Armadale and Araluen and Walter Taylor

Time for a new thread. Politics watchers have had pretty big fish to fry recently, but as electoral minutiae are this site’s raison d’etre, here’s a review of looming events which might have escaped your notice. Feel free to discuss what you’d usually discuss in comments.

• Voters in the safe Labor WA state seat of Armadale go to the polls on Saturday to choose a successor to Alannah MacTiernan, following her unsuccessful stab at the federal seat of Canning. I’m wondering if the date might have been chosen so as not to clash with the AFL grand final, and whether events on that front might result in a very low turnout on Saturday. With the Liberals sitting the contest out and no significant minor challengers emerging, the only other point of interest is how the Labor primary vote holds up with talk building of a threat to Eric Ripper’s leadership. Labor’s candidate is Tony Buti, a law professor at the University of Western Australia. Buti heads a ballot paper filled out by Jamie van Burgel of the Christian Democratic Party, independent John D. Tucak (who had extremely limited success as an upper house candidate for Eastern Metropolitan at the 2007 state election) and Owen Davies of the Greens. More from Antony Green.

• On Saturday week, voters in the Alice Springs seat of Araluen will choose a successor to outgoing Country Liberal Party member (and former leader) Jodeen Carney, who on August 19 announced she was retiring for health reasons. A by-election in the Northern Territory offers interesting parallels with the federal situation, as the Labor government has been on a parliamentary knife edge since the 2008 election returned a result of 13 Labor, 11 Country Liberal Party and one independent. The government assumed minority status when its member for Macdonnell, Alison Anderson, quit to sit as an independent in July 2009 – prompting the existing independent, Gerry Wood of the normally conservative electorate of Nelson, to guarantee Labor on confidence and supply in the interests of “stable government” (there was also a brief period in which Arafura MP Marion Scrymgour was on the cross-benches). As a CLP seat, Araluen gives Labor the remote prospect of improving their position, although the 24.6 per cent margin leaves them with little cause for optimism (it should be noted that election results can be hugely variable in the Northern Territory, where bite-sized electorates make candidate factors crucially important). The CLP candidate is Alice Springs deputy mayor Robyn Lambley, described by Ben Langford of the Northern Territory News as a “mediator and dispute resolution expert”. Labor’s candidate is Adam Findlay, a chef with no background in politics to speak of.

• On October 23, a Brisbane City Council by-election will be held in the ward of Walter Taylor, which has been vacated by Jane Prentice, the newly elected LNP member for the federal seat of Ryan. The LNP have nominated a former policy officer for Prentice, Julian Simmonds, who seems unlikely to be troubled given the 21.0 per cent margin from the 2008 election. Labor’s candidate is Louise Foley, who according to Tony Moore of Fairfax has “worked in the Queensland public service during the Beattie Government as a ministerial advisor in local government, planning, transport, education, main roads and with the office of Premier and Cabinet”. Also in the field are Tim Dangerfield of the Greens and independent William Borbasi. Walter Taylor was one of 16 wards won by Liberal in 2008, with 10 being won by Labor. Lord mayor Campbell Newman of the LNP serves a fixed four-year term regardless of the numbers on council.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,307 comments on “Armadale and Araluen and Walter Taylor”

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  1. Well it didn’t take Abbott long long to jump on the Mexican bandwagon

    Opposition leader Tony Abbott agrees with Mr Slim, saying the billionaire was echoing Coalition policy.

    “We’ve been saying for months now this is going to be a great big $43 billion white elephant that Australia doesn’t need,” he told ABC Radio

  2. John Reidy 37

    That is a great find! I am curious that none of our investigative journalists don’t ask Murdoch questions about his former views of broadband now? It woudl also be interesting if someone asked Tony Abbott whether he agreed with Rupert Murdoch’s view of broadband in Australia?

  3. This decision is exactly the sort of reasoin why NSW State Labor deserves to be kicked out on their corrupt butts:

    Socrates, do you know where these houses are in relation to the planned Coal-to-liquids plant/s planned for this area?

