Newspoll quarterly breakdown

The Australian has Newspoll’s quarterly geographic and demographic breakdowns, combining results from its six post-election surveys to obtain samples big enough for state, gender and metropolitan/regional breakdowns. These indicate that Labor has held its ground on two-party preferred thanks to gains in Queensland, where their two-party vote of 48 per cent compares with 44.9 per cent at the election. From a low base, the state has delivered a six-point boost to Julia Gillard’s personal ratings, her approval up to 40 per cent and disapproval down to 44 per cent. This has balanced losses in New South Wales (down 1.5 per cent to 48 per cent), South Australia (down 2.2 per cent to 51 per cent) and Victoria (down 0.3 per cent to 55 per cent). Labor is up 1.4 per cent to 45 per cent in Western Australia, in line with Westpoll’s recent results. Labor is down 0.5 per cent across all capitals, driven by a 5.1 per cent fall in the primary vote, and up 1.4 per cent in non-capitals (which I wouldn’t have picked). The Coalition has suffered an unlikely eight point hit on the primary vote among the 35-49 age bracket, a correction after a rogue result in Newspoll’s famed election eve poll.

UPDATE: The last Essential Research survey for the year has the Coalition’s two-party lead steady at 52-48, with Labor up a point on the primary vote to 38 per cent, the Coalition steady on 46 per cent and the Greens steady on 10 per cent. On the poll’s monthly measure of personal ratings, Julia Gillard is steady on approval at 43 per cent and up two on disapproval to 40 per cent, Tony Abbott is one point on each to 39 per cent on each, and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 45-34. The big winner from the poll is Julian Assange: 53 per cent approve of the release of the Wikileaks material with just 25 per cent disapproving, and 46 per cent disapprove of the government’s response (the question explicitly referring to the Prime Minister’s “grossly irresponsible” and “illegal” lines) against 32 per cent who approve. Fifty per cent believe Assange should receive support and assistance from the Australian Government if he is charged with an offence by the US or another country, against 26 per cent who believe he should not. The poll also finds 43 per cent support (steady on a year ago) and 37 per cent opposition (up two) for the development of nuclear power plants for electricity.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,153 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdown”

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  1. [Labor’s A-S polisy is humane as i showed in my detailed a-s #1299 last thread

    I also showed why Greens polisy is grossly unhumane , as is Libs]

    Actually, you didn’t Ron.

    You simply made one line assertions about both the Green and Liberal policies, and then provided a few of brief aspects of the Labor policy, which you didn’t elaborate on or really even argue the case for. Some of them are true and some of them are somewhat more questionable. Lets look at them:

    1)”Labor abolished TPR’s”

    Indeed, to their credit, they did.

    2)”Labor uses CI that is direct under UNHRC unlike Naru was”

    Again this is essentially true and an improvement over the Liberal position. What this means really is that because Australia is a signatory to the convention processes there are meant to accord with its contents. It doesn’t give the UNHRC any greater operational role, though. In fact UNHCR actually has less of a role there than it does with refugees in Indonesia, for example, because in the latter case it is the UNHCR (with help from Australia) which is largely footing the bill for Asylum Seeker assistance.

    It leaves unanswered, though, the question of whether using Christmas Island at all, rather than processing “on sure” is really a good idea. THere are pluses and minuses about this it seems to me. It would be good to se them debated, rather than simply asserted.

    3)”Labor A-S processes is ASAP unlike Howard ’s did using ‘delays’ ”

    The extent of delays involved in both the Howard and Labor approaches are appalling in my view.

    4)”Labors polisy furthermore protects our oz Borders as a responsibel Govt should do to check health & security status of boat arrivals
    ”
    Possibly, Ron, but the process takes far, far too long, and is generally conducted using a more punitive approach of compulsory detention than is to be found in quite a few other countries with far greater refugee demands placed on them than we have.

    5)”Labor’s polis also leads to a planned sensible regional process as its not just an oz only isue because A-S is a regional issue region ”

    Indeed it does seek to do so, and this is a good thing. It is far, far greater problem for the rest of the region than it is for Australia, though, of course.

    6) “and process also will furthar reduce drownings”

    perhaps it will and perhaps it won’t. It depends on what emerges from the regional process. The critical issues, it seems to me, if it is to do so, involves the possibility of ensuring rapid and effective processing of the people in the countries that actually bear the brunt of the problem – like Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. If this occurs then there will be less incentive for people to use other methods. The primary focus of any regional process will not be dealing with Australia’s comparatively trivial political need to “stop the boats”, though. It will have to be undertaken by dealing with the issue in a truly regional matter, overcoming primarily the far greater problems that the other countries have to deal with. “Stopping the boats” will, at best, be a by- product of such things. I suspect it is very likely that the “quid pro quo” which Australia will have to offer in return, apart from providing financial support, will be accepting a substantially larger humanitarian intake from the countries concerned, and perhaps at least in the short term returning primarily to “on shore processing” to reduce pressure on the other countries concerned. Labor should be setting the groundwork to achieve greater public acceptance of such things now by doing more to “humanise” Asylum seekers in the eyes of the public in my view.

