Morgan: 56-44 to Coalition phone poll; 50-50 face-to-face

Morgan has published results from a phone poll conducted from Tuesday to Thursday, which shows the Coalition opening a commanding 56-44 lead on two-party preferred (using the superior measure of allocating preferences according to the results of the past election – on respondent-allocated preferences it’s 55.5-44.5), from primary votes of 31.5 per cent for Labor, 47.5 per cent for the Coalition and 10 per cent for the Greens. The poll covered a typically modest sample of 524, with a margin of error of a bit under 4.5 per cent.

Respondents were also asked about the carbon tax (33 per cent support, 57 per cent oppose); whether, in light of Julia Gillard’s pre-election statement “there will be no carbon tax under the Government I lead”, she had lied (72 per cent yes, 19 per cent no); and whether respondents supported Tony Abbott’s policy to rescind the tax in government (46 per cent yes, 42 per cent no). The results on carbon tax are solidly worse for the government than this week’s Essential Research poll, which had 35 per cent supportive and 48 per cent opposed. When compared to the results from Newspoll and Morgan, the voting intention figures in the Essential poll appear to suggest they hit upon a good sample for Labor in last week’s polling. Newspoll asked a broader question on support for paying more for energy sources if it would help stop global warming, rather than engaging with the government’s policy specifically: this had 47 per cent in favour and 49 per cent against.

The phone poll also offers personal ratings which reinforce the finding from Newspoll that Julia Gillard is now less popular than Kevin Rudd. Gillard is down four points as preferred Labor leader to 25 per cent, while Rudd is up one to 28 per cent. On the question of “preferred Labor leader other than Gillard”, Kevin Rudd has 36 per cent against 11 per cent for Stephen Smith, 9 per cent for Greg Combet and Wayne Swan and 6 per cent for Bill Shorten. After a dive for Tony Abbott in late February, the equivalent Liberal figures are back where they were in early February: Malcolm Turnbull leads Abbott 28 per cent (down six) to 24 per cent (up four), with Joe Hockey on 22 per cent (down four). Absent Abbott, Turnbull and Hockey are tied on 33 per cent, with Julie Bishop a distant third on 11 per cent.

Morgan has concurrently published results from their face-to-face polling over the past two weekends, and these are characteristically much better for Labor, showing a dead heat on two-party preferred. Presumably to emphasise the impact of the carbon tax, Morgan has also published separate figures for the two weekends of polling: two weekends ago, shortly after the carbon tax was announced, Labor led 53.5-46.5; one weekend ago, the Coalition had opened up a 52-48 lead. Respondent-allocated preferences from both weekends produced better results for the Coalition. The primary vote figures were 39 per cent for Labor (41 per cent on the first weekend, 37 per cent on the second), 44 per cent for the Coalition (41 per cent and 46.5 per cent) and 10.5 per cent for the Greens (11.5 per cent and 9.5 per cent). The sample for each week was a bit under 900; this technically gives a margin of error of a bit under 3.5 per cent, but equally significant is the consistent Labor bias in face-to-face polling.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,123 comments on “Morgan: 56-44 to Coalition phone poll; 50-50 face-to-face”

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  1. Gary@4759

    There is only one PM.

    Oh, so only the PM should be fighting for the cause?
    Or only Labor should be fighting for the cause? What about the Greens and any of the C’ttee that feel the need?

    There is hardly any concern about Bob Brown prosecuting the case for strong action on climate at any, and every, opportunity. The concern, as Garnaut points out, lies with the government’s need to get out of the gates quickly. It is the government of the day that bears the primary responsibility for leading the people to a better place as required by big issues. This is one of those issues.

    THe rest of the multi-party committee -Brown and the indies – and the experts too (I suggested earlier that Garnaut should appear with Gillard) should be involved in what is a major exercise in bringing the voters up to speed. But let’s see Gillar d& co get going.

    The major concern I have is that the inner tensions within Labor about the new policy imperatives will hobble it just when it needs to gallop. No such constraints affect Brown or the indies.

