D-day plus 2

Remember to keep following the late count action in the Photo Finishes threads below. In lieu of any new commentary on the current situation, now might be a good time to draw attention to the fact that I wrote a conference paper last year on minority government formation and the rise of the Greens. Meantime, here’s a new thread for general discussion.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,146 comments on “D-day plus 2”

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  1. I am just wondering whether the abandonment by the major political parties of “principle” in favour of adopting policies identified in focus groups as necessary to win important marginal seats, is resulting in close elections and “hung” parliaments ?

  2. Someone had stated on a thread some time ago, that the AEC (unlike previous practice) would count all pre-poll votes on election night. However, all the seats I have looked at on the AEC website do not have a figure for pre-poll votes. Did the AEC count the pre-poll on election night? If so, why have the figures not been plugged into the disclosed figures on the AEC website?

  3. [Did the AEC count the pre-poll on election night? If so, why have the figures not been plugged into the disclosed figures on the AEC website?]

    In seats I’ve been watching those cast within the electorate are included as booths, eg “Glenorchy DENISON PPVC”.

  4. 2 PY

    The pre-poll counts on Saturday night are to be found among the polling places in each division. They were ‘own-division’ pre-poll votes cast as ordinary votes (not in envelopes). Hence their inclusion with the other ordinary vote counts of polling places.
    They are usually described as PPVC (Pre-Poll Voting Centre). The ‘out of division’ pre-poll votes were in declaration envelopes and will be counted later after checking and verification.

  5. #2

    Withdraw that.

    I now see the pre-poll cast in person are counted as a “Polling Place” – Divisional Office .

  6. The reason I asked about pre-poll cast in person at a Divisional pre-poll booth was at the back of my head that on an “exit poll” pre-polling was going 54-46. Even if that be correct, these Division HQ pre-poll votes seem a very small fraction of the total “non election day booth” votes.

  7. PY 6

    In Hasluck polling places for example, see ‘Midland Hasluck PPVC’ where 2708 ballot papers were counted on Saturday night, a significant number.

    In contrast ‘Divisional Office Pre-poll’ polling place is still showing NIL votes counted. Other divisions show a similar arrangements for these votes.

  8. The editorial of the New England regional newspaper, the Northern Daily Leader (Fairfax) is pushing for the rural Independents to support Gillard:-
    [ It is this paper’s belief – and one we have stated many times – that the conservative independents have an obligation to give the Rudd-Gillard government a second term.
    A failure to do so would make this the first one-term federal government since before WWII.
    To force a change of government when the opposition has not won a clear majority of seats would represent a serious short-circuiting of the democratic process.
    This is particularly the case given an independent-backed ALP minority government would be inherently more stable than its Coalition equivalent.
    With the independents citing broadband and stable government as major issues, they seem to have no option but to back Labor.
    To do otherwise would be to appear as if they were self-indulgently pandering to their own electorates at the expense of the national interest.
    ]
    Second-term support a must

  9. Has anybody looked in detail at Sydney? The Greens are 1,900 votes behind the Libs, with about 2,500 preferences to be allocated by minor parties, and 3 outstanding polling booths. If the Greens overtake the Libs, then it might bite the ALP for only have 44% of the first preferences. Similar in Grayndler, where the AEC starts doing 2CP recount today IIRC.

  10. #9 & #10

    For the Greens it looks like so close, but yet so far.

    I think everyone under-estimated the strength of the likely Green support in both those seats. It would be encouraging for the Greens in Marrickville, Balmain and possibly Heffron in the 2011 state election.

  11. The Federal Labor party is going to have to have a good look at why their campaigns are traditionally so poor in Queensland.

    A state Government determined to make life more difficult and dearer wherever possible doesn’t help. It needs to have a look at why every one is working long hours on short term contracts with no permanent job security too.

    Campaigns are seriously deficient when Labor can lose almost all its wards in the last Brisbane City council election, almost lose a state election and lag the nation in a Federal election.

  12. It would appear the latte sippers in New England overwhelmingly support Windsor backing a coalition government:-
    [ The Muffin Break coffee bean poll at Tamworth’s Shopping World put the Coalition ahead of Labor by a factor of almost seven to one.
    Local coffee drinking support for the Coalition stood at nine fingers of beans on Saturday.
    The ALP, by contrast, could only muster up one and a half fingers of beans – the same as The Greens.
    ]
    Tony’s choice…

  13. William

    Interesting paper, and thanks for posting it.

