Nielsen JWS Research marginals mega-poll (and Galaxy and Morgan)

The super-sample poll published by Fairfax, covering 22,000 voters in 54 seats (about 400 each), turns out to have been conducted not by Nielsen, but an outfit called JWS Research whose automated phone polling on the weekend were widely noted at the time. The Sydney Morning Herald sells its managing director John Scales as “a renowned pollster” who was director of Morgan from 1992 to 1995, and research director at Crosby Textor from 2002 until earlier this year. However, its methodology is untried, at least in the Australian context: presumably pollsters go to the expense of hiring interviewers for a very good reason (UPDATE: Lukas in comments points to the assessment of legendary US polling analyst Nate Silver, that “there’s not really convincing evidence about whether IVR polls [robopolls] are inferior to regular ones”). Nonetheless, the general tenor of the results is in keeping with polling overall, give or take a few surprises. Taken together, the results point to 79 seats for Labor and 68 for the Coalition with three independents – curiously, the poll did not cover Melbourne.

Queensland. Labor to lose Brisbane, Bonner, Petrie, Leichhardt, Forde, Dawson, Flynn and Dickson, but hold Moreton, Longman and Herbert.

New South Wales. Labor to lose Lindsay, Bennelong, Macarthur and Robertson while gaining Paterson and Cowper; Labor to hold Greenway, Dobell, Page, Eden-Monaro, Gilmore and Macquarie.

Victoria. Labor to gain McEwen, La Trobe and Dunkley, but lose Corangamite.

Elsewhere. Labor to gain Boothby, lose Hasluck and Swan, and hold Solomon.

We also have Galaxy polling another 800 voters in four Queensland marginals – Bonner, Forde, Herbert and Longman – and found happier results for Labor than the Queensland sample from the weekend’s super-survey, with a swing of 3.5 per cent rather than 5.4 per cent. Morgan has also published small-sample polls from Bennelong (300) and La Trobe (200) conducted just this evening, which respectively have the Liberals leading 50.5-49.5 and Labor leading 53-47.

UPDATE: And now state-by-state breakdowns from the past two weeks of Newspoll, both of which had the national result at 52-48. The state two-party are results are 52-48 to Labor in New South Wales (a 1.7 per cent swing), 52-48 to the Coalition in Queensland (2.4 per cent swing), 55-45 to Labor in Victoria (0.7 per cent swing to Labor), 56-44 to Labor in South Australia (3.6 per cent swing to Labor) and 57-43 to the Coalition in Western Australia (3.7 per cent swing to the Coalition).

UPDATE 2: Recent state-level polling results in terms of Labor swing:

JWS Research -1.1 -2.1 2.4 -5.3 -0.5 -1.6
Galaxy marginals -1.7 -3.1 1.6 -4.3 -2.1 0.0
Newspoll (2 week) -0.7 -1.7 0.7 -2.4 -3.7 3.6
Nielsen (2 week) -1.7 -2.7 3.0 -3.4 -2.7 0.6
Essential (2 week) -1.7 -5.7 0.7 -3.4 0.3 1.6

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,759 comments on “Nielsen JWS Research marginals mega-poll (and Galaxy and Morgan)”

Comments Page 2 of 76
1 2 3 76
  1. 28,000 would suggest it’s an online panel thing.

    Have heard talk of some autodialling – ie voice recorded questions.

    Doubt Nielsen would go online at this stage – nor wouold the SMH and Age bother with it. They know it’d be shot down.

  2. BB

    You are also limited in the hrs to get a decent sample, i.e. people being at home/not at work.

    I guess you could do it on a weekend with 150 operators going flat out! Maybe the libs were onto somehting with workchoices if you could mobilise that sort of labor force.

  3. 28,000 is still a humungous size, even if it is a online poll!

    i don’t think any polling company has such a large online panel group.

  4. [TSOP

    What say you?]


    It’s a big poll which increases the odds of accuracy I guess. It’s a reasonable benchmark to aim at… either way, I’ll be very pleased if numbers like this transpire on election day.

  5. Net -2 in NSW!! Woohoo!! Like I said a couple of nights ago – time to excise qld and then we can set up a regional processing centre there…

  6. Had a bit of premature posting disorder, note to self, read all of the topic. Missed a few key words as I just saw this…..

    [LNP 79 seats to 68. 28,000 voters polled]

  7. Bushfire Bill..I do not believe Kerry wanted to go over the same old ground with Abbott. He used a completely different method of interviewing, namely..who are you? His method was to show Abbott as a person who changes his mind, depending how the wind is blowing. Who is happy within himself to admit he has had a rebirth on certain former principals. A person who doesn’t feel uncomfortable with bending the facts to suit a particular arguement…who has no regrets about shafting other people if it suits his agenda (as in Turnbull)..and KO’s final question in a very clever way took Abbott right into his catholic beliefs and Abbott failed.
    As always Abbott will present himself at the confessional to purge his soul of the lies, the personal attacks, the deceptions and the discourtesy he shows to those he disagrees with (that will eat at his catholic belief of humility). But once forgiven, the slate is wiped clean. Game on again until the next visit to the man in a dress, who will again repeat the same words after nodding wisely and absolving him..”go in peace my son and try not to sin again”.
    There you have the Abbott escape clause with his catholic beliefs.
    It is pathetic.

  8. [I’m not sure how reliable the poll is and would like to see less actual losses for Labor.]
    Well if it’s unreliable that maybe the case ltep.

  9. 8 losses in QLD?
    I’d have to add Forde, Petrie, something else to my list of the existing 5 I did earlier.
    Brisbane or Moreton or Bonner?

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 2 of 76
1 2 3 76