  2. Once again, the “shy Tory” effect rears its ugly head.

    Makes you wonder why, if people are so embarrassed about it, they continue to vote in such a socially unacceptable manner 😉

  3. i will say and i will always say people tell the truth face to face.
    they get to like the lady or man talking to them and they do.
    on the phone some people just fool a around.
    i know this because when the face to face lady came here we chatted had coffee and cake and she stayed about an hour
    there would of be no way i would told her something i didnt beleive.

    William will you please put that poll around the other way
    so its not staring at me at the bottom of my screen where i leave.

    seriously come on

  4. Support Carbon tax: 33 per cent support, 57 per cent oppose
    Should Coalition rescind the tax in government: 46 per cent yes, 42 per cent no

    So some people are against it but once it happens just let it be?

  5. [8 Boerwar
    Posted Friday, March 11, 2011 at 5:36 pm | Permalink
    I’ll take the face to face polling]

    me to people dont usually lie to you face to face in this situation, why does he do both types
    very strange.
    will the media mention both or just one lets see

  6. That’s a cop out jaundiced view. If you believe in climate change then it is your responsibility as well to start knocking this denial rubbish on the head. Just as it is Bob Brown’s responsibility to get out there and start lending his voice to the bloody cause.

    But then you just love sitting around talking about how crap Labor is, don’t you. Why don’t you start expending some of that energy on something constructive and get your tuckus to a rally to support getting a price on carbon.

  7. Chris Smith on Radio Liberal today was boasting that they’ll have a crowd of more than 50,000 at the “Stop The Carbon Dioxide Tax” rally.
    I’m a little worried about what might happen on March 23 in Canberra, based on the over the top rhetoric being spewed out by 2GB shockjocks.

  8. My Say

    You like the Face to Face results because they give a result more to your liking. Over and over again on this site there has been discussion on there being an inbuilt Labor bias in the face to face results of about 5 – 6% (no different this time).

    Frankly, I don’t know why Morgan bother with either sort of political poll. I suppose they believe it gives them some sort of polling prestige.

  9. So jv with members of a C’tee and a government made up of Labor, Greens and some indies, if the hard sell fails it will be Labor’s fault only?

  10. [You like the Face to Face results because they give a result more to your liking. Over and over again on this site there has been discussion on there being an inbuilt Labor bias in the face to face results of about 5 – 6% (no different this time).]
    Any criticism of conducting a phone poll with only 500 people?

  11. Not a good poll, but Morgan is all over the place with their polls so I wouldn’t take them seriously.

    Of course there will be some bad polls for the Government over the coming weeks, but this is normal. Federal Governments of most persuasions typically trail in opinion polls – the early years of Rudd Labor were the exception.

  12. Prediction: March 23

    When it comes to reporting the estimated attendance of the Seniors for Sea Level Rises rally, the highest estimate will be by Their ABC.

  13. Gary @ 18

    As I said above – Why do they bother? – but agree – no disagreement with you on the sample size – a bigger sample will give a better (more objectively believable) result.

  14. [Gary

    Posted Friday, March 11, 2011 at 5:46 pm | Permalink

    You like the Face to Face results because they give a result more to your liking. Over and over again on this site there has been discussion on there being an inbuilt Labor bias in the face to face results of about 5 – 6% (no different this time).

    Any criticism of conducting a phone poll with only 500 people?
    ]

    You forgot Westpoll with their pithy 400 people – which according to Jasmine have been out lurking and will be released late tonight/Tomorrow.

  15. Victoria: I’m worried about civil disobedience on March 23 in Canberra.
    Abbott has stoked all this, with the call for a “People’s Revolt”, and that was just the incitement the shock jocks needed to ramp up the anti-Labor Government rhetoric.
    I fear that the mob, after their rally, will try and storm Question Time!
    And despite the claims of Chris Smith, this is an anti-Gillard rally – those invited to speak are Abbott, Hunt(although he’ll get booed when he professes his belief in manmade climate change) and Alan Jones.