    NB I know there are such plants planned for the Hunter, as they were mentioned in the NSW “secret documents” on coal etc developments uncovered by FOI – in SMH last week, I think (I posted on it but didn’t keep the link) – but google’s links mention them only in passing.

  4. Hey just out of interested can anyone help me I am looking ofr an article… I can’t remember if it was in the SMH, Crickey, or if it was a Possum article or something or what but it was about the Howard governments waste. Can anyone help me out?

  5. [Joyce is a (N)national embarassment.]

    BK – the bloke is a joke so we just sent a note to Gillan. Thanked her for the early morning laugh and to say that, as she was laughing at the end of the interview, she must think that Joyce is as crazy as we do.

    Can you imagine him in an international setting or does he just put it on to keep his place as the best ‘retail politician’ Tone has.

  6. [howespaul | 46 seconds ago
    David Miliband bows out gracefully – if only all Labor politicans around the world could do that]

    I’m assuming he’s referring to Mark Arbib. 😉

  7. [howespaul | 46 seconds ago
    David Miliband bows out gracefully – if only all Labor politicans around the world could do that]


    This’ll be picked up by the Libs to restart the “unstable Labor government” meme.

  8. [That article on Murdoch’s opinions in regards to broadband before the ALP was in government is interesting. Has he actually voices his opinion in regards to this since the NBN was announced?]

    VP, the reason for Murdoch’s astonishing backflip may lie in c4years’ development of communication technology conversion, and its implications for near-instantaneous internationally streamed-via-personal-computer media (inc film downloads), which he failed to foresee as a threat to his newspaper/Fox/Sky/etc empire when he made this decision:

    [Mr Murdoch also ruled his Australian arm, News Limited, out of the race to snare the new 30-channel B licence for mobile television.

    After briefing shareholders on the seemingly limitless possibilities of next generation phones and mobile devices, Mr Murdoch told Media he was not interested in bidding for the licence, which is planned for auction next year. “We would sell our content into those services,” he said, “but we are not interested in owning those platforms. There are more attractive deals elsewhere.”]

  9. [howespaul | 46 seconds ago
    David Miliband bows out gracefully – if only all Labor politicans around the world could do that]

    … And it’s a particularly bad time to make such a comment after yesterday’s nice image of Kevin & Julia sitting together listening to Ken Wyatt’s speech.

  10. Nobody is going to ever tell me that Conroy is a dud – I’ve just read the LL transcript.
    Conroy left Turnbull for dead. Malcolm’s reputation as being the font of all wisdom on just about everything seems to be a bit shallow. Good to see Tony Jones actually challenging Liberal assumptions.

    [Stephen Conroy, come back to this wireless question: how will – since most people – or many, many people, like 25 per cent, Malcolm Turnbull says, people access the internet wirelessly through their telephones and iPads and other devices. How will it help them to have this fibre connection?

    STEPHEN CONROY: Well, Malcolm claims all the time he’s a techhead. Malcolm, if he’s a real techhead and is gonna be honest will admit that fibre is the best future-proof technology going around. It’s not gonna run out in 10 years, otherwise Malcolm’s gonna be claiming next that all those submarine cables built of fibre, all those interstate routes built of fibre are gonna have to be dug up and replaced by wireless.

    Fibre is the best future-proof technology. It works undersea, it works in the trunk roots and it will work to people’s homes.

    Yes, people want mobility. It’s tragic then that what Malcolm Turnbull and the Coalition’s current policy says is, “We’ll build a fixed wireless network.” That’s not a mobile network. Tony Abbott, Tony Smith, continue to argue about building a fixed wireless network, not a mobile network.]

  11. David Miliband is doing the right thing, because his brother will be a colossal disaster and so within 2 years, the British Labour Party will be begging for the other Miliband who SHOULD have won that leadership ballot. 😉

  12. [… And it’s a particularly bad time to make such a comment after yesterday’s nice image of Kevin & Julia sitting together listening to Ken Wyatt’s speech.]