    In one sense every time we have an LNP govt we have ‘minority’ govt. It amused me to see Robb on Insiders claiming yesterday that Labor would be torn apart by internal inspection and pay-back, whereas his side was ‘unified’. Really? At last count there were 5 parties / divisions making up the ‘Coalition’, and the National in WA has sworn to sit on the cross-benches.

    I see within 20 years an ALP/Greens minority govt to be common, workable and even desirable. Although, I am not sure how that will work in the upper house where the Greens see their main advantage as operating the balance of power. Would this mean all negotiations around bills happen in the lower house and the upper house trends towards a ‘house of rubber stamp’?

  14. On the hustings it was funny. The Greens, ALP, Sex party, independents all happily chated, shared stories and generally despised Rabbott. The Libs kept to themselves, parked in the disabled spot….and FF bussed in from local church, didn’t speak much english, and sat on their own eating fruit bread, and fruit.

    The future is Green- and if it pushes ALP to left, then that’s a good thing. One of Katter’s demands was mandatory ethanol 10%. If there are any engineers lurking can they tell me why this is a bad idea. And more importantly why not have engines that are 100% ethanol. Race cars are!

  15. Centrebet will today post Mr Shorten as a $2.70 favourite to lead the Labor Party to the next federal election, ahead of Julia Gillard at $4.20.

  16. In one sense every time we have an LNP govt we have ‘minority’ govt. It amused me to see Robb on Insiders claiming yesterday that Labor would be torn apart by internal inspection and pay-back, whereas his side was ‘unified’. Really? At last count there were 5 parties / divisions making up the ‘Coalition’, and the National in WA has sworn to sit on the cross-benches.

    Excellent point: LNP, Liberals, Nationals, CLP and WA Nationals, contesting each other’s seats, taking over each other’s parties, refusing to sit in the chamber with each other, caucusing separately, disagreeing often (on social issues especially) and generally hating each other’s guts.

  17. Does Greg Combet and Shorten get on? If so Combet deputy, Rudd foreign affairs, Crean, smith, swan-something but not treasury,

  18. Having just watched 7.30 report, I’m very impressed with the calm and common sense of the independents, Australia is richer for them. That’s including Katter who is reported to be mad as a …

    Centaur

    I think that the Alp needs to pull the greens back to the left of centre on economical policies and the greens need to pull the ALP over to the left on climate policies.

    It was interesting what Tony Windsor said about the Nationals dying. With the exception of the Nationals in Qld which is hard to calculate because of the merger, the Nationals have received about 380 000 votes nationally. So Qld is very important to the Lib/Nats nationally. I think the Libs will be counting on more preferences especially now that the nation has been reminded that indep. can be an alternative.

  19. [Excellent point: LNP, Liberals, Nationals, CLP and WA Nationals, contesting each other’s seats, taking over each other’s parties, refusing to sit in the chamber with each other, caucusing separately, disagreeing often (on social issues especially) and generally hating each other’s guts.]

    Stable Govt? 😆

  20. If the ALP manage to scrape through, and that’s extremely doubtful, there’s little chance Gillard will be replaced in my view. This electoral cycle should tell people the damage changing leaders can do.

  21. If the Labor party change leaders now, they’ll be in opposition for a long time. STUPID STUPID STUPID. Again the NSW right may be stirring things up.

  22. Credit where it is due, Fran nailed george sinodius on RN, when in 1998, the ALP had a higher PV and 2pp.
    He said “but the coalition had more seats in parliament….”,

  23. So the OO says Abbott has MOMENTUM?? All I have seen is a petulant child demanding his own way.

    If Labor win Hasluck and Labor go 73/72, with Wilkie and Brandt, that makes 75. Only need 1 indie. I wonder if the indies will insist on being a block

  24. dogma, dont bite, the libs and their MSM mates are trolling to stir up instability. Fran Kelly on ABC radio yesterday gave the game away- they are going to argue that they are more stable than Labor

  25. Well NSW Labor may not know how to stamp out corruption but they do know how to avoid blame. The rewriting of history has already begun. Kenneally says that the dismal result in Sydney is Kevin Rudd’s fault because he failed to invest in NSW (Sydney) infrastructure:
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/rudds-fault-for-dismal-result-says-keneally-20100822-13ayu.html?autostart=1

    This is wrong in so many levels:
    – the funding recommendations were made by Infrastructure Australia, set up by Labor in Sydney!
    – NSW Labor didn’t get their money for a half-baked Metro proposla that all agreed wouldn’t work
    – Public transport was a state responsibility under Howard, and NSW has abysmally failed to fund any major improvements for almost ten years. The problem is with NSW Treasury, not Rudd.

