Morgan: 54-46 to Labor

The latest Morgan poll, combining responses from face-to-face surveys of 1862 respondents from the last two weekends, has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 54-46, although their primary vote is down two points to 41 per cent. The Coalition is down half a point to 40 per cent, with the Greens up 1.5 per cent to 12 per cent. The margin of sampling error on the sample is about 2.3 per cent, but this is a lot less meaningful than Morgan face-to-face polls’ obvious house bias to Labor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

662 comments on “Morgan: 54-46 to Labor”

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  3. 2PP : ALP 54%, Coalition 46%

    1st pref: ALP 41%, Coalition 40%, Greens 12%, Others/Indies 7%

    Now if only the rest of the polls could regularly record figures like this.

    We would then know that the natural order of things had returned.

    There would be a good chance of that too if the likes of Howes, Richardson, et al could crawl back in their respective holes!

  5. [Tom HawkinsPosted Friday, November 19, 2010 at 7:46 pm | PermalinkNews Corp to charge for online papers
    Hopefully the beginning of the end of News Corp influence.
    ]

    Their ABC will be devestated 🙂

    They may be forced to actually file stories all on their own 🙂

  6. Diogenes (earlier today)
    [Kissinger’s efforts to prolong the Vietnam War by encouraging South Vietnamese obduracy]
    I always wondered about the Iran hostages also, released on the day of Reagan’s inauguration.

  7. [Their ABC will be devestated]

    Spot on Frank. Maybe Murdoch will also restrict his opinion piece tosser journalists appearances on ABC TV. Cassidy, Frau Bailey and Co wouldn’t have the guts to display their usual biased comments if they were the only voices in the studio.

  9. [Tonight’s episode of the Daily Show with Jon Stewart was brilliant. It was about Rupert Murdoch.]

    I normally watch the JS show but missed it tonight. Thanks for the reminder and the link

  10. Their ABC will be devestated 🙂

    They may be forced to actually file stories all on their own

    Not at all. They will just continue to read the dead tree version straight into ABC microphones throughout australia. Its that simple. QED.

    Saves them having to think. Thinking is painful for the *damaged goods ABC*

  13. victoria,

    Judging by their experiences in the UK and their current decline in sales in Australia, I can’t imagine that paywalling will stem the outgoing tide.

  14. SK

    The UK are experiencing financial woes, which would explain some of the decline. Let’s hope us Aussies are just plain stingy 😉

  16. clive is having a splurge for Xmas.

    [MINING mogul Clive Palmer has splurged on his Yabulu workforce, giving away $10 million worth of Christmas bonuses including new Mercedes Benz cars and overseas holidays.

    Mr Palmer has announced he would give away 55 Mercedes Benz sedans, 700 holidays for two in Fiji, and 50 weekends in Port Douglas to his 800-strong workforce.]

    http://www.townsvillebulletin.com.au/article/2010/11/19/186201_news.html

    Methinks the management will get the mercs, the leftovers will be a toss up.

    Much as i detest the prick and his politics at least he is rewarding the lower paid workers, maybe.

  17. Victoria,

    I sent long email about this to the ABC using their contact details on their website. I advocated for the the retention of the 7.30 Report as a serious current affairs show and the importance of such a show for democracy, and for Australians to have access to such information from the public broadcaster to enable them to participate fully in democracy.

    I will see if I get a decent reply.

    There is a reason the rabbott has been hiding in his hole in case the red haired predator should get him. I wouldn’t say it was because he is a craven coward with no more spine than my old rag doll, but I might type it.

  21. PTMD

    Rabbott is a bully when he has the privilege of parliament to rant and rave, but a coward when he has to answer any question with a degree of understanding and honesty.

  22. [Rabbott is a bully when he has the privilege of parliament to rant and rave, but a coward when he has to answer any question with a degree of understanding and honesty.]
    The shallow, lazy bully goes to water as soon as he is required to demonstrate anything beyond a rudimentary grasp and understanding of a complex issue (as most things are).

  23. Gaffhook

    Perhaps big Clive owns the resorts in Fiji and Port Douglas, and is looking at giving workers these holidays as a business investment 😉

  25. Tweet from Latika Bourke

    [Watching Hawke. The bonking is too much. Really]

    Poor Latika. Her need to tweet every thought bubble is too much. Really.

