Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

The latest weekly Essential Research survey has Labor maintaining its 51-49 lead from last week, but with the Coalition gaining a point on the primary vote to 44 per cent, Labor stable on 42 per cent and the Greens down a point further to an undernourished 8 per cent. When asked whether Tony Abbott was “unfairly putting roadblocks in the way of Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s programs”, 46 per cent rated him too obstructive while 54 per cent believed his actions “appropriate” for an Opposition Leader (not sure where the don’t knows went). A surprisingly large majority agreed there should be a new election, perhaps owing to the question’s rather odd qualification that such an election would allow us “a Government with a working majority”: 55 per cent agreed with only 23 per cent disagreeing. Findings on “attributes to describe the Prime Minister” have Julia Gillard deteriorating on all measures since the questions were last posed on July 5. Her worst reversal is a 15 per drop on “good in a crisis”, which forcefully makes the point that there’s no accounting for taste. The figures for Tony Abbott are little changed, with a general pattern of very slight improvements. Gillard remains better placed than Abbott on each measure, being well ahead on “down to earth” and well behind on “narrow-minded” and “arrogant”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,648 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. bemused @3494
    Singapore is not really a valid comparison with any Australian city. The density of Singapore makes a lot of difference in value-for-money, profitability and therefore opportunity cost considerations. We can argue until the cows come home that Australian cities need to be more compact and dense (which they certainly should be), but until they are or at least show signs they are heading that way, public transport strategies necessarily must be different.

    As for sourcing infrastructure locally – there are arguments many ways on this. For better or worse (personally I think better, but I’m sure you disagree) there has been an anti-protectionist sentiment across Australian governments for several decades. Putting in clauses for sourcing infrastructure locally is effectively a protectionist measure. Further, it would be a measure that would increase waste in terms of government expenditure. Spend X million for imported carriages or X + 30% million for local carriages. I believe the procurement guidelines for state/fed governments would currently preclude the latter choice.

    That said, the state/fed governments can do more to support and foster new local industries that can be competitive – more/better training, improve the ability of SMEs to get access to finance, infrastructure improvements, etc.

  2. [Mike Fennell, president of the Commonwealth Games Federation, sought to put a positive spin on the story at a news conference, saying: “If that is happening, it shows that there is use of condoms and I think that is a very positive story. Athletes are being responsible.”

    “If they are so active then that’s very good,” a spokesperson for the organisers said. “We are promoting safe sex.” …]

    STOP SEX ISNT AT THE COMM GAMES

  3. Reading through past posts, I was planning on just heading off today after reading all the silly sexism. As a simple note, if you don’t mention the way a male journo looks, why bother with a female one?

    & on railways, all the alleged improvements at Diamond Creek station may mean the dust bowl that was the main car park is no longer with us, and although they kept quite a few of the trees, there are now far less places to park. And far more people wanting to use them.

    But at least you can get a coffee while you wait.

    &, as it is years since I lived here & only moved back unexpectedly, does the second platform (cost whatever) still only get used a couple of times a day? It did when I went to uni regularly, and found myself shouting across at tourists who were waiting for trains on the wrong side. And why did D/Ck ever have tourists?

  4. Sad to read about the public transport systems’ decline in other states. Here in WA during the last 20 years there has been a lot of government investment in new rail lines and the introduction of circle route buses and electronic fares. All of these were ALP government initiatives and all have been seamlessly and enthusiastically adopted by the public.

    Why the stark contrast in public transport policies and outcomes between states? Only a small part of the better WA performance can be attributed to mineral royalties, as most of the new rail built by Labor governments was pre-boom. I put it down to two women: Carmen Lawrence and Allanah MacTiernan. Such a pity the latter didn’t quite make it to Canberra on August 21.

  5. bemused – thanks for that info on the MYKI system. It’s all a matter of getting used to new things and that’s sometimes harder for older heads to absorb quickly.

    I envy my grandkids with their ability to cotton on to the new stuff so quickly.

