GhostWhoVotes tweets that an imminent Nielsen poll has the Coalition with a 51-49 lead, their first in any poll since the election. Labor’s primary vote is 34 per cent (compared with 38.0 at the election), while the Coalition is on 43 per cent (43.6 per cent) and the Greens are on 14 per cent (11.8 per cent). More to follow.
UPDATE: In spite of everything, the poll has Julia Gillard’s approval up four points on Nielsen’s pre-election poll to 54 per cent, with her disapproval down two to 39 per cent and her lead as preferred prime minister opening from 51-40 to 53-39. Tony Abbott’s approval rating is down a point to 45 per cent and his disapproval is up one to 50 per cent. This is substantially better than his recent showings in Essential Research (39 per cent approval and 45 per cent disapproval last week) and Newspoll (39 per cent approval and 47 per cent disapproval the week before), perhaps suggesting Nielsen’s sample was skewed somewhat to the Coalition.
Other findings of the poll show it’s far from just voting intention on which the public is almost evenly split:
• Forty-nine per cent were opposed to Australian involvement in Afghanistan with 45 per cent in favour, marking little change on a year ago.
• Fify per cent were opposed to asylum seeker families and their children living in the community while their claims were processed, with 47 per cent in favour.
• Fifty-one per cent felt Murray Darling Basin policy should prioritise communities and farmers while 43 per cent would prefer it prioritise the environment – whatever that might mean. Seventy-nine per cent apparently profess themselves in favour of “a balanced outcome between community and farmer needs on the one hand and the environment on the other”, which I guess means as many as 21 per cent would prefer an unbalanced one.
• Forty-six per cent support a price on carbon, with 44 per cent opposed. As Michelle Grattan notes, “backing for an ETS before the election was between 56 and 60 per cent”.
The poll was conducted between Thursday and Saturday from Nielsen’s usual sample of 1400 and margin of error of a bit over 2.5 per cent.
A couple of other things:
• A Tasmanian trouble-maker will withdraw his High Court challenge against the validity of Liberal Senator Eric Abetz’s election on the basis of section 44 of the Constitution, which forbids dual citizens from running for parliament – Abetz having shown the poor taste to have been born in Germany, and renunciation of citizenship being something of a grey area. The complainant, described by the Hobart Mercury as “wealthy northern Tasmanian antiques dealer John Hawkins”, has agreed to drop the case after being provided with a document in which Abetz renounces his German citizenship. This was dated March 9, 2010, which according to Hawkins implies Abetz had indeed held dual citizenship when he filled a casual vacancy in 1994 and won re-election in 1998 and 2004. He could thus have faced problems if his position had been challenged in the 40-day post-election period in which challenges can be lodged – although he could always have resumed his position after getting his house in order if a compliant seat-warmer had held his vacancy in the interim.
• Labor turned in a poor show at Saturday’s by-election for the Brisbane City Council ward of Walter Taylor, which covers a strongly conservative area south-west of the city around Indooroopilly. At the close of counting Liberal National Party candidate Julian Simmonds had scored an easy victory with 57.1 per cent of the primary vote (down 6.5 per cent on the 2008 election), with Greens candidate Tim Dangerfield on 23.5 per cent (up 8.4 per cent) well ahead of Labor’s Louise Foley on 16.8 per cent (down 4.4 per cent). The by-election was necessitated by Jane Prentice’s election to the corresponding federal seat of Ryan in place of disendorsed LNP incumbent Michael Johnson.
• There was another minor electoral event a fortnight ago with a by-election in the Northern Territory electorate of Araluen, where Country Liberal Party member Jodeen Carney had called it a day due for health reasons. CLP candidate Robyn Lambley had no trouble winning a two-horse race with 1935 votes (68.0 per cent) against Labor candidate Adam Findlay’s 909 (32.0 per cent). This marked a swing to Labor of 6.7 per cent on the 2008 election, bearing in mind that candidate factors have an enormous impact in electoral districts of this size.
