Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition; Essential Research: 54-46

GhostWhoVotes reports that the latest Newspoll is slightly less bad for Labor than what they’ve been growing accustomed to, with the Coalition lead at 53-47. More on that as it comes to hand. UPDATE: Full tables from GhostWhoVotes. Changes on the primary vote are slighter than the two-party shift (from 55-45 last time) might lead you to expect: Labor up a point to 33 per cent, Coalition down one to 44 per cent, Greens steady on 12 per cent. Tony Abbott’s personal ratings are coming out of a trough, his approval up six to 42 per cent and disapproval down five to 48 per cent. Julia Gillard is down a point on approval to 38 per cent and steady on disapproval at 49 per cent. Better PM has tweaked from 46-37 in Gillard’s favour to 45-36.

We have also had today a status quo result from Essential Research, with two-party preferred at 54-46 (steady), the Coalition on 47 per cent (steady), Labor on 35 per cent (steady) and the Greens on 9 per cent (down one). Other questions related to respondents’ level of interest in federal politics and perceptions of the media, the latter being consistent with past surveys showing public broadcasters favoured over commercial, the media mistrusted generally but not to the same extent as politicians, and partisans of either side as likely as each other to consider the media biased against them.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,270 thoughts on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition; Essential Research: 54-46”

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  1. He question about the republic ask:

    Do you want a Monarchy or that we ELECT a PRESIDENT?

    If the old Osama is still alive, i go for the Caliphate myself.

  3. Greensborough Growler
    Posted Friday, May 6, 2011 at 5:03 pm | Permalink

    bg,

    Iron Ore Chef is a very popular programme as is King Coal a popular name for all our monarchs.

    HRH Gina Rhineheart Queen of the ….

  5. PNG has confirmed it is in talks with Australia over the establishment of a Regional Processing Centre.

    But Manus Island is not the preferred site.

  7. I hope they don’t put in on the Trobriands. There wont be room between the anthropologists and the tribespeople.

  9. Actually Morgan has a phone poll and a F2F poll which are 54-46 and 53.5%-46.5% respectively. I’ve noticed that the Morgan F2F polls are now much the same as the phone polls. They must have recalibrated them.

    Those results are much the same as ER and Newspoll. The polling has been pretty consistent.

  11. deblonay

    Anecdotal evidence from friends and relatives tell me that the fall in ALP standing is widespread….

    That is what I am hearing also.

  12. Anecdotal evidence from friends and relatives tell me that the fall in ALP standing is widespread….

    Very scientific.

  15. Well Gary we each speak from our own experiences and you may get lots of contrary feedback from others. Share it with us!

  16. New laws penalising asylum seekers who damage detention centres will be given priority in the winter sittings of federal parliament.

    The federal government has released a list of 63 bills to be debated in the coming session, which starts with the budget on Tuesday.

    I suppose the coalition will oppose every single one of them.

  17. 3216

    confessions

    Posted Friday, May 6, 2011 at 5:20 pm | Permalink

    New laws penalising asylum seekers who damage detention centres will be given priority in the winter sittings of federal parliament.

    The federal government has released a list of 63 bills to be debated in the coming session, which starts with the budget on Tuesday.

    I suppose the coalition will oppose every single one of them.

    Well they are party of this:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TM18px5Jy4U

  18. THE WEST Australian Goldfields town of Leonora has put its hand up to house more asylum seekers as the government seeks to ease over-crowding at the Christmas Island detention centre.

    The Department of Immigration has flown about 140 asylum seekers from the Christmas Island detention centre to the mainland as it continues to elevate pressure at the facility.

    An Immigration spokesman says 89 detainees were flown to Darwin last night, 51 asylum seekers are expected to arrive at in Leonora later today.

    The new arrivals at Leonora, about 230 kilometres north of Kalgoorlie, will take the number of asylum seekers being housed at the renovated mining camp to 198, which mainly consists of family groups.

    I’m pretty sure Leonora is in Crook’s electorate. I’ll be watching to see if he has anything to say about the matter.

  19. All this Manus Island talk has put Billy Joel in my head

    We met as soul mates on Manus Island
    We left as inmates from an asylum
    And we were sharp, as sharp as knives
    And we were so gung ho to lay down our lives

    And we would all go down together
    We said we’d all go down together
    Yes we would all go down together

    We held the day in the palm of our hand
    They ruled the night, and the night
    Seemed to last as long as six weeks…

    …On Manus Island
    We held the coastline, they held the highlands
    And they were sharp, as sharp as knives
    They heard the hum of our motors
    They counted the rotors
    And waited for us to arrive

  22. Overturn ban on mortgage exit fees, Senate banking inquiry tells Wayne Swan

    I thought this was a bit odd until I read:

    …the opposition-dominated committee said in a report released today.

    Only a few more weeks until opposition dominated committees will become extinct. 🙂

  24. Well Gary we each speak from our own experiences and you may get lots of contrary feedback from others. Share it with us!

    Why would I share what my friends are saying when it’s unscientific? I really can’t see the point. I certainly wouldn’t be using their views as evidence as to what the general community is thinking.

  25. Tony Crook has issued press releases welcoming increased funding for his electorate almost every day this week.

    Monday: increased regional health infrastructure funding
    Thursday: something about digital TV switchover
    Thursday: increased funding for regional financial counselling
    Friday: increased funding for CfC programs in his electorate

    http://www.tonycrook.com.au/News/MediaReleases.aspx

  26. Erm Maybe it’s because Koperberg actually has experience as the former head of the NSW Rural Fire Service ?

    Dead right! So why didn’t Labor use his talents? Maybe because he didn’t kiss ar**?

