D-day minus 2

Dennis Atkins of the Courier-Mail on the Queensland situation:

Labor looks like losing three seats in Queensland at the very least – Leichhardt, Flynn, Dawson – and not picking up the Liberal-held but notionally ALP electorates of Herbert and Dickson. Beyond this Forde, Petrie, Longman and Bonner are within reach for the Coalition but still defendable for Labor. The other Queensland marginals – Brisbane, Moreton and Blair – look to be out of reach for the Coalition but this remains an expect-the-unexpected contest. Another unexpected wild card that is troubling some in the Queensland LNP and exciting a few Labor campaigners is the seat of Wright, the newly created electorate which sprawls to the south of Greater Brisbane and is, on paper, a 4.8 per cent Coalition seat. Some local trouble with the Coalition candidate, Scott Buchholz, and his electoral roll status as well as a few issues running Labor’s way has caused a nervous reassessment in conservative circles, although signs of a 3 to 4 per cent anti-government swing in Queensland make it look like a rank outsider.

Nick O’Malley and Erik Jensen of the Sydney Morning Herald note a curious fact:

But what is truly remarkable about western Sydney is the seats of Lindsay, Macarthur and Macquarie do not enjoy the largesse expected in key marginals. They are among the most important seats in NSW, held on margins of between 0.3 and 6.3 per cent, but there is almost no campaign pork barrelling. Labor’s $2 billion for an Epping-to-Parramatta rail link falls short of the region, though it will ease traffic. The best the Liberals have managed is $5 million to upgrade local sports grounds and some money for a bushland corridor. And still the seats are without adequate transport.

Elsewhere:

Bennelong  (NSW, Labor 1.4%): Momentum is building behind the idea that Maxine McKew will not be spared the backlash against Labor in Sydney. A Liberal source quoted by Imre Salusinszky of The Australian said party polling had their candidate John Alexander “well in front, confirming what state Liberal MPs based in northern Sydney have been telling The Australian since the beginning of the campaign”. However, a Labor source is quoted saying their polling has it at 50-50, to which McKew recovered after Alexander was “edging towards a win on first preferences” at the start of the campaign. A 300-sample Morgan poll conducted on Tuesday had Alexander leading 50.5-49.5

Robertson  (NSW, Labor 0.1%): A complaint to police alleging Liberal candidate Darren Jameson had manhandled two boys he believed had thrown eggs at his car has been withdrawn. Jameson is blaming Labor for the leaking of the complaint to the media. Imre Salusinszky argues that if indeed was a Labor plot to besmirch Jameson in the eyes of local voters, it hasn’t worked.

Herbert (Qld, Labor 0.4%): Julia Gillard and Wayne Swan were in Townsville on Tuesday to launch mainland construction of the National Broadband Network. The fortuitous placement of NBN pilot sites and GP super clinics was covered in depth yesterday by Nikola Berkovic and Adam Cresswell of The Australian.

Courtesy of Lukas in comments, here’s a full list of Labor two-party results from the JWS Research/Telereach robopoll. You can see a full set of results for Bass here; for any other electorate, make the obvious change to the URL. The Lindsay page is broken, hence its lack of a figure in the table. Bold denotes a seat tipped to change hands.

ALP WINS ALP 2PP% LNP WINS ALP 2PP%
Franklin 65 Leichhardt 49.9
Bendigo 61 Robertson 49.8
Deakin 61 Corangamite 49.5
Bass 60 Calare 49
Kingston 59 Bennelong 48
Braddon 58 Flynn 48
McEwen 57 Cowan 48
Dunkley 57 McMillan 48
Hindmarsh 56 Swan 48
Brand 56 Sturt 47
Eden-Monaro 54 Stirling 47
Boothby 54 Dawson 46
Cowper 54 Canning 46
Dobell 53 Ryan 46
Page 53 Petrie 44
Gilmore 53 Forde 44
Moreton 52 Hughes 44
Paterson 52 Hinkler 44
Greenway 51 Hasluck 43
La Trobe 51 Grey 42.5
Longman 51 Macarthur 42
Solomon 51 Bonner 41
Herbert 51 Brisbane 41
Macquarie ? Dickson 41
    Fisher 41
    Bowman 40
    Fairfax 40
    Wright 36
Lindsay ?

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,112 comments on “D-day minus 2”

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  1. For anyone despairing at polls from sevral days ago just remember what PvO said about last night’s town hall thingo

    [Julia Gillard managing to pull off a narrow victory in the community forum in Queensland is the political equivalent of a landslide win.]

    Keep the faith.

  3. Helen2
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 5:24 pm | Permalink

    Jenauthor

    “Make sure you keep a copy imacca – we’re gonna get right up them after the election with a dedicated site that analyses this campaign critically.’

    “I mentioned in an earlier post I’d be happy to do whatever I can to help with that project.”