    It’s also inappropriate given his role in Rudd Removal.

    Howes should just shut up about Rudd and let the government get on with governing.

  13. [David Miliband is doing the right thing, because his brother will be a colossal disaster and so within 2 years, the British Labour Party will be begging for the other Miliband who SHOULD have won that leadership ballot. ]
    Why will Ed Mil be a disaster?

  14. BH:

    Conroy was clearly across the detail of the NBN, and could refute all of Turnbull’s claims. Mal wasn’t happy at the end of the interview. He didn’t even say good night or thanks or whatever, just sat there glowering.

  15. [The official review of Regional Development Minister Brendon Grylls’ handling of a contentious Freedom of Information request involving Queensland billionaire Clive Palmer will be fast-tracked after a decision by Information Commissioner Sven Bluemmel.

    Mr Bluemmel will investigate whether Mr Grylls, leader of the WA Nationals who receive hefty political donations from Mr Palmer, had complied with an FOI request to disclose details of all meetings between the two between February last year and last May.

    Mr Grylls has faced intense speculation over his contact with Mr Palmer – who gave the Nationals $110,000 in 2008-09 – and whether it had any bearing on a decision by the Department of Environment to drop a $45 million environmental bond on Mr Palmer’s Balmoral South iron ore project in the Pilbara.. ]

    Should be interesting.

  16. …and while on state governments, from the AFR

    page 12: Bligh as a checkout chick: does this really play positively with Qld voters????

    page 13: Perth Arena cost blow out from $160m to $483m and c.3 years late…reources boom constraints? Or other forces at work

  17. Turnbull’s problem is that he really can’t do negative effectively at all. Turnbull does well when he is being positive, especially about something he believes in – thus the much more positive perception about him when he talks about climate change.

    I suspect Malcolm thinks nationwide fibre-based broadband infrastructure is actually a very good idea for both business and personal needs throughout this century, which is why when he talks negatively about it he is lost at sea. His heart isn’t in it.

  18. [latikambourke | 38 seconds ago
    funny moment on #doors this morning when MT kept calling the NBN the ‘National Broadcasting Network.’]

    Did anyone see or hear this?

    If you aren’t across the details of your portfolio it’s very easy to be brought undone.

  19. Confession

    There has been so many people who spoke out against the NBN, that there has to be some truth to what they are saying

    I read a report that less than 1% of internet traffic are currently business related or related to buying or selling of goods, more than 99% involve downloading, streaming of videos, twitting, web chat and games.

    It does seem a lot to spend on something that is 99% used for pleasure

  20. Just watched LL.
    One point re wireless – usage is growing – I believe the 25% figure quoted by Tony Squires for wireless Internet usage (I wouldn’t call it broadband) is correct.

    More and more mobile phones, laptops and devices like the ipad will want to use wireless for connectivity.
    However if that spectrum is used for fixed Internet services as a replacement/upgrade for ADSL then there simply will not be enough wireless spectrum to go around.

    The NBN will (or should) look like this
    1) fibre backbone to every suburb/town.
    2) fibre to every house for fixed Internet connectivity. Typical speed 1Gbps/100Mbps
    3) in house wiring or wi-fi for connecting within the home, domestic wi-fi typically has a range of 20m. Typical speed 10-100Mbps
    4) mobile wireless services using 3G,4G or wifi (and other future technologies).Typical speed 1Mbps – 10Mbps.

  21. In fact, if Malcolm wants to be PM I think he’s going to have to wrestle it from whoever is the next Lib PM. I can’t see him winning govt from opposition, simply because he can’t point out the negative very well at all – it sits uncomfortably on him. His only other option is to win by being the inspirational voice that takes the Australian people on some terrific journey… but I’m not sure he is up for that either.

    Perhaps Malcolm will be one of the greatest political disappointments of the early 21st century.

