D-day minus 2

Dennis Atkins of the Courier-Mail on the Queensland situation:

Labor looks like losing three seats in Queensland at the very least – Leichhardt, Flynn, Dawson – and not picking up the Liberal-held but notionally ALP electorates of Herbert and Dickson. Beyond this Forde, Petrie, Longman and Bonner are within reach for the Coalition but still defendable for Labor. The other Queensland marginals – Brisbane, Moreton and Blair – look to be out of reach for the Coalition but this remains an expect-the-unexpected contest. Another unexpected wild card that is troubling some in the Queensland LNP and exciting a few Labor campaigners is the seat of Wright, the newly created electorate which sprawls to the south of Greater Brisbane and is, on paper, a 4.8 per cent Coalition seat. Some local trouble with the Coalition candidate, Scott Buchholz, and his electoral roll status as well as a few issues running Labor’s way has caused a nervous reassessment in conservative circles, although signs of a 3 to 4 per cent anti-government swing in Queensland make it look like a rank outsider.

Nick O’Malley and Erik Jensen of the Sydney Morning Herald note a curious fact:

But what is truly remarkable about western Sydney is the seats of Lindsay, Macarthur and Macquarie do not enjoy the largesse expected in key marginals. They are among the most important seats in NSW, held on margins of between 0.3 and 6.3 per cent, but there is almost no campaign pork barrelling. Labor’s $2 billion for an Epping-to-Parramatta rail link falls short of the region, though it will ease traffic. The best the Liberals have managed is $5 million to upgrade local sports grounds and some money for a bushland corridor. And still the seats are without adequate transport.

Elsewhere:

Bennelong  (NSW, Labor 1.4%): Momentum is building behind the idea that Maxine McKew will not be spared the backlash against Labor in Sydney. A Liberal source quoted by Imre Salusinszky of The Australian said party polling had their candidate John Alexander “well in front, confirming what state Liberal MPs based in northern Sydney have been telling The Australian since the beginning of the campaign”. However, a Labor source is quoted saying their polling has it at 50-50, to which McKew recovered after Alexander was “edging towards a win on first preferences” at the start of the campaign. A 300-sample Morgan poll conducted on Tuesday had Alexander leading 50.5-49.5

Robertson  (NSW, Labor 0.1%): A complaint to police alleging Liberal candidate Darren Jameson had manhandled two boys he believed had thrown eggs at his car has been withdrawn. Jameson is blaming Labor for the leaking of the complaint to the media. Imre Salusinszky argues that if indeed was a Labor plot to besmirch Jameson in the eyes of local voters, it hasn’t worked.

Herbert (Qld, Labor 0.4%): Julia Gillard and Wayne Swan were in Townsville on Tuesday to launch mainland construction of the National Broadband Network. The fortuitous placement of NBN pilot sites and GP super clinics was covered in depth yesterday by Nikola Berkovic and Adam Cresswell of The Australian.

Courtesy of Lukas in comments, here’s a full list of Labor two-party results from the JWS Research/Telereach robopoll. You can see a full set of results for Bass here; for any other electorate, make the obvious change to the URL. The Lindsay page is broken, hence its lack of a figure in the table. Bold denotes a seat tipped to change hands.

ALP WINS ALP 2PP% LNP WINS ALP 2PP%
Franklin 65 Leichhardt 49.9
Bendigo 61 Robertson 49.8
Deakin 61 Corangamite 49.5
Bass 60 Calare 49
Kingston 59 Bennelong 48
Braddon 58 Flynn 48
McEwen 57 Cowan 48
Dunkley 57 McMillan 48
Hindmarsh 56 Swan 48
Brand 56 Sturt 47
Eden-Monaro 54 Stirling 47
Boothby 54 Dawson 46
Cowper 54 Canning 46
Dobell 53 Ryan 46
Page 53 Petrie 44
Gilmore 53 Forde 44
Moreton 52 Hughes 44
Paterson 52 Hinkler 44
Greenway 51 Hasluck 43
La Trobe 51 Grey 42.5
Longman 51 Macarthur 42
Solomon 51 Bonner 41
Herbert 51 Brisbane 41
Macquarie ? Dickson 41
    Fisher 41
    Bowman 40
    Fairfax 40
    Wright 36
Lindsay ?

