D-day minus 2

Dennis Atkins of the Courier-Mail on the Queensland situation:

Labor looks like losing three seats in Queensland at the very least – Leichhardt, Flynn, Dawson – and not picking up the Liberal-held but notionally ALP electorates of Herbert and Dickson. Beyond this Forde, Petrie, Longman and Bonner are within reach for the Coalition but still defendable for Labor. The other Queensland marginals – Brisbane, Moreton and Blair – look to be out of reach for the Coalition but this remains an expect-the-unexpected contest. Another unexpected wild card that is troubling some in the Queensland LNP and exciting a few Labor campaigners is the seat of Wright, the newly created electorate which sprawls to the south of Greater Brisbane and is, on paper, a 4.8 per cent Coalition seat. Some local trouble with the Coalition candidate, Scott Buchholz, and his electoral roll status as well as a few issues running Labor’s way has caused a nervous reassessment in conservative circles, although signs of a 3 to 4 per cent anti-government swing in Queensland make it look like a rank outsider.

Nick O’Malley and Erik Jensen of the Sydney Morning Herald note a curious fact:

But what is truly remarkable about western Sydney is the seats of Lindsay, Macarthur and Macquarie do not enjoy the largesse expected in key marginals. They are among the most important seats in NSW, held on margins of between 0.3 and 6.3 per cent, but there is almost no campaign pork barrelling. Labor’s $2 billion for an Epping-to-Parramatta rail link falls short of the region, though it will ease traffic. The best the Liberals have managed is $5 million to upgrade local sports grounds and some money for a bushland corridor. And still the seats are without adequate transport.

Elsewhere:

Bennelong  (NSW, Labor 1.4%): Momentum is building behind the idea that Maxine McKew will not be spared the backlash against Labor in Sydney. A Liberal source quoted by Imre Salusinszky of The Australian said party polling had their candidate John Alexander “well in front, confirming what state Liberal MPs based in northern Sydney have been telling The Australian since the beginning of the campaign”. However, a Labor source is quoted saying their polling has it at 50-50, to which McKew recovered after Alexander was “edging towards a win on first preferences” at the start of the campaign. A 300-sample Morgan poll conducted on Tuesday had Alexander leading 50.5-49.5

Robertson  (NSW, Labor 0.1%): A complaint to police alleging Liberal candidate Darren Jameson had manhandled two boys he believed had thrown eggs at his car has been withdrawn. Jameson is blaming Labor for the leaking of the complaint to the media. Imre Salusinszky argues that if indeed was a Labor plot to besmirch Jameson in the eyes of local voters, it hasn’t worked.

Herbert (Qld, Labor 0.4%): Julia Gillard and Wayne Swan were in Townsville on Tuesday to launch mainland construction of the National Broadband Network. The fortuitous placement of NBN pilot sites and GP super clinics was covered in depth yesterday by Nikola Berkovic and Adam Cresswell of The Australian.

Courtesy of Lukas in comments, here’s a full list of Labor two-party results from the JWS Research/Telereach robopoll. You can see a full set of results for Bass here; for any other electorate, make the obvious change to the URL. The Lindsay page is broken, hence its lack of a figure in the table. Bold denotes a seat tipped to change hands.

ALP WINS ALP 2PP% LNP WINS ALP 2PP%
Franklin 65 Leichhardt 49.9
Bendigo 61 Robertson 49.8
Deakin 61 Corangamite 49.5
Bass 60 Calare 49
Kingston 59 Bennelong 48
Braddon 58 Flynn 48
McEwen 57 Cowan 48
Dunkley 57 McMillan 48
Hindmarsh 56 Swan 48
Brand 56 Sturt 47
Eden-Monaro 54 Stirling 47
Boothby 54 Dawson 46
Cowper 54 Canning 46
Dobell 53 Ryan 46
Page 53 Petrie 44
Gilmore 53 Forde 44
Moreton 52 Hughes 44
Paterson 52 Hinkler 44
Greenway 51 Hasluck 43
La Trobe 51 Grey 42.5
Longman 51 Macarthur 42
Solomon 51 Bonner 41
Herbert 51 Brisbane 41
Macquarie ? Dickson 41
    Fisher 41
    Bowman 40
    Fairfax 40
    Wright 36
Lindsay ?

