Morgan: 56-44 to Coalition phone poll; 50-50 face-to-face

Morgan has published results from a phone poll conducted from Tuesday to Thursday, which shows the Coalition opening a commanding 56-44 lead on two-party preferred (using the superior measure of allocating preferences according to the results of the past election – on respondent-allocated preferences it’s 55.5-44.5), from primary votes of 31.5 per cent for Labor, 47.5 per cent for the Coalition and 10 per cent for the Greens. The poll covered a typically modest sample of 524, with a margin of error of a bit under 4.5 per cent.

Respondents were also asked about the carbon tax (33 per cent support, 57 per cent oppose); whether, in light of Julia Gillard’s pre-election statement “there will be no carbon tax under the Government I lead”, she had lied (72 per cent yes, 19 per cent no); and whether respondents supported Tony Abbott’s policy to rescind the tax in government (46 per cent yes, 42 per cent no). The results on carbon tax are solidly worse for the government than this week’s Essential Research poll, which had 35 per cent supportive and 48 per cent opposed. When compared to the results from Newspoll and Morgan, the voting intention figures in the Essential poll appear to suggest they hit upon a good sample for Labor in last week’s polling. Newspoll asked a broader question on support for paying more for energy sources if it would help stop global warming, rather than engaging with the government’s policy specifically: this had 47 per cent in favour and 49 per cent against.

The phone poll also offers personal ratings which reinforce the finding from Newspoll that Julia Gillard is now less popular than Kevin Rudd. Gillard is down four points as preferred Labor leader to 25 per cent, while Rudd is up one to 28 per cent. On the question of “preferred Labor leader other than Gillard”, Kevin Rudd has 36 per cent against 11 per cent for Stephen Smith, 9 per cent for Greg Combet and Wayne Swan and 6 per cent for Bill Shorten. After a dive for Tony Abbott in late February, the equivalent Liberal figures are back where they were in early February: Malcolm Turnbull leads Abbott 28 per cent (down six) to 24 per cent (up four), with Joe Hockey on 22 per cent (down four). Absent Abbott, Turnbull and Hockey are tied on 33 per cent, with Julie Bishop a distant third on 11 per cent.

Morgan has concurrently published results from their face-to-face polling over the past two weekends, and these are characteristically much better for Labor, showing a dead heat on two-party preferred. Presumably to emphasise the impact of the carbon tax, Morgan has also published separate figures for the two weekends of polling: two weekends ago, shortly after the carbon tax was announced, Labor led 53.5-46.5; one weekend ago, the Coalition had opened up a 52-48 lead. Respondent-allocated preferences from both weekends produced better results for the Coalition. The primary vote figures were 39 per cent for Labor (41 per cent on the first weekend, 37 per cent on the second), 44 per cent for the Coalition (41 per cent and 46.5 per cent) and 10.5 per cent for the Greens (11.5 per cent and 9.5 per cent). The sample for each week was a bit under 900; this technically gives a margin of error of a bit under 3.5 per cent, but equally significant is the consistent Labor bias in face-to-face polling.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,123 comments on “Morgan: 56-44 to Coalition phone poll; 50-50 face-to-face”

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  1. the last paragraph of that article I just posted, confirms that only 400 people attended the anti rally.
    I wonder if Uncle Ruppie has called a truce after meeting our Julia 😉

  2. Dee

    remember it was their ABC that was doing the hatchet job. As far as I can tell, the Herald Sun has been fair in its reportage re pro rally. You never know, the tide may be about to turn 🙂

  3. J6P @ 2044

    If you are worried about a Carbon Tax adding maybe 6c / litre to your fuel, what are you plans for when the price of fuel doubles as oil is depleted and demand from the likes of China and India increases?

    That is not some abstract theory, it is what is going to happen and it is not too far away.

    The example you gave is for a large but relatively low value item. Maybe such items will in future be more compact pre-fabricated kits to cut transport costs.

  4. [The example you gave is for a large but relatively low value item. Maybe such items will in future be more compact pre-fabricated kits to cut transport costs.]

    So water tanks are now a low value item when i thought they were helping to save the planet. And i fail to see how a roto-molded piece of plastic could be any more pre-fabricated

  5. Dateline is on SBS. A great program and now hosted by an Aussie girl originally from Afghanistan.

    Some interesting items on tonight including a new movie being made about the My Lai massacre. A most shameful episode in the Vietnam war.

  6. Dee@2049

    Whatever Murdoch demanded of Gillard he didn’t get it.
    Just look at the press pack before she left the US. All about Rudd.

    Dee – the above is probably a very astute comment.

  7. J6P @ 2054

    If transport costs go up, like they inevitably will for such items, then people will either pay the bill or look for other approaches such as sourcing or fabricating locally from components that are cheaper to transport. It’s called market forces.

    You are stubbornly ignoring the reality that fuel prices will continue to rise and any carbon tax will be a relatively minor component of this.

