The latest bi-monthly Newspoll survey of NSW state voting intention finds Labor plumbing lows previously undreamt of, as graphically illustrated by The Australian. The Coalition’s two-party lead is equal to that recorded by federal Labor in the poll of February 29-March 2, but otherwise unprecedented in Newspoll history – remembering that NSW’s optional preferential voting system is likely to make matters even worse for Labor by starving them of Greens preferences.
Labor’s primary vote has fallen two points on the previous two surveys to 23 per cent, for which The Australian’s Imre Salusinszky can only identify one precedent: the 22 per cent recorded by the Queensland Nationals in 1989, which hardly seems applicable as it coexisted with a 25 per cent vote for the Liberals. More instructive is that Labor’s vote is below the nadirs of John Bannon and Joan Kirner, who on various occasions recorded 25 per cent. The Coalition meanwhile is steady on 46 per cent, while the Greens tide continues with a three point gain to 17 per cent – just six points shy of Labor.
Barry O’Farrell has also leapt to a 42-35 lead as preferred premier, after drawing level on 39 per cent in the previous poll. His approval rating has spiked five points to 48 per cent, with disapproval steady on 32 per cent. Kristina Keneally on the other hand is up six points on disapproval to 50 per cent, with her approval rating steady on 39 per cent.
44 – A party needs very close to 50% of the vote for two consecutive elections to have a majority in the LegCo. It’s designed so that no party has a majority. If today’s poll are replicated on election day though, the LibNats may well win 9 or 10 seats, plus their 8 from the last election (total, 17 or 18). If they win 18, that will mean that they will need either all the Greens or, hypothetically, the 2 Shooters and 2 Christian Party MLCs (assuming all are re-elected) to be able to pass legislation. If they win 9 seats for a total of 17, which is far more likely, they would not be able to pass legislation without support from Labor or both the Greens plus either a Shooter or Christian MP. I think it’s pretty important that the LegCo doesn’t end up with Fred Nile or the Shooters holding the balance of power between them. It would certainly see a strong rightward swing in Liberal Party politics (even for NSW). I’m certainly going to number all the boxes above the line in the LegCo so that I can put those parties last.
Hamish, a landslide is on the cards in NSW. Ain’t nothin’ gonna stop it now.
Gary
NSW Labor is an arrogant and inept government. They have turned our largest, best educated and wealthiest State into an economic basket case. Remember what the Sydney economy was like after the Olympics? But they aren’t simply inept. They are deeply corrupt, and compromised by links to developers and other figures that block the public interest. Public inquiries find evidence of corruption and theft (eg Sydney rail) and people don’t even lose their jobs, let alone go to jail.
If a landslide is the only way to clean them out, then I hope that IS what happens. The NSW Labor right cares about enacting Labor policy and principles about as much as John Howard did. They don’t benefit progressive politics. This matters for more than NSW. They damage the whole parties brand nationally. Via people like Arbib and Bitar, their negative, death spiral methods and policy is now infesting Federal Labor. The Federal result should never have been that bad, with or without Rudd.
Arguments about jumping from the pot to the fire can be used to defend anything. They are meaningless. NSW Labor has been shown to be corrupt. Healthy democracy demands they be cleaned out, and a lot of public service chiefs too. The powerbase of people like Tripodi has to go. If the Libs are incompetent, they can be thrown out in four years too.
Other examples show that landslide defeats can cause major change. Look at the Canadian conservatives, nearly wiped out in 2001, were back again by 2006, with new leadership. That is what NSW Labor needs. They couldn’t clean themselves up, so the voters have to do the job. I have faith in the voters 🙂
I have thought long and hard on the best way for the ALP to run a strategy under these circumstances.
It came to me as I sat here and the kids were watching some movie set on the high seas –
“Every man for himself!”
[“Every man for himself!”]
Judging from the number of people not contesting their seats, you are not alone in that view 🙂
[Hamish, a landslide is on the cards in NSW. Ain’t nothin’ gonna stop it now.]
Seems very likely, but the LegCo is a different beast. While Labor obviously can’t win it, I do want to see a Labor/Green majority there. The thought of the Christian Dems and Shooters holding the balance of power scares me beyond words.
