Morgan: 54.5-45.5 to Coalition

The latest Roy Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s primary vote falling three points to 34 per cent, their worst result in this series since October 1997 (NOTE: Not 2007, as this post read originally). The Coalition is up two to 48 per cent, with the Greens up half a point to 11 per cent. On both the respondent-allocated and previous-election measures of two-party preferred, the Coalition lead is at 54.5-45.5, respectively comparing with 53.5-46.5 and 52-48 last time. Labor can perhaps take some consolation that the Morgan face-to-face pro-Labor bias seems to have alleviated a little since the carbon tax was introduced. Where traditionally this series has had Labor about 3 per cent higher than the phone poll average, it has lately been more like 1 or 2 per cent. This result covers polling from last weekend, encompassing an unusually small sample of 791.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,565 comments on “Morgan: 54.5-45.5 to Coalition”

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  2. [BK

    Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 9:52 pm | Permalink

    TA has clawed back 20 points

    This would make a great subject for a PhD thesis.
    ]

    all due to a speech which was anything but a Budget Reply – more like a Job Interview.

  4. Centre

    Of course, of course. But Abbott’s already done nothing for 18 months and he’s dominating. He doesn’t need to do anything for another 2 years, literally, and he will be the PM.

  6. [gloryconsequence
    Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 9:50 pm | Permalink

    Of course Labor need to hold their nerve, it’s 2 years away etc.

    I’m just saying, people around here keep saying “Oh things will turn against Abbott…”

    Why would they?]

    If he stays Liberal leader and I don’t think he will, it will be the last three weeks before the election that will matter. The weeks when rational people have to decide if they want an irrational idiot running the place.

    Abbott won’t survive the first positive Labor poll. I doubt he will survive July 2011. If the government can’t be brought down by then the Liberals have to start looking at the long haul.

  7. [He doesn’t need to do anything for another 2 years, literally, and he will be the PM.]

    NO!

    Abbott won’t even lead the Fibs 😉

  9. [If he stays Liberal leader and I don’t think he will, it will be the last three weeks before the election that will matter. The weeks when rational people have to decide if they want an irrational idiot running the place.

    Abbott won’t survive the first positive Labor poll. I doubt he will survive July 2011. If the government can’t be brought down by then the Liberals have to start looking at the long haul.]

    Completely ridiculous.

  20. Roll back NBN – Impossible

    Roll back mining tax – Impossible

    Roll back carbon tax – Impossible

    R.I.P. Abbott (in time)!

  21. [gloryconsequence
    Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 9:59 pm | Permalink
    ……
    Completely ridiculous.]

    Time will tell.

    Kevin was the exception, this government is in a traditional position. The polls will change, Abbott is not in a strong enough position to survive.

  23. [2516

    James J

    Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 10:01 pm | Permalink

    GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
    #Newspoll Primary Votes: ALP 33 (0) L/NP 46 (+2) GRN 10 (-2) #auspol
    ]

    small L Green vote goes to Coalition.

    Next…..

  24. It is pleasing to see that the Government has adopted at least a part of the DLP policy for boat people, which is to return them to where they came from, not malaysia, and take 2 refugees in place of every 1 they return, not 5 as is ALP policy, which may not be realastic in the longer term.
    It is heartening to know that the DLP policy has helped resolve in part the boat people issue and move the debate along. And also encougage Thialand, and possibly other countries to participate in this policy

  26. [bk

    nite

    sorry it wasnt better]
    Thanks Gus. It’s about as good as could be expected considering the handicap of the MSM.

  31. fredn

    The Government is in a traditional position half way through a second term, yes – but it’s not a traditional government. Two seats gone and it’s all over.

    The same cries of “Abbott will never be elected” are the same I heard when Howard took over.

  33. Thankyou Victoria
    you left don’t have to worry for two years though….
    independents are as scared (more scared) of an election as Labor.
    unless…. a by-election

  37. Interesting thaty the LIberal Vote increase is at the expense of The Greens, and not Labor.

    Are the $150,000 earners who are Green Voters switching to the Libs cos Brown is backing Labor re removal of their “Welfare” ?

  39. biasdetector

    [Carbon tax reason for the polls]

    I don’t believe that you really believed Julia lied? A competent PM must act according to changing circumstances.

    Did Gillard know she would lead a minority government when she said no carbon tax? NO!

    See, no lie!

    Name another?

  40. gloryconsequence
    [Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 10:04 pm | Permalink

    fredn

    The Government is in a traditional position half way through a second term, yes – but it’s not a traditional government. Two seats gone and it’s all over.

    The same cries of “Abbott will never be elected” are the same I heard when Howard took over.]

    Agreed, but that comes down to the roll of the dice, or more correctly who dies. Now let me have a quick look, which party has failed to renew it’s members.

    I will take the risk and stick with my prediction.

  42. frank the electorate is experiencing what Green government looks like as Labor is force to impose the Greens policies

  45. GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
    #Newspoll Would L/NP have delivered better #Budget for economy: Yes 38 No 41 #auspol

  46. [biasdetector

    Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 10:08 pm | Permalink

    frank the electorate is experiencing what Green government looks like as Labor is force to impose the Greens policies
    ]

    No, it is those Small L libs who defected to the LIObs who are earning $150,000 who are returning to Daddy.

    Labor PV is steady.

  47. [Frank Calabrese
    Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 10:06 pm | Permalink

    Interesting thaty the LIberal Vote increase is at the expense of The Greens, and not Labor.

    Are the $150,000 earners who are Green Voters switching to the Libs cos Brown is backing Labor re removal of their “Welfare” ?]

    Lost faith in margins of errors? Polls are now absolute?

  49. When they talk about Julia being a liar it is straight-out Right Wing Projection. Their own most revered living political figure was dubbed (by Liberals) the Lying Rodent.

  50. Disheartening but not unexpected. Govt needs to keep working hard, and hopefully they will be rewarded for their efforts.

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