Newspoll quarterly breakdown: February-March

The Australian has published its quarterly geographic and demographic breakdowns of its federal polling data, compiling the results of the four polls it has published this year (it took January off). The national figures are therefore no surprise to us, as they are merely an average of this year’s polling: Labor on 34 per cent of the primary vote compared with 38.0 per cent at the election, the Coalition on 42 per cent compared with 43.6 per cent and the Greens on 13 per cent compared with 11.8 per cent (remembering that phone pollsters seemed to have acquired a tendency to overrate the Greens and underrate Labor). The Coalition holds a two-party lead of 51-49, compared with 50.1-49.9 to Labor at the election.

The real interest in the figures is in the various breakdowns offered, particularly by state. The most distinctive result on voting intention is the solid recovery for Labor in Western Australia, from a dismal base of 43.6 per cent at the federal election to 45 per cent in October-December 2010 to 48 per cent this time. A Labor hike in Queensland from 44.9 per cent at the election to 48 per cent late last year looked rather too much at the time, and sure enough the latest poll has it moderating to 46 per cent. Labor’s decline overall has been driven by NSW/ACT, from 49.5 per cent two-party at the election to 48 per cent in both quarters, and Victoria, from 55.3 per cent at the election to 55 per cent to 53 per cent. In South Australia, where Labor has nothing in the way of tight marginals, they have gone from 53.2 per cent at the election to 51 per cent and 52 per cent.

If such swings were uniform, the Coalition would gain Greenway, Robertson, Lindsay and possibly Banks in New South Wales, plus Corangamite and La Trobe (but not quite Deakin) in Victoria. Labor would gain Hasluck, Canning and Swan in Western Australia, and Brisbane in Queensland. Other things being equal, and leaving Banks with Labor, there would be a net shift of one seat in the Coalition’s direction: from 73 Coalition and 72 Labor to 74 and 71. This of course makes the notably unsafe assumption that all sitting cross-benchers would be re-elected. Furthermore, the capitals and non-capitals breakdowns suggest it would be worse for Labor than that. In the metropolitan areas which are home to most of the marginal seats, the two-party vote is at 50-50 compared with 52.5-47.5 in Labor’s favour at the election. In the non-capitals Labor has gained ground, now trailing 52-48 rather than 53.4-46.6.

On personal ratings, the most interesting finding is that both leaders have soured among the 50-plus age group. The results for Tony Abbott defy some of the stereotypes about his support base: his 52 per cent disapproval among the 50-plus is the highest of any age group, and a once substantially higher approval rating among this cohort has fallen right back to the field. He has also lost ground among 35-49s, as has the Coalition on the primary vote. Gillard is down four points on approval and up five on disapproval among the 50-plus, a situation which is reversed among the 18-34s, now clearly her best cohort.

New South Wales and Queensland are about equal as Julia Gillard’s worst state, owing to a post-election recovery in Queensland. Victoria and South Australia are roughly equal as her best (although her disapproval is up in South Australia), with Western Australia surprisingly close behind. Tony Abbott’s ratings have been consistently mediocre in New South Wales and Victoria and consistently neutral in Queensland, but he has weakened considerably in South Australia and Western Australia: from net neutral to minus 14 and minus 12. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is only six points in Queensland, elsewhere ranging from 15 points in New South Wales to 23 points in Victoria. Gender splits lean in the expected directions, though not as heavily as you would think. An exception is disapproval of Gillard, with women notably more reluctant to give her the thumbs down.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,128 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdown: February-March”

Comments Page 60 of 63
1 … 59 60 61 … 63

  4. So do we pollbludgers have to still abide by the ALP Greens truce
    or has this been called off.

    I am sure we can put on a better show of distancing ourselves
    from each other as JG and BB have.

    And have the Greens got confused about why we need
    to do this and starting distancing themselves from their
    own party?

  5. I too believe that Labor and the Greens are to an extent consciously putting distance between themselves, but this comment by Gillard is stupid on a couple of levels. One: it is so vague as to be similar to JWH’s white picket fence crap, while, two: it says greens are against normal australian lives, dignity, purpose, family, nation and doing the right thing – in other words the Greens oppose mum’s apple pie. How peurile and fatuous.

    [“And the Greens will never embrace Labor’s delight at sharing the values of everyday Australians, in our cities, suburbs, towns and bush, who day after day do the right thing, leading purposeful and dignified lives, driven by love of family and nation.”]

  6. [I too believe that Labor and the Greens are to an extent consciously putting distance between themselves, but this comment by Gillard is stupid on a couple of levels.]
    Surprise, surprise, surprise.

  8. Nonsense from Julia…(Or is an April Fools Day joke ?
    ___________________________________________
    I read this statement from Gillard with some surprise. It could have come from the lips of Alan Jones or Hadley…even for Gillard pretty silly stuff..
    Perhaps she picked up such bullshit from Jones !!

    Good to see Bob Brown hit back too.. might .remind her who keeps here in power !!