  22. AEC 2010 results web site has been updated.

    It seems that the results are now “final”. Up until yesterday each page had a warning that “results are not final”.

    This is good.

    However, for some reason the full preference counts and the preference flow results are not yet published. Normally they get published on the web pages within one month of the election. No sign of them yet for any seat. No sign of any overall stats on preference flows.

    Even more odd is that the pages that say that the preference flows are not available now also have the statement “These results are final”.

    Eg here is the page for national overall preference flows

  23. About Howard’s latest US Speech:

    ……….He hoped the English-speaking world saw this as a time “not to apologise for our particular identity, but to firmly and robustly assert it”: “One of the errors some sections of the English-speaking world has been to confuse multi-racialism and multi-culturalism.”

    This scum continues to look at issues which differentiates us rather than binds us. Moral and ethical values know no colour, no language, no religion. He just cannot understand this. When he said that we do not want people here who threw their children overboard (or wtte), it clearly indicated that in his mind and heart he believed that parents from a particular background were heartless. Now everyone knows that parental instinct is about one of the few things that is most consistent throughout the world. I have yet to come across a single parent who does not love his/her child and will give his/her life for their child.

    I have to be honest with all of you – I don’t know who to hate more – Howard or Abbott? I give up.

  24. adam abdool

    Howard is an anglophile stuck in pre WW2 mind sets.

    He is a recalicitrant pebble in several of history’s major tides: By the end of this century more than 50% of England will be black, the majority language in the US will be spanish, the dominant empires will be non-english speaking, and AGW will be a fairly horribly reality.

    The real pity for Australia is that Howard had, and used, the opportunity to hold back a sensible response by Australia to these world trends.

  25. PM presser coming up soon.

    Am genuinely surprised the Green Loans ANAO report hasn’t been given coverage this morning! I expected wall-to-wall Labor incompetent stories today.

  26. About the NBN, do we have any here from Tassie who have the new NBN? I wanted to know about the speed both in surfing and downloading.

    We have the Telstra elite plan which is Ok but I don’t mind spending a few more dollars for speed is is twice (let alone hundred times) my existing speed.

  27. @dovif/75

    Link or it didn’t?

    Large Sights/companies like Ebay, Gaming distribution platforms such as Sony, Xbox Market place and Steam.

    They all businesses or related to business who are investing online.

    Alot of people also use Word of mouth to create sales, not necessarily online yet.

    Copper network, which was meant for communications, has now become an entertainment/prosperity/Entertainment/etc Industry. The same will happen for NBN.

    Wireless originally was meant to be used for mobility or hard to reach places, but now you have entertainment devices like iPhone and Blackberry with entertainment software, videos and games.

    Your forgetting the reason why Broadband was becoming popular in the first place, VIDEO, which is mostly entertainment.

  28. [Mal wasn’t happy at the end of the interview. He didn’t even say good night or thanks or whatever, just sat there glowering.]

    confessions – that came through in the transcript and Jones actually ran a good interview

  29. [ I have to be honest with all of you – I don’t know who to hate more – Howard or Abbott? I give up. ]

    adam, you can hate them both equally. No need to choose. 😉

  30. [ Mal wasn’t happy at the end of the interview. He didn’t even say good night or thanks or whatever, just sat there glowering. ]

    As I recall, Turnbull had pulled off his earpiece before the end of the interview, as Jones was winding up. Very poor form.

  31. dovif

    Good point.

    Please tell Abbott because The Wrecker wants to spend $6 billion so that people can mostly have better fun. He has done no cost/benefit analysis and no feasibility study.

  32. Dr Good 81

    I would say at least 5/7 of road usage is for work related, people getting to work, people going home and people travelling between jobs (Monday to Friday) and the Saturday and Sunday is people get to shopping center (buying goods) and restaurants

    So I would say 90%

  33. brisoz

    Yeah, there are business whose business is gaming, who invent game that are played over the internet, I once spend 12 hours straight playing one of those game…. while it was enjoyable, I am not sure if that was very productive for the Nation or very good for me, as I went to bed with a headache

  34. dovif/94,

    It’s money for companies, it’s money for the broadband ISP and taxes goto the Government.