I note that Labor has withdrawn support from the Shooters plan for no more national parks, which I think shows whose preferences they’re looking for in March.
http://www.northernstar.com.au/story/2010/10/29/fishing-bill-support-withdrawn-ecofishers-keneally/
kakuru
[The inner-city seat of Sydney is held by an Indie, who also happens to be Lord Mayor.]
Tell me about it; the evil queen of Sydney is my local member 🙁
Roy Orbison
Heffron looks very safe for Labor. But today, I went to the (new?) shopping centre up at Danks Street, and judging by the shops and all the new apartments at the top end of the division, the green/non-labor vote might have structurally moved up
[NSW Labor is an arrogant and inept government.]
If you read what I said I think you’ll find I have not said any different. What I am saying is don’t replace one inept, arrogant government with another by giving the next government a blank cheque. Keep the bastards honest. You don’t do that by obliterating the opposition.
mmmmmm…just looking at Heffron in the 2007 election, Greens came close to overtaking Liberals into second place.
Should there be enough defectors from Labor to Greens, it could be a Green chance?!
[ Party Votes %
——————————————————————–
ALP 56.4
Grn 19.7
Ind 2.1
Lib 21.8]
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/states/nsw/nsw20072.txt
Heffron has certainly seen a lot of new developments (including where I live) and is actually quite a bit over quota, along with Sydney.
http://www.elections.nsw.gov.au/state_government_elections/redistribution_of_boundaries/state_district_enrolment_statistics
While it seems common logic that Clover is safe for life, she has upset a lot of people in her current term as Mayor. While she should still be strongly odds on, I would say that she will be more strongly challenged in this election than any in the past 12 years at least.
59# In theory yes, but only if Lib voters preference them, which I don’t think will happen.
@60
Who would her seat be most likely to fall to; Libs, Labor or Greens? It contains some good areas for all three.
[Other examples show that landslide defeats can cause major change. Look at the Canadian conservatives, nearly wiped out in 2001, were back again by 2006, with new leadership.]
Canada? No good examples here? Qld maybe under Joh? Victoria under Bracks? NSW under various Labor leaders? What happened to those oppositions and governments?
Hamish
Have the Liberals made a statement as to their preferencing?
Hamish
[she has upset a lot of people in her current term as Mayor.]
Funnily enough, I was chatting about Clover a week or 2 a go with someone who said exactly the same thing (assuming it wasn’t you! :lol:)
[This matters for more than NSW. They damage the whole parties brand nationally. Via people like Arbib and Bitar, their negative, death spiral methods and policy is now infesting Federal Labor. The Federal result should never have been that bad, with or without Rudd.]
Except that Qld was where Federal Labor was really let down, not NSW.
Victorian Labor is a good example.
Kennett won two landslides, got carried away and thought he was invincible, and voters booted him out. Labor were wiped out in 1992 but were able to offer a viable alternative only seven years later. People will boot out incompetent or arrogant governments no matter how safe they appear.
Plus the onus is on NSW Labor to get their act together and offer a genuine alternative in 2015 and 2019. The onus is not on the voters to go easy on Labor under the guise of “keeping the Liberals in check”
Gary
[If you read what I said I think you’ll find I have not said any different. What I am saying is don’t replace one inept, arrogant government with another by giving the next government a blank cheque. Keep the bastards honest. You don’t do that by obliterating the opposition.]
If you read what I said, they are arrogant, inept and corrupt. You don’t make a corrupt government go straight by re-electing them. Qld learnt that after Joh.
If I am wrong, then the defeated Labor right power-brokers will retire to their modest workers cottages near Parramatta and enjoy the company of their worker friends, just as Chifley would have done.
62# I think there lies for the problem for the Greens and Libs. If Keneally loses votes, the ones in the Botany Bay LGA, Kensington and parts of the City of Sydney (Rosebery) and more likely to go to the Libs while the ones in Erko, Redfern and the Marrickville LGA to the Greens, which I think will mean that neither party could get close enough to Keneally’s primary vote to challenge without preferences from the other. Keneally will be first or second in all booths, whereas either the Greens and Libs will be a far behind third in all booths, depending on what part of the electorate that booth is. However, I do expect the Greens to come second overall in Heffron.
