Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition; Essential Research: 54-46

GhostWhoVotes reports that the latest Newspoll is slightly less bad for Labor than what they’ve been growing accustomed to, with the Coalition lead at 53-47. More on that as it comes to hand. UPDATE: Full tables from GhostWhoVotes. Changes on the primary vote are slighter than the two-party shift (from 55-45 last time) might lead you to expect: Labor up a point to 33 per cent, Coalition down one to 44 per cent, Greens steady on 12 per cent. Tony Abbott’s personal ratings are coming out of a trough, his approval up six to 42 per cent and disapproval down five to 48 per cent. Julia Gillard is down a point on approval to 38 per cent and steady on disapproval at 49 per cent. Better PM has tweaked from 46-37 in Gillard’s favour to 45-36.

We have also had today a status quo result from Essential Research, with two-party preferred at 54-46 (steady), the Coalition on 47 per cent (steady), Labor on 35 per cent (steady) and the Greens on 9 per cent (down one). Other questions related to respondents’ level of interest in federal politics and perceptions of the media, the latter being consistent with past surveys showing public broadcasters favoured over commercial, the media mistrusted generally but not to the same extent as politicians, and partisans of either side as likely as each other to consider the media biased against them.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,270 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition; Essential Research: 54-46”

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  1. victoria I haven’t, I usually get angry and throw things after going there, OH has said if the cat goes over the patio one more time, I will follow it :-)..those 2 cats get more huggin and a smoochin than I do.

  2. BK WOW Gala from Russia is a fine big lass,,,I better stay away from there, or I will be in deep shite πŸ˜†

  3. In a state of denial
    ______________
    The :Communist-lite” remark seems quite like 1950ies McCarthyism…and very silly

    GG/Frank and the departed Ron….seem to live in their own Bubble and unaware of the flight from the ALP…NSW and the incessant polls notwithstanding.!!

    Anecdotal evidence from friends and relatives tell me that the fall in ALP standing is widespread…. Summed up by an old friend who said he failed to feel disappoin ted after Brumby’s defeat as it would not make much difference,given how right-wing Labor is nowadays
    Still that Bubble is impenetrable it seems …,Dream on !!

  4. [BK

    Is that a link which might embarrass me if I open and someone walks in the room]
    shellbell
    Only if they are particularly prudish.

  5. Re Scotland\
    ______________
    It seems the Scot Nats will nearly get a majority in their own right…outpolling the Lib-Dems/Labor .and the Tories combined

    The Lib-Dems have collapsed due to the unpopularity of the London Govt
    In the last Scots Parliament they supported a minority Nat. Govt from the crossbenchen..
    Their voters have gone massively to the Scot Nats,who have had their best result ever…not as many thought to Labour…who let’s not forget…are the party of WAR criminals Blair and Brown.
    Now for the Scot Nats…the question of Independence,and a poll to declare a Scottish republic.!!
    ..what happens by the way to old Mother Windsor’s Balmoral castle then !!

  6. But bigger news. If Charles becomes next King then there’s the slightest shot for a Republic but there is no hope if we get King Willy.

    75% of Australians watched his wedding.

  7. [Another excellent Morgan Poll for the Coalition ]

    It helps to have not one media organisation even remotely hostile.

  8. THe question about the republic ask:

    Do you want a Monarchy or that we ELECT a PRESIDENT?

    Both those two words will upset a fair slab of OZ society.

  9. King Willy gives a big boost to those who want a Monarchy

    A 4% boost from ALP supporters
    A 5% boost from Greens supporters
    and a whopping 13% boost from Lib supporters.

  10. [Another excellent Morgan Poll for the Coalition and a phone poll as well. 54:46]

    Yep. Thank goodness there isn’t a election tomorrow. πŸ˜‰

  11. [Greensborough Growler
    Posted Friday, May 6, 2011 at 4:39 pm | Permalink

    bg,

    Whatever happened to the minimalist model?]

    My model is that we make Princess Mary our Queen and her kidlets get to be our Royal Line.

    Then once we have done that

    —– Off with their heads.





    Only joking πŸ˜›

  12. [That’s the yoof factor I reckon.]

    Not that we are ageist around here. Hey Liz and Ozpol πŸ™‚

  13. [Either that or do it through a Tattlotto draw.]

    Or a reality TV show. ‘Australia’s Top Monarch’

  14. deblonay,

    The Labor Party was pretty good to you in your time. Now all you can do is shit on it from your superannuated ivory tower.

  15. [Greensborough Growler

    Posted Friday, May 6, 2011 at 4:49 pm | Permalink

    deblonay,

    The Labor Party was pretty good to you in your time. Now all you can do is shit on it from your superannuated ivory tower.
    ]

    Yep,

    What GG said πŸ™‚

  16. [Another excellent Morgan Poll for the Coalition and a phone poll as well. 54:46]
    That means its 57% to 43% doesn’t it?

  17. Gary

    I think there phone polls are pretty good. They have a larger margin of error than a newspoll or Neilsen but they dont seem to have the silly house bias that the face-to-face polls do.

  18. [75% of Australians watched his wedding.]

    Short of a rerun of war stuff on SBS, the viewing alternative was 0, zero, zilch, nix, nada.

    And what percentage watched the Fred & Mary wedding? The Wills & Kate show also drew very big numbers in the Great US of A (inc the Obamas for at least some of the time); so only a dill would equate watching = pro-British monarchy leanings.

  19. [They have a larger margin of error than a newspoll or Neilsen but they dont seem to have the silly house bias that the face-to-face polls do.]

    Although both are now about the same. Maybe the house bias is related to “think will win the next election”?

  20. The actual Republic question put at the referendum was this.

    [To alter the Constitution to establish the Commonwealth of Australia as a republic with the Queen and Governor-General being replaced by a President appointed by a two-thirds majority of the members of the Commonwealth Parliament.]

    If it had said this instead:

    [To alter the Constitution to establish the Commonwealth of Australia as a republic with the Queen and Governor-General being replaced by a President who is the winner of the Celebrity Chef Challenge. The invited chef gives the recipe for his or her signature dish to the contestant, which the contestant is to emulate. The contestant gets a head start to complete the dish before the celebrity chef starts cooking, and after the allotted time for both is finished, the dishes are presented to the judges who are for tasting and scoring out of ten. The judges are not aware which dish was made by which person, however. If the contestant’s dish’s score is higher than that of the celebrity chef’s dish, they are crowned the winner of the challenge and Australia’s Head of State.]

  21. but usually you say news poll is spot on,

    and that neilson poll the week before it made that look rather the odd one out
    so who s the one spot on now

    lol’
    news poll always they are so lets go with that one
    which is 6 points and margine of error that william says is 5
    so know who cares

  22. bg,

    Iron Ore Chef is a very popular programme as is King Coal a popular name for all our monarchs.

  23. Ozpol,

    Coleridge made up the story about forgetting swathes of Kubla Khan.

    He was a dishonest poet.

    😐

  24. blue-green @ 3195:

    Except that would split the yes vote with those who want the President declared from a celebrity dance competition.

  25. The whole start of SkyNews is based around “reports of the government moving to a Pacific Solution” and what Abbott says. The source of the “report” was, you guessed it,
    the OO.
    Now watching Hogans Heroes.

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