  26. [No more Shanahan, Albrectsen, Sheridan and Paul Kelly.]

    Has Shannas been on holidays recently? I can’t remember seeing an article by him in a while.

    And what happened to the inevitable JA rant about the High Court decisions on AS and bikies? I can’t remember seeing that either.

  27. I think a number of you are missing the point re the Murdoch paywall.

    Why would they not continue to feed information to ABC? Once they’ve got content hidden behind the paywall their next objective is to make it attractive enough for people to seek it out. They have the perfect propaganda arm in the ABC. I seriously doubt they’d give that up. They’ll just mix it up a bit so that we don’t get everything.

    I’d love to think the ABC would move on to alternative sources of information, but I suspect the Murdoch tentacles are too deeply wound around it for that to happen.

  28. I’d love to think the ABC would move on to alternative sources of information, but I suspect the Murdoch tentacles are too deeply wound around it for that to happen.

    Correct. The ABC is now just *Damaged Goods*

    Its very doubtful it can ever be repaired. It is so infested with murdochs mob.

  29. I’m sure Murdoch’s political agenda is in synch with that of the right wingers that infest ABC’s Board and management. A conservative-Liberal Party-Murdoch boosting exercise.

  30. With respect to News Ltd., the ABC online have posted this article on the dispute now occurring on Vic Desal plant. The story was reported in OZ a couple of days ago. It is too much of a coincidence not to be skeptical, that it was to disrupt the State Labor Govt here in Victoria.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/11/19/3071744.htm?section=justin

    The interesting aspect to all this, is that the Herald Sun online does not have it as its main story.

    I will reserve my judgment until I see tomorrow’s Herald Sun, but if it is not the top story, it means that here in Vic. News Ltd are not going against the State govt.

  31. Vic

    That story isn’t really anti-Labor. It looks like the company has some explaining to do. The workers are on strike. Something is going on.

  32. [“Let me give a simple economics lesson to the Prime Minister,” Abbott thundered—causing even some Coalition MPs to titter.]
    😆 😆 😆

  33. Diogenes

    It is a State Govt project. The fact is that there is now a dispute and the workers have downed tools. The narrative will be that the unions are asking for trouble and the project will cost more, take longer, who is going to pay. Is the taxpayer going to be stuck with the bill? Do you see why I believe the OZ decided to go with this story one week prior to the election. It was to create a problem for the govt. Hopefully, it may backfire. Dean Mighell of the ETU has basically said that he believes the govt had no knowledge of this situation. You have to remember at Federal election this same union, withdrew their funding and support to the Labor party. Perhaps, those wishing to create trouble were counting on the ETU going against State Labor as well.

    Get my drift?

  34. [victoriaPosted Friday, November 19, 2010 at 9:30 pm | PermalinkDiogenes
    It is a State Govt project. The fact is that there is now a dispute and the workers have downed tools. The narrative will be that the unions are asking for trouble and the project will cost more, take longer, who is going to pay. Is the taxpayer going to be stuck with the bill? Do you see why I believe the OZ decided to go with this story one week prior to the election. It was to create a problem for the govt. Hopefully, it may backfire. Dean Mighell of the ETU has basically said that he believes the govt had no knowledge of this situation. You have to remember at Federal election this same union, withdrew their funding and support to the Labor party. Perhaps, those wishing to create trouble were counting on the ETU going against State Labor as well.
    Get my drift?
    ]

    Oh Dio one daring to challenge his beloved News Ltd ??

    If you believe that – then I have this bridge for sale.

  36. Dee,

    How true. I am constantly amazed at RAbbotts inability to grasp even the most simple of concepts. I am sure that he thinks the BS drummed up by his PR reps is true and that he simply has to be him to succeed!

  38. OzPol Tragic
    Posted Friday, November 19, 2010 at 9:45 am | Permalink

    “Like Hitchins, OH & I believe that, if we can spread the warning about these “unsexy” and, in the case of OH’s version, most rampantly increasing cancers, and save but one life, give but one family the early warnings we received when medical emergencies led to early diagnoses, and spend quality time together, he will not have died in vain. Please help us do that (details in a following post)

    He was my North, my South, my East and West,
    My working week and my Sunday rest,
    My noon, my midnight, my talk, my song;
    I thought that love would last for ever: I was wrong.