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,112 comments on “D-day minus 2”

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  2. I don’t think I’ve seen this here yet, but there’s a crazy Morgan out which has the ALP 52-48 up nationally, with 54-46 in NSW. News Radio are reporting it.

    I’m pretty sure I have those figures right.

  5. Today he said that if he won he would be the hardest working prime ministerial candidate in history. It’s a big claim.
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/commentary/sleepless-nights-a-risk-for-abbott/story-e6frgd0x-1225907201955

    There’s a hellava difference between types of work, and what distinguishes “effective/ productive work” from “busy work”.

    bus·y·work or busywork is defined as:
    Activity, such as schoolwork or office work, meant to take up time but not necessarily yield productive results.

    active work of little value; “while he was waiting he filled the days with busywork”
    http://www.thefreedictionary.com/busywork

    Work is not necessarily a physical activity. In many jobs and circumstances it involves the mind in ways which may be hindered by excessive physical labour.

    A Prime Minister’s job requires a significant commitment to policy formation and propagation, negotiation, a variety of public commitments, PR activities etc; but it also requires a great deal of reading, thought, contemplation, arguing different approaches, views etc with one’s self, reflection; ie mind work. All of our great PMs & Oppo leaders – indeed, most of our good politicians of both houses – have placed high priority on such mind work (as those who’ve read their auto/biographies know): John Curtin’s dedication to the PM’s role, esp its mind work, effectively killed him not long before VP day. Deakin and Menzies were also great “thinkers”, to which their auto/biographies and terms in office testify.

    Over-indulgence in busy work (a chronic problem in bureaucracies, where “rules”, “paper work” & “red tape” can detract from the time and energy dedicated to the jobs people are hired to do) often leads to goal displacement a term coined by Robert Merton

    Merton … observed that this occurred when formalistic goals become more important than the main substantive goal

    Goal displacement is also defined as:

    The process by which the means used to achieve a goal become more important than the goal itself. For example, runners who perform time trials in preparation for a competition may expend more energy on the trial than the actual competition.
    http://www.answers.com/topic/goal-displacement

    IMO, Abbott is a busy worker; moreover, much of the “work” – competitive physical exercise unrelated (except as a photo op) to his job as an Opposition Leader – is self-indulgent busy work in that it not only removes him from his primary job (all those mental & physical activities we expect of an alternative PM), but involves short & long-term “recovery periods” which further detract from his job’s work commitments.

    That Abbott, as the alternative PM, has, in eight months, produced very little of the policy development we expect of of the incumbent of that office – far less work than he has put into his sporting activities – indicates how little emphasis he gives to the role’s requirements. Since there has been little policy development, costing of these policies’ enaction has been delayed, sketchy, and not done by Treasury, or the top 4 Oz accounting firms (which, reportedly, rejected the job). Lack of positive policies has led to a relentlessly negative campaign, ducking & weaving, very careless with the truth, interspersed with ad hominem attacks on his opponents, comments which can only be described as snide, “smart a^sed” and unbecoming in one who aspires to lead the nation. And this is despite “the worm” in at least two debates, indicating that the public do not approve of it. Now he’s proposing to stay awake electioneering 24/7 for the rest of the campaign (inc election day).

    IMO, Abbott exhibits the most serious case of goal displacement ever shown by an Oz PM or aspiring PM.

  8. [Even if Tone brings down the locusts through prayer it won’t stop me from handing out HTVs]

    Oh of course not. I’d stand out in a blizzard if it helped get Julia reelected.

    Just nice to know I won’t be freezing to death.

  9. yep Aguirre I heard it too on radio. Some unbelievably wild figures:

    57% Coalition in QA and 56% in Qld but 54% Labor in NSW and 55% and 57.5% in Vic and SA.