UPDATE 2: The latest Essential Research survey shows the two parties still locked together on 50-50, with Labor up a point on the primary vote to 41 per cent and the Coalition unchanged on 44 per cent, and the Greens down one to 8 per cent (an unusually low Greens vote having become an established feature of Essential Research polling). On Afghanistan, the poll concurs with Nielsen in having 47 per cent favouring a full withdrawal, against 10 per cent who want more troops and 30 per cent who believe the number should remain unchanged. Party best to handle Afghanistan produces yet another split decision, with Labor on 33 per cent and Liberal on 32 per cent. A question on the Murray-Darling Basin is framed in somewhat more sensible terms than Nielsen’s, with 49 per cent supporting the proposition that the amount of water taken from the system should be reduced against only 20 per cent who disagree. However, a question on detention centres elicits a harsher view, with 53 per cent disapproving of the government’s decision to move children and families into the community against only 33 per cent approving. Fully 63 per cent believe the government’s approach on asylum seekers is “too soft”, with only 18 per cent saying they are “taking the right approach” and 7 per cent believing their stance “too tough”. Only 25 per cent believe Labor the batter party to handle the issue against 37 per cent for the Liberals.
ruawake: I saw that earlier. It’s a classic isn’t it. 😆
[Looking a lunar cycles is a very minor part of my market assessment. I had
seen the piece of code around many years ago and used to just laugh at it. One
day with a bit of time on my hands I loaded it and was very surprised at
how accurate is is on *some* occasions at turning points.]
but does it have predictive validity one way or the other? looking back at your data, is there a trend where if you’d gone one way at full moon and another at the new moon, you’d have beaten the market? perhaps you’ve already done this and your posts are being written by a scribe while beautiful persons feed you peeled grapes and you have no intention of telling us. 🙂
Boerwar@674
Dead right – it is a takeover. But you wouldn’t know it from most of the media.
It has to pass a *National Interest Test*. Swan will not weigh into it at this stage
as the whole thing may fall over for a range of reasons.
Article in Business Spectator below. There is still much much more to
play out with this still.
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/ASXs-national-interest-test–ASX-capital-concerns-pd20101025-AK24Q?OpenDocument&src=sph
me @ 697 i meant we do live close to most of the suburbs in walter taylor. oops.
Now look what William has done !!!!
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/bomb-threat-emergency-in-cbd/story-e6freon6-1225943052978
[it became apparent that Labor would lose government after the next election for one reason, and one reason only – it did not replicate exactly all Coalition policy proposals on asylum seekers, including the use of TPVs, would Bludgers support adopting TPVs?
No. I’d say let the masses enjoy the full suite of benefits of an Abbott govt.
ditto from me. I would rather lose than roll in the gutter with them.]
if we dont change and keep going we can do this, we dont want to follow them to the gutter, in the end people will see but we do need a bit of good press,
but where will that come from no where so we have to be the press blogg ect.
I do not approach the markets looking for *predictive validity* at all.
My approach is that there are no certainties with markets but you can look to get
*higher probability* entry and exit points. But nothing what I would even remotely
think of as predictive validity. Charts are sometimes described as *wind socks*.
There are a whole range of chart indicators etc which may or may not be useful.
Combining various indicators with market depth studies (ie stock making new 52
week Highs & Lows, Advance Decline data, percentage of stocks above 50 & 200
day moving averages etc etc) also assists.
Other people never look at charts at all and some do well. Go figure.
HSO
Having listened to some of the vox pops during the election and listened to people talking, and watching the mirroring done by masters like Howard, Abbott and Morrison, here are my guesses:
(1) If you are reasonably poor then you are letting in the competition.
(2) Many poor people in Australia think that asylum seekers not only jump the mythical asylum seeker queue, they jump the queue to Australian Government largesse, thus depriving the deserving Australian poor people.
(3) Quite a few religious christians I know state quite bluntly that they think that they are in a religious existential death-struggle with Islam.
(4) The thing about boats is that they hand ‘control’ to boat people. They decide. And there are about 41 million dislocated people where the current crop of boats came from. There is a fear of being swamped. And rage over the loss of control.
(5) I suspect that quite a few of the haters are what they themselves would call ‘losers’. They lost their jobs through globalization. The became workless, or they became the working poor. They do not have the intellectual grunt to be able to compete in the globalized world. And they know that the same crap elites that boosted globalization now want to bring in another lot of competitors. The elites are cosmpolitan, global people. They can go anywhere and get a well-paid job. The ‘losers’ are stuck in Australia.
