D-day plus 2

Remember to keep following the late count action in the Photo Finishes threads below. In lieu of any new commentary on the current situation, now might be a good time to draw attention to the fact that I wrote a conference paper last year on minority government formation and the rise of the Greens. Meantime, here’s a new thread for general discussion.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,146 comments on “D-day plus 2”

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  1. Abbott may have may a mistake by saying as Leader of The House he reformed the MPI process.

    Windsor reckons he did as well, with one aim in mind – to screw the indies.

  2. Dee#3926

    I agree Rudd was deposed as Leader for taking on the miners. This has been my opinion all along. As soon as he took on the miners, he was a marked man. It is obvious to anyone who cares to take notice.
    Think of the hysteria by the media and the mining companies at the time. Rudd was not going to survive that. Think of the leaks during the campaign. To undermine Julia. Are we really surprised we find ourselves here. After all, look what happened to Gough Whitlam.

    Mind you, I am not into conspiracy theories!

  6. Are we still going for the single cause theories? Bah. I could write a whole essay on where both sides went wrong. There was no “moment”

  7. [Seriously his ‘victory’ speech on Saturday night was sickening.]

    I saw it and I recommend it. It was pretty good stuff.

  10. Thomas Paine,

    There was a time when I thought you were an astute and thoughtful person. However, since Rudd was forced to step down from the leadership you have gone completely overboard and your bitterness is sickening.

    None of us are privvy to the real reasons why Rudd lost the confidence of his colleagues but you can be sure that those same colleagues would never be so unkind as to splash their grievances across the country in order to kick the man further and end any hope for him to either continue his political life or make another career elsewhere. That is not the sort of stuff we could expect from Labor.

    Why not just get over it like the rest of us and give the Party the benefit of the doubt that had they been able to work with Rudd they would not have ditched him. Rudd knows exactly why he lost the PMship and I, for one, give him credit for his courage in staying with the Party, working hard for the re-election of the government and looking to contribute his extensive talents in the future. You demean his achievements and his character by lashing out with bitterness when you don’t know the whole truth.

    Apologies in advance if you or anyone else feels I should keep my mouth shut.

  11. [Seriously his ‘victory’ speech on Saturday night was sickening.]

    Was too out of it to notice it. Anyone care to summarise the theme of it in 25 words or less?

  12. I think that is buying into the MSM and Labor Right meme.

    I doubt it. I suspect the Labor Right are a major reason why his polls went down in the first place.

  13. Darn

    I saw Bob Katter spray the media. What a sight to behold. About time, the media got a serve. There should be more of where that came from.

    Bob Katter I salute you!

  14. [The more I hear from Katter the more I think he is likely to prefer Labor.]

    So long as Katter is an option extra and not a necessity.

  17. [Apologies in advance if you or anyone else feels I should keep my mouth shut.]

    Never apologise, you are correct. Go Janice. 🙂

  18. Confession,

    in the marginal seat, the exit poll showed the 4 biggest issue on vote are Economy, Education, Health and Border protection

    I would suggest that the poll was overestimating the effect of the Bad economics ad

    Because it was hurting Gillard as well, because it highlighted the wastes in many of the ALP programs

  20. Muskiemp

    I am open to consider any possibility as to the why things happen as they do. There is cause and effect. I look at the cause and the effect. Sometimes it leads to very interesting outcomes.

  22. Honest Bastard
    The Rabbott is my preferred nickname. There is no obligation on you to use it, as there is none for me to use the Mad Monk.
    To each their own & to hell with the thought & spelling police. 🙂

  23. [Stephen Smith – my local member – said we should get Hasluck – and he is the supreme numbers man.]

    And pessimist in elections – if he is calling it its over.

  27. [I hope this close result means Julia is not obliged to make Kevin Rudd a minister for anything. Seriously his ‘victory’ speech on Saturday night was sickening.]

    Sickening – the guy won his seat and he had been shafted by his party. he was more than entitled to have a wry grin on his face given the farcical situation the party found itself in thanks to the great work by Arbib and co.

  29. People should keep in mind that on rare occasions postals appear to be going one way to start with and then go the other. It’s not looking good in Hasluck at the moment but that could change.

  31. [My advice this evening is that Labor expects to hold Corangamite and Hasluck.]

    That’s a pretty big call regarding Hasluck – they must be quite confident about the provisional votes.

  33. TSOP

    Lucky you were out of it and didn’t hear Abbott’s speech. I suspect you may have felt nauseous if you did. It made me physically ill.