64# No, they haven’t. If they do choose to preference I imagine they will say that they’re running an open ticket and then change it on polling day, like they do in Victoria. With optional preferences though, they don’t really have much motivation to preference the Greens, so I’d be very surprised if they do.
65# No, it wasn’t me. A lot of people seem to be saying that Clover has had a poor mayoral term to date.
Sorry Hamish, I meant Clover Moore’s seat. I’m pretty sure Keneally would hold on in Heffron.
Sorry if I confused you.
Oh, sorry, I should have noticed that.
I would say that Clover would be at $1.20 to win Sydney, the Greens 10/1, the Libs 15/1 and Labor at 30/1.
If Labor voters preference the Greens, plus the disillusioned Clover voters head Green, they’re most likely, though as I said, it’s still a pretty unlikely prospect.
I’m actually pretty surprised that Clover’s running again, given that she’s 65 this year and one would imagine very busy as Lord Mayor.
Would you give anyone else a shot in Sydney?
Hamish @44: If Turnbull had switched to State politics, yes. What a pity, tempered only by the thought that he must still think he will be Federal leader again to have stayed where he is.
Actually Socrates that is not true. Unemployment has fallen month after month with more and more jobs created in NSW.
But then the NSW people did elect the cardboard cutout Yammer.
Kakuru
The General state of disillusionment of both parties?
Liberals @ 46% ?????? Has there been any ALP government in the last 20 years that got 46% primary vote (apart from ACT/NT)
Independently Thinking 54
Everyman for themselves!!!! Titanic is sinking
Quite appropriate
I think this is one instance where the Liberal might decide it is in their best interest to maximise the number of ALP in parliament and minimise the number of independants
Althrough allowing independants/Greens to get a foothold in traditional ALP seats might make it that much harder for the ALP to be elected in the future
[If Labor voters preference the Greens, plus the disillusioned Clover voters head Green, they’re most likely, though as I said, it’s still a pretty unlikely prospect.]
Might depend on candidates also. Harris comes across to me as pretty undynamic, unimpressive, old school; I dont know if will be the Greens’ candidate this time around (mind you, Greens got Lee Rhianon in the NSW Senate but rather on the party than the candidate methinks)
Sydney inner city from Balmain through to Kingsford (with the possible exception of Canterbury – Linda Burney) will go Green. Count onit.
shepherd marilyn
[Actually Socrates that is not true. Unemployment has fallen month after month with more and more jobs created in NSW.]
Yes, but so what. Like the jokes about economsts, it depends on what you compare NSW to. Job growth in Australia has been great in the past decade, and even in the past two years has been OK since the stimulus got going. NSW has seen job growth but NSW’ share of that growth however, has been low, and greatly exceeded by WA, QLD and Vic. Only SA and TAS have lower participation rates than NSW. Considering
NSW has a younger, better educated populaiton, that is alousy performance.
Latest ABS stats are here. See State comparisons on Page 17:
http://www.ausstats.abs.gov.au/ausstats/meisubs.nsf/0/21C7246259891E6ECA2577B4000F2BBC/$File/62020_sep%202010.pdf
Clover could very well lose over her bike lane disaster which is the most unpopular change in the inner city for decades and assists just a handful of residents.
I’ll be sorry to see the Libs win but if it means Labour cannot run one of their usual ghastly Laura Norder campaigns so beloved of Bob Carr it will be a plus.
Also looking forward to losing the vile current state AG who has banged up so many people without bail. The Liberals will have the whole of the legal fraternity on their side this time.
From a distance, NSW appears to have a bad government which has been in office far too long. Ministerial misdemeanours keep bubbling away.
On the other hand, I bet things are not nearly as bad as they are portrayed. A lot of good things have been done and are still being done. A change of government is unlikely to perform the wonders that are expected by an increasingly unrealistic electorate.
Barack Obama has been in office for less than two years and is painted as the Anti-Christ by mob who took eight years to wreak economic chaos but now bays for overnight solutions.
A government which wins in a landslide immediately becomes arrogant and hubristic. This is not good for democracy.