  27. Yep Leonora is in Crook’s electorate of O’Conner:

    Thanks. I haven’t heard him say much at all about the first lot of AS who went to Leonora. Judi Moylan OTOH was vocal about AS going to her electorate.

  28. Why would I share what my friends are saying when it’s unscientific? I really can’t see the point. I certainly wouldn’t be using their views as evidence as to what the general community is thinking.

    Must try harder Gary. Short little cryptic comments just don’t cut it!

  29. Post July, the Senate Committees will only be able to set up inquiries if either the ALP-Greens, ALP-Coalition or Greens-Coalition vote together to do so.

    I wonder what sort of topics the Greens and Coalition would choose to put forward for inquiries.

    And it will guarantee that there will be no majority reports produced.

  30. Labor factions systematically destroyed Koperberg and one of the chief destroyers in coming into the Upper House soon.

  31. Must try harder Gary. Short little cryptic comments just don’t cut it!

    There was nothing cryptic about it. You understood it.

  32. 3226

    Mytwobobsworth

    Posted Friday, May 6, 2011 at 5:30 pm | Permalink

    Erm Maybe it’s because Koperberg actually has experience as the former head of the NSW Rural Fire Service ?

    Dead right! So why didn’t Labor use his talents? Maybe because he didn’t kiss ar**?

    What a stupid statement.

    Erm He was a minister if you recall.

  34. bluegreen

    Posted Friday, May 6, 2011 at 5:33 pm | Permalink

    Labor factions systematically destroyed Koperberg and one of the chief destroyers in coming into the Upper House soon.

    You mean the same Faction system Kevin Rudd used to defeat Kim Beazley with ?

    Funny how Factions are ok – when they hwlp your man, but other times – they are evil.

  35. From Crook’s media releases, the govt sure have been courting him. He’s been visiting childcare centres in his electorate with Kate Ellis, hosted Warren Snowdon on a visit the same week, as well as seen increased funds go into his electorate.

    I’m sure somewhere out there Wilson Tuckey’s head is exploding.

  36. “Why would I share what my friends are saying when it’s unscientific? I really can’t see the point. I certainly wouldn’t be using their views as evidence as to what the general community is thinking.”

    Why not? Think of it as qualitative research rather than quantitative research.

    Or

    You wouldn’t use their views because they are all so rusted on it isn’t worth it. On the other hand, if people come from a wide spectrum of background and political belief, their views are worthwhile.

  37. No Frank

    The bringing down of Rudd was miniscule as compared to the character assassination of Koperberg.

  38. I wonder what sort of topics the Greens and Coalition would choose to put forward for inquiries.

    blue-green:

    I’ve been thinking about next week’s budget. I’d imagine there will be rich pickings for the Greens and the opposition to want to ‘inquire’ into.

  39. ruawake

    Posted Friday, May 6, 2011 at 5:35 pm | Permalink

    Maybe because he didn’t kiss ar**?

    Maybe because of rumors of him kicking ass, in the real sense?

    I find it hard to believe Koperberg wasn’t impervious to Factions when working in the Rural Fire Service.

    Fact of life Factions are in every facet of business and politics.

    You get ahead by working within the system.

    As Gough once famously said – only the impotent are pure – and it seems that saying is alive and well among certain posters here.

  40. Why not? Think of it as qualitative research rather than quantitative research

    I find using my friends’ opinions on politics as proof as to what is happening out in the general community as senseless to be honest. I can’t understand why anyone would make such leaps of faith.

  41. From the old Pollbludger site

    No sooner had he secured the Blue Mountains preselection than he was forced to go public about an apprehended violence order taken out against him by his ex-wife Kate in 1987. Koperberg told Imre Salusinszky of The Australian that the affidavit had been shown to Mark Arbib by Blacktown MP Paul Gibson, who had recently concluded a 10-year relationship with Kate Koperberg, and claimed Gibson was about to leak it to Adam Searle. He went so far as to say the “smear campaign” being conducted by Gibson was “bordering on evil”, although Gibson denied all Koperberg’s allegations. According to the Daily Telegraph, it had alternatively been suggested that the order was leaked by Luke Foley (a member of the Left) to “frame” Adam Searle; another theory was that the leak came from Koperberg’s “enemies” in the Rural Fire Service.

  42. bluegreen

    Posted Friday, May 6, 2011 at 5:37 pm | Permalink

    No Frank

    The bringing down of Rudd was miniscule as compared to the character assassination of Koperberg.

    no,

    You miss the point.

  44. another theory was that the leak came from Koperberg’s “enemies” in the Rural Fire Service.

    Which proves my point that Koperberg was aware of the Factions within the RFS.

  45. Isn’t that the show that has the Abetz look-a-like?

    Mein Gott! You insult Colonel Klink! Ve haf vays to make you sehr sehr sorry!

  46. no,

    You miss the point.

    My point was so much about factionalism as it was about nastiness. However, the people responsible for nastiness in said factions continue to get rewarded.

  48. 3246

    bluegreen

    Posted Friday, May 6, 2011 at 5:42 pm | Permalink

    no,

    You miss the point.

    My point was so much about factionalism as it was about nastiness. However, the people responsible for nastiness in said factions continue to get rewarded.

    Who rewarded Arbib with a Ministry ?

    One Kevin Rudd.

  50. Gary

    It is interesting that you can’t take your friends views as representing the community. Are they telling you something that you don’t want to hear?

    From my experience, this is where you can pick up the vibe that is flying below the radar.

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