Nielsen: 51-49 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes tweets that an imminent Nielsen poll has the Coalition with a 51-49 lead, their first in any poll since the election. Labor’s primary vote is 34 per cent (compared with 38.0 at the election), while the Coalition is on 43 per cent (43.6 per cent) and the Greens are on 14 per cent (11.8 per cent). More to follow.

UPDATE: In spite of everything, the poll has Julia Gillard’s approval up four points on Nielsen’s pre-election poll to 54 per cent, with her disapproval down two to 39 per cent and her lead as preferred prime minister opening from 51-40 to 53-39. Tony Abbott’s approval rating is down a point to 45 per cent and his disapproval is up one to 50 per cent. This is substantially better than his recent showings in Essential Research (39 per cent approval and 45 per cent disapproval last week) and Newspoll (39 per cent approval and 47 per cent disapproval the week before), perhaps suggesting Nielsen’s sample was skewed somewhat to the Coalition.

Other findings of the poll show it’s far from just voting intention on which the public is almost evenly split:

• Forty-nine per cent were opposed to Australian involvement in Afghanistan with 45 per cent in favour, marking little change on a year ago.

• Fify per cent were opposed to asylum seeker families and their children living in the community while their claims were processed, with 47 per cent in favour.

• Fifty-one per cent felt Murray Darling Basin policy should prioritise communities and farmers while 43 per cent would prefer it prioritise the environment – whatever that might mean. Seventy-nine per cent apparently profess themselves in favour of “a balanced outcome between community and farmer needs on the one hand and the environment on the other”, which I guess means as many as 21 per cent would prefer an unbalanced one.

• Forty-six per cent support a price on carbon, with 44 per cent opposed. As Michelle Grattan notes, “backing for an ETS before the election was between 56 and 60 per cent”.

The poll was conducted between Thursday and Saturday from Nielsen’s usual sample of 1400 and margin of error of a bit over 2.5 per cent.

A couple of other things:

• A Tasmanian trouble-maker will withdraw his High Court challenge against the validity of Liberal Senator Eric Abetz’s election on the basis of section 44 of the Constitution, which forbids dual citizens from running for parliament – Abetz having shown the poor taste to have been born in Germany, and renunciation of citizenship being something of a grey area. The complainant, described by the Hobart Mercury as “wealthy northern Tasmanian antiques dealer John Hawkins”, has agreed to drop the case after being provided with a document in which Abetz renounces his German citizenship. This was dated March 9, 2010, which according to Hawkins implies Abetz had indeed held dual citizenship when he filled a casual vacancy in 1994 and won re-election in 1998 and 2004. He could thus have faced problems if his position had been challenged in the 40-day post-election period in which challenges can be lodged – although he could always have resumed his position after getting his house in order if a compliant seat-warmer had held his vacancy in the interim.

• Labor turned in a poor show at Saturday’s by-election for the Brisbane City Council ward of Walter Taylor, which covers a strongly conservative area south-west of the city around Indooroopilly. At the close of counting Liberal National Party candidate Julian Simmonds had scored an easy victory with 57.1 per cent of the primary vote (down 6.5 per cent on the 2008 election), with Greens candidate Tim Dangerfield on 23.5 per cent (up 8.4 per cent) well ahead of Labor’s Louise Foley on 16.8 per cent (down 4.4 per cent). The by-election was necessitated by Jane Prentice’s election to the corresponding federal seat of Ryan in place of disendorsed LNP incumbent Michael Johnson.

• There was another minor electoral event a fortnight ago with a by-election in the Northern Territory electorate of Araluen, where Country Liberal Party member Jodeen Carney had called it a day due for health reasons. CLP candidate Robyn Lambley had no trouble winning a two-horse race with 1935 votes (68.0 per cent) against Labor candidate Adam Findlay’s 909 (32.0 per cent). This marked a swing to Labor of 6.7 per cent on the 2008 election, bearing in mind that candidate factors have an enormous impact in electoral districts of this size.

