The sample size (550 respondents) and margin of error (about 4.2 per cent) are such that you would want to treat it with caution, but a new Morgan phone poll has turned up remarkably poor results for the government: Labor’s primary vote is on just 30 per cent against 47 per cent for the Coalition and 13.5 per cent for the Greens, with the Coalition leading on two-party preferred 55-45. The poll was conducted over Wednesday and Thursday evenings.
UPDATE: Morgan has issued further data on personal ratings which shows Julia Gillard failing to take the hit on personal ratings you would expect from the numbers on voting intention, which further inclines me to treat the poll with suspicion. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is 48 per cent with 39 per cent disapproval, while Tony Abbott’s numbers are 48 per cent and 41 per cent. Gillard holds a 46-40 lead as preferred prime minister. Respondents were also asked to nominate their preferred leaders for the Labor and Liberal parties. Julia Gillard is favoured as Labor leader by 33 per cent against 20 per cent for Kevin Rudd, compared with 35 per cent and 25 per cent shortly after the federal election. Malcolm Turnbull remains favoured ahead of Tony Abbott as Liberal leader overall, by 31 per cent (down a point) to 23 per cent (up two). In both cases supporters of the party were happier with the incumbent. If Gillard were removed from the picture, 27 per cent would favour Rudd, 14 per cent Wayne Swan, 13 per cent Stephen Smith and 11 per cent Bill Shorten. Without Abbott, 39 per cent would favour Turnbull, 30 per cent Joe Hockey and 11 per cent Julie Bishop.
Wiki-bore, wiki-snore
I gather issues tend to take time to be reflected in polls.
bg
What Gillard really needs like a hole in the head would be
1. The Brits not extraditing Assange
2. Him coming back to Australia
3. The US then wanting him extradited
That would be ugly
[I gather issues tend to take time to be reflected in polls.]
Yep. Like the oceanic viking episode, the dumping of the ets, gretchgate etc.
[Monash would really be the pick though. It has a campus life and provides all those other uni experiences that are dissappearing from tertiary ed.]
Monash campus seemed awful when I was doing a grad diploma out there in the early 90’s.
I went back and gave a couple of lectures there a year or two back though and it seemed far, far better. Certainly much more going on there than there ever seems to be at La Trobe (where my younger daughter finished her own bachelor’s degree this year – assuming the results are as she expects them when they arrive in a few days time! ). La Trobe these days is just B&*^%$ awful from what I can see in the “student life” department.
[2. Him coming back to Australia]
Would be a bad move on his part, since it’s obvious that this govt would be determined to extradite him one way or another once the US comes up with a charge.
Rod
I went to both Monash and RMIT in the midlate 90s
Monash had an excellent campus life. At RMIT every one left immediately after class and the culture was very dull.
Diogenes@2653
I hope Assange does come back to Aus and the US then seeks his extradition. Given there is no legal basis for extradition, that will test out the government. That mole Arbib would be frothing at the mouth if we refused, for one.
Quiz
Who said this? (no googling)
[“Her comments were made outside of Parliament so they’re certainly not privileged, and I think it was misguided to suggest that he had committed a crime in England and, indeed, defamatory,” she said.
“Although I think that Prime Minister Gillard’s account will probably come at the ballot box.”]
I wonder how the above person thought the PMs account will come at the ballot box. Is it a threat or a premonition?
Was it Shy?
JB
blue-green:
Too easy. One of Assange’s lawyers.
vik@2546
Q: And who is legally responsible for the Wikileaks site and the person that will be charged with placing the cables on the site?
A: Assange.
I rest my case, M’Lord
You don’t have to actually name a person, inference can be enough. It’s not as if anyone else from wikileaks has been mentioned.
But, I’ll concede that McClelland will have much more to answer for than Gillard.
bg
Frank? 😀
[blue-green:
Too easy. One of Assange’s lawyers.]
The winner!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/12/07/3086962.htm
[At RMIT every one left immediately after class and the culture was very dull.]
That seems to pretty much be the way at LaTrobe , I’m afraid, too, these days.
The coalition will hold both houses of parliament in Victoria. I wonder if Baillieu and his colleagues can resist Howard Hubris and not let the power go to their heads. Vic is going to be very interesting to watch the next few years.
I wonder if Assange et al has saved up a cache of damaging cables for an election campaign.
[The coalition will hold both houses of parliament in Victoria. I wonder if Baillieu and his colleagues can resist Howard Hubris and not let the power go to their heads. Vic is going to be very interesting to watch the next few years.]
I doubt it.
[Vic is going to be very interesting to watch the next few years.]
