Surveying the damage region by region:
| 2011 PRIMARY VOTE | ALP 2PP | |||||
| ALP | L-NP | GRN | 2011 | 2007 | 2003 | |
| Inner Sydney | 29.3% | 36.9% | 21.2% | 47.4% | 59.6% | 64.1% |
| -12.9% | 12.0% | 0.0% | -12.2% | -4.6% | ||
| Northern Sydney | 12.2% | 67.6% | 14.0% | 19.2% | 35.5% | 42.3% |
| -8.8% | 16.2% | 2.5% | -16.2% | -6.9% | ||
| Western Sydney | 41.3% | 40.4% | 6.9% | 50.6% | 68.3% | 71.5% |
| -16.3% | 16.2% | 0.9% | -17.7% | -3.2% | ||
| Southern Sydney | 35.1% | 49.6% | 8.7% | 42.5% | 56.7% | 62.2% |
| -12.1% | 13.6% | 1.5% | -14.3% | -5.4% | ||
| Outer Sydney | 24.7% | 53.0% | 8.1% | 34.2% | 57.8% | 60.8% |
| -23.5% | 17.3% | 1.3% | -23.6% | -3.0% | ||
| SYDNEY | 28.5% | 50.7% | 11.1% | 37.9% | 55.3% | 59.9% |
| -14.5% | 15.7% | 1.6% | -17.5% | -4.5% | ||
| Central Coast | 28.7% | 51.5% | 12.0% | 37.6% | 51.9% | 57.5% |
| -12.9% | 12.9% | 4.8% | -14.3% | -5.6% | ||
| Hunter Region | 30.9% | 36.1% | 8.8% | 47.0% | 59.8% | 60.5% |
| -12.9% | 12.6% | -0.3% | -12.8% | -0.7% | ||
| Illawarra | 35.2% | 34.5% | 12.3% | 51.5% | 68.7% | 69.6% |
| -19.0% | 12.0% | 1.7% | -17.2% | -0.9% | ||
| North Coast | 12.7% | 60.7% | 13.1% | 22.9% | 35.9% | 41.5% |
| -11.7% | 12.4% | 2.6% | -13.0% | -5.6% | ||
| Regional | 16.5% | 59.7% | 6.1% | 25.8% | 36.8% | 40.6% |
| -11.0% | 29.5% | 0.5% | -11.0% | -3.8% | ||
| NON-SYDNEY | 22.7% | 50.8% | 9.1% | 34.2% | 46.1% | 48.5% |
| -14.5% | 15.7% | 1.6% | -11.9% | -2.4% | ||
Inner Sydney (6 seats). All seats had been held by Labor except Sydney; now they have lost Drummoyne and Coogee to the Liberals and are tussling with the Greens for Balmain and Marrickville (though they are probably home and hosed in the latter). Labor got pummelled by a 23.9 per cent swing in Drummoyne, and in the mid-teens in Heffron and Coogee. However, their vote held up a lot better where the campaign had been framed in the Labor-versus-Greens terms. The method I’ve used for approximating Labor-versus-Liberal two-party results doesn’t work so well when non-major parties take a big share of the vote, which applies to most of this area.
Northern Sydney (15 seats). By this I mean “the Liberal area” (albeit that it includes Ryde, which Labor won in 2007 – but which now has a Liberal margin of 26 per cent), and to this end I’ve stretched the definition of northern Sydney to include Vaucluse. This area recorded Labor’s lowest primary vote swing simply because they had the least to lose here – a swing as big as in outer Sydney would have sent them beyond the twilight zone and into negative territory.
Western Sydney (19 seats). All were held by Labor going into the election: now they’ve lost Camden, Campbelltown, Granville, Londonderry, Parramatta, Smithfield and Strathfield, and are going down to the wire in East Hills. The two worst swings were in seats they retained: Cabramatta and Lakemba. The 9.1 per cent swing in Macquarie Fields was about 5 per cent better than anything else in the region, and probably has something to do with the unusually big swing last time.
Southern Sydney (6 seats). This includes Liberal-held Cronulla and five Labor held-seats in the St George/Sutherland/Maroubra area. Labor has lost Miranda, Rockdale and probably Oatley. Swings in the Labor seats were in the 13 to 15 per cent range except Miranda, where a very slight margin was annihilated by a 21.8 per cent swing.
Outer Sydney (6 seats). The new suburbs are always the most volatile, and the 23.6 per cent two-party swing reflects this. Four of the seats recorded swings in the 20s, peaking with Riverstone at a giddy 29.9 per cent. Labor won all six seats at the 2007 election – now there are Liberal margins ranging from 4.7 per cent in Blue Mountains to 24.8 per cent in Menai.