  11. ru

    [I think Joe is having a bad day. 😉 ]

    I think everyday has been a bad day for Joe since he screwed up his leadership challenge.

  12. Thanks Dubbs – you gladden my heart about Baldwin but the problem is that he kowtows to the oldies really well. Must have been taking lessons from Bronnie Bishop

  13. Jenauthor

    [Make sure you keep a copy imacca – we’re gonna get right up them after the election with a dedicated site that analyses this campaign critically.

    The papers and media generally have been treating Aussies like fools — but we’ll get our own back.]

    I mentioned in an earlier post I’d be happy to do whatever I can to help with that project. I’m in an inner suburb of Brisbane, just out of earshot of the Broncos Club.

  14. [In the latest Face-to-Face Morgan Poll conducted last weekend (August 14/15, 2010) ALP support was 52% (1% higher than the telephone Morgan Poll conducted only on Saturday August 14, 2010) ahead of the L-NP (48%, 1% lower than the telephone Morgan Poll). The closeness in key Marginal seats around Australia, as polled by Roy Morgan in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia means either major party could still win Saturday’s Federal election.

    This Face-to-Face Morgan Poll finds the ALP primary vote is 40% (down 3.4% since the 2007 Federal election), behind the L-NP 43% (up 0.9%), while the Greens are 13.5% (up 5.7%), Family First 1.5% (down 0.5%) and Independents/ Others 2% (down 2.7%).

    Analysis by State

    Analysis by State reveals the L-NP leads clearly in Queensland (56.5% cf. 43.5%) and Western Australia (58% cf. 42%).However the ALP has regained the lead in New South Wales (54% cf. L-NP 46%), and continues to lead strongly in Victoria (55% cf. 45%) and South Australia (57.5% cf. 42.5%).]

  15. [In the latest Face-to-Face Morgan Poll conducted last weekend (August 14/15, 2010) ALP support was 52% (1% higher than the telephone Morgan Poll conducted only on Saturday August 14, 2010) ahead of the L-NP (48%, 1% lower than the telephone Morgan Poll). The closeness in key Marginal seats around Australia, as polled by Roy Morgan in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia means either major party could still win Saturday’s Federal election.

    This Face-to-Face Morgan Poll finds the ALP primary vote is 40% (down 3.4% since the 2007 Federal election), behind the L-NP 43% (up 0.9%), while the Greens are 13.5% (up 5.7%), Family First 1.5% (down 0.5%) and Independents/ Others 2% (down 2.7%).

    Analysis by Gender

    Analysis by gender reveals that the ‘gender gap’ is still working in Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s favour with women favouring the ALP (54%) cf. L-NP (46%) while men are evenly split – ALP (50%) cf. L-NP (50%).

    Analysis by State

    Analysis by State reveals the L-NP leads clearly in Queensland (56.5% cf. 43.5%) and Western Australia (58% cf. 42%).However the ALP has regained the lead in New South Wales (54% cf. L-NP 46%), and continues to lead strongly in Victoria (55% cf. 45%) and South Australia (57.5% cf. 42.5%).]

    Bizarro World.

  17. According to the website it’s a F2F. If that’s the case, we’re toast. The last F2F was 57.5, and Morgan is widely recognised as overestimating the Labor vote by 2-4%.

  18. [rua

    Bluey never forgives and never forgets.]

    I had a weird dream the other night that a blue ringed octopus was in my bed and it crawled on me and I tried not to move but I did and it bit me. Bluey hasn’t been infiltrating my dream world lately, has he?

  20. [That she isn’t an idiot trying to placard the news slots with mindless and pointless slogans]

    actually juliia mentioned something at the press club about the 24 cycle and not feeling in to it wtte i thought great

  22. I’ll be up early on Saturday as my son’s school is a polling booth and I have volunteered to be there at 7am helping out setting up the sausage sizzle for the fundraiser.

  24. [According to the website it’s a F2F. If that’s the case, we’re toast.]

    Rubbish.

    It just means it’s unreliable.