    Wonderful Helen 2
    its MSN Spin Free zone exposed , a la Media Watch , but on Net , constant updated but must be accurate , Houno’s name , date , actual words used etc

    Ladies Jen , Dee , Vera , now Helen2 on bord ….where is guys step up to plate
    All we got is Georgous Dunny blogger from guys

  4. If Abbott loses, I seriously doubt he is going to get another chance. If the Libs have any brains at all they will move back towards the centre a step or two.

    When abbott doesn’t win on saturday, they will keep him for a while. a la hewson – a year or so, while they *try* to sort themselves out. Without minders etc he is likely to stuff up big time within a year.

    Regarding the libs *having any brains at all*

    Don’t count on it. Out of power they are a rabble. Their main tactics are fear and hatred and there will be heaps to go around during another 3 years out of power.

  7. [If Abbott loses, I seriously doubt he is going to get another chance. ]

    The last Liberal leader to lose an election and survive until the next one was Robert Menzies in 1946.

  8. [After a day of following PB and others, I’ll settle down with the TV and the computer, a nice sparkling white wine and something delicious to eat. If the media wins the election I’ll drink a lot of the wine and shout a lot. If Ms Gillard/ALP/Australia wins, I’ll drink slightly less wine and shout a lot. Luckily my two lap-cats will join me, and will probably remain calm whatever I]

    i am helping Julie collins for a couple hours and the booth is the local volunteer fire
    station, its on the top side of the road opposite the derwent river it can be very cold in that spot. Then go out with my oldest daughter to a pub called knopwoods i recently found out it was knopwood house the oldest minister in the colony and my great grandmother’s parents had the first weeding there so going to look at the plaque its now a pub and dont go to pubs on my own so daughter coming to, then home to hide in the bedroom till oh yells you can come out now,

    I was going to ask the music buffs here pleae put up some great music for usbut i still love my special one i found ‘ i was made for you’ not you lot thats the name of the son lol

  9. By the way Boerwar, I think Bluey has my PB Brownlow/Dally M Medal sewn up for best contributions during the campaign. Ghostwohovotes dropped theball when they wrongly attributed that JWS poll to Nielsen!

    Can one put a medal around Bluey’s neck, or would that be fraught with danger?

  10. a result like that would make Saturday night VERY exciting… imagine as the results in QLD come in and the Torries are miles ahead in 10 seats… so they get all excited… until Vic starts reporting and labor start pulling wild swings in places like Dunkley. al trobe, mcEwen, McMillan etc …. NSW holds seats like Paterson and then we start to see that the swing is on in SA and boothby and Sturt go…. much excitement!

  11. Channel 7 Adelaide is leading their news with a story of a candidate who has had to withdraw from candidacy due to having been found to have “an extensive criminal history”.

    Anyone know who?

    I am guessing it must be a Senate candidate otherwise the relevant electorate’s election would be considered having failed – and that would be massive news.

  13. [Regarding the libs *having any brains at all*]

    seems like they have no brains why would you frighten people half to death telling them the PBS will be cut. that is how a lot of people manage to keep their head above water also they are mad as then they would have lots of sick people and a bigger drain on hospitals because people would neglect themselves.
    cut back on medicine my sons tell me it happen now even with pbs. and people get sick because they dont get their prescriptions filled so how would they be if they had to pay top dollar. that to me is just cruel no rises with that mob re pensions and pay more for prescriptions sound very republican American to me.

    so I hope evey one here has done there bit to send this out imagine if 50 people here sent out 20 emails and then they sent out 20 and so on.

  14. Thanks Dr Good, for your info, I now know why I don’t bet? Although when I saw ALP was $1.65 a couple of weeks ago was tempted. So you don’t take any notice of odds?

    The other thing I heard was channel 10 Hugh Remmingon reckons both parties agree ALP have a small lead, BUT of course you never know there could be a BOILOVER

  15. Ind thinking, I think a re-election is only held if a candidate dies before polling day. If a candidate withdraws, his name will still appear on the ballot, and the election is still valid.

  17. btw a not so bold prediction but in terms of the swing in QLD it is going to be all ovr the place.. you can expect a massive double diggit swing in Flynne, Dawson and possibly Leichardt… but Mooney will win Herbert…. and then the south east corner will be it’s own little weird swinging world… I can see Bonner going but holding Longman for example…. and then of course you have the present liberal seats which will swing hard for them…. qld will be strange even if there is a headline swing

  19. Mikeisright,

    Mate if the libs lose dunkley and mcmillan it will spell the deathknell of the liberals, and then hell would freeze over earth, ALP NO chance to win any seats other than McEwen and Latrobe. There will be no ALP gains anywhere outside of Victoria and when Abbott is PM on Saturday night u all will be wondering what the hell happened

  20. As to Morgan’s F2F, maybe this time he deliberately arranged it to give what HE thinks should be the right result. In the last few elections, Morgan’s F2F has wildly over-estimated Labor’s vote, so this time it ensures there won’t be as much embarrassment for Morgan’s F2F.

  22. [Labor (51%, down 6.5%) just ahead of Coalition (49%, up 6.5%)
    Federal Election set to hinge on last week of Campaign
    As released on 7News at 6pm tonight ]

    Why does Roy Morgan compare phone polls with face to face polls? It just makes his whole polling organisation look dumb.

