Remember to keep following the late count action in the Photo Finishes threads below. In lieu of any new commentary on the current situation, now might be a good time to draw attention to the fact that I wrote a conference paper last year on minority government formation and the rise of the Greens. Meantime, here’s a new thread for general discussion.
OK. Assuming that the Rabbott is going to be the new PM.
What policies did he actually have to put to the parliament?
PPL wasn’t due til 2014. Can someone enlighten me?
Let’s hope that the presence of independants will make it hard for him to foster the tried & true Howard method of blowing the ‘debt’ problem into a crisis to retain power.
From rodent to reptile in three years.
That’s evolution for you!
TP,
Don’t you remember, Gillard only put herself forward as a candidate for PM because Rudd asked his COS to sound out whether she’d been doing the numbers.
She was shocked and outraged I tell you.
Anthony Green on RN(Australia Talking) saying Wilkie is there barring an overwhelming reversal. Most other seats are trending towards Liberal. Not happy reporting this but there it is.
I can’t speak for Qld, but in NSW the complete farce over the last 5 years (or more) re: public transport infrastructure announcements (amongst other things, but very specifically related to the federal election campaign in the case of PT). The multiple rail line plans that have been drawn up, announced and then dropped. The on-again-off-again-on-again-off-again metro. The screwed up ticketing system tendering process.
In that atmosphere, what should have been a straight up infrastructure announcement (the Parramatta-Epping rail extension) was suddenly tied to the failure of the state government, and the overwhelming cynicism the Sydney public now has at every public transport announcement. That was a devastating mistake, and directly tied to the state ALP government.
Funny how the rabbit thinks we’ll all buy his turning over a new leaf to be kinder and more gentle – he’s really working hard to get into Kirribilli House and ensure his personal household budget returns to surplus.
One of the biggest issue the ALP had in this election was underestimating Abbott
Since he was elected Liberal leader, the ALP has been waiting for him to stuff up.
While he had a few stuff up, ie I lies (which not many liars would admit) and Workchoice (which was more the shadow workplace stuff up). He had stuffed up less than Rudd and Gillard (citizen assembly, real Julia). I think he came off better than Gillard in the debate and town hall sessions (with help from Rudd)
He has done much better than my wildest imagination, the fact that he is 1 to 2 seat from being PM is amazing.
You guys can continue to wait for him to implode, I did not think he was ready, but he had grown to be a formidable opposition leader and alternate prime minister. I think it will be a mistake for the ALP to expect him to stuff up
Dee, Abott has no legislative agenda that I can think of. It’s going to be very interesting.
[There are a number of distinct steps, all of which need to be critically and ruthlessly examined by Labor. These include the ETS ]
I might add also the fact that Rudd was working on a CC policy to take to an October election, so he was well aware that something serious had to be put on the table for an election.
[pithicus
Posted Tuesday, August 24, 2010 at 6:51 pm | Permalink
I heard William saying on news radio about an hour ago that brisbane was no hope for alp. Is this correct]
is that assuming that the indies go the other way william
jimp called us all knobs.
Maybe some truth to that, but this poster has put down no opinion. Wus.
[because Rudd asked his COS to sound out whether she’d been doing the numbers. ]
Goodness, why would Rudd do such a thing. Hmmmm maybe because that is what she was doing.
[Let’s hope that the presence of independants will make it hard for him to foster the tried & true Howard method of blowing the ‘debt’ problem into a crisis to retain power]
WILLIAM ARE U ASSUMING NO INDIES WILL COME WITH US
I may have jumped the gun. Corangamite from absentees is a possible hold, but barely. La Trobe is fine.
Therefore, if we hold on to Corangamite:
ALP: 72 + Wilkie + Bandt = 74
Lib: 73
Ind: 3 (not including Wilkie)
Then we have the pulling power of a green senate… we offer Oakeshott a Ministry and Windsor as Speaker. Katter can come along on the ride or not.
Leaving:
ALP: 76
Lib: 73
(And whatever Katter chooses to do)
Sorry to scare you bludgers!
[Presumably they did not preference him in the prepolls either though and maybe these are some sort of guide. I am going to plug those into sykesies model (see Photo Finishes: Denison) and see what comes out.]
I did and found no evidence that Wilkie did worse on preferences in those.
Yes James :p too early to hit the panic button. It’s not going to be the end of the world either way.