UPDATE 2: The latest Essential Research survey shows the two parties still locked together on 50-50, with Labor up a point on the primary vote to 41 per cent and the Coalition unchanged on 44 per cent, and the Greens down one to 8 per cent (an unusually low Greens vote having become an established feature of Essential Research polling). On Afghanistan, the poll concurs with Nielsen in having 47 per cent favouring a full withdrawal, against 10 per cent who want more troops and 30 per cent who believe the number should remain unchanged. Party best to handle Afghanistan produces yet another split decision, with Labor on 33 per cent and Liberal on 32 per cent. A question on the Murray-Darling Basin is framed in somewhat more sensible terms than Nielsen’s, with 49 per cent supporting the proposition that the amount of water taken from the system should be reduced against only 20 per cent who disagree. However, a question on detention centres elicits a harsher view, with 53 per cent disapproving of the government’s decision to move children and families into the community against only 33 per cent approving. Fully 63 per cent believe the government’s approach on asylum seekers is “too soft”, with only 18 per cent saying they are “taking the right approach” and 7 per cent believing their stance “too tough”. Only 25 per cent believe Labor the batter party to handle the issue against 37 per cent for the Liberals.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

889 comments on “Nielsen: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 14 of 18
1 … 13 14 15 … 18

  1. [If it became apparent that Labor would lose government after the next election for one reason, and one reason only – it did not replicate exactly all Coalition policy proposals on asylum seekers, including the use of TPVs, would Bludgers support adopting TPVs?]

    No. I’d say let the masses enjoy the full suite of benefits of an Abbott govt.

  2. Boerwar
    [including the use of TPVs, would Bludgers support adopting TPVs?]
    Nope!
    If the ALP changed tack & caved in to the likes of the rabid right on this issue they would lose me.

  3. confessions,

    They would still think he was the ‘new messiah’. There is none so blind as those who are too stupid to see.

  5. [Then why weren’t the PC’s had their CD Writers removed and have the accounted limited form accessing software to copy same.]

    Frank its a load of crud, secure computers don’t have CD writers, heck they didn’t even have floppy disks. If you were in the God class you may be lucky and get a removable HDD that had to be locked in a safe when not in use.

    Methinks someone is telling fibs.

  6. Space Kidette
    [I would love to kiss RAbbott’s ‘full moon’ on his way out the door!]
    Oh yuck! A well planted size 10 jackboot would be preferable.

  8. How come the usual suspects dont jump up and down over the take-over of ASX by SGX?

    which has close link to the Singaporean Govt and Govt owned corporations.

  9. [ruawakePosted Monday, October 25, 2010 at 7:27 pm | PermalinkThen why weren’t the PC’s had their CD Writers removed and have the accounted limited form accessing software to copy same.
    Frank its a load of crud, secure computers don’t have CD writers, heck they didn’t even have floppy disks. If you were in the God class you may be lucky and get a removable HDD that had to be locked in a safe when not in use.
    Methinks someone is telling fibs.
    ]

    Agreed – the guy must have had access to the servers.

  11. [Frank its a load of crud, secure computers don’t have CD writers, heck they didn’t even have floppy disks. ]

    Ru, i heard it was steam driven.

  12. “If it became apparent that Labor would lose government after the next election for one reason, and one reason only – it did not replicate exactly all Coalition policy proposals on asylum seekers, including the use of TPVs, would Bludgers support adopting TPVs? ”

    why ask something that labor party itself will never adopt
    it follows logicly what Labor peoples views would therefore be

    same unlogic is a Q , would Labor suport Iraq War (that it opposed) simply to win in 2004

  14. [Somehows me thinks this is the entree.]

    Dee,

    Apparently WikiLeaks has an “insurance policy”.

    This is apparently going to be released if/when Assange is found having “committed suicide” with two gunshot wounds to the head and both hands tied behind his back.

    The “policy” (apparently) consists of some stuff from Iraq (2004-9) which is different to that which as already been released.

    Of course, that could just be a bluff though.

    Things are going to get interesting methinks.

  15. [If it became apparent that Labor would lose government after the next election for one reason, and one reason only – it did not replicate exactly all Coalition policy proposals on asylum seekers, including the use of TPVs, would Bludgers support adopting TPVs?

    No. I’d say let the masses enjoy the full suite of benefits of an Abbott govt.]

    ditto from me. I would rather lose than roll in the gutter with them.

  16. [The world’s largest media company, News Corporation, is threatening to deny coverage of movies starring artists who routinely refuse to give interviews to its outlets, one of its senior journalists has revealed.]
    And wouldn’t it be hilarious if all the sought after stars denied News Corporation completely because of that threat.

  17. SK:

    You are probably right. Tone would screw over the disadvantaged and poor, while throwing handfuls of cash at the middle and aspiring classes to insulate his government from the resultant voter backlash. And all the while playing to their fears and prejudices to keep them sweet.

    Just like Howard did.

  21. Frank & Ruawake,

    Yes, fair enough. I’m no techhead(!), but that bit seemed odd even to me.

    Unless things were so lax that you were allowed to plug in laptops…

  22. [4. Once one reaches 55, one is lumped in a single statistical “generation”; a “GenBlue” bloc covering over 50 years & several generations – much bigger than the 37 year bloc covering younger Baby Boomers, Gen X & Gen Y.]