(6) Globalization and multi-culturalism are both challening in terms of being confident, sure and proud, rather than defensive, aggressive and arrogant about values. We have several histories, some of which are built on lies; we have a plethora of mother and father countries; we have a sense of being self-defined through a false sense of military power and military experience; our churches are dis-established; we have a national vision of more of the same but a deep knowledge of the steadily eroding national ability to manage and control anything…
FC @ 705
At least we know why TTH or GW hasn’t been posting today. Too busy.
[709 BoerwarPosted Monday, October 25, 2010 at 8:27 pm | PermalinkFC @ 705
At least we know why TTH or GW hasn’t been posting today. Too busy.
]
William has banned GW as well 🙂
Hence the situation in Brisbane 🙂
[There are a whole range of chart indicators etc which may or may not be useful.
Combining various indicators with market depth studies (ie stock making new 52
week Highs & Lows, Advance Decline data, percentage of stocks above 50 & 200
day moving averages etc etc) also assists.]
surely someone has tried to determine how much variance over periods of time is explained by these variables, right?
[Other people never look at charts at all and some do well. Go figure.]
i read a study ages ago that purported to show, as has recent experience, that fund managers, stock brokers and experimental primates failed to do better than chance at selecting winning stocks. i think that the primates may have done better than the other two groups but that might just be what i want to be true.
[ mikestuchbery Mike Stuchbery
For everyone watching John Howard on Q & A tonight, here’s your Bingo Scorecard! –> http://bit.ly/arnveV #auspol #qanda
1 minute ago Favorite Retweet Reply ]
Dio went –
I have recorded that url for – whatever 🙂
They are a lot of wierd ideas around, particularly with *Financial Astrology*.
One that supposed to cause at sorts of trouble in August this year was the
*the Cardinal Climax* (no nothing to do with senior clergy and alter boys)
http://yourastrologysigns.blogspot.com/2010/03/cardinal-climax-what-lies-ahead-in-next.html
http://www.crawfordperspectives.com/
Nothing happened of course…..
Boerwar @ 708, and esp on point (5):
I’m always surprised at how many well-off people (in my family and circle of acquaintances in any case) have no tolerance for asylum seekers. These people are not ‘losers’, and for all intents and purposes are reasonably well educated – if not university, then TAFE qualified. In my experience this issue seems to cross the income divide, and possibly the education divide as well.
[Swan should get off his arse and either stop the takeover, or ensure that there are cast-iron statutory safeguards in place protecting the punters, and Australian national interests, from the spivs.]
Yes. And also warn that poker machines do not always pay and that “gaming” is actually gambling.
(BTW: Gambling became “gaming” when Kennett created Crown Casino, in Melbourne.) Classic spin.
On the money ther Boerwar especially with points 1,2 and 3.
I have encountered those who believe we are probably letting in some terrorists therefore shouldn’t let any in.
To your earlier Q I believe the Answer should be NO. I would rather be a dignified loser than a shamefull winner.
The fibs wouldn’t give a toss would they ?
How surprisement re Bob Brown’s Comments:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/10/25/3047866.htm?section=justin
The ASX takeover is now the dominant news item at ABC online.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/10/25/3047844.htm
anony
Sometime various things work. Other times not.
ATM the US Fed etc are interfering in markets etc. Every big move up in the
last 6 weeks has been encouraged by the Fed mentioning QE or QE2. That
has changed stuff that might normally work. Don’t fight the Fed, everyone says.
Many are just salesmen who job is to convert customers accounts into commissions.
Other just invest in order to minic the ASX 200. If it goes down and the major
institutions all lose together, all their butts are covered.
But there are some very good *stock pickers* around. Some even do well over
longish periods.
confessions
Happy to accept that there are others for whom the issues are not wealth, class, religion or fear of competition but a fear of a perceived threat to their values.
if i was pm, here’s what i’d say to bw’s list:
[(1) If you are reasonably poor then you are letting in the competition.]
only if you vote for john howard’s 457 visas that created a slave underclass in australia. labor and unions, working to protect you from competing against slaves and reducing the number of people who can ‘steal’ your job.
[(2) Many poor people in Australia think that asylum seekers not only jump the mythical asylum seeker queue, they jump the queue to Australian Government largesse, thus depriving the deserving Australian poor people.]
this is why we propose to let asylum seekers work and pay tax while their applications are processed. the govt. will even assist asylum seekers to move to remote communities where skilled and unskilled labor is desperately needed. should these individuals find 10 sponsors in their new communities the govt. may waive normal processing requirements in light of their evident contribution.