  6. #3479 @bemused.
    You are right about the gospels being written decades later but John was definitlely an eyewitness. Luke while not known to be an eyewitness was a companion of Paul and so was around during Jesus time. Paul was present for the stoning of Steven, an early christian. Luke states that he carefully investigated everything from the beginning (Luke 1:1-4), so that the reader could be sure.
    It wasn’t Roman Catholic bishops who decided because at that point the church was one. The eastern’s broke away much later, after Constantine had shifted the capital to Constantinople and views started to diverge over the next few centuries. Lots more but probably not the place to go on about it. Fascinating stuff really.

  7. Crikey, things must be a shocker in the MDB. The OO editorialist opines today that,

    ‘Over allocations have damaged the Murray-Darling Basin, but the government will walk a tightrope as it pares them back for the good of the nation.’

    The OO then gorges on costs, economic rationalism, social impacts, job impacts, the need for balance, etc, etc.

    Naturally, on the front page there is a photo of…. Lo! fresh water emanating from the Murray mouth.

    With its well-known dedication to intellectual honesty, and to truly balanced reporting, I look forward to the OO publishing a full and comprehensive account of the ecological and biodiversity status of the MDB.

  8. Hi, I’m back, just in time to catch up on posts “to me”.
    ozymandias
    Starting at the end, my husband spent 10 days in Perth a year or two ago, and commented that the transport was fantastic, easy to understand and everything coordinated. He thought the reason was that there is a coordinating Dept that oversees it all. No doubt someone else will comment on that.

    As for my relative who’s too scared to use it.
    1. computer illiterate and very machine nervous.
    2. a rare user, and not sure which stations have tickets offices, etc., or even how to buy a ticket
    3. afraid of the “ticket inspectors/bullies.”
    On the other hand, has booked and used the airport bus with great success.

    Longs for the old days when you could just “buy a ticket at the station”.

  9. sucih @3500,

    thanks for that.

    i have not read the Koran but I have been under the impression that certain sections of the bible and the koran are similar. Is this true or am I just talking rubbish ?

    If true how would one account for this?

  10. BW

    The buzz phrase that’s being used is a “500% increase in water extraction from the MDB over the last 100 years”.

    It’s kind of hard to argue that we can sustainably do that. There will have to be reduced water allocations. It’s just a question of how much.

  11. A nice item from Richard Farmers column in Crikey today:
    [Under normal circumstances the National Press Club could expect a substantial turnout of MPs to attend a luncheon address by John Howard to launch a book of memoirs. But not this month. The tough Liberal and National Party line on pairs will confine his former political friends and foes to watching on television within hearing of the division bells.]

  12. I saw Tony Burke’s presser on the release of the MD briefing notes today. I think he said it would be released at 4pm.

    If anyone else saw the presser did you recognise the sullen looking 2UE reporter on Burke’s left (rightside on telly screen). She seemed irritated a few times during the presser.

  13. Doyley,
    re the Koran, as I understand it
    Islam considers the bible as a ‘holy book’, so as Christianity accepts the Jewish bible as the ‘old testament’ Islam, accepts much of both the old and new testaments. I don’t believe they are part of the koran but are considered ‘scripture’.

  14. Dong @ 3506

    [You are right about the gospels being written decades later but John was definitlely an eyewitness.]

    News to me. My understanding was somewhat similar to the article in Wikipedia…

    [John was written somewhere near the end of the 1st century, probably in Ephesus, in Anatolia. The tradition of John the Apostle was strong in Anatolia, and Polycarp of Smyrna reportedly knew him. Like the previous gospels, it circulated separately until Irenaeus proclaimed all four gospels to be scripture.[157]]

    “Near the end of the 1st century” would rule out contact with any eyewitness.

  15. Both written by desert folk. Both monotheistic. Both believe in prophets. Both contain messianic elements. Both absolutist rather than relativistic. Antecedants of both cloudy in terms of textual purity. Both provide a stairway to heaven. Both utterly and totally without humour, irony, or satire.

  16. An interesting piece by Bernard K in Crikey today –

    [One of the particularly cute themes being strongly peddled by some conservatives at the moment is a narrative of persecution.