    Meanwhile Paul Sheehan suffers from a similar delusion:
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/the-yarra-monster-is-killing-us-20100822-13apt.html

    I can understand why the politiicans can’t admit that the problem in Sydney is due to corrupt decision making and incompetence. But why can’t the journalists admit it? Thanks to the QLD and WA mining boom NSW and Vic have both benefitted from federal cash redistributed from the north and west. The citizens with grounds to complain about financial splits are in Perth and Brisbane. Sydney can’t afford to fund its trains because of a horribly bloated City rail organisation and corrupt land development decisions where developers are not required to put in infrastructure when subdivisions proceed, even though selling land in Sydney is very profitable.

    Under Howard NSW was actually given an extra $800M to hand over the NSW parts of the ARTC network, in a blatant piece of extortion. NSW hadn’t maintained the network in years and they were unloading a large liaibility.

  26. [centaur009
    Posted Monday, August 23, 2010 at 7:16 am | Permalink
    I thought ALP would win not Wilkie, has this changed in last 24 hours]

    my hubby just said how impressed he is with the independent from pt macquarie

    Name? he says the papers can stop anticipating because he will do what is good for the country. Why hasn’t some one said that before hu ra!

    Also has any one noticed the sbs programme re abbott,
    then the picture of tone that was not as nice as Julia on front page
    now what is the next move on this chess board i am thinking

    and i will let others say first but just think about it,

  27. Slight change of of tac

    Abbot has adopted similar tactics to the GOP in the US, and to a lesser degree the tories in the UK. These are:

    Oppose everying when in opposition – inlcuding imigration on humanitarian grounds, tax reform, social spending, religious mulitiplicity. (Abbot had the benefit of a conservative senate)

    Attack the other party as incompetent, attack margninal groups (particulary asylum seekers), and attack on moral grounds. Subtle, but agressive, bully boy tactics.

    The Rebublicans are doing this to great efect against the Obama administration. They used it gainst Clinton under Newt Gingrich and the Bush adminisntration was able to use it to great effect against Kerry and others.

    IN the leadup to the election in UK this year Cameron employed a simlar tactic. Attack labor on spending, incompeteence and immigration. But Cameron faced a similar dynamic in the UK election- the British electorate was tired of labor but not willing to embrace a full change to conservative government. The LIberal Democrats polled well again (but less than the previous election) – and Cameron was forced into an alliance to form government.

    The conservative parties (particulary in anglophone countries) have a shallow and uninspiring platform on which to campaign – and the results are showing up in elections.
    They are not winning outright majorities – becasue they have no real plan or vision for the country.

  28. [Posted Monday, August 23, 2010 at 7:16 am | Permalink
    I thought ALP would win not Wilkie, has this changed in last 24 hours]

    well not knowing a lot how preferences are done but oh commented something about labor being too far in front so havent heard this morning.

  29. [Andrew
    Posted Monday, August 23, 2010 at 7:24 am | Permalink
    centaur, its undecided. wilkie ran no postals campaign]

    andrew centour. what do you think i am thinking post 33

  30. [25 dogma
    Posted Monday, August 23, 2010 at 7:03 am | Permalink
    If the Labor party change leaders now, they’ll be in opposition for a long time. STUPID STUPID STUPID. Again the NSW right may be stirring things up]

    are the other mob thinking of changing, ????

  31. my say

    Oakeshott is the independent from Port Macquarie. Windsor is the one from Tamworth. As I said yesterday, neither are rednecks; both are quite reasonable. They just want a better deal for the voters in their seats.

  32. Socrates
    [Well NSW Labor may not know how to stamp out corruption but they do know how to avoid blame. The rewriting of history has already begun. Kenneally says that the dismal result in Sydney is Kevin Rudd’s fault because he failed to invest in NSW (Sydney) infrastructure]
    I shouldn’t worry too much about Keneally…216 days to go before she ceases to be premier (but who’s counting :D)

  33. I think blame can be spread around in this case. Rudd did an *extremely* poor job of playing internal Labor politics, and he has nobody but himself to blame for it. I know that the factions are inefficient, corrupt, and increasingly irrelevant in light of the ALP’s declining base, but ignoring and antagonizing them (like Rudd did) is not the proper way to enact reform.

