Nielsen: 53-47 to Labor in Victoria

GhostWhoVotes reports tomorrow’s Age will feature a Nielsen poll showing state Labor with a handsome 53-47 two-party lead, with both parties’ primary votes believed to be in the high thirties. More to follow.

UPDATE: The primary votes are 38 per cent for both Labor and the Coalition and 16 per cent for the Greens. John Brumby’s approval rating is 51 per cent, down a point on the last Nielsen state poll in January, and his disapproval is up four to 41 per cent. Ted Baillieu is up on both approval (three points to 43 per cent) and disapproval (one point to 46 per cent). Brumby holds a 52-37 lead as preferred premier.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

368 comments on “Nielsen: 53-47 to Labor in Victoria”

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  2. [more than 10,500 extra nurses, more than extra 3,150 doctors, more than extra 1,400 police officers. Public infrastructure has also been rebuilt, as you say. I know that more than $3 billion has gone in capital expenditure on education. I also know that all this has been done while cutting state taxes as a percentage of GSP and leaving Victorians better of in their private incomes as well. ]

    Sounds great. On the surface it sounds as if Labors election strategy is pretty straight forward, My Brumby should threaten to take his magic pudding with him if he is forced to leave office.

    I note the interest in Police, Nurses and Doctors are given in absolute terms, the tax as a percentage of GSP. It would be interesting to see the figures expressed in a similar manner. Perhaps the number of people per Police, Nurses or Doctors or better yet the percentage of GSP used to employ these people. The last would be better unless your claiming that the increase in income per head was due to excellent state government policy and had nothing to do with assets inflation and the mining boom.

    Out of curiosity out percentage of doctors income comes out of the state budget?

  3. fredn,

    I can’t give the ratios for police and nurses, but I can for teachers. The research I do on it should be done by the AEU. Perhaps the Police Association and the Nurses Federation do some for their areas. The primary pupil teacher ratio has been:
    1974 (the year I began teaching) – 22.6:1
    1981 (last full year of the last Liberal government that cared about education) – 18.1:1
    1992 (last year of the previous Labor government) – 15.8:1
    1999 (last year of the last Liberal government) – 17.2:1
    2009 (last year of the current Labor government for which I have figures) – 15.7:1.
    The secondary pupil teacher ratio has been:
    1974 (the year I began teaching) – 14.1:1
    1981 (last full year of the last Liberal government that cared about education) – 10.9:1
    1992 (last year of the previous Labor government) – 10.8:1
    1999 (last year of the last Liberal government) – 12.6:1
    2009 (last year of the current Labor government for which I have figures) – 11.9:1.

    I do not have the percentage of GSP spent employing each of these categories of people, and I expect that working it out would take many hours of research.

    I am not claiming that the increase in income per head was totally due to the sate government. I am simply pointing out that the moans about taxes in this state are nonsense.

    All of the state-employed doctors’ salaries comes out of the state budget, though the feds put money into the state budget to start with.

  4. One of the things that will be interesting to see with this election is just how the results segmentalise.

    We all now talk about the “North South divide” electorally Australia wide, but there seem to me to be increasing divisions within Victoria itself, too.

    I haven’t seen any electorate / close seat polling, or even breakdowns based on rural v outer suburban v inner suburban, but I wonder how even any “swings” are going to be here, and what impact it will have on the outcome?

    What is going to happen in the LaTrobe Valley, for example, where Labor lost seats it expected to retain last time (partly because of a water scheme which it subsequently abandoned)? Can it win any of them back? What about the Independent, Ingram? Are we likely to see any other Indis get up this time after the publicity they have been getting in the Federal sphere? Any prominent candidates likely to cut against the broader trends?

    What effect wil the MDB scheme have on things? Any?

  5. [I think of Bob Brown’s nonsense on preferences before the federal election, when he said he did not believe in deals but he is party had to do one because of the Senate ATL, when in fact the Senate ATL allows a party to submit a split ticket.]

    But preferences are still being allocated albeit in two ways.

    Bob Brown has been trying to reform the electoral system through his Commonwealth Electoral (Above-the-Line Voting) Amendment Bill 2008. This Bill

    [… seeks to make a number of changes to the method of voting at Senate elections. Group voting tickets would be abolished and electors would be required to number at least four preferences when voting above the line in a half Senate election and at least seven preferences in a full Senate election. Ballot papers would exhaust once the last preference expressed by the elector was reached, unlike the current system which requires electors to indicate a single preference above the line with preferences directed to all other candidates in the order indicated on the group voting ticket.]
    http://www.aph.gov.au/house/committee/em/reports.htm

    Guess which parties are not supporting his bill? It is in the interests of both major parties to stymie any reform of the current system relating to senate group voting tickets.

  6. [I think of Bob Brown’s nonsense on preferences before the federal election]

    As one of the ALP Senators said to me, when BB came out with this, “Makes me wonder who was sitting on the other side of the table when we negotiated that. It sure looked like BB.”

  7. Notice another bloggers valid critics of bob Brown reniging on a pref deel publicly after his Party agreed to a deel , (apart from then making demands Greens members by emails) got totally IGNORED by Pegasus Instead Pegasus just blogged an irelevent Bob Brown talking point to th one raised that he quoted from !!

