey period for the more recent half of the Essential result covered Wednesday to Sunday. The Coalition lead was up from 53-47 to 54-46, but since the primary votes were unchanged (Coalition 47 per cent, Labor 34 per cent, Greens 12 per cent), there is obviously not much in this. The poll also turned up another painful personal result for Gillard, who trails Kevin Rudd as preferred Labor leader by 32 per cent to 23 per cent. Malcolm Turnbull likewise leads Tony Abbott, but by a lesser margin of 25 per cent to 22 per cent. As usual, Rudd and Turnbull secured their leads off the back of supporters of the other party.

We also get results on which party represents the interests of various groups, which show Labor holding modest leads for various manifestions of Joe Public and the Liberals maintaining brand recognition as the party of business and the wealthy. The Liberals however hold an interesting 31 per cent to 19 per cent lead on “the next generation of Australians”, which I can only assume represents a belief they will leave them with less debt. Yet another question on support for the carbon tax finds a spike in its favour last week to have been aberration: support is down three to 38 per cent and opposition up four to 48 per cent, almost exactly where it was two polls ago. On the question of whether an early election should be held as a result of the carbon tax, opinion is perfectly evenly divided on 42 per cent, with “yes” up two and “no” down two since the question was last asked in March.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,386 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition; Essential Research: 54-46”

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  1. Okay, Joe. So instead of imposing a tax on carbon (good traditional conservative type of policy), what do you suggest – a dose of socialist central planning control? We all know direct action won’t work (see Malcolm Turnbull) so that’s your only alternative.

  2. [shellbell

    Posted Thursday, June 2, 2011 at 3:42 pm | Permalink

    Frank

    Do you know why Mallard got so much more dough?
    ]

    Good question – especially as the Beamish matter has been chugging along slowly.

  3. Thanks, Antony Green.
    The insipid Tony Smith (Casey) has had his majority over Labor halved by the redistribution. Now only 1.9%. So I’m back in a swinging seat again!
    Rob Mitchell (Labor, McEwen) has potentially increased his majority from 5% to 9%.
    Things have really been moved around in the outer north east.

    You’ll all be gratified to know that Mirabella still has a potential majority of 9% 🙁

  4. Mallard I think was associated with demonstrated concealment of information from the defence which might be one reason

  5. [Did the Rabbott threaten Combet?]

    Dee

    He must have said something. Combet “I’m not afraid of you mate. You’ll have no clothes left on.”

  6. The government should make it habit to walk out of the chamber en masse whenever Tony embarks on a mindless spray.

    Just stand outside the doors until he has decided to STFU and then come back in again.

    It would be fun to watch – especially that vein in Tony’s neck that is wont to bulge alarmingly when he gets overexcited. 😉

  7. confessions

    His nice little suburban electorate based around Croydon has been extended to include Healesville and the Upper Yarra Valley, quite a different kettle of fish and a much larger area. He’s going to have to work hard.
    So far, he hasn’t made a ripple around here, but he’s probably biding his time 😉

  8. [A federal parliamentary committee has delivered a scathing rebuke to the Murray-Darling Basin Authority and its recommendations on water cutbacks in the basin.

    The inquiry was set up in the wake of an angry regional response to the authority’s plans to reduce water allocations.

    The committee, chaired by independent MP Tony Windsor, was told river communities faced annihilation if 4,000 gigalitres was returned to the environment.

    Mr Windsor says the health of the river system can be protected without the cuts.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/06/02/3233832.htm

  9. [PollyticsPossum Comitatus

    Combet has nailed these clowns – he’s seen more than his fair share of this sort of unhinged populism!

    1 minute agoFavoriteRetweetReply]

    Notice Joe concentrated on the Hospitality Industry – worried about job losses at KFC ? 🙂

  10. Blackdog
    The Rabbott looked like he was seething. Walked out, then came back, looked like he wanted to punch Combet.
    That’s when Combet reacted as he did.
    Would love to know what threat Rabbott made to Combet.