    (more later. Have to take my mum in for a medical procedure)

    There are no easy answers here, and while better than the Libs position, labors approach is certainly not perfect.

  2. Pegasus @ 49

    Thank you for the links. Several PB-ers have suggested personalising the asylum seekers through their stories. In Josh Fear’s paper (1. above) he shows how the Howard govt (esp Ruddock/Reith) dehumanised them.

    [Yet xenophobia can be tempered through greater awareness of the common humanity
    shared with members of the outside group. Research in the United Kingdom has
    found that providing contextual information about asylum seekers and their
    circumstances can often mitigate prejudiced attitudes towards people of other
    nationalities and cultures (Newman 2007). Bearing this in mind, the Coalition
    Government’s attempt to suppress any ‘humanising’ stories about asylum seekers held
    offshore is particularly unsettling.]

    It was also the Howard govt who carefully crafted links between AS & terrorists and therefore turned the boatds into a “border protection” problem. This unfortunately has carried into current political thinking and Labor has been conned intotreating it in this way.

    [With asylum seekers thus portrayed as a threat to the nation (with criminal
    tendencies), members of the government were able to frame immigration policy as a
    matter of ‘border protection’ and ‘national security’, bypassing the pressing
    humanitarian issues at stake.]

    [To emphasise the need for a refugee policy with a strong ‘national security’ dimension,
    the Prime Minister made ‘a direct link between Australian border protection laws and
    the 9/11 attacks’ only a few days prior to the November 2001 election (Atkins 2001).
    In a very carefully phrased interview with the Courier Mail’s Dennis Atkins, he said
    that ‘Australia had no way to be certain terrorists, or people with terrorist links, were
    not among asylum seekers trying to enter the country by boat from Indonesia’ (Atkins
    2001).
    In fact, there was no evidence that the Tampa refugees, or any other asylum seekers,
    were terrorists or had terrorist links. It was subsequently revealed that ASIO had
    ‘assessed thousands of ‘unauthorised arrivals’ … but found no concerns about any of
    them’.]

    [When Atkins showed Howard the front page story the night before its publication, Howard is reported to have exclaimed: ‘Good. Excellent!’ (Allard 2001).]

  6. morning bludgers

    Gusface

    I also heard Hockey call Wilkie a Liar on ABC 774. I can’t see Wilkie supporting the coalition any time soon 🙂

  9. Dio,

    I know it is not to determine policy. But the start of any solution is to start with the truth and that is what the committee is to for to disseminate the truth.

  11. victoria

    I’ve been scanning the newspapers and they are a very depressing lot.
    I’ve been wondering – if Julia wasn’t expecting to take over as leader so soon (and I believe her on this), she wouldn’t have had her own “big picture” worked out, which would be why she’s being more reactive than proactive. I had hopes that a break at Christmas would give her a chance to take stock, but doesn’t look like it.

  15. Hockey basically said that Wilkie is lying because he spoke to Abbott at the time about the issue.
    The radio host should have asked Hockey if Abbott had put it in writing at the time. Remembering that unless it is in writing, it may not be the whole gospel truth.

  21. [I’ve been scanning the newspapers and they are a very depressing lot.]

    Earl Warren, former chief justice of the U.S. Supreme Court, told readers of Sports Illustrated in a 1968 interview: “I always turn to the sports pages first because they record people’s accomplishments; the front page nothing but man’s failures.”

  22. victoria

    There’s more in the Oz, the ABC, general gloom and of course all headlines are saying Labor has lost pv since the election. Hardly anyone mentions Gillard’s holding her own against Abbott on personal vote.

  23. just a little message, just ventured on to radio abc while i clean the silver.
    heard Mr, Wilkie say that Abbott promised Mr. Wilkies to double the intake of As.seekers if Mr. Wilkie went with him,

    Abbott has denied it,
    I will let you make up you own mind on this.
    I rang MR, Wilkes office and thank him for telling us this, gee this is a wiilki leak, good on you Mr. Wilkie for telling us some of the discussions you had with Abbott
    It just shows the hypocrisy of the libs

  24. victoria

    And it’s absolutely hissing down with rain again, had been all night.
    We seem to get rain that doesn’t even show up on the BOM radar 🙁

  27. Broadband
    We don’t need to see the release,we’ve already had it panned by Kohler. sigh.

    victoria
    I feel an urgent need to keep up with what the enemy is reporting. Or sometimes I go as a result of a tipoff on PB. Then I can be selective.

  28. [I meant – she’s not going to get the break she needs.]

    I recently read a speach of Senator faulkners where wtte, he mentioned that the

    { conservatives seek to divide where as the left of politics seek to unite.}

    This is something we could say over and over to people we meet, and hopefully labor politicians could also say it.
    i see some light at the end of the tunnel lizzie i alwasy look for signs from the light as you all know.

    the faces on the people coming to Adelaide was marvelous, Mr. Wilkie talking about abbott and posted above, So Joe will he say the same about this statement i wonder.