    The least subtle, and certainly most amusing, version of this has emerged from The Australian in recent weeks, marked by a series of missteps from the national broadsheet that have served to put on unusually prominent display the various wars that outlet is engaged in?—?the war against Labor, the war against the Greens (the “Stalinist, pot-smoking, paranoid” Greens as one Australian press gallery journalist calls them), the war against bloggers, the war against the ABC … on the list goes.

    But a particular theme of The Australian’s extended bouts of self-justification on these issues?— …..]

    http://www.crikey.com.au/2010/10/08/in-the-echo-chamber-progressives-need-to-
    muscle-up-on-policy/#comments

  17. *Pedant alert*

    [“Near the end of the 1st century” would rule out contact with any eyewitness.]

    Well not really.

    for example a writer in the 1990s may have spoken to someone in their 80s who witnessed the stock market crash of 1929.

  18. bemused 3494
    [Why can’t the states get together and support local industry in building carriages here? There surely is scope for some degree of standardisation of the basics with appropriate local variations to accommodate different requirements such as air conditioning / heating and track gauge. I undoubtedly simplify and am interested in what others can offer.]
    This is a good question and the answer frustrates me in my own work. Put simply, the separation of Australian state rail systems went to a lot more than just track gauge. They have different standards for signalling, brakes, electric power voltage, – even different ideas of what is the safest way to run a train system. I am sure that we could and should have standardised rail infrastructure and rolling stock across Australia much more, but the little fiefdoms that comprise Australia’s state railways have rarely agreed to do so. The relevant unions don’t help here, more concerned with protecting existing work practices, enshrined in award conditions, than in permitting any type of meaningful reform.

    There is now some degree of standardisation emerging for new rolling stock, with Brisbane, Perth and soon Adelaide having essentially the same design. However as the China trains for NSW fiasco shows, Australian rail is still run by inflexible bureaucrats, more intent on appeasing a few ageing train drivers than the public interest. Why Sydney has to design a new train every time they buy some carriages, I cannot understand.

    I think that each state used to run its own train manufacture as something of a cottage industry proping up employment in that state. They did not cooperate. Not surprisingly, we are very uncompetitive as a train manufacturer, except for Walkers/ EDI at Maryborough. Now that the rail manufacturers are private there is no reason for it, but the mindset continues. I’d love to see some kind of overarching Federal rules, like ADRs for cars, with projects not getting Federal funds unless they complied.

    On the good news front, the world is rapidly moving towards standardisation in rail carriages, so some of our ageing rail bureaucrats (and they are almost all old men) will have to change their thinking whether they like it or not.

  19. victoria

    The Government has never, ever, ever said it would implement forced buy-backs. There has been a plethora of attempts by the MSM and by others to verbal the Government on this issue. It is disgraceful because it was designed to cause fear and it was, IMHO, designed to draw attention away from the complexity and gravity of the issues.

    This is the first Government to genuinely and systematically attempt to address the whole MDB catastrophe. The MDB is not just damaged, it is catastrophically damaged. Salinity levels are shockingly high in some locations and are, in general, heading north. The fish fauna is over 90% European carp. Depending on to whom you listen, more than 95% of the wetlands are either damaged or destroyed. (I have been on numerous ‘destroyed’ ones. They are white with salt. Tens of thousands of shorebirds have disappeared from the Coorong. The Coorong fisheries are heading downhill. The avian fauna at the end of the drought was at around less than .5% of the long term average. Aquatic vegetation has been devastated in terms of extent and variety. Terrestrial vegetation has taken a hammering.

    Etc, etc, etc.

    I have extended family who depend heavily on irrigation and/or who derive their income from irrigation towns.

    A whole mess of state and federal governments have generated this unsustainable catastrophe. It is socially, economically and environmentally unsustainable. There is absolutely no doubt that fixing it is going to cause massive anguish, disruption, loss of income and loss of livelihoods for individuals, businesses and companies.

    I hope the Government gets it right and includes rural and regional reconstruction in the final package.