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,112 comments on “D-day minus 2”

Comments Page 2 of 23
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  1. Hopefully for Labor, their losses in Western Sydney are confined to Macquarie and Lindsay!
    Sadly too many people out there think boat people are solely to blame for all their problems.

  2. From the OO:
    Last night, former Finance Department deputy secretary Stephen Bartos said the $2.5bn taken from the budget’s contingency reserve by the Coalition was not a legitimate saving: “The contingency reserve is not a fund of money; it is just an estimation of the likely trend of spending.”

    The contingency reserve is in place to allow for the fact programs such as the five-year health funding agreements with the states will be renewed when they expire. Mr Bartos said the Coalition’s savings assumed the government would chop off programs rather than renew them. “No government in history has ever done that,” he said.

    Labor pointed to comments in then treasurer Peter Costello’s 2003 budget that this allowance in the budget was designed to make the forward estimates more reliable. “It is not a policy reserve or ‘rainy day’ fund,” the budget note said

    There is no greater indictment on our MSM that this will be a “minor” story.

  3. [I actually cant keep up with how wrong the Lib costings are: $8b in veterans indexation, $600m NBN (havent fixed this despite the “leak”), another $1b Swan announced yesterday and the $2,5b referred to in the OO. I’m getting over $12b. Have Labor or the MSM got a figure?]

    Andrew, I think they’re working on the Kennett system (he had so much slash and burn on just about every other day that the predictable outrage had barely time to focus before another attack). This effort contains so many blowouts and errors that a constant attempt to expose them might even lead to confusion, which is probably what the liberals are hoping for.

    However, drawing attention to the $1.2 Billion slash in PBS might cause a bit of fuss and damage control. Very luck, or timely, that they’re into the blackout period.

  5. If it wasn’t for Antony Green, I’d be boycotting “Their ABC’s” Election Night coverage, in protest at their blatant bias towards the Liberals.
    It’d almost serve the ABC right if Abbott got in, and then he slashed their funding by billions of dollars. 😀

  6. GD, youre right, there is so much to critcise and so little time. I think a “headline” total figure is the go. Gus had a go last night looking at the likely result- bigger deficit next budget and deficit not surplus for 2013.

    The headline figure and the $1b PBS cut is all they have time for, but could swing some undecideds. It is incredible after their cuts shambles a few months ago that the opposition could not come up with a credible alternative budget that Treasury could sign off on. the only explanation is that they simply could not arrive at their required outcome through legitimate means

  7. [
    Can some one explain the PBS re libs please cut of have family in pharmacies who would tell the pensioners
    ]

    Yes is this a genuine cut or just some shonky accounting in their costings?

  8. mysay, cut of $1b to the PBS. After Abbott previous record of cutting $1b from health, this is lunacy, but has not been picked up by Labor or the media. Was hoping Gillard would mention it last night

  9. Gorgeous Dunny@53

    However, drawing attention to the $1.2 Billion slash in PBS might cause a bit of fuss and damage control. Very luck, or timely, that they’re into the blackout period.

    And remember, this is a workable tactic only because they have a compliant MSM.

  10. Musrum. howard was hammered as OL in a campaign for a costing error much much less than what Abbott has come up with. So its not just the usual pro-coalition bias, it is something quite extraordinary

  12. Gillard and Abbott not campaigning today. Surely Swan will give a presser. He needs to keep it simple. I think he is quite competant but not a very good salesman. He doesnt cut through IMO

  13. Virginia Trioli is quite revolting. After talking about Abbott, saying he preferred Tasmanian beer and jokingly hoped that that might influence voters in Bass and Braddon, she smirked that he shouldn’t bother because Labor has the beer vote sewn up.