    W H Auden ”

    sorry for loss OzTragic and add

    ‘ but then again reflecting , I was not wrong ,
    my memorys is everlasting & that is my song ‘

  41. MEDIA companies are fooling themselves if they expect people to meet “the real, direct cost of providing news”.
    This is according to the editor of London’s Guardian newspaper, Alan Rusbridger.

    Rusbridger, who tonight delivered the annual Andrew Olle media lecture in Sydney, said he would not criticise Rupert Murdoch’s plan to charge for access to information gathered by News Corporation staff.

    But he also described the “very large, very powerful, very aggressive” Murdoch press as having a “chilling” effect on democracy, and of scaring the wits out of politicians, and even of police.

    For full story:

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/media/people-wont-pay-all-news-costs-guardian-editor-alan-rusbridger/story-e6frg996-1225956820340

    “Our web traffic last month averaged just over 2 million unique browsers a day,” Rusbridger said.

    By contrast, the Murdoch-owned London Times, which has put up a paywall, has seen its traffic fall by around 95 per cent.

    Start of sidebar. Skip to end of sidebar.
    Related CoverageFULL TEXT: Rusbridger’s speech
    .End of sidebar. Return to start of sidebar.
    “That’s not a criticism of The Times: that path may well make sense for how they see the future,” he said.

    “I won’t criticise people who want to try (that) path. You can’t against attempts to find alternative ways of financing what we do. I’ve always argued that it’s a good thing that different organisations are trying different routes to the future. The jury on the relative financial models for different approaches will remain out for a while yet.”

  43. So Uncle Rupe wants to put up the Paywall to deny us the wisdom of Shanahan, Albrectsen, Sheridan, Paul Kelly. Pier, Bolty etc. Please dont cry for me Uncle Rupe. i am laughing all the way to my ignorance.

    [The splintering of the fourth estate – Media organisations are trying various routes to the future – the Guardian’s is firmly an open and collaborative one – This is a transcript from the Andrew Olle lecture 2010 given by Alan Rusbridger in Sydney, Australia on 19 November.

    Virtually every adult over the age of 30 grew up with the idea that the fourth estate consisted of just two parts – press and broadcasting. Each was owned, financed and regulated in different ways and each gave rise to different ideas of what journalism was.

    The privately owned press was, in general, more opinionated, partisan, politically engaged and lightly regulated, if at all. Broadcasting – whether publicly financed or commercial – usually came with the requirement that it strove for impartiality. It had an obligation to reflect all parts of the political spectrum and special duties to cover news that, left to the market alone, wouldn’t be covered.

    There was much to cherish in the balances and tensions inherent in this duopoly. A reader or viewer could measure the message of one medium against the other. There was the tent peg of attempted impartiality by which to measure the wild west of the printed word.

    But now there’s a new kid on the block. A third wing to the fourth estate, if that’s not too mixed a metaphor. You could even argue there are two new kids on the block – the original world wide web (essentially another form of transmission) and web 2.0, the advent and rapid maturing of so-called social, or open, media. No one owns the digital space and it is barely regulated. It brings with it an entirely new idea of what journalism is – indeed, for some, it calls into question whether there is any such distinct thing as “journalism”, a theme I tried to tackle in my Cudlipp lecture in January this year.]

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/nov/19/open-collaborative-future-journalism

  46. Finns,

    Fairfax are about to introduce changes (they have yet to announce what they will be) as well. Be interesting to see how this pans out, but this is definitely what they call an ‘inflection point’ in this industry.

  47. [DeePosted Friday, November 19, 2010 at 9:58 pm | Permalink95% drop in traffic to Murdoch owned London Times after the paywall introduction? Bring it on!
    ]

    And those 2GB listeners will have had their talking points silenced – they are not the type who are willing to pay for the online version of the Terror from work.

  50. Gus, Finns,

    He could set up a ‘wholesale model’ and actually start selling anti-government opinion to a government financed broadcaster.

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