Morgan: 56-44 to Coalition phone poll; 50-50 face-to-face

Morgan has published results from a phone poll conducted from Tuesday to Thursday, which shows the Coalition opening a commanding 56-44 lead on two-party preferred (using the superior measure of allocating preferences according to the results of the past election – on respondent-allocated preferences it’s 55.5-44.5), from primary votes of 31.5 per cent for Labor, 47.5 per cent for the Coalition and 10 per cent for the Greens. The poll covered a typically modest sample of 524, with a margin of error of a bit under 4.5 per cent.

Respondents were also asked about the carbon tax (33 per cent support, 57 per cent oppose); whether, in light of Julia Gillard’s pre-election statement “there will be no carbon tax under the Government I lead”, she had lied (72 per cent yes, 19 per cent no); and whether respondents supported Tony Abbott’s policy to rescind the tax in government (46 per cent yes, 42 per cent no). The results on carbon tax are solidly worse for the government than this week’s Essential Research poll, which had 35 per cent supportive and 48 per cent opposed. When compared to the results from Newspoll and Morgan, the voting intention figures in the Essential poll appear to suggest they hit upon a good sample for Labor in last week’s polling. Newspoll asked a broader question on support for paying more for energy sources if it would help stop global warming, rather than engaging with the government’s policy specifically: this had 47 per cent in favour and 49 per cent against.

The phone poll also offers personal ratings which reinforce the finding from Newspoll that Julia Gillard is now less popular than Kevin Rudd. Gillard is down four points as preferred Labor leader to 25 per cent, while Rudd is up one to 28 per cent. On the question of “preferred Labor leader other than Gillard”, Kevin Rudd has 36 per cent against 11 per cent for Stephen Smith, 9 per cent for Greg Combet and Wayne Swan and 6 per cent for Bill Shorten. After a dive for Tony Abbott in late February, the equivalent Liberal figures are back where they were in early February: Malcolm Turnbull leads Abbott 28 per cent (down six) to 24 per cent (up four), with Joe Hockey on 22 per cent (down four). Absent Abbott, Turnbull and Hockey are tied on 33 per cent, with Julie Bishop a distant third on 11 per cent.

Morgan has concurrently published results from their face-to-face polling over the past two weekends, and these are characteristically much better for Labor, showing a dead heat on two-party preferred. Presumably to emphasise the impact of the carbon tax, Morgan has also published separate figures for the two weekends of polling: two weekends ago, shortly after the carbon tax was announced, Labor led 53.5-46.5; one weekend ago, the Coalition had opened up a 52-48 lead. Respondent-allocated preferences from both weekends produced better results for the Coalition. The primary vote figures were 39 per cent for Labor (41 per cent on the first weekend, 37 per cent on the second), 44 per cent for the Coalition (41 per cent and 46.5 per cent) and 10.5 per cent for the Greens (11.5 per cent and 9.5 per cent). The sample for each week was a bit under 900; this technically gives a margin of error of a bit under 3.5 per cent, but equally significant is the consistent Labor bias in face-to-face polling.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,123 comments on “Morgan: 56-44 to Coalition phone poll; 50-50 face-to-face”

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  2. The question has been asked. The answer is still with the Tsunami.

    [COMMENTARY/ Can quake-prone Japan really coexist with nuclear power plants? – Friday’s earthquake halted operations at many nuclear power plants. It will take time to resume them. We should be aware that the reliance on nuclear power has ironically created risks in energy supply.

    We must be modest in preparing for the danger of earthquakes. We must go back to square one in our discussions and delve into such fundamental questions as how far we should count on nuclear energy in this quake-prone country and whether safety can ever be secured for nuclear power plants.

    Otherwise, many people will not be convinced of the need for nuclear energy after going through the fear of radiation leaks in addition to the devastation caused by the killer jolt. ]

    http://www.asahi.com/english/TKY201103120305.html

  5. bemused,

    Sorry, you actually want to do something.

    I’ve mistaken you for the usual crew that want to pontificate and wave their finger.

  19. GG @ 2005

    If I recall correctly, we have clashed in the past in one of those all in brawls involving Frank.

    But that is history. We move on. Comrade.

  20. I’ll take a stab at the Nielsen poll for tomorrow.

    57/43 to Coalition. Greens at 14, ALP 28, Coal 50. Gillard to be less popular than Abbott. Difference in PPM around 8%. Support for Carbon Tax 39/56. Probably a Rudd vs Gillard question because tension sells.

    Nielsen likes producing outliers.