[(3) Quite a few religious christians I know state quite bluntly that they think that they are in a religious existential death-struggle with Islam.]
rectal valium is available with a prescription from your gp.
[(4) The thing about boats is that they hand ‘control’ to boat people. They decide. And there are about 41 million dislocated people where the current crop of boats came from. There is a fear of being swamped. And rage over the loss of control.]
the numbers arriving by boat are nothing to worry about. it would take (x) thousand years at current arrivals for boaties to achieve a majority. but as recent experience shows us, this idea of australia disappearing is nonsense.
[(5) I suspect that quite a few of the haters are what they themselves would call ‘losers’. They lost their jobs through globalization. The became workless, or they became the working poor. They do not have the intellectual grunt to be able to compete in the globalized world. And they know that the same crap elites that boosted globalization now want to bring in another lot of competitors. The elites are cosmpolitan, global people. They can go anywhere and get a well-paid job. The ‘losers’ are stuck in Australia.]
there is no answer to this one because this is the real reason we have immigration/cultural problems. this is why when people want to build a muslim school in camden a crowd shows up on a workday morning possessed of 10 teeth between them to protest about being, ‘taken over’. globalisation in its current form means capital gets to find the best deal anywhere around the world and you pay australian prices because of dvd region encoding. there is no solution because both major parties adhere almost religiously to the neo-liberalism that created globalisation and distracting the mugs with booga booga muslims! while picking their pockets is so effective. so yeah, you got me there. revolution i guess.
[(6) Globalization and multi-culturalism are both challening in terms of being confident, sure and proud, rather than defensive, aggressive and arrogant about values. We have several histories, some of which are built on lies; we have a plethora of mother and father countries; we have a sense of being self-defined through a false sense of military power and military experience; our churches are dis-established; we have a national vision of more of the same but a deep knowledge of the steadily eroding national ability to manage and control anything…]]
see previous response.
THE DRUM [For the most part, MPs and senators are sticking to the party line.
The debate has another couple of weeks to run.
More than 100 MPs want to have their say and less than one-third have spoken so far.]
Good way to tie up Parliament for the rest of the sitting year . 😉
anony
I don’t fancy your chances of becoming PM.
Ru@609:
[ Opposition water spokesman Barnaby Joyce ridiculed Mr Burke for “bucketing” the guide.
“I think he likes the font size and the photos and that’s about it,” he told the Senate.]
[Is there a place to incarcerate him in Armidale?]
Ru, what have we here in Armidale ever done to deserve such a fate?
Though we do have a big new police station. Is that what you mean?
[In my experience this issue seems to cross the income divide, and possibly the education divide as well.]
This has been my experience also.
Nearly all have formed their opinions based on the lies, misinterpreted information that has been spoon fed by the media.
It is easy to dismiss those who find venturing into anything more challenging than the Simpsons as ignorant, disengaged, uneducated etc.. but what can be said of the educated who lassoo their opinions around these falsehoods?
[I don’t fancy your chances of becoming PM.]
i pledge to organise a special wing of every state health service dedicated to the mandatory administration of rectal valium to all talk back radio callers, anyone who uses kevin’s first initial and rudd together as an insult and door to door utility plan spruikers.
there. fixed.
[Ru, what have we here in Armidale ever done to deserve such a fate?]
Raise a nutter like barnaby? As a Queenslander I am duty bound to point out that barnaby is an immigrant. He should have been stopped at the border and detained for jumping the queue. 🙂
anony
[i pledge to organise a special wing of every state health service dedicated to the mandatory administration of rectal valium to all talk back radio callers, anyone who uses kevin’s first initial and rudd together as an insult and door to door utility plan spruikers.
there. fixed.]
Vote 1 anony! 😉
I’m just waiting for the Coaltion to spin the takeover of the ASX as being all Labor’s fault …
708 Boerwar
Good list. It is very important to understand how other people think. You have to do this if you want to have any chance to change perceptions.
Oh well, back to work – maybe I might join the Liberals in Victoria to try and influence their forthcoming preference arrangements.
i will also enact legislation making it legal for specially trained officers and citizen volunteers to taze liberals between the ages of 18 and 25, inclusive. it is my firm hope that this early intervention will interrupt the transition from larval to pupal stage. 😉
Dont you love how the voters care more about boaties and AS in their neighbourhood, or losing water entitlements, than many thousands dying in 2 wars?
