Morgan: 54.5-45.5 to Coalition

The latest Roy Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s primary vote falling three points to 34 per cent, their worst result in this series since October 1997 (NOTE: Not 2007, as this post read originally). The Coalition is up two to 48 per cent, with the Greens up half a point to 11 per cent. On both the respondent-allocated and previous-election measures of two-party preferred, the Coalition lead is at 54.5-45.5, respectively comparing with 53.5-46.5 and 52-48 last time. Labor can perhaps take some consolation that the Morgan face-to-face pro-Labor bias seems to have alleviated a little since the carbon tax was introduced. Where traditionally this series has had Labor about 3 per cent higher than the phone poll average, it has lately been more like 1 or 2 per cent. This result covers polling from last weekend, encompassing an unusually small sample of 791.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,565 comments on “Morgan: 54.5-45.5 to Coalition”

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  2. But I think that communication skills are a major problem for Labor, for whatever reason, they can’t properly promote the positive things they’re doing.
    I guess from a progressive point of view, we’ve got to hope that Oakeshott and Windsor aren’t intimidated into switching sides.

  3. [That would simply be on trend. No biggie.]

    What would be bad then? A 44-56 poll is “no biggie”?

    A 47-53 poll or better is needed now to enable the Government to get their message out. Double-digit margins and they can’t cut through.

  5. GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
    @
    @StGusface There is [a Neilsen]. I know the PPM gap has closed further but I don’t have the full results yet.
    1 minute ago

  11. [I think Abbott has finally gone too far.]

    In what way? By continuing what he has been doing for the last 18 months?

    This feeling from these parts that things “will turn” based on nothing isn’t rational.

  17. The very bad polls for Labor should be a sign for Fairfax.

    Their shares now are at around $1.10.

    All centre/left voters are there to be won.

  18. [gloryconsequence
    Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 9:35 pm | Permalink

    I think Abbott has finally gone too far.

    In what way? By continuing what he has been doing for the last 18 months?

    This feeling from these parts that things “will turn” based on nothing isn’t rational.]

    When did politics become rational?

  20. [This feeling from these parts that things “will turn” based on nothing isn’t rational.]

    What an odd thing to say over 2 years out from an election.

  31. 2 years until the next election, everyone on the Labor side needs to hold their nerve and keep pressing on with the agenda.

  32. [cud chewer
    Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 9:41 pm | Permalink

    fredn, one can at least try to rationally predict irrational behaviour.]

    When my wife starts ranting about Abbott’s behaviour he has gone to far. I think that is a pretty rational point of view.

  34. [2 years until the next election, everyone on the Labor side needs to hold their nerve and keep pressing on with the agenda.]
    evan
    Yes – it’s the only game in town.

  42. Of course Labor need to hold their nerve, it’s 2 years away etc.

    I’m just saying, people around here keep saying “Oh things will turn against Abbott…”

    Why would they?

  49. [I’m just saying, people around here keep saying “Oh things will turn against Abbott…”

    Why would they?]
    It’s just that Abbott and his crew have shown absolutely NOTHING of substance – only populist slogans and fear pumping.

  50. French Political events re Straus-Kahn
    ___________________________
    The arrest of Domigue Straus-Kahn at a New York airport today from a flight about the leave for Paris is a remarkable event
    He has been seen as a potential Socialist candidate.for next years presidential election.
    A Millionaire banker ,head of the IMF,but with links to the SP from the time of Mitterand,he was seen as better than the last candidate against Sarkosy,…Segolene Royal,who was a disaster at the polls last time.

    In recent times Sarkosi has plumbed the depths in the polls..even falling behind the National Front’s candidate Marine La Pen ,…daughter of the long-standing neo-fascist Jean Marie La Pen. She is no better than he father .

    Campaigning on the now familiar anti-moslem tactic beloved of such quasi-fascists as Senator Bernardi and Sophie Mirabella from Indi,she had outstripped Sarkosi in recent polls .
    As France has a two-part runoff for the Presidency La Pen may well get the Conservative place in the final ballot if she polls ahead of Sarkosi.

    Thats where the Socialists thought that Straus-Kahn might be winner.

    Though how Millionaire Banker from the notorious IMF(aka The Mafia!) might be a vote winner is hard to see
    Also he is a Jew ,not likely to be a vote winner amongst France’s many moslem voters
    So the arrest in NY will have a major effect on the next French elections…
    all other things aside ,Straus-Kahn is probably dead in the water,wherever happens in the NY courts.
    It not unknown for some women to fake such charges against men so we shall have to wait and see!
    Would the CIA wish to damage him ?? Who knows?
    Wait and see !

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