  27. It seems too quiet. A sense of foreboding as though some big news is going to burst onto the scene any moment. Maybe it’s the lack of political ads. Time is slowing down and fading away.

  28. [yep Aguirre I heard it too on radio. Some unbelievably wild figures:

    57% Coalition in QA and 56% in Qld but 54% Labor in NSW and 55% and 57.5% in Vic and SA.]

    That’s too wild.

  29. Diogenes would know about sleep deprivation from years of study and training. No, it is not good, and it is thought to have contributed to various disasters like Three Mile Island, Space Shuttle Challenger, Bhopal Gas Leak, Chernobyl and on a more local level many car accidents.

    Though as Tony has been “asleep at the wheel” for so many important issues, maybe he has some sleep up his sleeve?

  32. [It seems too quiet. A sense of foreboding as though some big news is going to burst onto the scene any moment. Maybe it’s the lack of political ads. Time is slowing down and fading away.]

    It’s just 11th hour anxiety. Don’t worry. We just need to keep our heads together.

  34. [597
    To Speak of Pebbles
    If he (Abbott) wants a shot in 2013,]

    If Abbott loses, I seriously doubt he is going to get another chance. If the Libs have any brains at all they will move back towards the centre a step or two.

  36. [ what is pox ]

    as in small pox or chicken pox, sometimes refers to the clap, though strictly speaking that is not really a pustule type pox..just saying.

  40. Thanks Itep re Bennelong and 2007.(Post 963) Fingers crossed
    Also your post 937 on the the bookies, surprised at the way ALP is so short nationally compared to individual seats- I was trying to understand that, surely the bookies would be happy ALP punters are betting if they thought ALP was going to lose? Perhaps you or someone else can explain the bookies logic?

  42. [The only way to bring proper reform to Australias system is to adopt a House of Lords type system in the Senate, with appointed and hereditary piers.]

    The thought of generations of Ackermans in the Senate is too horrible to contemplate.

  43. BigBob
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 5:26 pm | Permalink

    “The state breakdowns look ridiculous!”

    yes agree and by long ways , and therefore making whole Poll belong to th dustbin

  44. [What are everyone’s election night plans??]

    After a day of following PB and others, I’ll settle down with the TV and the computer, a nice sparkling white wine and something delicious to eat. If the media wins the election I’ll drink a lot of the wine and shout a lot. If Ms Gillard/ALP/Australia wins, I’ll drink slightly less wine and shout a lot. Luckily my two lap-cats will join me, and will probably remain calm whatever I do.

  46. [ If he (Abbott) wants a shot in 2013 ]

    I’m so sleep deprived form PBing I read that as “If he (Abbott) wants to be shot in 2013”
    and thought…why wait? Be glad when this thing is all over 🙂

  48. Rocket

    I don’t think Challenger was really related to sleep deprivation but the others partly were. It’s well recognised that sleep deprivation leads to a higher mortality rate when the sleepy surgeon is operating, which is why we don’t operate late at night as often now.

    Abbott is so all over the place that it would be hard to tell the difference frankly. He’ll get away with it tomorrow but he’ll need a good break on Saturday.

  49. [It’s a face to face taken over the same time as the Newspoll. The Newspoll is more reliable.]

    Take away the state breakdowns and it’s the same number. Shouldn’t we expect this at this stage of the campaign – that the numbers converge?

  50. [luck with Dalgety.
    990 Helen2
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 5:15 pm | Permalink
    My Say, 784, 799

    You are an inspiration and a legend! Look forward to hearing what Nicola Roxon’s office says. I’ve emailed friends about this PBS thing, but I’m not on FaceBook or Twitter. ]

    thank you, we just have to look after each other, i was cheeky and sent it to a liberal i know they are very elderly and just said well you know Abbott s not Frazer
    i think of older liberals think the liberal party are what it was in Menzies days or perhaps Frazer. They live in Melbourne and me in Hobart.

    I dont have face book either but managed to have it put on a friends site.

    so you found the link thats good

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