    And here I was thinking that Labor voters were all Chardonnay-sipping-bleeding-heart-latte-drinking-pinko-commie-lefties.

  14. Andrew@60

    Musrum. howard was hammered as OL in a campaign for a costing error much much less than what Abbott has come up with. So its not just the usual pro-coalition bias, it is something quite extraordinary

    That was then. This is now. 🙁

  18. [And here I was thinking that Labor voters were all Chardonnay-sipping-bleeding-heart-latte-drinking-pinko-commie-lefties.]

    No, thats just a tired cliche.

  20. [Isn’t the PBS cut listed as an ‘interest saving’? I don’t know what this means.]

    Neither do Robb or Hockey. It just makes their graphs look kosher.

  23. And here I was thinking that Labor voters were all Chardonnay-sipping-bleeding-heart-latte-drinking-pinko-commie-lefties.

    chardonnay sipping is very liberal i hadn’t seen this till i started to get older and go to fund raisers for different schools i would occasion get invited to.

  24. my say – they are still allowed to campaign and the media can still report on the campaign; the only thing the blackout affects is radio and tv advertising.

  25. ruawake – my theory is that they have spruiked ‘X’ amount in savings to offset their outrageous spending spree, so their documents have to match the rhetoric.

    This is not the only number in savings that shouldn’t be there.

  27. No, thats just a tired cliche.

    Yes. But I’d also say that the Libs have been fiercely chasing the “bogan” vote for years, so I’d hardly think Trioli’s comment about the beer voters preferring Labor is in any way relevant either. In Trioli’s world only classy wine-bar goers like the Libs. Apparently she hasn’t visited Alan Jones’ western Sydney.

    And yes, all these are cliches. Much like Trioli.

  28. [if you ring the abc they say put it writing, dont waste your time
    just ring a senator after the election.]

    Speaking of Senators who are interested in the goings on of the ABC, I will be taking great pleasure in placing a number 84 next the name of Senator Concietta Fierravanti-Wells.

  29. [they are still allowed to campaign and the media can still report on the campaign; the only thing the blackout affects is radio and tv advertising.]

    Does that mean they have to take ABC24 off-air? 😛

  30. ABC radio in Melbourne with Jon Faine at present has Joe Hockey, Nicola Roxon and Bob Brown discussiing policy etc. Nicola is making a good fist of it so far.

  32. Given that Sloppy has claimed the $2.5b contingency money in his surplus surely Labor can normalise the comparison by adding another 2.5 bill to its own.

  33. Bob Hawke has just finished speaking on ABC Radio. He basically said the same thing as at the launch that Nobel Prize winning economist has said that the Australian Govt stimulus was the best and you can’t beat that. He directed that comment to Joe Hockey. Gold!!

  34. [
    Sunny Coast Daily anti-Slipper campaign continues
    ]

    What the hell did Slipper do the th Sunshine Coast Daily? Did all this start when he was pictured asleep in Parliament? Either way I’ve been enjoying the on going campaign by the SCD

  35. From the previous thread…

    What I said:

    Barbeque Bill

    “That this government today is yet to convince a VERY LARGE proportion of the population that their Stimulus package was for the good of the nation, and not just a waste and debt binge, is a testament to how badly the Labor Geniuses who run campaigns and politics inside the party have fared.”

    How Ron criticised it:

    over 50% 2PPT will vote Labor on 21/8 , so obvous punters beleive Labor , if they beleived your words ie Abbotts words quote “a waste and debt binge” then Liberals would hav bolted in

    Ron actually makes my point, rather than rebutting it.

    Every expert economist, from here and overseas, including the Nobel Prize winning Stiglitz swears blind that the Stimulus worked. I cited Grog’s column that in turn cited Gruen saying that the extra tax collected (just because people were in jobs) was enough to override any “waste” and put us billions better off than we would have been had those people lost their jobs.