    Such silly remarks about the Greens not valueing the common bonds of family or such are just nonsense!

    What makes her spout such rubbish!

    I guess Tom Paine has warned in the past of this rubbish and is proved right by this !
    No wonder many Greens in NSW Poll didn’t given Labor their prefs …just voting ONE then exhausting their vote/..

    Or was she outraged about the Greens calling for a boycott on Israel,given her close links with the Zionist lobby here and her junket two years ago to Israel with a right-wing group including the awful Danby and YES ..Andrew Bolt himself !!

    The old saying might be right..”show me your friends and I tell you what you are ”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/04/01/3179740.htm

  9. victoria, nappin:

    Of course I’ve just taken blue-green’s work and condensed it into an email. I’ll let you know if I get a response – which I’m not expecting btw.

  11. JAUNDICED – Labor’s main delight these days is embracing the mining industry and signing whatever documents they put in front of it. Thank God we’ve got Bob Brown standing up for the rest of us.

  13. [I guess Tom Paine has warned in the past of this rubbish and is proved right by this !]
    Associating yourself with TP’s comments is no way to be taken seriously.

  14. I would love to see Combet’s responce. Confessions, did you put you postal address. Often MP’s require this before they respond.

  15. [Labor’s main delight these days is embracing the mining industry and signing whatever documents they put in front of it. Thank God we’ve got Bob Brown standing up for the rest of us.]
    Anyone that wants to put documents in front of me saying they want to pay me billions of dollars I’ll sign.

  18. blue-green:

    I just sent an email. It never occurred to me to put my postal address as well.

    I’m not expecting to get a reply – I never have in the past.

  19. Confessions

    I found that I got a better responce when you put you mailing address on it. They look you up on the electoral roll and it proves you are a real person.

    I have even had the staffers write abck asking for it before they can reply.

  20. It turns out that Abbott’s employment and participation policy had a $1 Billion black hole after Treasury scrutinized the Coalition’s costings at the last election

    http://scr.bi/c34yvo

    From what I’ve seen, it’s the exact same policy

  21. rosa
    [Labor’s main delight these days is embracing the mining industry and signing whatever documents they put in front of it.]
    Talking about the Fergusons, one of them, Andrew, looks like missing out on the last upper house seat for Labor, as it now appears to be between the Green and Pauline Hansen, although there is some way to go.

    As to Brown, he appears a statesman these days – as do Windsor and Oakeshott -among struggling local councillors.

  23. [COLGO | 7 minutes ago
    Bob Brown blames the media for highlighting anti-Israeli policies. Er yeah, maybe not having them in the first place would help]

  24. [Bob Brown blames the media for highlighting anti-Israeli policies.]

    Is Bob complaining that the media are actually are doing their job by … err … reporting?

  25. blue-green:

    I don’t expect to get a reply. My aim was to get Combet taking on the coalition and their sham policy.

  29. SOCRATES – Ireland should have done what Iceland did and liquidated the banks. But they couldn’t, of course, because then all the german banks would have lost their shirts.

  30. I think it is important to realise that labor and the greens are two separate and independent political parties , each with its own policy platform and agenda.

    From time to time the policies may touch and ever so slightly overlap but this does not mean the two parties are tied at the hip.

    Labor gets ripped a new one on AS policy every time SHY opens her mouth and is accused of all sorts of inhumane actions. Therefore by association all who vote labor. So be it. I don’t agree with what she says and as a labor voter I could take offence but hey, who cares what she thinks.

    Greens rip into labor about the terrible shift to the right on welfare issues and how like Howard labor is. By association all who vote labor. So be it.

    It is all part and parcel of politics. Brown knows it, the PM knows it. It is all part of the argy bargy as Kevin used to say.

    I find it all very interesting. Give some, take some and move on.

  31. [Labor gets ripped a new one on AS policy every time SHY ]

    shy, she is not every time i see her about to speak i mute or change channels

  34. [Don’t have the patience to hear Peter Reith]

    Victoria – how ever you remember Reith from his pollie years is how you will see him now. He is woeful. Looks mean and nasty and certainly is. Stephen Loosely is all gentleman and reasonableness. Reith is completely the opposite.

    I switch off after a few minutes.

  35. VICTORIA – Surely Carmel is gonna get the boot next time anyway. There is a permanent shift going on in places like Marrickville

  36. JAUNDICED – I’ll take Pauline over a Ferguson because you certainly know she’s not from a political dynasty –

  37. Rosa
    [But they couldn’t, of course, because then all the german banks would have lost their shirts.]
    Even more importantly, the bankers with close friends in the former government would have lost their jobs and/or generous payouts.

  38. The NBN rolls out in WA….

    Westnet newsletter

    Last month we headed back to where it all began, launching a new Westnet network in Geraldton, in regional WA.

    On March 11th it was all made official at an event in Geraldton hosted by the Minister for Broadband, Communications and the Digital Economy, Senator Stephen Conroy. The initiative will see Westnet customers be the first to benefit from a new 426 kilometre fibre-optic cable built by the Australian Government to link Geraldton to Perth – and the rest of the world – at superfast speeds.