Parramatta-Epping rail extension was a big mistake
Since it had been announce by the NSW ALP about 8 times and has not been built
I think 6 months ago, the NSW ALP announce that they have shelved it for 5 years, since there was no marginal NSW ALP seats in the area
For Gillard to announce it in the last 2 weeks of the campaign, just reminded NSW of all ALP broken promises,and when the federal ALP had broken its fair share of promises (ETS, School computers etc) that announcement probably cost the ALP 1%
[Gary
Posted Tuesday, August 24, 2010 at 6:41 pm | Permalink
Well… that was that. Lib/Nats are in for generations.
To be makinfg these types of statement now is just madness.]
gary is william assuming no indies will come to us??????
[then Abbott is a Liberal hero for the ages. ]
It is also quite conceivable that the public get to dislike Abbott very quickly when as PM. Especially since he isn’t known for any particular skill in creating, implementing, selling policy.
My say, what question about Wilkie?
People need to calm down. A couple of points:
1. It isn’t over until Julia speaks to the GG. Leave the analysis until after that. (It simply becomes ammunition in the MSM – they are so lazy they will read this rather than do their own analysis.)
2. The independents don’t sound keen on working with Abbott. In fact, it sounds like they enjoy seeing him squirm.
3. Julia has the full backing of the parliamentary arm for a reason. She needs the backing of the left voters as well to steel her arm. She is well respected in parliament – on all sides.
4. She is from the Victorian left. The swing went left.
5. And, whatever you do – don’t blink.
James Bodentown
Posted Tuesday, August 24, 2010 at 7:14 pm | Permalink
I may have jumped the gun. Corangamite from absentees is a possible hold, but barely. La Trobe is fine.
Therefore, if we hold on to Corangamite:
ALP: 72 + Wilkie + Bandt = 74
Lib: 73
Ind: 3 (not including Wilkie)
Then we have the pulling power of a green senate… we offer Oakeshott a Ministry and Windsor as Speaker. Katter can come along on the ride or not.
[Leaving:
ALP: 76
Lib: 73
(And whatever Katter chooses to do)
Sorry to scare you bludgers!]
SIN BIN
lol well u keep us on our toes but ididnt enjoy my dinner,
[Gweneth
Posted Tuesday, August 24, 2010 at 7:17 pm | Permalink
People need to calm down. A couple of points:
1. It isn’t over until Julia speaks to the GG. Leave the analysis until after that. (It simply becomes ammunition in the MSM – they are so lazy they will read this rather than do their own analysis.)
2. The independents don’t sound keen on working with Abbott. In fact, it sounds like they enjoy seeing him squirm.]
thank you for that, so correct, my oh said it was wonderful the way katter got in to the media they just stood there perhaps there should be more of it.
yes i think the media to read here so that s why we must be up beat
and send good vibes out
Thomas Paine
You are into scenarios. Get this one. Arbib & Bitar push Gillard to take the leadership to get rid of both her & Rudd.
Not one, not one has said that anyone had loyalty issues with Gillard. Everyone who has worked with her said she takes loyalty and confidence to a new level. She installed Rudd there with her numbers. She stuck with Latham even when he went feral.
The opposition, months before this all happened said she was one of the most trustworthy & loyal in parliament aside from Falkner.
I believe that the two most capable & popular ministers were assassinated from a force unknown. Myself, being the cynic believe the mining industry was driving it. Laurie Ferguson was not a believer in AGW. Was a great mate to the mining industry.
I’m telling you here now that this all goes back to corporations. They hired a gun & Arbib & Bitar were the bullets.
excuse me it was so you would notice that all.
James Bodentown, feel free to read my post #3900 … worst case should still see ALP ahead in Corangamite. Not so sure about Hasluck
Dee, you’re thinking of Martin, not Laurie.
[‘Well… that was that. Lib/Nats are in for generations’
Rainsinger – I’d have to agree. If the Abbort gets up he wont f##ck up like Labor and give away government. Like his lamentable mentor, he’ll use every trick he can to retain power for as long as possible. Labor just arent in the same league when it comes to playing hardball]
Can you people “hear” yourselves. Haven’t you learned anything from the last three years? After Rudd was elected we were all confidently predicting that Labor woukl govern for the next ten years. Then when the Liberals tore themselves apart over the ETS and Abbott took over we all said he was unelectable.
Yet despite all that you seriously think you can predict the political outlook for generations ahead. You just don’t know how ridiculous that sounds.
That’s the view I leant to for a long while, but right now I’m not so sure about it. Yes, the media have been displaying bias, but they’ve also been simply smelling blood and being drawn to the source. The fact that there was blood to smell in the first place is something the ALP did have control of.