    Yet the figures quoted by Essential the other day were that 42% thought the Stimulus was a disaster, with only something in the 30% range thinking it worked.

    To say it hasn’t been sold well is an understatement. It’s a national disgrace that the government has been incapable of making it clear to people – in a completely rational, concise way – that the Stimulus worked. They may not agree with the idea of Stimulus, or the targeting, but for so many to believe that it actually failed is tragic. The poor punters have been spun so long they take up the comfortable assumption that it’s all spin, even the truth part of it.

    The Libs, on the other hand are generally regarded as economic geniuses, congenitally better suited to running the economy. The figures have come back a little Labor’s way lately, after two weeks of saturation advertising (an abnormal situation), but mostly they’re streets ahead on “Better To Manage The Economy”.

    Joe Hockey has spouted that the Coalition costings are, not only NOT a bit wobbly, but are probably the greatest, most scientifically audited, most comprehensively examined set of figures in the history of Australian government. Now THERE’S confidence for you. That’s how you get to be preferred Economic Managers: keep telling people that you’re so good at the Economy that the professional economists, the Treasury, Finance and even Microsoft Excel are all wrong, possibly even corrupt, if their figures don’t agree with yours, and must bow to your greater skills and talent.

    If you say this often enough, the people will follow.

    Labor uhms, ahhs, dodges questions and won’t even use certain words like “billion”, “debt” and “waste”. The Libs read this like a book. They’ve been doing it for decades: Labor is scared of its own shadow.

    Chutzpah mightn’t work every time. Sometimes the Coalition over-egg it. But, as a rule of thumb, bragging about how fantastic you are (bonus points when it’s true) wins over focus group driven hesitation and chronic lack of self-confidence.

  36. [Speaking of Senators who are interested in the goings on of the ABC, I will be taking great pleasure in placing a number 84 next the name of Senator Concietta Fierravanti-Wells.]

    I will also take extreme pleasure in placing a number 42 next to Bob Day…..:D

  37. Nicola Roxon is terrific – an excellent performer. Health is a very good fit for her.

    I must admit to a secret longing, however, that Tanya Plibersek gets education if the ALP is returned.

  39. 77 – Maybe the fact the ALP considers so many people who live in the Western suburbs “bogans” is what’s alienated them from the party. That line is franky as patronising as anything trotted out by the right wing commentators who love their sweeping generalisations about those who vote Labor and/ or Greens.

    I’d have hoped we’re better than that. In 07 when western Sydney swung towards Labor, there wasn’t much hue and cry about bogans then. They were “battler” who had come home to the fold.

    It’s pretty offensive, frankly.

  44. [612 ABC Brisbane’s Madonna King is broadcasting from Morayfield Shopping Centre north of Brisbane for the next couple of hours. Her guests include Nationals Senator Barnaby Joyce, Greens Senate aspirant Larissa Waters and the Liberal’s young-gun candidate for Longman, Wyatt Roy.]

    Something missing here.

  46. Just read that Shamaham blog and it looks like all Bolts acolytes have migrated since he called the election for Labor..

  47. Burgey, good post at 89.

    not sure if this article has been mentioned:
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/why-labor-is-losing-the-west-20100818-12f8f.html

    Labor need to decide what its true values are in some areas. Boaties is one of them. But trying to reach out to certain ‘disaffected’ working people is just leaving them exposed to the Greens on the left flank.

    Labor need need to decide if they are willing to represent the ‘bogan’, and if they are going to stick by them and respect them. If so they can’t bag them when they turn off Labor.

  48. [ABC radio in Melbourne with Jon Faine at present has Joe Hockey, Nicola Roxon and Bob Brown discussiing policy etc. Nicola is making a good fist of it so far.]

    Victoria, did you hear Hockey’s lame “I don’t see people walking around with Fibre hanging out of their handbag” comment? Just amazing that these guys are getting away with this kind or rubbish. At least Roxon picked him up on it.

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