NSW Labor needs refreshing but I hope that KKK can keep a bit of the silverware.
I seem to recall seeing somewhere that the Liberals are going to recommend preferencing the Greens in the inner city at the 2011 election.
You know the depth of Labor’s problems when the member for Wallsend feels she has to distance herself from the government:
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/water-issues/labor-mp-questions-motives-of-tillegra-dam-20101024-16z97.html
Of course the real problem is who will lead the opposition. The last time Labor was in this spot – there was a quick turn around due to Carr, who really was initially undervalued ( and of course the arrogance and incompetence of Greiner)
Joe will probably retain his seat, Robertson is sniffing around in the West for a seat and until recently Eric Roosendahl was looking for an Eastern suburbs seat. Eric spoke to me once – two words the last of which was ‘wit’.
what is very important with this election is to the extent votes exhaust…… the greens by encouraging a vote 1 only can effectively preference the libs.
Also if the telegraph is any indicator credible independents may stand and even win seats off the libs…… eg Wagga Wagga
Oakeshott
On a 15.8% margin, Wallsend aint safe in this environment!
ToorakToff
[A change of government is unlikely to perform the wonders that are expected by an increasingly unrealistic electorate.]
Well said.
Perhaps a reason that Gillard and OFarrell may find it in their mutual interest to work together – e.g. get the bulldozers going on a few rail lines
@67
things can change often victory in politics sows the seeds of defeat
Mr Kennett and Mr Howard and the late joh bjelke Peterson are good examples of this
usually a government that survives 3 elections in Australia is doing well
[Of course the real problem is who will lead the opposition. The last time Labor was in this spot – there was a quick turn around due to Carr, who really was initially undervalued ( and of course the arrogance and incompetence of Greiner)
Joe will probably retain his seat, Robertson is sniffing around in the West for a seat and until recently Eric Roosendahl was looking for an Eastern suburbs seat. Eric spoke to me once – two words the last of which was ‘wit’.]
That is an interesting post, Oakeshott . One problem us emigrés have is that it becomes impossible to keep track of who the “up and coming” members of any party are.
Are there positive signs that there really might be some capable young Labor prospects in NSW who aren’t simply party apparatchiks schooled by the “old guard” and who might be motivated by something akin to real Labor principles?
MickQ
Antony Green has got hold of the Penrtith by-election preference flows.
Greens got 12.1% of first preferences. These then flowed:
ALP 21.5%
Lib 13.2%
Exhausted 65.4%
[At the 2007 election, the average flow of preferences in 30 seats where the Greens did not direct preferences was 33.2% to Labor, 13.5% to Liberal and 53.3% exhausted.]
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2010/07/preference-flows-for-the-penrith-byelection.html
Calculating from the NSWEC site, in 2007 in Penrith, Greens got 5.6% first preferences.
Their total preferences on exclusion flowed:
ALP 43.6%
Lib 8.4%
CDP 5.6% (Fred Nile; go figure!)
Exhausted 42.4%
http://www.elections.nsw.gov.au/state_government_elections/electoral_districts/all_districts_/penrith/results_2007/perferential_count
So whichever way you look at it, Penrith Greens’ exhausted far more in the by-election than at the 2007 state election. Based on the seat results, almost 20%!!
The current NSW Government is easily the worst government in Australian History. It eclipses Gough Whitlam’s three-year disgrace.
People who seek to defend it need their heads checked. Keneally is drowning in the Atlantic, not climbing Everest.
Gee if it was anything like Whitlam’s you certainly couldn’t complain GP!
That was the government that got us out of Vietnam, established connections with China that have stood us in good stead for decades, introduced Australia’s first equitable health system where health didn’t depend on wealth, began to turn around decades of appalling treatment of Aboriginal Australians, brought in “no fault” divorce instead of the older barbaric approach to personal matters, gave Australians the opportunity for access to universities regardless of their income, put Australia on the map as an independent country rather than a mere appendage of the UK or the USA, etc etc.
No other government in Australia’s history has left a legacy of so many positive things that we take for granted today as Whitlam did in those three short years.
Heck, even Howard couldn’t dismantle it all in more than a decade, though god knows he tried!