    If we can get more people in to the cities and not in a detention center it makes them become human and the children are see as just like any one else’s children.

    and gee we won the cricket, seems the gov. of the day is alwasy popular when we win the cricket think about it.

    most of all we all need to start our christmas lunch with a toast to a better and caring australia, I dont care if i offend any one they can leave. But i dont have to worry about that as they are all labor ites and we have a couple of quests from europe that take more refugees than we ever do, so they think what is happening here is quite unbelievable.

  30. [2)”Labor uses CI that is direct under UNHRC unlike Naru was” ]

    Incorrect, people on Nauru were processed under U.N rules exactly the same as those on Christmas Island.

    I wish people could be a bit more honest when it comes to telling the truth.

    There is no difference between procesing people on CI and Nauru, except that Nauru helped stop the boats.

  32. Cuppa

    [Who are you going to believe: Hockey or Wilkie? Gee, tough call. 😉 ]

    Yes indeed. Wilkie has minimal reason to lie and the Libs have every reason to lie.

    Wilkie is a class and and the Libs would have done anything to regain power.

  34. [victoria
    [Posted Monday, December 20, 2010 at 11:03 am | Permalink
    piece from John Ferguson in Herald Sun today

    Basically says Julia better pull her finger out as she is running out of time

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/opinion/julia-gillard-running-out-of-time-after-six-months-as-prime-minister/story-e6frfhqf-122597363425%5D%5D

    gee talk about brain washing, Howard did nothing in 11 years except the gst and the

    Sent troops to iraq, dont remember anything else and no one said that.

    NBN and maternity leave , 51 other bills.

    Victoria if you read things like this post things like the above better still dont read it.
    look most people dont, so thats one thing people here have got to remember may be 10 percent of the population read other people opinion and they vote liberal i never ever read bolt or gee cannot remember his name the man with the round face. or oakes,
    and soon as an opinionated person come on the sunrise show the tv goes off off
    and mostly not turned back on, these tv stations should start to realise they loose viewers with commentators telling us how to think i am sure a lot of people and i know ones that do turn it off.

    Its not worth the hassle to make your self feel bad, what ever happens happens.
    We do have to i think let our member all know that we are happy with Julia and that is important i think.
    I dont even take the time to visit their sites it just gives them traffic if no one read them they may change their tune, I noticed in the Adelaide paper there where very few comments only about the refugees same here perhaps SA and TAs people dont do that. The mercury on line never has many comments at all.

  36. [victoria
    Posted Monday, December 20, 2010 at 11:33 am | Permalink
    my say

    When you called Wilkie’s office, what was their response?

    Too funny. Wilkie leak]

    just a good laugh, they are also nice there I ask them to consider more
    also ask him to give Julia heeps of support this was is adviser of course, but when i go to the city tomorrow i will put my head around the door and say it to him if i can.

    Andrew was out at the college the other day and my oh who sort of knows him because of a rug chatted away to him my oh said gee he is a friendly sincere person. and my oh picks up on things and people i can alwasys rely on that.

  37. [gee talk about brain washing, Howard did nothing in 11 years except the gst and the

    Sent troops to iraq, dont remember anything else and no one said that.]

    Brought Democracy to East Timor(yes it was him who pressured Whitlams mates in Indonesia for an independence vote), 11 Budget surpluses, gun reform, stopped the boats, major taxation reform, strong economic growth for 10 years.

    The sort of stuff that matters to real Australians, not token gestures and no action.

  42. just all remember the Senator Faulkerner comment
    havent got in fron of me at the moment but.

    wtte{ conservatives seek to divide the left of politics seek to unite}

    i truly beleive this is what JUlia is trying to do, but of course she is learning that
    thats impossible with the conservatives they only do what they think will give them a few votes

  45. To be realistic the coalition are the opposition and of course they want to be in govt so why would they help Labor to stay in power?

    Same when Labor was opposition they tried as hard as they could to get on the govt benches

    It’s the way the 2 major parties work

  46. Diogs,

    I’m ambivalent about Wilkie.

    He made his reputation by being an alleged whistleblower. Others see him as breaker of confidences and even a traitor.

    He’s made a habit of revealing the contents private conversations at moments that suit his “publicity seeking’ agenda. I ve also noticed that whenever he bags the Government he tries to bag the Opposition at the same time.

    If he’s trying to establish himself as an honest broker then he’s not succeeding as I doubt anyone in the Government and especially the Opposition will trust him.

    He’s receiving plenty of “look at me publicity” atm. Not sure that helps solve anything.

  48. Obama has led worldwide condemnation of WikiLeaks, calling its actions “deplorable”

    USA VP Jo Biden ‘When asked whether he thought Mr Assange was a high-tech terrorist or a whistleblower like those who in 1971 released the Pentagon Papers – a series of secret documents revealing US military policy in Vietnam – Biden was clear: “I would argue that it’s closer to being a high-tech terrorist.”

    imagine this will please th zealot anti USA zealots here

  49. Vera Beazley wasn’t perfect but he did nothing like what the turnbull and Abbott oppositions did, even Latham setout an alternative positive vision and other than a stupid troops home by Xmas comment didn’t do and say anything near as stupid or as damaging to the national interest as Abbott does nearly every day.

  50. Ron

    remember that the US are protecting their own interests. They are highly embarrassed about the breakdown in security. That is a problem for them, not us.

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