    I know OzPol. That was why I was trying to separate us “young 55+ers” from all of you old fogies!

    Now , look. Here I was, prepared to give you your due as a true hero of your own generation – a leader , not just a follower – a light on the hill – one of the few who stood up to be counted despite the fact that so many around you thought that the only light that mattered shone out of Menzies eh are ess ee or those of his latter day bum boys! One of those who showed us whippersnappers from the 50’s what was what and pointed out the errors of so many your own age-mates so we wouldn’t make the same mistakes ourselves!

    But what do you do? Throw it back at me! You want to claim your entire generation were champions of truth and beauty and the new virtue! They weren’t. Don’t forget it was the war years John Winston Howard grew up in!. In his early thirties when I hit twenty. Just the sort of person I was speaking of earlier!

    😉

  23. dave, interesting graph. just looking at it, it would seem the peaks and troughs seem to correspond more with the beginning and end of particular months than with lunar cycles. have you got graphs for multiple years?

  24. ASX is NOT merging. Another lie. Lordy, lordy, I am sick of lies. We have an inflation of lies.

    The ASX is being taken over. The so-called ‘merger’ is opening the gate to Singapore-style, who-you-know-not-what-you-know, shonks.

    Swan should get off his arse and either stop the takeover, or ensure that there are cast-iron statutory safeguards in place protecting the punters, and Australian national interests, from the spivs.

  25. How suprisement! 😡
    [Tea Party climate change deniers funded by BP and other major pollutersMidterm election campaigns of Tea Party favourites DeMint and Inhofe have received over $240,000

    BP and several other big European companies are funding the midterm election campaigns of Tea Party favourites who deny the existence of global warming or oppose Barack Obama’s energy agenda, the Guardian has learned.

    An analysis of campaign finance by Climate Action Network Europe (Cane) found nearly 80% of campaign donations from a number of major European firms were directed towards senators who blocked action on climate change. These included incumbents who have been embraced by the Tea Party such as Jim DeMint, a Republican from South Carolina, and the notorious climate change denier James Inhofe, a Republican from Oklahoma.]

  26. It’s tonight that Howard is on Q&A.

    If there was no audience, I might consider watching. But the thought of fawning Young Libs (we know they’ll dominate the audience) cheering his every utterance (as we know they invariably will), and booing anyone who dares to offer him a curly question (as per NPC in the wake of Lindsay pamphlet scandal), turns me right off.

  27. I am appalled at the responses to asylum seekers being housed in the community in the Essential poll, pending processing. What sort of paranoid, selfish, jump at your own shadow people have we become? William may well be right about Labor taking a hit in the Neilsen because of the change in detention centre policy.
    I wonder how many people who have been refugees themselves might be included in these polls? Not many, I would think.

  29. [Frank its a load of crud, secure computers don’t have CD writers, heck they didn’t even have floppy disks. ]

    *sigh* or someone, perhaps part of a faction of ‘moderates’, *gave* an intermediary the information to bolster their agenda. like how one faction *gave* judith miller bullshit to spread so we could invade iraq.

    which is more likely, that there are some sort of mission impossible style shenanigans going on, or that people give other people information when it suits them?

  30. HSO

    I think I would count as a reffo twice over, I believe: the first time as a political refugee when the Indonesians kicked the Dutch colonialists out; the second time as an economic refugee from a war-shattered Holland.

    IMHO, and in my direct experience, some of the worst perps in terms of raising the portcullis of hate are first and second gen reffos. However, I am not sure of the stats.

  31. [Harry “Snapper” OrgansPosted Monday, October 25, 2010 at 7:54 pm | PermalinkI am appalled at the responses to asylum seekers being housed in the community in the Essential poll, pending processing. What sort of paranoid, selfish, jump at your own shadow people have we become? William may well be right about Labor taking a hit in the Neilsen because of the change in detention centre policy.
    I wonder how many people who have been refugees themselves might be included in these polls? Not many, I would think.
    ]

    Try people who migrated here from overseas 50+ Yrs ago.

  34. what was the comment Martin Furguson made after the talk in QT about the liberals wanting tickets for the Opra show i would like to inform ms Hewitt and the 7.30 report.

    did any one hear it properly

  35. [BoerwarPosted Monday, October 25, 2010 at 7:57 pm | PermalinkHSO
    I think I would count as a reffo twice over, I believe: the first time as a political refugee when the Indonesians kicked the Dutch colonialists out; the second time as an economic refugee from a war-shattered Holland.
    IMHO, and in my direct experience, some of the worst perps in terms of raising the portcullis of hate are first and second gen reffos. However, I am not sure of the stats.
    ]

    Look who was Pauline Hanson’s Right Hand Man – John Pasquarelli.