  28. An important mental exercise during this TV/radio advertising blackout, is to try to get inside the head of the average uninterested punter. Why is the residual impression left after all the sound and fury as they get to watch their favourite show politics-free?

    I would submit:

    Julia Gillard – Calm under pressure, consistent, forthright, likeable, good sense of humour, still struggling a bit with the Kevin Rudd factor though it has largely subsided,
    on top of her brief especially on the economy, jobs, health and education

    Tony Abbott – A bit of a larrikan but not the loose cannon he was expected to be, forthright, somewhat self-depracating, often surrounded by wife and kids, unrelenting in drawing attention to pink batts, BER and boat people, not on top of his brief in some key policy areas such as NBN and costings

  31. [Labor (51%, down 6.5%) just ahead of Coalition (49%, up 6.5%)
    Federal Election set to hinge on last week of Campaign
    As released on 7News at 6pm tonight

    Why does Roy Morgan compare phone polls with face to face polls? It just makes his whole polling organisation look dumb.
    ]

    Yeah, he goes into a spiel about the ALP votes ‘peaking’ with the 57.5% F2F.

    When you compare this with the last phone poll, the ALP is up 1% (2PP), so status quo.

  32. Let me repeat my call from earlier in the day.

    This is a close election.

    The Coalition, led by climate change deniers, will
    (on the basis of these recent polls)
    just win many of the following seats, and it will be preferences
    from Green voters which get the Liberals over the line.

    Moreton, Paterson, Greenway, Longman, Solomon,
    Cowper, Boothby, Dunkley, Lindsay,
    Herbert, La Trobe, Gilmore, Macquarie, Leichhardt, Robertson, Corangamite,
    Calare, Ryan, Bennelong, Flynn, Swan, Cowan, Aston,
    Hasluck, Sturt and Stirling.

    The ALP need to win 8 of those to hold on to government.
    Otherwise the international CC sceptics get a great
    boost (and as well we start to lose some of our
    great marine parks).

    The Green to Liberal prefs could be worth 2-3% of the total vote.
    Many of those seats will end up being decided by less
    than that.

    Greens please get out there and help your new and old
    voters make the right decision.

  35. No I don’t William. The tables on the smh site also mention Wentworth suffering the same problem so it was assigned to the LNP

  36. [1057 Psephos
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 5:39 pm | Permalink
    If Abbott loses, I seriously doubt he is going to get another chance.

    The last Liberal leader to lose an election and survive until the next one was Robert Menzies in 1946.]

    Psephos, when one comes back on to the site and sees things that dont look right do i assume that
    is 1069 liberal

  37. [Why does Roy Morgan compare phone polls with face to face polls? It just makes his whole polling organisation look dumb.]

    1. Face to Face
    2. Phone
    3. Face to Face
    4. Phone

    He compares phone poll 4 with the face to face 1 and then the latest face to face 3 with the previous phone poll 2. Has the guy lost his marbles?

  39. Heard Lydal Curtis saying that nationally the ALP look likely to win but when you drill down the numbers in the marginals it tells a different story. Between this comment and JJFiasson’s comment about being toast if Morgans F2F run to form I am getting very worried.

  40. Dr Good

    [Greens please get out there and help your new and old voters make the right decision.]

    Is Labor going to put a price on carbon?

  42. Aaron

    On the predictions thread, I have McMillan as a seat to watch, in 2007 it only had a very small swing of about 0.2% (it could have been to Libs – not sure). If La Trobe moves big time (not even sure if it will go to ALP) , McMillan may go to. Very, very outside chance (not in my predictions list) but could be close.

  43. If only Mike Quigley had made this speech two weeks ago.

    [So, I plan to use this speech to outline:

    1. why it’s better to invest $27 billion rather than spend $6 billion
    2. creating a monopoly helps competition
    3. why a ubiquitous broadband network isn’t just equitable, it’s essential for the delivery of social, economic and productivity benefits
    4. why wireless can’t, on its own, serve all our long term broadband needs but a combination of wireless and fibre can.

    http://webdiary.com.au/cms/?q=node/3105

  45. [Between this comment and JJFiasson’s comment about being toast if Morgans F2F run to form I am getting very worried.]

    Thats a big if. Those Morgan numbers look daft.

  46. Dee, the Morgan F2F was taken at the same time as the Newspoll. The Newspoll should be taken as more reliable. Calm down and wait for further news.

  48. [661
    Apeman
    When TA became leader last year lots of people on this site were crowing about a record liberal loss (and I thought so too). The fact they have gotten this close will embolden the hard right of the party, and I would be surprised if they changed tack any time soon.]

    Well, the opposition has been saying this is the most incompetent & dangerous government since WWII (or wtte). So if they lose to them, what does that say about the opposition, and its appeal to the mainstream?

    I think this is the hard right’s one chance, if they blow it I don’t see them getting too many more for a while. They are too far out from the mainstream.

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