    It’s another form of Entertainment, which is growing and you lied, It’s very productive, especially in games like Starcraft 2 where you have to think on your feet.

  35. If there were to be a mainly wireless network, would the current communications towers in the suburbs be able to provide the service? Would there need to be more communications towers? What about in populated rural areas such as some of Victoria e.g Gippsland?

  36. One interesting thing about Ken Wyatt’s kangaroo skin coat.

    One of the significant cultural divisions within Aboriginal Australia involves those who used animal skins for clothing and those who did not.

    (Please note that I am not writing this as a criticism of Ben Wyatt in any way. Areas he is associated with by descent and currently represnts are ones where kangaroos skins were worn as a matter of course.)

    In eastern Australia, and on the west and south west coast people regularly used cloaks and wraps made from animal skins (mainly possum skins in the east, but kangaroo skins were used too in both areas) for warmth, and for ceremonial purposes. Skins were even used in Victoria to provide waterproof coverage of humpies.

    In central Australia, though, and the western and south Australian desert areas, such usage, especially of kangaroo skins, runs completely counter to traditional Indigenous law. The manner in which kangaroos are dealt with after killing is clearly prescribed in myth and requires the kangaroo to be cooked whole with the skin intact (after removal of the intestines for separate cooking, and the leg sinews for use as cord, the breaking of legs, and sometimes the severing of the tail). This, of course, completely destroys the skin.

    Back in the 1980’s when I was working on matters relating to the potential impact of the Roxby Downs project on local Indigenous groups I interviewed an old Southern Arrernte man called Tom Brady, who sang me one of the long ranging song cycles (this one runs from SW Victoria through the Roxby Downs area all the way to the Arnhemland coast – it even passes through the Araluen electorate in Alice Springs on the way!). It dealt with the travels of a dreaming hero who originally came from the central part of Australia, but then spent a substantial period in the south east (where kangaroos were skinned before cooking so the skins could be used).

    When he reached what is now the Roxby Downs region he killed two kangaroos and spread out their skins to dry in the south eastern manner. He had “forgotten” the law of the region he was now in. The Kokatha, Arabuna, and those people to the north and west of them, follow the central Australian law with respect to kangaroos. The skins blighted the earth, creating the great salt lakes we now call Lake Torrens and Lake Eyre.

    Back when I was living in Alice Springs a few years before this one of the town Aboriginal women who worked for the Alice Springs legal aid service got married. Unlike most Indigenous “town” people at that time she had a close relationship with traditionally oriented people from the bush, and asked a group of Pitjantjatjara families to attend her post wedding party. It was a wonderful event until one of the Pitjantjatjara men asked what the meat in the kebabs that were being barbecued was. On being told it was kangaroo there was great consternation. The kangaroo , quite obviously, had not been butchered or cooked in the correct fashion and some of the Pitjantjatjara people had eaten it. They were terribly upset and left looking very troubled. Needless to say, Maria (the bride) was terribly upset, too.

    Its for reasons like this that I wish the media and politicians would get down to the nitty gritty far more often, and go and speak directly, preferably through interpreters, with Aboriginal people in remote areas when developing policy, rather than following a “one size fits all” approaches like the Intervention in Central Australia, based primarily on the views of highly assimilated and western educated people from far way in east coast Queensland.

  37. [He hoped the English-speaking world saw this as a time “not to apologise for our particular identity, but to firmly and robustly assert it”: “One of the errors some sections of the English-speaking world has been to confuse multi-racialism and multi-culturalism.”]

    adam abdool – thanks for keeping us up to date on his US visit. I hope we’re not paying for it and I can’t understand why Beasley had to have him at the Embassy.

    It’s sad that the old devil still can’t accept changes in society. We can see where Abbott is coming from everytime Howard speaks.

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