Over-estimating, more likely. They could have, and should have, squashed him early. He’s not the sort of man you should ever treat as a worthy opponent. He’s a lightweight, he’s policy-averse and slogan-rich. He got elevated into an unearnt position of worth by everyone concerned, not least the ALP themselves.
An early sign that they were taking him seriously was not sticking by the ETS. Stay with it, and you smoke him out. Let it go, and you send the signal that his attacks are potent. Ditto asylum seekers. Don’t be afraid of your policies.
The man got far too much oxygen. He should have been choked the minute he took office. And then stood on until he stopped wriggling.
Easy in hindsight, though. I understood the reasoning behind each move the ALP made. But then I thought they were fully behind Rudd at the time, which looks a very shaky assumption to make.
Tony Windsor has said he will not take a minisrty or be speaker
[Dee, you’re thinking of Martin, not Laurie.]
Oops!
Thankyou.
James B. Good thinking but Windsor categorically ruled out taking speakership on Q&A last night.
[We have to go and have a look at exactly why Rudd became political poison in the first place. ]
I think that is buying into the MSM and Labor Right meme. His polls went down, but were still about what all PMs usually expect, and the ‘poison’ seemed to be drying up as he was on the way up again. (Maybe why Gillard move quickly)
Can I say on the subject of nicknames that ‘the Mad Monk’ is much preferable to ‘the rabbit’ for Tony Abbott. Rabbit from rAbbott is about as witty as KRudd.
Oh, and regarding a word that is frequently being misspelt – there’s no ‘a’ in ‘independent’. There is one in ‘pedant’ though 🙂
If ALP ends up on 72 – should not they go INTO A FORMAL COALITION with the Greens?
Control of the senate addresses Oakeshott’s point.
It will be a coalition that matches the 73 that the 15 parties that make up the Lib/Nat coalition in terms of seats (including the WA Nat, and if he doesn’t join Tone formally then they only have 72)
The ALP-GRN coalition, further, annhialates the other Coalition on both 2PP and combined primary vote?
This would give the 3 independents little persuasive to deny such a coalition confidence in the house?
Is this not reasonably compelling???
I hope this close result means Julia is not obliged to make Kevin Rudd a minister for anything. Seriously his ‘victory’ speech on Saturday night was sickening.
I doubt the Greens would want to go into coalition with Labor and it’d be heavily resisted by the caucus.
The other factor that would render an ALP-GRN coalition extra stability in the reps would be to give the speakership to Katter/Oakeshott or even a Lib. Am pretty sure Windsor is on the record that he will not accept it…
Expat, Labor could offer it to Bronwyn :).
James, I believe you have made ltep look like an optimist.
Abbott: the man who pushed Hockey to challenge and then stood himself.
Abbott: the man who got to lead because Joe Hockey couldn’t count.
Abbott: the man who split the moderate vote to appease big oil.
Abbott: the man who is in contention for PM to appease big miners.
LTEP – give them 18% of the ministries to match their primary vote – including climate change. Don’t they want a shot at actually governing one day?
aguire
That was the ALP problem, Abbott foresaw the disaster of Copenhagen, and beat Rudd
Abbott came up with the great big new tax slogan, very effective
The ALP did try to get to him, they just was not successiful, ie Workchoice
[Let’s hope that the presence of independants will make it hard for him to foster the tried & true Howard method of blowing the ‘debt’ problem into a crisis to retain power.]
The independents will not support the privitisation of medibank private so that cuts $5bn from their debt reduction path.
[Abbott came up with the great big new tax slogan, very effective]
That was Barnaby’s line before Copenhagen. Abbott just copied him.
Dovif, actually Joyce came up with the great big new tax line I believe. Abbott has been extremely lucky, winning the leadership by 1 vote and now probably the election by 1 seat. It really was extraordinarily lucky that he won just enough seats…
7 nat seats – 4% of vote
1 green seat – 13% of vote
I have a problem with this.
Good thing we have the senate bop.
It is now 71 all on the ABC site -Brisbane is back in contention.
[The ALP did try to get to him, they just was not successiful, ie Workchoice]
They were successful on the economy. Labor turned around the ‘better economic manager’ question in Newspoll from a deficit to a small positve IIRC.
Abbott was successfully painted as vacuous when it comes to the nation’s finances.
If we get Oakeshott + 74 then Windsor should come along, speaker or not. Katter probably would too if we had both indys especially if we make some sort of agri promise to them both.