  34. There are 2 seats with 600 vote deficit, Hasluck and Congranamite, if either ALP or Liberal win those to seat and get to 74 (ALP with Green) and Liberal with WA Nat

    They win the election

  35. dovif: for years the Liberals held a clear advantage in voters’ perceptions that they rule when it comes to the economy. Tone got it back briefly by ranting about debt and deficit, but has now lost it with his shenanigans in the campaign, esp his outright refusal to even talk about his ‘economic plan’ for Australia, and dodging a debate with Gillard.

    People notice those things. They expect PMs to be able to outline something, but Tone has refused to do even that, delegating it to Robb and Hockey.

  37. Victoria
    [Dee

    Another thing. Guess what, they haven’t found Osama Bin Laden yet.]
    I just got peeved because Paine is looking to tie blame to Gillard. In my opinion Rudd was a marked man with the CPRS. That’s when the real shite began to hit the fan in media circles. The mining tax compounded & united the resolve of the resources sector to get Rudd, with of course the help of a compliant media.
    The point that always gets overlooked is the known opinion of Gillard’s character.
    She had & has been described as being deeply loyal & trustworthy. The flack being thrown around goes completely against the known character of the woman.

  38. There is nothing to get over. I am no Labor man, or Liberal man. I vote for who I think is better at the time.

    The person people of Australia voted to be their PM (and thats what it really was) was set aside by the selfish intents of others and on no acceptable grounds (‘govt losing its way? lol) The real reason being Gillard taking the opportunity to grab the job while polls were at 52/48 and before the started strengthening again.

    The people responsible for treating us with total disrespect were Gillard and co. They all need to be made accountable.

    But it seems Gillard is a protected animal, still has her disciples, despite what she did and also despite showing that her leadership abilities were pretty minimal.

    Gillard in her act probably gave government to the Libs, destroyed two PMs and moved the political centre to the right.

    The amazing thing in this is how people are so reluctant to stick it to Gillard but are quite willing to attack all the others around her. What we get instead is this attempt by many a Gillard acolyte and the Labor Right to blame everybody and anything else except…

    Simple fact of the matter, if you like it or not, if Gillard did not do what she did we would now have a Rudd Labor government into its second term and Labor looking at maybe another 6 years. She has made a total pigs breakfast of everything. This is the nature of personal greed.

  41. Dee

    Sometimes fact is stranger than fiction. There is a lot of power play that goes on behind the scenes. I don’t discount anything at all. Remember as soon as Abbott was made leader, he had a meeting with Murdoch. Wonder what was discussed? Things don’t happen in isolation.

    Power and influence have always been there. We just don’t see it for what it is sometimes.

  42. [I saw Bob Katter spray the media. What a sight to behold. About time, the media got a serve. There should be more of where that came from.

    Bob Katter I salute you!]
    Perhaps we should all email him & say a big thankyou for his guts. About time someone had the gumption to do it.
    I said this morning that we needed someone in the public domain to spray the media.

  44. [I just got peeved because Paine is looking to tie blame to Gillard. ][

    Of course she is to blame. What, she is not responsible for her actions if they happen to be bad?

    I think the Gillard adulation should be set aside for some reality. And we saw her abilities these past two months, they were not very good.

    Gillard exchange victory for a likely defeat, at the very least a trashing of Labor’s position.

    Well done.

  45. Thomas Paine – well argued except you are wrong. A minor point I know but just thought it needed to be said. In order for a logical argument to succeed it must be based on valid and true assertions. Your argument is contestable on both grounds.

  46. [Stephen Smith – my local member – said we should get Hasluck – and he is the supreme numbers man]

    Gweneth – when did he say that?

  48. FWIW I thought the RSPT was good policy. Don’t forget that it was proposed by the industry itself, so it’s curious that the industry says the reform was foisted upon it by the government. Some people have said Rudd handled the issue badly. Perhaps he did, but I don’t remember Howard in 1998 embarking on a full term of far and wide consultation with all concerned when he first mooted the GST, as has been suggested in some quarters wrt Rudd and the RSPT. Furthermore, IIRC the GST proposal came not even 2 years after Howard had flat out ruled it out forever. Or never ever – I forget.

    It would be a shame if national reform to the royalty system were to be lost as a result of the events of this year. I sincerely hope that whatever transpires as a result of this election, the mining tax, or whatever iteration may replace it, remains firmly on the national agenda.

  49. On the vexed question of the better nickname for Mr Tony Abbott MP,
    how about this as a compromise solution:

    “the rabid Monk” ?

  50. TP
    [Simple fact of the matter, if you like it or not, if Gillard did not do what she did we would now have a Rudd Labor government into its second term and Labor looking at maybe another 6 years. She has made a total pigs breakfast of everything. This is the nature of personal greed.]

    Sorry, but if you really do think Rudd would have won you are living in fairy land. Rudd was mortally wounded by a toxic, feral media and the rabbit and his Mining Co mates were all set to finish him off.

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