Only if you don’t live here 😛
b-g/Rod Hagen
My daughter went to all the university open days. She liked Swinburne best of all. She said that the people there were great and the whole ambience excellent. She has older friends at different unis, and it appears the happiest are at Swinburne.
On the above.
I suspect Ted is unlikely to take on any radical reforms. I doubt he has a radical bone in his body.
[victoria
Posted Monday, December 13, 2010 at 12:16 pm | Permalink
b-g/Rod Hagen
My daughter went to all the university open days. She liked Swinburne best of all. She said that the people there were great and the whole ambience excellent. She has older friends at different unis, and it appears the happiest are at Swinburne.]
Thats great 🙂
blue-green:
I don’t share your faith in Ted. I guess time will tell.
[1. What Aussies think about Wikileaks
2. What Aussies think about the Government’s response to Wikileaks]
b_g has answered this succinctly.
[Wiki-bore, wiki-snore]
Ted’s a real man of action.
So far he’s organised some Parking clear way times to be changed and banned alchohol from the Opening of Parliament.
This Liberal Government is going to be a wild ride.
b_g
Apparently he has great patience and waits until he can take his chance (Age Report). Also, he has an impatient team around him who will be delighted to “change things”.
OTOH, the Nats and the libs don’t agree over everything so all the reversals of policy may not come to pass.
blue_green@2669
Damaging to what? And why?
Ted has the problem of sitting on a thin majority whereas Howard had more breathing space and more confidence. I think Ted will do whatever is popular and avoid the unpopular as much as possible.
jv –
It will *test* the Brit court system as well, along with related entities. Assuming he is not in Sweden by then.
[blue-green:
I don’t share your faith in Ted. I guess time will tell.]
I haven’t even seen a twinkle of radicalism or Kennett or Howard in his eye.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/12/13/3091634.htm?section=justin
Assange says Pentagon plans prosecution
[One of his British lawyers, Jennifer Robinson, said a US indictment of Assange was imminent, but offered no further details or comment why she believed charges were likely to be filed.]
It wouldn’t be ugly the rule of law would apply smart money on him being extradited.
[amaging to what? And why?]
His lawyer did say that Gillards account will come at the Ballot box- Immediately after the lawyer accused JG of defamation.
Can anyone tell me the last time an Australian born citizen was extradited to anywhere from Australia.
I remember the alleged nazi war criminals. But even that required special Acts of Parliament.
I’m also aware that a few Australian residents have been exported back to their country of birth because of criminal activities.
dave@2681
Yes, and the real test would be in whether the government attempts to hands him over regardless if the court denies the application on legal grounds.
[I haven’t even seen a twinkle of radicalism or Kennett or Howard in his eye.]
Nor have I. My concern is whether he can stand up to the idealogues in his partyroom.
confessions
Snap.
[Nor have I. My concern is whether he can stand up to the idealogues in his partyroom.]
Are there any? I certainly couldn’t name them.
Gary@2680
I haven’t heard or read a single article about how *precarious* the new victorian governments hold on power is, how a by-election (or more) could sweep them from power etc.
There were hundreds of such articles post the recent federal election….
[Nor have I. My concern is whether he can stand up to the idealogues in his partyroom.]
Nup, he won. They lost.
They can sit back and grumble. They, like Bolta, thought he was too wet to win. They were wrong, he was right.
He managed to hold them back despite never looking like winning. Now that he has won, they can go suck eggs.
GG,
There have been quite a few cases of extradition. But I think the question will be in this case “what law”, “does the law extend to overseas citizens where the crime was committed on foreign soil”, and “what evidence”.
It is the shades of grey in an international, internet world that I believe will fail this time around. However, I suspect that this might be the wake up call the world requires to finally extend the existing laws to cater for a newly wired world.
[Are there any? I certainly couldn’t name them.]
Andrew Bolt, Andrew Robb?
😆
Jasmine@2684
On what basis has the ‘smart money’ been wagered? The obvious US non-political law that Assange has clearly transgressed? Knowledge of a forthcoming retrospective law that the US is to pass and then attempt to have Assange extradited to face? Do tell.
[I haven’t heard or read a single article about how *precarious* the new victorian governments hold on power is, how a by-election (or more) could sweep them from power etc.]
Me either dave. All it takes is one coalition seat to change hands in the Lower House and a general election is on.
sk,
Name me one.
[Andrew Bolt, Andrew Robb?]
You have a point there b_g.
[Me either dave. All it takes is one coalition seat to change hands in the Lower House and a general election is on.]
And new govts have the unfortunate habit of losing indiscrete ministers.
Charles Zentai was the last one I remember who’s extradition order was overturned by the courts.
[The court found that the government did not have the jurisdiction to order Zentai to be extradited]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Zentai