    Conflict of interest statement: I own an irrigation licence for umpty megs.

  20. Dio

    500% is an impressive figure but I believe it is dishonest. My point is: ‘500% of what?’

    The issues are far too complex to encapsulate in a phrase or two, a la Joyce.

  21. Socrates @ 3523

    Thanks for that. It is about time some parochial state govts got over it and worked for the greater good. Or be made to.

  22. Tony Burke said yesterday and again today that there is more water for sale on the market than the Govt. wants to buy. I didn’t hear any journos making anything of that. It was all about farmers having to give up too much water and nothing about some already doing so voluntarily.

  23. BW

    [My point is: ‘500% of what?’]

    It’s not 500% of what. It’s a 500% increase in water extraction, ie we are taking 5 times as much water out of the Murray as we were 100 years ago.

  24. [thanks for that.

    i have not read the Koran but I have been under the impression that certain sections of the bible and the koran are similar. Is this true or am I just talking rubbish ?

    If true how would one account for this?]

    Ahh — my pet topic!

    Many of the ancient scriptures mirror Egyptian stories from centuries before — however we didn’t know it until hieroglyphics were translated.

    Almost all of the old testament is straight from Egyptian myth, and the Lord’s Prayer, is almost a direct retelling of the “Hymn to the Aten” (can’t remember off hand whether it was the “Little Hymn” or just “The Hymn”.

    Parallel stories of the divine birth occur in almost every form of ancient literature … and for those of a linguistic bent — the ‘names’ of many historical figures have direct parallel meanings to those of Egyptian Pharaohs.

    To date, apart from the bible, there has been absolutely no archaeological evidence of the existence of Jesus — most ‘evidence’ is from oral traditions only, and those cannot be traced back to the time Christ was supposed to have lived.

    It is a fascinating subject … perhaps we should have a blog to discuss belief systems.

  25. DIOGENES – Reminds me of what Saul Bellow said when he got the nobel prize: “The adult in me is suspicious, but the child is delighted.”

  26. Dio

    My point stands. If we were taking 1 litre out 100 years ago, we are taking 5 litres out now. If you are arguing 500% is meaningful, you have to give some comprehension of the figure 100 years ago, and what that figure meant then, and what it means now.

    It is not exactly dishonest, because it is true. It is just not all that helpful.

    Besides, the last drought taught us something horrible… a quite small increase in average temperature had a disproportionately significant impact on run-off over the life of the drought.

    That is, over a century and because of AGW, the base has contracted.

  27. [I think this is a VERY important read. Provides some big clues about what the Oz is up to.]

    😆 Rosa — all you need is to change the names.

  28. jenauthor @ 3531

    [To date, apart from the bible, there has been absolutely no archaeological evidence of the existence of Jesus — most ‘evidence’ is from oral traditions only, and those cannot be traced back to the time Christ was supposed to have lived.]

    The bible is not archeological evidence.

    But there are the writings from a non-Christian, the Roman historian Josephus, who wrote of Jesus so there seems to be good evidence of the existence of such an historical figure. However, as to the rest…

  29. This whole thing is looking bad…from the NYT yesterday:
    [WASHINGTON — Afghan private security forces with ties to the Taliban, criminal networks and Iranian intelligence have been hired to guard American military bases in Afghanistan, exposing United States soldiers to surprise attack and confounding the fight against insurgents, according to a Senate investigation.

    The Pentagon’s oversight of the Afghan guards is virtually nonexistent, allowing local security deals among American military commanders, Western contracting companies and Afghan warlords who are closely connected to the violent insurgency, according to the report by investigators on the staff of the Senate Armed Services Committee.

    The United States military has almost no independent information on the Afghans guarding the bases, who are employees of Afghan groups hired as subcontractors by Western firms awarded security contracts by the Pentagon. At one large American airbase in western Afghanistan, military personnel did not even know the names of the leaders of the Afghan groups providing base security, the investigators found. So they used the nicknames that the contractor was using — Mr. White and Mr. Pink from “Reservoir Dogs,” the 1992 gangster movie by Quentin Tarantino. Mr. Pink was later determined to be a “known Taliban” figure, they reported.