Central Coast (4 seats). Featuring Terrigal, which the Liberals already held, and Gosford, Wyong and The Entrance, which they didn’t before but do now. Labor suffered a tellingly smaller swing in Wyong (9.5 per cent), where member David Harris stood and fought, than in Gosford (16.5 per cent) and The Entrance (17.1 per cent) which were vacated by sitting members.
Hunter Region (8 seats). Previously six Labor seats, one Liberal seat and an independent seat, now five Liberal seats, two Labor seats are an independent. Newcastle, Charlestown, Maitland and Swansea went Liberal, while Cessnock and Wallsend stayed Labor. None of the independents who were being touted proved a serious contender: Newcastle Lord Mayor John Tate managed less than half what he scored when he nearly won the seat in 2007 to finish in fourth place.
Illawarra (5 seats). All Labor before, now two Labor (Shellharbour and Keira), two Liberal (Kiama and Heathcote) with one going down to the wire between Labor member Noreen Hay and independent challenger Gordon Bradbery, who is the only potential new independent.
North Coast (7 seats). Six Nationals seats have become seven with Peter Besseling’s defeat in Port Macquarie.
Regional (17 seats). Previously accounted for two Labor (Bathurst and Monaro) and two independent (Tamworth and Dubbo) seats, now a conservative clean sweep. All four gains have been by the Nationals, most memorably Bathurst with its 36.3 per cent swing. Liberal held seats in this group are Albury, Bega, Goulburn, South Coast and Wagga Wagga).
The 2011 results in the table are based on almost the entire polling booth count, with a couple of booths still outstanding here and there. The swings are in comparison with the comparable figures from the last election. The two-party figures presented above are based on estimates in the many cases that were not Labor-versus-Coalition two-party contests, and are perhaps a little lacking in finesse. I have basically extrapolated the preference flows for the seats where there are Labor-versus-Coalition on to the ones where there aren’t. Independent and minor party preferences appeared to have divide about 24 per cent to Labor and 20 per cent to the Coalition, with 56 per cent exhausting. This compared with 30 per cent to Labor, 20 per cent to the Coalition and 50 per cent exhausting in 2007. The 2011 figure was determined with reference to 63 electorates where there were a) complete polling booth counts, and b) Labor-versus-Coalition preference figures available.
The upper house looks like 11 seats for the Coalition, five for Labor, three for the Greens and one each for Shooters and Fishers and the Christian Democratic Party, although Labor could perhaps yet poach the third Greens’ seat. If not, the numbers in the chamber will be Coalition 19 (12 Liberals and seven Nationals), Labor 14, Greens five, Shooters and Fishers two, Christian Democratic Party two.
Gary
In the link
And there was a 10% swing from all 4 independants to the Nationals, and other independants could not take votes from the Liberals in the Hunter
Otherwise there was no swing in any other Lib/Green, ALP/Green or in Lake Mac or Sydney
I am desperately waiting for Henderson, Bolt and Ackerman to say that Barry O’Farrell didn’t win by as much as he could have because he didnt go far enough to the right.
The Arbib Genius on display!
[Mr Arbib, now a senator, hit back at Mr Iemma, accusing him of being “more interested in settling old scores than giving an analysis of what actually happened”.
“It’s time for Morris to get over it and move on,” he said.]
That will make it all better!
Sounds like your rationale for everything Gary!
I hear Joel Fitzgibbon say that this election result was becuase it was unfortunate they won the last election. He seemed to have nothing real to say about Labors failings and what should be done about it. Likewise Carmel Tebbut.
Only Rees has come out properly calling for drastic reform.
The “I am only going to speak to Gladys” moment, is actually quite symbolic. BOF has been one of the few, perhaps only, recent political aspirant who has deliberately not courted the media. Andrew Elder has written about this several times.
blue-green:
I wouldn’t mind seeing Rees given another go at the leadership.
Of course the government should use speeding as a revenue-raising measure. I would much rather they raised revenue from speeding drivers than me (I don’t even own a car). Go for it, I say.
[confessions
Posted Monday, March 28, 2011 at 9:07 am | Permalink
blue-green:
I wouldn’t mind seeing Rees given another go at the leadership.]
I have met Rees. Interesting guy. He doesnt shirk decisions. He doesnt spin. He did try and the party pulled the rug from underneath him for trying.
Rees is the only “brand” in the ALP which is not tarnished and that, of course, is why they will not make him the leader. Asking them to change their culture is like asking a fish to walk on dry land. It’s not that they don’t want to: they can’t even understand the alternatives.
My only consolation about Robertson becoming leader is that he will probably be a short-term fix (a la Brendan Nelson) and then, hopefully get a bullet.
bg
So has Luke Foley and this morning Linda Burney! It will come!