  16. [Over and over again on this site there has been discussion on there being an inbuilt Labor bias in the face to face results of about 5 – 6% (no different this time).]

    It’s not that bad. More like 3 per cent.

  17. Greg Hunt is going to look rather embarrassed, arguing for Direct Action in front of a load of pensioners & sceptics, who think that climate change is some conspiracy of the left – should be amusing. 😀

  18. Evan
    for you

    Gary Morgan says:

    “Kevin Rudd is now the preferred leader of the ALP for the first time since he was deposed as Prime Minister in June last year. Rudd (28%, up 1%) is now ahead of current Prime Minister Julia Gillard (25%, down 4%) according to a special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last three nights, March 8-10, 2011.

    http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2011/4640/

    snickers off to have dinner 😀

  19. [victoria

    Posted Friday, March 11, 2011 at 5:53 pm | Permalink

    evan14

    don’t worry. I am sure there will be police at the march. It should be okay.
    ]

    and since it will be the AFP – they have more powers than the NSW Police will EVER have 🙂

  20. fiz

    [That’s a cop out jaundiced view. If you believe in climate change then it is your responsibility as well to start knocking this denial rubbish on the head. Just as it is Bob Brown’s responsibility to get out there and start lending his voice to the bloody cause.

    But then you just love sitting around talking about how crap Labor is, don’t you. Why don’t you start expending some of that energy on something constructive and get your tuckus to a rally to support getting a price on carbon.]

    You’ve got it Fiz.

    That sums up what many of us think about jv.

  21. [vera

    Posted Friday, March 11, 2011 at 5:55 pm | Permalink

    Evan
    for you

    Gary Morgan says:

    “Kevin Rudd is now the preferred leader of the ALP for the first time since he was deposed as Prime Minister in June last year. Rudd (28%, up 1%) is now ahead of current Prime Minister Julia Gillard (25%, down 4%) according to a special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last three nights, March 8-10, 2011.

    http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2011/4640/

    snickers off to have dinner
    ]

    You mean Morgan got hold of Rudd’s Address book and spammed that ? 🙂

  22. vera
    No NHK, which I assume is a Japanese feed on SkyNews. Just showing a river flowing live footage of a tsunami smashing across the country side.

  23. William,

    If you are quoting figures after “allocating preferences according to the results of the past election”, to be consistent the phone poll is 56/44.

  24. Evan

    Those clowns at Macquarie Network have seen what the Tea Party achieved in the congressional elections in the US and will go all out to repeat it here. They will continue to pursue this Federal Government because in their eyes they see it as illegitimate.

    They have watched and they have learned! Their egos will not allow them to give up!

  25. evan14
    Posted Friday, March 11, 2011 at 5:52 pm | Permalink

    Victoria: I’m worried about civil disobedience on March 23 in Canberra.

    It’s happened before
    They came close to getting the rodent out of his hole 😉

    Reuter, Monday 19 August 1996, 6:18 PM EDT

    CANBERRA (Reuter- Rioters wielding sledgehammers and a battering ram stormed Australia’s parliament Monday in protest against labor reforms and proposed budget cuts.

    Hundreds of rioters smashed through glass doors at the front of the parliament and clashed with police in the public foyer in a confrontation lasting about two hours — the worst violence ever experienced in the Australian parliament.

    Despite riot shields, one police officer suffered burns to his face after a protester threw acid on him. A total of 60 police and protesters were injured in the scuffles and from broken glass, but police charged only four people.

    Chanting “Johnny, we’re coming to get you,” referring to Prime Minister John Howard, several protesters got within 110 yards of the prime minister’s office.]
    http://www.hartford-hwp.com/archives/24/209.html

  26. [Evan

    Those clowns at Macquarie Network have seen what the Tea Party achieved in the congressional elections in the US and will go all out to repeat it here. They will continue to pursue this Federal Government because in their eyes they see it as illegitimate.

    They have watched and they have learned! Their egos will not allow them to give up!]

    True………Chris Smith fancies himself as the Aussie Glen Beck/Russ Limbaugh.

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