    Need I say more ?

  37. [William may well be right about Labor taking a hit in the Neilsen because of the change in detention centre policy.]

    only because the change makes them look ‘weak’ and plays to the libs strength. i don’t know why, after decades of failure, right wing muscle marys in progressive parties like to think they can out-tough the right-wing extremists in right-wing parties.

  39. [hit in the Neilsen because of the change in detention centre policy.
    I wonder how many people who have been refugees themselves might be included in these polls? Not many, I would think.]

    i agree with william but its just knee jerk we have to turn this around by education and if Julia and i know she will keeps going with this, we will
    dont you remember she said she would lead.

    But we have to work on this oursleves with all the people we meet, we dont care if we loose friends there not worth having in the first place, its grass roots that influence.
    But the churches and other communites must do more in education including the Unions or dont they want to.

  40. [I wonder how many people who have been refugees themselves might be included in these polls? Not many, I would think.]

    In my experience those who are the most vocal anti-refugee people are often immigrants themselves. They protest against what they perceive as the ‘back door entry’ compared to themselves.

  41. if some one remeber exactly what Mr Furguson said today re the libs and opra at the endo of his speech please leave it with a Number of the post.

    back to bed for me.

  42. [ASX is NOT merging. Another lie. Lordy, lordy, I am sick of lies. We have an inflation of lies. The ASX is being taken over. The so-called ‘merger’ is opening the gate to Singapore-style, who-you-know-not-what-you-know, shonks.]

    BW, i warned them, i warned them, but they are not listening.

    You see the Singaporeans are much more clever than the Comrades in Beijing. They employ pale face as their CEO, so they are “friendly” to the West. Whereas the Comrades are still not quite there as yet, still chinky eyes.

    But they will learn from the “Guided Democracy” of Mr. Lee.

  43. [In my experience those who are the most vocal anti-refugee people are often immigrants themselves. They protest against what they perceive as the ‘back door entry’ compared to themselves.]
    confessions

    Or as Bill Leak paints it.

  44. anony@673

    dave, interesting graph. just looking at it, it would seem the peaks and troughs seem to correspond more with the beginning and end of particular months than with lunar cycles. have you got graphs for multiple years?

    I have data for ASX for 35 years or so. For the DJIA (the index) since 1928.

    The chart I posted shows about one year – the rest you scroll back etc. Weekly
    and monthly charts can also be shown. I can also play the chart forward like
    a movie and vary the speed etc. Sadly it won’t look into the future 🙁

    Looking a lunar cycles is a very minor part of my market assessment. I had
    seen the piece of code around many years ago and used to just laugh at it. One
    day with a bit of time on my hands I loaded it and was very surprised at
    how accurate is is on *some* occasions at turning points.

  45. Thanks, Boerwar and Frank, but why do people become so selfish and unable to see others’ plight in their own experience, is my question. I truly don’t get it. In the course of my work, I’ve encountered many, many people from so many countries whose experience of coming here have been many and varied. Many traumatic, both before and during their escapes. I just cannot comprehend how if you listened to the stories, you could want to put them into any more misery.

  46. We are all immigrants.

    Some came here five years ago; some fifty years ago and some two hundred and twenty two years ago.

    Indigenous Australians are the only ones who can honestly say they “belong” to our land. The rest of us are interlopers.

  47. adam, i wouldn’t get too excited. we don’t live near most of the suburbs in walter taylor ward and they are among the most tory in brisbane. absolutely jammed with toffs. they only vote green because it’s safe tory.

  48. dave

    This guy has written oodles on the “Moon Sun Hypothesis”.

    There are actually lots of articles which support the hypothesis so I’m going to have to retract my earlier statement.

    For the second time ever, I was wRONg. 😀

  50. [In my experience those who are the most vocal anti-refugee people are often immigrants themselves]

    yes the poms ( re respect to other here that may be} letter writing and talk back during the Tampa, wtte we left the uk because of them. I was appalled,
    and they come here and say this, when we have given them a second chance at a better life.

    o and not to forget i am a product of them as my ggrandmother comes from Cornwall, and gee they came in a boat.
    I was reading a story tonight of which there is one every week in the paper here about woman convicts, in Ireland who would burn other peoples property get charged with arson and sent to Van Diemen’s land they did this on purpose, and now they are called heroes and wonderful people and they where they where desperate to leave Ireland.

    I wonder what JWH would of said about them, being from Ireland an all that you know

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 14 of 18
1 … 13 14 15 … 18