Morgan: 54-46 to Labor

The latest Morgan poll, combining responses from face-to-face surveys of 1862 respondents from the last two weekends, has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 54-46, although their primary vote is down two points to 41 per cent. The Coalition is down half a point to 40 per cent, with the Greens up 1.5 per cent to 12 per cent. The margin of sampling error on the sample is about 2.3 per cent, but this is a lot less meaningful than Morgan face-to-face polls’ obvious house bias to Labor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

662 comments on “Morgan: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. The NBN report will be OK: the indies in the HoR know what they are doing. The Senate may ask or demand but they will be ignored.

    The report will be released when the government wants to do so. If either house wants to come back in December, it can. The Senate might, the Reps won’t.

  3. [The cross bench in the senate has grabed the theme. Ask them what a cost benefit analysis is ? Then ask them is this information not already out there ?]
    I thought it laughable when the Rabbott screamed across the parliament that the government had been in receipt of the report for several days. “Surely they can read a 400 page document within that time or are they hiding something.”
    They know all about the due process of such an endeavour. What they are doing is whipping up the mindset/perception that the government is trying to deceive the voters.
    In doing so, they have prompted the Indies & Greens to react.
    The purpose is twofold. Create a perception that there are problems with NBN policy & to cause a fracture within the ranks of independants/Greens & ALP.

  4. Actually I have not sighted Abbott on the news for ages – I don’t watch a lot of TV news, but I have noticed a decrease in the Abbott Index.

    Have we finally reached “Peak Abbott”?

  7. Oh dear, not satisfied with Royal Wedding, Irish Economy in tattered, and now they want to win the Ashes as well. If Punters and his pretenders cannot retain the Ashes, they should be sent to Moreton Bay and flogged 50 times each.

    [Ian Botham predicts England victory over ‘poor’ Australia – Australia are a poor side and could be ripe for the picking by England in the Ashes series starting next week, according to former England skipper and all rounder Ian Botham. Botham, who played in the last English side to win an Ashes series on Australian soil in 1986-87, told the December edition of Wisden magazine that he felt uncertainty in the home team’s camp was playing into the visitors’ hands.

    “Australia are a poor side, I really don’t think they are very good,” he said. “There’s in-fighting, there’s whinging, they are moaning about who should be captain. This is wonderful for English cricket. ]

    http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/cricket/ian-botham-predicts-england-victory-over-poor-australia-2137481.html

    It’s time they stop being a marketing company and start playing decent cricket.

  10. Remember what they said abot Tubby’s side going to England in 1989? Worst Oz side ever. Remember what they said about Peter May’s poms in Aussie in 1958-59 (yes, I remember)? Best pom side ever. The results are history.

  11. GG, those Pommy bastards are a greedy lot. Now they want to chuck away Chucky as well. If Chucky and Horsey will move to Australia, we will have him as our King and Queen 😉

    [LONDON – PRINCE William and his fiancee Kate Middleton should be Britain’s next king and queen, not the heir to the throne Prince Charles and his wife Camilla, the Duchess of Cornwall, two polls showed on Saturday.

    An ICM poll, published in Britain’s News of the World newspaper, showed that 64 per cent of people wanted Prince William and his future bride as next in line to the throne, while a YouGov poll in the Sunday Times found the majority of Britons thought Prince William would make a better king than his father Charles.

    Prince Charles, 62, is currently next in line to the throne, now occupied by his mother Queen Elizabeth, 84. The British public has no say in who should be their next king or queen, a largely symbolic role in a country run as a parliamentary democracy.

    The ICM survey also found that fewer than one in five people wanted the crown to pass to Prince Charles and Camilla. The YouGov poll showed that 44 per cent of people thought Prince Charles should make way for his son to become the next king, against 37 per cent who thought he should not.

    William and Middleton, both aged 28, announced their engagement this week, the photogenic couple drawing extensive media coverage.

    Prince Charles is seen by some as too old to inject vitality in the monarchy should he eventually succeed his mother. Prince Charles’s wife Camilla is nowhere near as popular as his first wife, Princess Diana, who died in a car crash in 1997 after they had divorced. The surveys come a day after Prince Charles, in a television interview, said Camilla could be queen if he is crowned king. — REUTERS]

  12. Finns,

    I’ve always liked Charles.

    I think it’s the dealing with the fact that the only way you can advance in life is for your mother to die.