  8. also bemuses how many liters of fuel do you pay for each week?
    Multiply 6c buy conservative 7500 and see how happy you are

  9. NeilMcMahon In Andrew Bolts defence, he can only concentrate on one nuke issue at a time. He’s still fretting about that yellowcake from Niger. 13 minutes ago via web

  10. J6P
    As few as possible. But I can usually take public transport.

    To you, fuel is a cost of doing business, but you pay the same as all your competitors so you are not relatively disadvantaged.

    Instead of multiplying 7500 by 6c, try 60c or $1.20…. it’s coming so you need to get smart instead of trying to wish it won’t happen.

    I don’t know your business, but I would predict transport prices will rise and people will try to avoid incurring those costs. People in your business should be looking to maximise your fuel efficiency in terms of the amount of fuel used for each ton of freight moved. If your only competitors are other truckies, you are all in the same boat. Whoever can be a bit smarter will win.

  11. Evening

    I wonder whether the MSM think that the 8000 people at the rally in Melbourne will forget about it as well?

    The lack of media coverage on this is extraordinary. IT has made more determined to make sure that the Perth rally is bigger. I am over the manipulation.

  12. [J6P @ 2054

    If transport costs go up, like they inevitably will for such items, then people will either pay the bill or look for other approaches such as sourcing or fabricating locally from components that are cheaper to transport. It’s called market forces.]

    But if these items are produced locally and are keeping people in jobs you are quite happy for inferior products to come in cause the t’port will be the same and i bet the country they come from will not have a carbon tax so labor costs again cheaper

  13. steve

    the sheer scale of the devastation is quite hard to comprehend. As the gentleman in the footage said, he has to pinch himself to make sure it is real and not a nightmare. Heartbreaking stuff.

  14. J6P @ 2062
    Read what I said and read your reply. We both advocated local production.

    So if it is made locally, why is it so expensive to transport?

  15. Joe – this is not going to be an over night thing. And petrol prices will go up irrespective and were always going to (nothing to do with AGW but oil supplies) – nothing you or I can do about that. And nothing Julia or Tony can do either.

    If we do nothing about burning carbon then it will be even worse. So we have to start making decisions. The longer we wait, the worse it will be. I am not happy with how much I pay now for power in WA – I am actively seeking ways to reduce this cost because my budget wont cope. I have no choice. This is the world that we were warned about decades ago and ignored. Now we reap what we sowed. You can blame the pollies but that will not change the reality. Time to adapt to survive. Or not.

  16. Well whatever the price of Singapore crude is and it will go up and down, with a carbon tax the price of diesel will be 6C more because of the tax. If this is not right i would be very happy for this to be disproved>

  17. Dee @ 2065 My brother works in the oil industry. We have already passed peak oil. A few years ago. Everyone at management level in oil knows this.

  18. Bolt said on Insiders that there were only 800 at Getup’s anti rally. He then corrected the error by posting on his blog that he had “misremembered” the proper number. He has since removed the correction. Wonder what else he will “misremember”? He seems to have misremembered a fair chunk of reality lately.

    Should we be worried about him?

  19. Joe – 6 cents is nothing to what is coming re oil prices if the Middle East goes troppo. And that 6 cents will be used to compensate you at least a little bit.

  20. Gweneth

    well said. This is what the govt need to do. Australians think that energy security is a given. The whole world is competing for its resources. We have an abundance of gas, coal. We are selling gas and coal to overseas markets who increasingly are paying more for the product, which in turn makes it more expensive for us as well. With respect to oil, the world is consuming more, and the reserves are depleting. Australians need to be educated about the way in which the energy sector needs to be reformed. For those who think we can continue on our merry little way, are misinformed.

  21. joe,

    Most scientists try to disprove the null hypothesis that nothing will happen.

    I don’t think you can handle the proof.

  22. What Soccer Grand Final,real football has only just started,might have had more interest if the Glory had played,soccer in Australia is not that interesting,unless your an overprotective mother.
    Even then most kids end up playing what the mates play,and the high drop out rate continues, I sometimes wonder how I made it to 64 given that I used to play on a tip when I was a kid,walked to school, rode my bike to school,on a busy road, worked as an apprentice for 5 yrs not 3,and a lot of other things.
    Crikey the overprotective nanny state gets up my nose,I know I live in WA you wont be allowed to walk outside the way it going here,to many people jumping at there own shadows in this world,we really do import the worst of mainly US culture

  23. [Gweneth
    Posted Sunday, March 13, 2011 at 8:58 pm | Permalink

    Joe – 6 cents is nothing to what is coming re oil prices if the Middle East goes troppo. And that 6 cents will be used to compensate you at least a little bit.]


  24. J6P @ 2069

    True, Singapore crude prices fluctuate, but the trend is upward. If we are lucky this will be gradual enough for us to adjust.

    Until there is an alternative to oil obtained from fossil deposits, the price will not stabilise.

    Will your competitors buy their distillate direct from Singapore and avoid a carbon tax? If not then you are all in the same boat and you are at no competitive disadvantage. You are complaining about things that will not really affect you other than your fuel bill will rise slightly and you will need to pass those costs on as you will have done previously.