  11. lizzie:

    He was incredibly lazy as shadow communications minister, so I’m guessing he’d be an equally lazy MP. Labor should preselect an enthusiastic go-getter – you never know your luck!

  12. Dee

    It was great stuff from Combet. He really gets under Abbott’s skin. It was a shame we couldn’t hear what Abbott said.

  13. I came home halfway through QT and was interested in PB comments on Harry losing control.
    Not very happy with Swan, who really does tend to stray from the question and could be more punchy. Don’t they know that they don’t *have* to fill their full minutes??
    And is Albo deaf or rebellious when Harry says “sit”?

  14. Someone’s is noticing:-

    [Not all news is good news
    June 2, 2011 – 2:50PM
    Comments 37

    Re-tooled … 7.30’s co-hosts Chris Uhlmann and Leigh Sales replaced Kerry O’Brien.
    The ABC’s current affairs flagship is failing, writes Craig Mathieson.

    SOMETHING is missing on week nights at 7.30pm on the ABC and it’s not just the word “report”.

    The retooled 7.30 is misfiring: the public broadcaster’s current affairs flagship is suffering the effects of a belated and blotchy start to the year as it comes to grips with the generational change invoked by the departure of Kerry O’Brien. Shortening the name has become a motif for the show’s failings. Something is missing.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/not-all-news-is-good-news-20110602-1fhyc.html#ixzz1O5zCSI2K

  15. G’day Pbers – was in the city all day today. When I got to the train station this morning I realised I didn’t have a single coin/note with me so thought it was a good opportunity to grab a Myki – quite painless, topped it up with cash in a minute and was on my way. While on the train I registered it through the website too. Thank you Labor 😉

  16. [Shortening the name has become a motif for the show’s failings. Something is missing.]

    Quality? Seriousness? Forensic interviewing?

  17. george,

    Sounds like the “Go” Cards we have here in SE QLD.

    Brilliant. Actually the integrated Translink system up here is really good (allowing continuations of fares from train to bus to ferry if forming 1 trip)

    Yeah, those do nothing Labor Guvmints – What have they done for us lately? 😛

  18. I missed Abbotts and Combet’s response. judging by posts and tweets, Combet said something to upset Abbott. Does anyone know?

  19. [Re-tooled … 7.30’s co-hosts Chris Uhlmann and Leigh Sales replaced Kerry O’Brien.]

    Use of that word is very funny.

  20. [alan jones just said wtte ‘rarely does the oppn leader dominate a pm, but tone does’]

    Does he mean dominate or bully, the way he attempts to bully.

    Bet Alan would love to be dominated by Tone 🙂

  21. [ Tony Abbott talks to Alan Jones about carbon tax, the economy and the federal political scene ]

    The room will need to be hosed down afterwards.

  22. victoria
    [I missed Abbotts and Combet’s response. judging by posts and tweets, Combet said something to upset Abbott. Does anyone know?]
    No!
    None of us could hear. But it seems he threatened Combet. Rabbott looked like he was that wild he could hit Combet.
    Judging by what Combet said in response one can only assume that is what he threatened. All assumptions of course!

  23. autocrat,

    [ Re-tooled … 7.30’s co-hosts Chris Uhlmann and Leigh Sales replaced Kerry O’Brien.]

    [Use of that word is very funny.]

    And I suspect, more than simple coincidence that it has been used.

    Considering the reasonable widespread use of it on blogs such as this one. 😉

  24. [adam abdool
    Posted Thursday, June 2, 2011 at 3:59 pm | Permalink

    Someone’s is noticing:- ]

    Adam what is also being noticed is the use of the word re’tool’ed, slight variation on a beloved description used often by Bludgers, of the male host of 7-30. Hardly a coincidence I would think. Proof also that the performance of Mr Toolmann is coming under increasing scrutiny, just how long he can survive with his very poor ratings, must be one of the very important questions demanding an answer.

  25. Perhaps Rabbott got his back up because Combet called him out on his bizaar behaviour, plus, he noted that Rabbott had gagged Turnbull.

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