    All in all, more than 8200 Geraldton households and businesses now have access to faster internet speeds and a more competitive broadband market.

    Chief Executive Officer, Michael Malone, spoke at the launch, saying the company was keen to be the first to deliver the benefits of the new fibre-optic link which include real competition, better service and an understanding of the needs of people in Geraldton.Geraldton

    You might not know that Westnet was founded Geraldton 17 years ago, so it’s only natural we’re excited to provide locals with access to the next generation of superfast and competitive broadband plans.

    Westnet and its parent company iiNet are investing more than $5 million in high speed broadband infrastructure in regional Australia during 2011, and Geraldton has secured more than 2500 new points of broadband access with a service as good as anywhere else in Australia.

    We’re looking forward to further meeting the needs of internet users in other regional areas in the near future.

    Posted by josh.nicholson

    April 1st, 2011 at 5:55 am

    I can well remember the room at Mitchell and Browns, full of Modems, who would ever have realised how far Westnet has come in those few years. Congratulations for all the awards you have had…………
    Shirley.

  41. victoria
    Isn’t that article interesting? Reading about it in the MSM I thought the greens’ candidate in Marrickville was on a one-person campaign against Israel. But the whole thing was about Marrickville Council’s support for the pro-Palestine BDS campaign.

    But not only did Byrne support it, but knock me down with a feather so did the Labor councillors. I wonder when Gillard is going to dissociate herself from them .
    [This smear campaign focussed almost exclusively on the Greens pro-Palestine stand, in particular its support (along with ALP councillors) for Marrickville council’s decision to sign on to the global Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) campaign.]

    Not that it matters now but the BDS campaign is perfectly supportable, and in no way anti-Semitic. It’s mainly about getting rid of the oppression of Palestinians within, and surrounded by, Israeli territory – such as that stupid wall.

  43. The difference between Labor and The Greens isn’t that Labor is in touch with “ordinary Australian values” and The Greens aren’t. Both Labor and The Greens are dominated by the same class of people – people who are too educated and culturally sophisticated to share ordinary (read: bogan) Australian values.

    The difference is that Labor politicians pretend to have these values while the Greens generally find this sort of pretense distasteful. Personally I get a little bit of sick in my mouth every time Julia Gillard talks about AFL and the Bulldogs or any of her other bogan posturings. Kevin Rudd was the same with his changes of speech when trying to sound more “ordinary Australian”, or like less of a fancy pants when talking to the troops.

    A voice in my head screams “FAKE!” and makes me despise them, both personally and politically. I don’t think I’m the only one who feels this way. Fair shake of the sauce bottle mate.

    And this is Labor’s central problem – they know that enaction of the values of “Ordinary Australians” aren’t what’s best for the country, but they feel they have to do it anyway.

    And this is not the only instance where Labor does what it knows is not best for the country. As well as appeasing bogan values, they also appease corporate and media interests, both against what they know are the interests of the country and the people.

    Apart from the political implications of not being genuine or believing in much of what you say and do, it takes a serious personal toll on a person. People of conscience and principle feel they can’t be involved with the Labor Party, and in the end all you get left with are the hollow shells. The empty vessals. The people who are interested in politics and power for its own sake.

    Those who are not directly involved but who “follow” the ALP, like here on Poll Bludger, have to undergo an odd psychological transformation in order to support such a compromised and personally distasteful group of people. It is quite sad to see. The end of the process is Frank Calabrese, but many others here are well on their way.

  46. [I would love to see Combet’s responce. Confessions, did you put you postal address. Often MP’s require this before they respond.]

    I got a response from combet’s office to an email I sent (via email).

  47. [Don’t have the patience to hear Peter Reith

    THEBURGERMAN | 9 minutes ago
    And here’s the audio to #AMAgenda with @ash_gillon feat. Peter Reith and Stephen Loosley: http://j.mp/gKfSS7 #auspol]

    Reith sits in the dark and swears the light is on!

  48. Victoria,

    Poss’s election simulator is interesting for the “Two Party Preferred Swing Since Election” bit. The only place Labor has gained is in WA. And at a greater rate than the swing to the other side everywhere else.

    Maybe a dawning that the Mining Tax was actually a good thing? Realization that opposing it was not in the people’s interests? All of the above? Something else?

  49. [Apart from the political implications of not being genuine or believing in much of what you say and do, it takes a serious personal toll on a person. People of conscience and principle feel they can’t be involved with the Labor Party,]

    i read most of what you said,

    i think a good party has to walk both sides of the fence a party and its voters make up all sorts of people.

    other wise you would never get elected.
    and the thing with Sen Brown and the pm i think its a bit of charade

  50. Dan Gulberry

    perhaps Colin Barnett and his team are starting to be on the nose? Those from WA may be able to enlighten us in some way.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 60 of 63
1 … 59 60 61 … 63