The 4Corners program on Cricket is a waste of time. Going over the same old ground without offering anything new that has not been exposed before.
Frank@710:
[William has banned GW as well 🙂
Hence the situation in Brisbane 🙂 ]
Frank, for my money GW and TTH are one and the same. They use the same form of words, and have the same attitudes, and both live in north queensland. Well, if Townsville is north qld. But importantly, they both use the same vocabulary and write in almost identical ways. Or GW did after he relaxed a little. It’s hard to keep up a pretence like that for long, posters have very identifiable styles.
William, did you check the ISPs?
Though I guess ISPs can be faked if you know what you are doing, or in Truthy’s case, get someone to do it for you.
Poor Sloppy:
[ JoeHockey Joe Hockey
Julia Gillard gets desperate at AIG dinner with an attack on me, Robb,Keneally and O’Farrell- oh how desperate. The left have her worried!!
8 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply ]
Just listening to the car radio New Radio.
Some Lib turkey wants a judicial inquiry into the BER? “Waste”, “Mismanagement”, “Rorts”, “Debacle”, “Why didn’t they get 3 quotes”????
He’s moving a private member’s bill.
Eh?
Is this for real?
He’s saying Orgill was untrustworthy, as he was/is a puppet of Gillard. The Auditor General found “grave concerns”. The taxpayer wants to know…
What’s happening?
Hello Bludgers
Have been listening to the radio in the car on and off and have been following the BER private members bill but missed the vote. Can anyone enlighten me on the result?
Yes BB, we dont need an inquiry into Iraq, we need one into the BER. Unbelievable. But you know what, they get away with it because the MSM lets them
I had a “Financial Consultant” once explain to me that “Markets go up and markets go down”, in response to my question as to why he’d lost my wife a motza in stupid superannuation investments.
I replied, “YOU’RE the expert! How come you can’t beat the market?”
Never heard from him again.
Ru:
[Raise a nutter like barnaby? As a Queenslander I am duty bound to point out that barnaby is an immigrant. He should have been stopped at the border and detained for jumping the queue. :)]
We didn’t raise him. He was born in Tamworth, and raised in Danglemah, which I have never heard of.
He did come to Armidale to the UNE, but the education vaccination shots did not take. Can’t blame us, we tried.
http://www.nationals.org.au/OurTeam/FederalElectionCandidates2010/SenatorBarnabyJoyceSenatorforQueensland.aspx
[Barnaby Joyce was born in Tamworth in 1967 and brought up in Danglemah in Southern New England.
Barnaby was one of six children, where they were raised on the family farm, which ran cattle and sheep.
Barnaby went on to boarding school in Riverview, before returning to the country to attend the University of New England, Armidale, where he completed a Commerce degree.]
[Barnaby Joyce was born in Tamworth in 1967]
hells bells
he looks 10 yrs older that 43
I have a mate who’s a middling contemporary of Barnarby and Abbott at Riverwivew.
Oh, the stories he’s told me….
[Poor Sloppy:]
Frank – just ask him why it is OK for him to attack Gillard but it’s not OK for her to strike back, please. He can dish it out but can’t take it obviously.
dave
Have you read “Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets” by Nicholas Nassim Taleb? He assures me picking trends in the stock market is basically monkeys writing Shakespeare on typewriters.
[Oh, the stories he’s told me….]
BB – you mean you are going to leave us hanging!!
I followed a contest about a 15 years ago with a horses punter , financial journo , professional stockbroker and dartboard all competing to see who could make the most cash out of some starting capital.
The punter won by a mile and I think from memory the well known stockbroker came last !
Dio I have a very dear friend who is a well respected financial journalist in New York – he tells me much the same – although he refers to lemmings.
Anyone going to tweet Q&A & ask Howard about an inquiry into the war in Iraq?
So who’s watching Howard tonight?
[BHPosted Monday, October 25, 2010 at 9:15 pm | PermalinkPoor Sloppy:
Frank – just ask him why it is OK for him to attack Gillard but it’s not OK for her to strike back, please. He can dish it out but can’t take it obviously.
]
Just did 🙂
[frankscan65 Frank Calabrese @
@JoeHockey Poor Baby, so it’s Ok for you to attack Gillard and others, but when they respond in kind you squeal like a little Girl Hypocrite
9 seconds ago Favorite Reply Delete ]