    In another incident, the United States military bombed a house where it was believed that a Taliban leader was holding a meeting, only to discover later that the house was owned by an Afghan security contractor to the American military, who was meeting with his nephew — the Taliban leader.]
    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/08/world/asia/08contractor.html?hp

  30. jenauthor @3531,

    thanks for your reply.

    I really do find it a interesting topic. Similarities in religons and beliefs really do get blurred when they are used as cover for other agenda.

  31. JENAUTHOR – It’s pretty scary, isn’t it. Herald seems to be getting a few good scoops from inside the government these days. I assume that the Australian has been totally shut out by this government because there is absolutely no hope that Rupert can be appeased (short of abandoning the NBN). Does anyone know?

  32. Boerwar

    Yes, I agree that as usual the MSM are figuratively speaking, trying to muddy the waters with thi issue. Hopefully, commonsense will prevail, and they do get it right.

  33. I think one of my posts may have been filtered.

    It was about an article by John Lyons, in today’s The Australian, entitled ‘Ill-timed oath may torpedo talks.’

    It is about a new oath of allegiance for the State of Israel, ‘…to a Jewish and democratic state.’

  34. janauthor,
    I had heard similar things re religious myths – the creation and flood stories are commonly quoted. The sad thing is that ‘the people of the book’ have more similarities than differences.

  35. rosa
    [Paul Krugman on how Rupert is trying to buy up all the politicians he can find in the US.]
    I might watch the Manchurian Candidate tonight

  36. [I hear people moaning about the trains in Sydney but I think they’re fantastic. If they’re a bit late, so what – they might have been helping someone aboard or somebody was ill. I think we’ve all become too whingy and inconsiderate.]

    My 89 year old mother (who I’ve mentioned before) regularly heads up to Sydney to look after her 95 year old sister. She’s not a bad yardstick to judge the system for when it comes to elderly users. She prefers the Sydney trains these days to the Melbourne ones.

    As far as “user assistance” goes one thing has definitely changed since we moved to Hurstbridge. When we first arrived here, if you were running a little late and were worried about whether you might just miss it at our “end of the line” station, you could ring the station master and he’d hold the train for a minute or two until you arrived! I’m afraid this no longer works, what with penalties for trains running late, etc. I suspect people further down the line might be happy about our little loss in this regard though! 😉

  37. I see a lot of parallels with the murray water situation and climate change.

    I would expect a poll would show 60-70% support for a restructure of water licenses – in theory – but support is subject to a scare campaign.

    In fact the parallel goes further – the water trading reforms are a similar market based solution to the emissions trading scheme.

  38. Laocoon –
    My only consolation is that:
    1. What Rupe probably wants most is to destroy the NBN;
    2. The government can’t give him that;
    3. So the government should accept News Corp is the enemy (and can’t be bought off) and shore up its support in the rest of the media;
    4. News Corp is probably a good deal less influential in Australia than in the US.

  39. [But there are the writings from a non-Christian, the Roman historian Josephus, who wrote of Jesus so there seems to be good evidence of the existence of such an historical figure. However, as to the rest…]

    You’re right, bemused, I should have structured that sentence differently — the bible is not archaeological, though catholics might want to argue the point.

    The romans kept records but there is nothing about Jesus. Josephus used archives that no longer exist, and we must also take into account the fact that historical rigour wasn’t the accepted way of doing things in those days. Many of the records were kept and or destroyed when the early church sects and factions were vying for prominence.

    The acceptance of the existence of Jesus has been generated by the growth of the church and the subsequent writings, rather than actual facts, in my opinion. The christian church in all its forms has been political weapon for rulers, basically until last century when the separation of church and state became more entrenched.

    In many ways we are seeing the same politicism with Islamic states right now.

  40. ROD – I was in Melbourne recently and I couldn’t work out how the aged and invalid could get on and off the trams. It must be hard.

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