    Troothy did that regular

    (BTW a Brown talking point of changing current fair democrat method of counting all prefs made to Greens selfish intersts)

  8. “Makes me wonder who was sitting on the other side of the table when we negotiated that. It sure looked like BB.”

    forked tongue was most th flattering I was told directly , and i didn’t think that could be beat , but you just did

  9. Chris thanks for that.

    In my view a student teacher ratio of 12/1 is really a bit low, back in my day ( it comes with age) it was around 30:1. I’m not sure if education is now two and a bit times better. I suspect at some point we hit increased cost with diminishing returns.

    I just hope it all doesn’t come unstuck. Kennet did what he did because the state finances were in a mess.

    The liberals got the postal vote forms out first, the issues are.

    [$350 billion in tax and other revenue.]
    This has got to be over 11 years, and has got to include federal grants.

    [Lowest number of police per capita.]
    Note statistics being abused in a different manner, wonder if we also have the lowest crime rate; I suppose I shouldn’t ask.

    [The public transport system is over-crowded, unsafe and rarely on time.]
    I wonder what metric was used to come up with that.

    [A health system under sever stress, secret waiting lists and an ambulance system in crisis.]
    Well I have used the health system in the last 11 year, wouldn’t be alive otherwise. I was impressed with how well in ran.

    [Badly congested and poorly maintained roads.]
    Been really impressed with Brumbies road building program.

    [ etc and so on.

    $1.3 billion on advertising ]

    I assume this is over 11 years, makes 100 million a years, umm.

    [$31.689 billion state debt.]
    20% of GSP. It is a bit on the high side; I suppose that is what happens when you have primary school teacher/student ratios of 12/1.

  10. If Balleau runs Abbotspeek 31 billion debt scare , he may wish to explain why th budget is in surplus as there is a hint there even for real estate man Balleau what Debt is used , and also explain how vic govt got a AAA cr rating if servicability is an issue , but then he may care to explain what assets and services go to reduce this (false aleged) high debt

    but at least he is promisin a study into building a new Doncaster rail line , tho he says cost is 500 mill to over a bill , about , but says ‘figures’ dont matter at moment bnecause study needs to be done first This is a pre non core pre claytons claytons promise

  11. It’s worth pointing out that student – teacher ratios are not class sizes – a student/ teacher ratio of 1:12 does not mean that classes average 12 students.

    Teachers have to have ‘free’ periods for marking and preparation, time allocated for special duties (some teachers do little or not teaching, because they are working in admin roles, yet as still part of a school’s teaching allocation).

    Just sayin’ – people not ‘in the business’ assume student/teacher ratios refer to class sizes, and they do not.

  13. [zoomster
    Posted Tuesday, November 2, 2010 at 11:06 pm | Permalink

    ….
    Just sayin’ – people not ‘in the business’ assume student/teacher ratios refer to class sizes, and they do not.]

    Arrr another misuse of statistics, back in my day ( old age again), it was average class size. I wonder what the average class size is now? I wonder if it went down in 11 year? I wonder if the principle is included, the cleaner?

  16. This is full text of OO article on Vic govt 2010 budget Its most positive ALP OO article ever

    “Victoria is in a better budgetary position than other states

    FISCAL discipline pays. Unencumbered by the hefty budget deficits besetting other states, especially Queensland and NSW, the Victorian government delivered a responsible election-year budget on Tuesday.

    A modest surplus this year of $395 million is projected to increase next year to $872 million and average $1.2bn over the next four years, maintaining the state’s AAA credit rating.

    It is a bottom line that other states would envy, brought about through prudent fiscal discipline by the Brumby and Bracks governments and the difficult reforms of the Kennett era. These included electricity and transport privatisations, and slashing crippling public sector debt.

    The big-ticket items in the budget that should underpin economic growth in Victoria and improve services include $9.5bn for infrastructure and $4bn for health, including the $935 million “brinkmanship” bonus that Premier John Brumby squeezed out of Kevin Rudd during their battle over hospital funding.

    Although relatively modest, the reduction in payroll tax from 4.95 per cent to 4.9 per cent, taking the impost to its lowest rate for 35 years, will provide a welcome boost to productivity. So will the 3.5 per cent cut in WorkCover premiums. Such relief is important given the forecast that unemployment will rise from 5 per cent to 7 per cent next year.

    On the positive side, Treasurer John Lenders has paid down a large slice of debt, ensuring that the state’s NET debt will peak in 2012-3 at 4.3 per cent of gross state product rather than the 5.1 per cent predicted in last year’s budget amid the financial crisis.

    Aside from federal revenue, a major contributor to the state’s coffers has been Victoria’s inflated housing market, which has delivered a stamp duty windfall and a 12 per cent increase in land tax. In such a booming property market, it makes sense that the government has cut the first-home buyers grant for existing homes from $9000 to $7000 for those purchasing existing properties.

    But in an effort to stimulate the building sector outside Melbourne, it has increased the first-home buyers bonus by $4000 for those buying newly built properties in regional areas.

    In an election year, announcements of a new rail line in Melbourne’s west, a new Bendigo hospital and an extra 1966 police on the beat over five years should find favour with voters. Labor’s record on law and order, however, is marred by the lack of an independent crime commission. But Victoria’s budgetary position proves the importance of fiscal conservatism and economic reform, values accepted by both sides of politics. Other states should follow.”

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