  34. …the libs and their MSM mates are trolling to stir up instability.

    They’re trying to set up a George W Bush scenario where a phoney urgency is attached to everything (with a result in their favour, of course).

    The basic result of the election is that the electorate didn’t want a change of government badly enough to get the Coalition over the line. It seems like two states (one strongly and one moderately) and maybe one territory did, but we have six states and two territories in our Commonwealth. The Coalition has no automatic brief for government.

    I know it seems self-serving to say this, but the disruption in the public service – new heads of departments right down to new stationery, wholesale laying-off of public servants, clearing out of offices, interruption of policies mid-stream etc. – is a terrible price to pay for a government that may not last beyond a year. The result is not clear-cut enough for that kind of upheaval.

    For the Coalition to be anointed into power they will have to compromise many of their policies, too many: the NBN and CC are two of the big ones, at least.

    Labor has saved Australia from recession, left us high and dry after the economic tsunami and in good shape for the future. Many of the voters fell for the “waste” mantra, but I wouldn’t think the independents fell for it as conmprehensively.

    Abbott’s basic argument is that Labor should be punished for wrecking the economy. Labor’s argument in return should be that they have been punished enough. Since they didn’t wreck the economy, as the Coalition alleges (in fact they saved it), this is where the punishment should stop: punishment for poor process, but short of losing government. The question is whether the independents agree with the former or the latter. Assuming they are reasonable men, I’d think they would agree with Labor.

    It’s interesting to see that the Independents want to see the Treasury books, and the costings, and are even thinking of calling in the ratings agencies to get an overall picture of their options. This is the scrutiny that the MSM and the Coalition didn’t want. There’s no point running attack ads now, or delivering blustering stump speeches, like Abbott is trying to do. The campaign is concluded. Reason should now take over. Abbott doth protest too much on this score.

    If these are the criteria, I’m pretty sure the Independents will support Labor, provided Labor’s final seat count is respectable. There’s hardly an expert economic commentator, professor or even Economics Nobel Prize winner anywhere in the world that isn’t amazed and in awe of Labor’s boldness and success in combatting the GFC. Those opinions should count for a lot, if the Independents look at the problem impartially.

  35. Laocoon

    Thanks. I realise Kennealy is just a right wing sock-puppet of Tripodi and co. How I will celebrate when that lot are turfed out of power.

    Sadly for Sydney, it will take a decade to undo the damage that lot have done to the city (at least as far as failure to invest in public transport is concerned). I suspect the situation is no better in health either.

  36. Good morning bludgers, well, how accurate was that last Newspoll, amazing stuff.
    I think we’ll be back to the polls in a month or two and we’ll get to see Julia and Tony strutting their stuff again, just don’t see how there can be stability.
    But I think the Coalition have the best chance if there is to be a try, for one thing Tony Burke harped on repeatedly on election night how he thought the postals would favour the Libs because of when they were lodged, during the leaks saga.
    Incidentally who will decide if there is to be another election, the caretaker, or the leader of the first attempt at forming a Government, or the Governor-General.
    Can someone elaborate on that, I’d appreciate it.

  37. BB
    [They’re trying to set up a George W Bush scenario where a phoney urgency is attached to everything (with a result in their favour, of course).]
    And the usual suspects are coming out…

    Here is the lead business story in the online OO:
    [Corporates fear policy mayhem after election result

    BUSINESS believes a hung parliament and the Greens holding the Senate balance of power could cause uncertainty and hit economic reform. ]
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/corporates-fear-policy-mayhem-after-election-result/story-e6frg8zx-1225908603438

  38. Corporates fear policy mayhem after election result

    BUSINESS believes a hung parliament and the Greens holding the Senate balance of power could cause uncertainty and hit economic reform.

    Well, unfortunately for them, the Greens already hold hold the balance of power and there’s nothing they can do about it.

    The people may have decided to punish Labor and promote the Coalition (short of giving them untrammelled power), but the people ALSO decided to give the Greens the BOP. You can’t pick and choose your mandates.

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