Labor’s state secretary in today’s SMH:
[The one figure whose stature rose in everybody’s eyes during the campaign was Kristina Keneally. A talented and polished performer when she rose to be premier, she excelled as a campaigner. Her energy and her will to fight to the end impressed voters across the spectrum. People kept telling us, again and again, that they admired how she stood up for what she believed in. That attitude and commitment needs to be the spirit of Labor in opposition.]
*groan*
Watch as they try to get Keneally into a federal seat.
[bg
So has Luke Foley and this morning Linda Burney! It will come!]
So they have called for reform? Or said everything is OK.
Luke Foely was talking up what a brilliant campaign it was to sandbag the Ministers. And Linda Burney has never spoken up against the status quo before.
[The Arbib Genius on display!
Mr Arbib, now a senator, hit back at Mr Iemma, accusing him of being “more interested in settling old scores than giving an analysis of what actually happened”.
“It’s time for Morris to get over it and move on,” he said.
That will make it all better!
Sounds like your rationale for everything Gary!]
No, no, I agree with you MTBW. It’s better if everyone becomes bitter and descends into years of factional fighting. It always helps a party to keep on going over the problems of the past and to constantly put others down within the party. I’m right behind your thinking.
[Watch as they try to get Keneally into a federal seat.]
Excellent. She’d do well IMHO.
Confessions
Kenneally had 18 months as leader. She could have set a new policy direction. She could have made reforms. She could have built things or borrowed to build things. She could have left a legacy, either of projects or the idea of what Labor stands for. But she didn’t. She sucked up to the media. She spun. And ultimately she lived in a fantasy-land.
[Kenneally had 18 months as leader. She could have set a new policy direction. She could have made reforms. She could have built things or borrowed to build things. She could have left a legacy, either of projects or the idea of what Labor stands for. But she didn’t. She sucked up to the media. She spun. And ultimately she lived in a fantasy-land.]
In 18 months. You are joking. Besides she was handed a poison chalice. Nothing was going to stop that train wreck.
CONFESSIONS:
Groan x 3.
Suddenly, losing gracefully has become the new “winning”.
What on earth does she have to offer in Canberra?
BLUE-GREEN
In fact, the only thing she did was knock off the one leader who looked like he was going to do something.
[In 18 months. You are joking. Besides she was handed a poison chalice. Nothing was going to stop that train wreck.]
She wasnt handed a poison chalice. She took it.
She had plenty of time to do things. The only difference between her and any of the previous debacles was that she smiled more.
Labor would have been miles ahead if Sartor had won the leadership.
GARY – She wasn’t handed a poison chalice – she grabbed it with both hands.
[rosa
Posted Monday, March 28, 2011 at 9:28 am | Permalink
BLUE-GREEN
In fact, the only thing she did was knock off the one leader who looked like he was going to do something.]
Exactly. And especially when the reason that Rees got axed was becuase he tried to strip the toxic MPs of their ministerships.
[She sucked up to the media. She spun. And ultimately she lived in a fantasy-land.]
Exactly. And because of that she symbolises all that is wrong with Labor today.
I have no idea of what she stands for.
Good to see that you agree with me that it was a poison chalice.
[In fact, the only thing she did was knock off the one leader who looked like he was going to do something.]
Ah, now I’m getting the flavour of the argument. Rudd/Gillard all over again hey?
Gary
[It’s better if everyone becomes bitter and descends into years of factional fighting.]
Of course you are right! It would be much better to let the rot continue and the membership to keep falling as more of the voters desert Labor for the Libs et al.
Have you ever been a Party member Gary and actually contributed your time and effort?
Gary,
there are no similarities between the two whatsoever.
[Rudd/Gillard all over again hey?]
There is simply no comparison. None at all.
On Saturday I met an ALP booth captain who said that this was his last day as a member. I also saw someone who had handed out for 25 years for the ALP actually refuse to take a htv card for Labor (even though it came from the mother of the candidate).
[Have you ever been a Party member Gary and actually contributed your time and effort?]
You keep on asking this. What does that have to do with it? Hell, I haven’t been burned badly but I know how to avoid being burned.
To my way of thinking keeping up the factional fights is no way to unite a party.
[On Saturday I met an ALP booth captain who said that this was his last day as a member. I also saw someone who had handed out for 25 years for the ALP actually refuse to take a htv card for Labor (even though it came from the mother of the candidate).]
Are you saying this will be normal practice for every election from now on? Of course it won’t. This is an extraordinary event but Labor will recover. No party remains in government in Australia forever.
David Borger a terrible loss, IMO.
Burgey
Agree with you on Borger it is a very sad loss!
Gary
[No party remains in government in Australia forever.]