  25. Gweneth
    [Dee @ 2065 My brother works in the oil industry. We have already passed peak oil. A few years ago. Everyone at management level in oil knows this.]
    Exactly what a visiting expert told Australian parliament in his address & Barnacle scoffed & ridiculed it.
    Cannot remember his name but he had been the head of middle eastern oil.

  26. [Greensborough Growler
    Posted Sunday, March 13, 2011 at 8:59 pm | Permalink


    Most scientists try to disprove the null hypothesis that nothing will happen.

    I don’t think you can handle the proof.]
    if you can answer my ? reasonably I can handle any truth.

  27. geezlouise

    Bolt together with his shockjocks are doing everything in their power to change the narrative. The govt is bad. The govt is doomed. Rudd/Gillard have serious conflicts. Never mind that Japan is going through hell on earth right now. It is all about Rudd going rogue. Bolt dismisses all scientists re climate change, but only quotes nut jobs like him to support his theories re climate change. He must be going loopy because his hero Abbott has flipped again and said that he believes the science that climate change is real. So what does Bolt do? He becomes even more unhinged.

  28. Joe – the carbon tax is on the producers. They are taxed on the amount of carbon they produce. That money is then used to compensate small business, low paid workers and support low carbon companies.

  29. Once again I write a complaint to ABC, a total of 37 so far, all diligently answered by the ABC in one of their patronising attempts to assure me that they have been following their charter. Here is my latest letter.

    I must congratulate you on achieving what one can only presume was your aim of ostracising your audience by continually allowing commentators such as A. Bolt and P. Ackermann on what was once a quality program. I presume from the format and the continued bile that both the above commentators spew out on a regular basis that you believe that you do not require an audience and you wish to completely antagonise them and drive them to your competitors.
    Again I congratulate you, you have achieved this with me. I have spent approximately 90 minutes on the telephone to the Sharp Television help desk who very kindly led me through the process of detuning the ABC and all of its channels from my television.
    Once a great channel sinking to a level below the sewers, it is a great thing that the government are having a review on the media. I look forward to putting my submission in, which I might add I will be sending through a large number of websites to garner support in having a complete overhaul of the management and funding for ABC. Recently a petition was tabled with three signatures, from casual discussions amongst my friends, colleagues and acquaintances I am sure of many more signatures than this. And, I shall look forward to my local senator tabling it and having the list of complaints read into Hansard, particularly as you pay those sent in by telephone or email such short shift.]

    Last time I told them that I shall be regretfully de-tuning their channels from my television and letting the government review know exactly why. This time I have de-tuned and shall be letting my local member know why and sending all correspondence in as well.

  30. I am quite happy to pass on my increased costs to the consumers but are you all quite prepared for when the average consumer says fu. I ain’t paying $50 for a carton of crap vb

  31. J6P @ 2085

    In your example, if it has to be freighted to them, then it will be you or a competitor charging them and if that is the going rate they pay or don’t get their goods. Simple as that.

    If you want to contain costs and keep your rates down then you will need to think up smarter ways of operating.

  32. [steve
    Posted Sunday, March 13, 2011 at 9:10 pm | Permalink

    Jsp – you whineing old tory put a sock in it till you see the detail of the proposal can you?]
    You have no clue what i am talking about

  33. joe,

    You seem to judge everything in terms of today. Which is reasonable . Given you made your money under the old regime.

    The truth is in how you and your business adapt to change.

    Easiest thing in the world is for people like you to sit back and grizzle about change that is happening. The Government’s trying to do you a favour by putting some certainty in to the price of carbon.

    Of course, you want to whinge because you might have to get off your arse, work and innovate.

  34. Gweneth

    [The world is changing. Before our eyes]

    Therein lies the whole crux of the matter. We are witnessing and experiencing the changes, and yet people are arguing and getting angry about the inconvenience of a few dollars from their pockets. The disconnect is astounding.

  35. [Posted Sunday, March 13, 2011 at 9:10 pm | Permalink

    Joe – we don’t have a choice. If not this solution, then what? The world is changing. Before our eyes.]

    I do not know . apparentlyn2012 is doomsday anyhow

  36. GG

    I am sure J6P works very hard. The trucking industry is very demanding on drivers. I for one, imagine that J6P has a lot of stress in his job.

  37. steve @2086 Unfair, IMHO, Joe is asking practical questions that have to be answered and trying to get his head around this stuff. He is not the only one out there asking these questions. I am also looking hard at my own situation re costs etc.

    I have a smart meter that shows me what it costs me as I consume power. When I put my electric grill on the it goes from 30 cents and hour to 75 cents in one hit on a Sunday. In peak times it would be worse. Makes me thin about how often I turn the thing on.

  38. Gaffhook
    Posted Sunday, March 13, 2011 at 9:12 pm | Permalink


    A good start would be to start making enquiries now so that as your truck engines need replacing then you can upgrade to these engines and cut your fuel costs by 75%.

    Work smarter and stop wasting your time and energy whinging.

    Ever bought a truck?
    have you any idea about cat 3 regs for aus?
    tell me if you have and i will discuss what brands and there actual emissions.

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