Laocoon #86 – Agreed but Wallsend has been Labor held (in the times that it existed) since 1893
Rod #89 – I don’t think so – after 16 years in government the talent is exhausted. It can be argued that the only reason Rees was made premier was because the Right just did not have anyone who was acceptable. That he was replaced by KKK says something about Centre Unity’s belief in her abilities. Dr Andrew Macdonald , Linda Burney and Carmel Tebbutt strike me as having some integrity/ intelligence/ education but at least 1 of them wont be there after the election and the chances of the other 2 rising to the top strikes me as very low. After June 30 there will be only 6 Labor Senators who were not Union officials. I heard Douggy Cameron give support for this the other day – if the Left is happy with the lack of diversity/intelligence in the party – God help us!
GP- 91
“The current NSW Government is easily the worst government in Australian History” While this is the hackneyed sort of phrase made by a party fanatic/journalist/ someone who knows no Australian History. It can be considered as a competition to name the worst government.
Off the top of my head I nominate:
in NSW
1. The cabal who replaced Governor Bligh
2. Lang in 1930-32
3. Bertram Stevens 1937-39
Federally:
1. Macmahon 1971-72
2. Bruce 1923-1929
3. Scullin 1929-1932
4. Hughes 1916-1923
#91 GP – I think the scandal plagued joh government would be the the worst in Australian history.
They have the lowest approval rating in the history of newspoll.
Is the NSW government a piece of evidence supporting euthanasia?
Laocoon at 86:
[ On a 15.8% margin, Wallsend aint safe in this environment! ]
Shazam. Last election, Labor got a small majority of the 2pp vote – 52.26% according to Wikipedia. Therefore, dropping to 37% is a swing of around 15.3%. As I said upthread, it won’t be uniform (Labor can’t easily lose 15% of the vote in Dubbo or Northern Tablelands, for example), so Wallsend will indeed be in trouble. If not to the Libs, then certainly to any well-known local who wants to put their hand up as an independent.
On Antony’s blog:
[ COMMENT: Labor would win 17 seats, a loss of 33. ]
Not quite sure how he gets that result, but I’m guessing he counts the two obvious Green seats and is plugging that 15.3% swing, so 17 seats would actually be the best case scenario (as the Greens could also take seats like Heffron, and Newcastle / Illawarra independents have a once in a generation chance). He also points out that this would be the worst result for Labor since federation, with one helluva scary graph.
In a word:
PWNED
[Off the top of my head I nominate:
in NSW]
In NSW you surely have to make some room in the “worst government” stakes for Robin Askin , Oakeshott! Government of the real estate agents and crooks, For the realestate agents and crooks, By the real estate agents and crooks” (and yes, I know there may be some parallels with the present administration 😉 )
Federally, McMahon was the dying fart of a government way past its use by date. Yes, he was appalling, but the writing was well and truly already on the wall. In many ways Howard’s period was a greater failure. A time of of unrealised opportunity; of increasing acceptance of racism, fear and xenophobia; of decaying infrastructure at a time when we could afford to pay for it; of a loss of national reputation in most of the world; of ever increasing internal divisiveness; of wars entered into on the scantiest of evidence; of “comfortable” complacency at the price of the abandonment of social responsibility; of the running down of education in a fashion that will have implications for decades to come, etc etc etc.
Hawke’s was a government of unfulfilled expectation on many levels too in my view , too, but Howard’s was simply beyond the palings!
By my fairly amateurish reckoning, this sort if statewide primary would hand The Greens the seat of Coogee by a small margin to the Liberals.
Point taken Rod
I guess my list took too much notice of the economic conditions. Scullin really didn’t have much chance but the Australian economy suffered severely during the depression by the lack of initiative and management of Bruce. Lang was in the same position but his manipulation of the Labor party makes Eric, Joe and Eddie look like amateurs. He and Hughes ( possibly Fraser) took us as close to civil war as I hope we get. Stevens continued to deflate the economy long after it was apparent the policy didn’t work. The rum rebels stole far more than Askin and he got away with a lot because we were still in the post-war boom. I think an assessment of Askin’s government would be like the famous assessment of President Chester A Arthur – “He didn’t steal THAT much”.