There will soon be no Party the membership are leaving in droves and when they do that they don’t return.
Paul Kelly
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/herculean-effort-needed-if-labor-is-to-rebound/story-fn59niix-1226029036396
So presumably the Nats winning Dubbo is a judgement on John Cobb?
Greens win a state government in Germany: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/27/germany-election-greens-idUSLDE72Q0KS20110327
[There will soon be no Party the membership are leaving in droves and when they do that they don’t return.]
Exaggeration at its best. When you start linking Paul Kelly you know you’re on the wrong tram.
Posted on Fed thread but relevant here.
[blue_green
Posted Monday, March 28, 2011 at 10:16 am | Permalink
Comparing the result of the Greens in state in fed elections. Look at the McKim factor (as opposed to the ‘no leader’ factor in NSW).
Greens Vote
In Tasmania- Fed election 16.8% Tas Election 21.6% = 4.8% Increase
In NSW- Fed election 10.4% NSW election 10.1% = 0.3% Decrease
Conclusions: Don’t run an election campagin without a leader. Greens do better with a moderate and presentable leader.]
Should also add to the above,
that in the tas election the ALP PV was 37% not the mid twenties that happened in NSW. The Greens failed to get one percent from the fall fo the ALP vote.
Any decent campaign with a figurehead should have secured them at least 15% of the PV.
The Greens have won the Baden-Wurttemberg state election with 24% of the vote.
http://www.stuttgarter-zeitung.de/landtagswahl/ergebnisse
[Draper, Fardell, Torbay all said that Windsor and Oakeshott has damaged the Independant brand and were the reason for the swing to the Nationals at the NSW election]
Actually this is a contradiction in terms. Being independant means NOT HAVING a brand. It means being free to make up your own mind and act accordingly as you see fit.
Oakshott and Windsor would both bristle at any suggestion that they should conform to someone else’s idea of a political brand – and anyone making such a suggestion obviously did not listen very carefully to the reasons they gave for supporting the Gillard government.
[Thankfully, the days of using Sydney’s roads as a revenue-raising bonanza are now at an end.]
LOL, there’s one born every minute.
[GARY – She wasn’t handed a poison chalice – she grabbed it with both hands.]
I hate to be pedantic Rosa but just because she grabbed it with both hands doesn’t mean it wasn’t handed to her. All it means is that she has a great belief in herself and wanted to have a go at trying to fix things. My hope is that she will now make the switch in to Federal politics where her undoubted talents can be far better used.
Darn
It was the independants who said this
“And Dawn Fardell lost Dubbo in what has been described as a “referendum” on the federal independents’ deal with Labor.
“The destruction of the independent brand rests with the perceived conduct of the federal independents,” said NSW independent Richard Torbay, one of only three state independents to retain his seat.
Mr Draper said Mr Oakeshott’s 17-minute speech last year about his deal with Labor had done irreparable damage to the cause of independents.
“There is no doubt that it did the independents no good,” he said.
“I think the outcome could have been different had the federal scene played out in a different way.”
Yesterday federal Labor MPs were concerned about the impact the election outcome would have on the psychology of the two independents.
“It is a real concern for us,” one federal NSW MP said.
“Oakeshott is a worry.”
But Mr Windsor denied the result had anything to do with him, and said it was based solely on state issues.
Mr Torbay later said that anyone who believed there was no correlation was deluding themselves.”
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/result-is-no-party-for-tony-windsor-and-rob-oakeshott/story-e6freuy9-1226029001420
DARN – Name one talent, other than fragrance.
Dovif 792
It doesn’t matter who said it.
Every genuine independent has the right to make up his/her mind on each issue that confronts them without any reference to, or restrictions from, a so-called brand.
Without that right the term independent loses all of its meaning.
[DARN – Name one talent, other than fragrance.]
Try charisma. She has it in spades.
http://au.yahoo.com/
I see the poll(at bottom of page) is running 67% against CT, what a surprise for Yahoo site!!
AS far as the Independents I don’t think if the CT hadn’t been announced it would have made any difference, the people thought it was TIME, we will see anyway
Rees or anyone else leading Labor were heading for the same train wreck. To suggest otherwise is kidding ones self.
Darn
Except the independance tends to work as a team, When Windsor went federal, he endorsed Draper and Torbay, and when Oakeshott went federal, he endorsed Basseling.
If the Independants works together and they call themself a brand, I am not going to correct them
[AS far as the Independents I don’t think if the CT hadn’t been announced it would have made any difference, the people thought it was TIME, we will see anyway]
The polls had been showing a very strong Lib/Nat vote for months.
dovif, if it makes you feel better go for it. At the end of the day Labor federally is still in power and will be, barring an unfortunate by election, for the next 2 and a half years.