  14. [two polls showed on Saturday.]
    Of course the definition of a monarchy is that polls and voters don’t count!

    I am amused at Monarchists who proclaim that Charles should “pass” on the monarchy – they don’t really like Charles but guess what – they are stuck with him! If you believe in a hereditary Monarchy then you have to accept what it throws up. In any case, I think it would be very unfair on poor William to have to take it all on in a few years when he is recently married and maybe has his first children.

  15. [604 Rocket Rocket
    Posted Sunday, November 21, 2010 at 6:48 pm | Permalink
    Actually I have not sighted Abbott on the news for ages – I don’t watch a lot of TV news, but I have noticed a decrease in the Abbott Index.

    Have we finally reached “Peak Abbott”?]

    yes may be channel 10 where the only ones two lots of news and no abbott at the beach

  17. Be afraid and very very afraid. Cricket is now a medal sport the at the 2010 Asian Games. It was pushed by Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.

    I think Cricket Australia is also very active in China promoting cricket.

    [GUANGZHOU (China) – MALAYSIA crushed China by 89 runs with a blistering display of power hitting in the first ever men’s cricket match played on Chinese soil at the Asian Games on Sunday.

    Malaysia racked up a total of 162-8 in their 20 overs after being put into bat and the host nation had no answer in reply, struggling to 73-8.

    Malaysia’s score was largely due to the big-hitting of Rakesh Madhavan, who notched a sparkling 68 off 58 balls, including five fours and a six.

    Manrick Singh injected urgency into the innings late on, hitting a quickfire 36 off just 15 balls, including four towering sixes, in front of a sizeable crowd.

    Both of the top-scoring batsmen were out in the final over but China were left with a mountain to climb in the Pool C fixture, needing to score at more than eight an over.

    They struggled to eke out runs against some tight Malaysian bowling and fielding, reaching just 37-1 at the midway point of their innings as the required run rate rocketed. — AFP]

  18. Interesting how Phil and Charles have many times come into the news for some “unusual” comments. EIIR has had zero controversy. Mind you, the royal ladies have not been error free: Mam’s sister and the “I can get you access if you pay me” girl.

  26. Anyone commented on JG’s schedule? Perhaps, someone has said: “If jet lag is good enough for Tony why doesn’t Julia? Is she a prima donna, or what?”

  27. Mmmmm… 😆 😆

    [Hitler commissioned outlandish weapons
    Grew desperate as war drew to a close
    Claim that Nazi UFO even flew over UK
    AS Hitler’s armies began to crumble he turned in increasing desperation to his scientists to create a war-winning super-weapon.

    Some, like the V2 rockets and the first jet fighters, saw action but came too late to halt defeat.

    Others were so outrageously ambitious that they never got past the drawing board.

    The idea of building flying saucers to bomb London and even New York could have been just such a scheme.

    Now it is claimed Hitler’s scientists were so far advanced with the project a prototype may have flown up the Thames.

    The program, under the command of SS officer Hans Kammler, was said to have made breakthroughs in anti-gravity, according to a report in the German science magazine PM.

    [It quotes witnesses who saw a flying saucer marked with the Iron Cross flying low over the Thames in 1944.]

    Related CoverageCamouflage: Diggers disappear Hitler’s plan to bomb world with UFOs
    “The Americans also treated the existence of the weapons seriously,” it said.

    The magazine said the Germans destroyed much of the paperwork on their activities but in 1960, Canadian UFO experts managed to recreate the device which, to their amazement, “did actually fly”.]

  29. dear PBs

    from my own observations to MM anti labor campaign is as tough and damaging as ever – my subjects are elderly and retired, and the vitriol they pick up (not sure where) is astounding – anything JG does is damned esp overseas trips – it’d be good to know if mining and media funds are pouring in still – abbot would not talk of ready for govt unless backed up – of course one is assured JG is best to survive the test, but really we all agree last 18month media is the most distressing ever in this country (except perhaps early 50’s, but that was all about mines also wasn’t it?)