    Commentary to be doom and gloom with unnamed Labor sources saying they’d rather go and commit suicide like the NSW ALP than to stick with something unpopular. Fran Kelly to have an orgasm while discussing the poll on RN.

  22. Terrific Wizard of ID cartoon today. King and Duke playing ball. Last frame. King has tennis racquet, Duke has table tennis bat. Table tennis table. “Good game, sire.”, “Good game, Duke.”

  23. bemused
    Would you like to explain to me again how to tun my business greener when my trucks are all less than 5yrs old and comply to euro cat3. regs?

  25. bemused,

    Clashes here are an occupational hazard if you are passionate about what you write.

    I don’t ever take anything personally here on pb.

  28. J6P @ 2023

    Your competitors will face the same pressures as you and the minor effect of a carbon tax will be nothing to what the future holds as we pass peak oil.

    The cost of transporting goods will rise and in the end consumers will pay the price. Currently the cost of transporting goods is not really high unless you are talking about really low value good. For example, I recently paid about $10 to have a computer worth about $2650 shipped from Sydney. That represents less than 0.5% of the cost of the goods. Would I be severely impacted if shipping costs doubled? Nope.

    From what I hear truck drivers are under pressure because freight companies keep trying to cut their rates unreasonably and they play truckies off against each other. There lies your largest problem.

  33. is it a repeat of the drum,, doubt many people watch this on a Sunday night you would have to love politics more than we do.

    who s on it, i caught glimpse of that ex woman’s adviser the other day quickly turned off
    amazing how these people pop every where on their 24 now i suddenly realised why it was set up so they could have as many political shows as possible
    Not just the news

  35. I don’t know what they are calling it. But it was a montage of Gillard being hopeless.
    Swan taken out of context. Playing up the possibility of advertising.
    Bolt & Piers making comment. Oakes overplaying Obama’s commentary.
    For instance! When Obama said from afar I think she is doing a good job. To which Oakes says well he doesn’t know our PM.
    OH was livid, screaming at the tv using very big expletives.
    A montage of edited garbage to make it look ‘really’ bad.

  39. Dave @ 1992

    That was i think a pretty good description of what probably has happened in that reactor.

    Cant believe that in some places people are saying, oh its just a hydrogen explosion.

    Think turning the reactor building into a minor fuel air bomb maybe?? Hydrogen is not stuff to dick around with in an industrial sense.

    That said, as long as the actual containment vessel is intact then all (hah!) they have to worry about is stuff getting out carried by leaking steam or the coolant they are using. Be a long time till anyone drinks the milk or eats the fish from that area think i.

    This is really not good.

  40. [Playing up the possibility of advertising.
    Bolt & Piers making comment. Oakes overplaying Obama’s commentary]

    yes i saw that this morning on the Okes show.

    i thought how rude, Greg combet ignored it and even talked over oaks,

    any way in what context was that re obama.

  42. [OH was livid, screaming at the tv using very big expletives.
    A montage of edited garbage to make it look ‘really’ bad.]

    it is good if you watched you can write to them I know it doesnt do much good but still.the letter i got from the 7.30 report

    the last line made me laugh,,,,, and it not going to change.

    i felt like naughter viewer

  43. [OH was livid, screaming at the tv using very big expletives.
    A montage of edited garbage to make it look ‘really’ bad.]

    tell ok he is a rose amoung thorns only lib watch that show these days

    as i said i heard a reporter about 5 years ago say the listening audience was about 250 th. i wonder what it is to day.

  44. [From what I hear truck drivers are under pressure because freight companies keep trying to cut their rates unreasonably and they play truckies off against each other. There lies your largest problem.]

    You mean toll/linfox yep, but not all the time and although your $2000 comp cost 10 bucks to move what about a $800 water tank that costs $250 to move?
    It is all well and good for academics to put the theories up but unless you think you can make me more profitable buy being greener stfu.

  45. [any way in what context was that re obama.]
    Obama had said that from afar he thinks Gillard is doing a good job to which the over inflated toad said, he doesn’t know our PM.
    Yes, a replay of Inciters. Fortunately I missed that introduction this morning.
    Nyah! 😡
    OH just about blew a gasket.

  47. Dee

    I had received warning from Bludgers this morning on the hatchet job that was Insiders. I also ascertained it from tweets by Possum and friends.

  48. joe,

    Put up a sign that you’ve got green trucks. Worst case scenario is that it will cost you a couple of paint jobs.

    Use it as a marketing positive and stop whingeing.

  49. Whatever Murdoch demanded of Gillard he didn’t get it.
    Just look at the press pack before she left the US. All about Rudd.

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