  32. as far as NBN goes it would be nice to ask details even ask for a business plan without feeling one was helping demolish the thing. for instance, how much download required to stream HD TV as consumed by average family? will uncapped download plans be available, and at what cost? tetrabyte monthly plans now available at $99 – is that enough for full video usage? can the system cope with unlimited use by unlimited consumers (assume answer is yes), or will it reach capacity like electricity? is current planning assuming current usage, not the vastly increased usage required and encouraged by high quality television and videoconference etc. Forget 20G plans. These are constructive questions but the opposition hell bent on using questions to destroy what is basically a great infrastructure. ps where on earth are greens on all of this – sitting on fence – nice to hear strong endorsement along with their support of turnbull’s demands for plan

  33. geoffrey,

    Labor is working towards getting re-elected. It’s a long time to 2013. Labor is remaining true to its compact with the Greens and the independents: it will last.

  34. Geoffrey
    Neanderthal Rabbott would rather be out engaging in social sporting events in his budget smugglers. He, & his team are just too butt lazy to nut out comprehensive policies of their own.
    Attacking & destroying is all they have got going in their favour, oh & of course a complicit media.
    The Rabbott is just biding his time, what he cannot destroy the media will & he will be handed the crown of which he feels is his birthright.

  35. geoffrey @632,

    I think you are missing the short- to long-term connection. Labor WILL get the NBN in train. Labor WILL present the progress, come 2013 and, by the end of this year, Labor WILL have put the dumwits and X and F in the clown light.

  37. Imagine the poor polling state the Phoney Rabbott would be in if he didn’t have the media on his side:

    News Ltd
    Their ABC
    Talkback Rednecks
    Commercial TV

  38. Cuppa,

    From where would the peeps get their opinions?

    I know, “social intercourse”. From tha,t would be that so many would say that they do not have a sufficient wealth of Australia (if they could put those words together) and vote as per usual. No difference.

  39. VP,

    If there isn’t healthy diversity in media voices we get a virtual one-party media.

    A one-party right-wing media leads the country in only one direction. Fascism.

  40. Interesting. Went to a do last night. Met a paint contractor. He did a job on Julia’s (current?) flat. No one restricted him; “close the door on the way out.” He said: “I need to work on the balcony.” “No probs.”

    Before that, with any pollie jobs, it had always been “I have to be there to supervise” and “No, don’t go on the balcony; security would be upset.”

    Shows, I guess.

  41. Cuppa
    How did Aussie media get to this point where those of us who are not conservatives have no voice, no outlet in the mainstream.
    And for the life of me I cannot see the appeal to the wider public of people such as Alan Jones. Do his listeners actually know who the real Jones is, his history? It’s almost like a disease that has infested every facet of the media. I posted an article last week which was lamenting the rise & infiltration across the globe of the extreme right wing forces in MSM.

  44. Dee,

    I’d say most of the dimwits who listen don’t know who the real Jones is. They know only what he wants them to know – and they suck it right up (if you’ll pardon the pun). If they had the ability to think for themselves they wouldn’t be listening to his brainwashing sessions. Like him or loathe him his influence cannot be underestimated.

  45. VP,

    [There is no “healthy diversity in media” and will not be for many years; Queen Mary principle.]

    It’s worse right now than I’ve ever seen it. The ABC dropping all semblance of balance to join (and, in many cases, lead) the pro-Liberal rah-rah crowd – for its deleterious effect on democracy – is the Crime of the Century, in my view. There’s an Act of Parliament requiring them to be balanced and independent for gods sake! It appears to count for nought. 😡

  46. [644 CuppaPosted Sunday, November 21, 2010 at 9:16 pm | PermalinkDee,
    I’d say most of the dimwits who listen don’t know who the real Jones is. They know only what he wants them to know – and they suck it right up (if you’ll pardon the pun). If they had the ability to think for themselves they wouldn’t be listening to his brainwashing sessions. Like him or loathe him his influence cannot be underestimated.
    ]

    Indeed and that goes to his colleagues like Mike Williams where several here and on Twitter have challenged him, and are mocked/Talked over and eventually cut off.

    In fact one Twitterer was told by Mike’s producer early this morning “promise you won’t make Mike look stupid”.

  47. Dee,

    My diagnosis is that people listen to and watch that which shovels to their particular thought (some of which are prejudices)

    The msm have tuned into this very effectively. It is only when the peeps have become sufficiently bored with or have become sufficinently “poorer” that they will change their votes. ’72 and ’07 are cases in point.

  49. Dio

    Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

    kate with penbo

    I give up

    🙁

  50. Frank @ 646

    I listened to “Mad Mike” for a while last night and Friday night and he was fairly docile. Do you think the efforts of Gus, Henry and others may have made him tone it down a bit?

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