Nielsen JWS Research marginals mega-poll (and Galaxy and Morgan)

The super-sample poll published by Fairfax, covering 22,000 voters in 54 seats (about 400 each), turns out to have been conducted not by Nielsen, but an outfit called JWS Research whose automated phone polling on the weekend were widely noted at the time. The Sydney Morning Herald sells its managing director John Scales as “a renowned pollster” who was director of Morgan from 1992 to 1995, and research director at Crosby Textor from 2002 until earlier this year. However, its methodology is untried, at least in the Australian context: presumably pollsters go to the expense of hiring interviewers for a very good reason (UPDATE: Lukas in comments points to the assessment of legendary US polling analyst Nate Silver, that “there’s not really convincing evidence about whether IVR polls [robopolls] are inferior to regular ones”). Nonetheless, the general tenor of the results is in keeping with polling overall, give or take a few surprises. Taken together, the results point to 79 seats for Labor and 68 for the Coalition with three independents – curiously, the poll did not cover Melbourne.

Queensland. Labor to lose Brisbane, Bonner, Petrie, Leichhardt, Forde, Dawson, Flynn and Dickson, but hold Moreton, Longman and Herbert.

New South Wales. Labor to lose Lindsay, Bennelong, Macarthur and Robertson while gaining Paterson and Cowper; Labor to hold Greenway, Dobell, Page, Eden-Monaro, Gilmore and Macquarie.

Victoria. Labor to gain McEwen, La Trobe and Dunkley, but lose Corangamite.

Elsewhere. Labor to gain Boothby, lose Hasluck and Swan, and hold Solomon.

We also have Galaxy polling another 800 voters in four Queensland marginals – Bonner, Forde, Herbert and Longman – and found happier results for Labor than the Queensland sample from the weekend’s super-survey, with a swing of 3.5 per cent rather than 5.4 per cent. Morgan has also published small-sample polls from Bennelong (300) and La Trobe (200) conducted just this evening, which respectively have the Liberals leading 50.5-49.5 and Labor leading 53-47.

UPDATE: And now state-by-state breakdowns from the past two weeks of Newspoll, both of which had the national result at 52-48. The state two-party are results are 52-48 to Labor in New South Wales (a 1.7 per cent swing), 52-48 to the Coalition in Queensland (2.4 per cent swing), 55-45 to Labor in Victoria (0.7 per cent swing to Labor), 56-44 to Labor in South Australia (3.6 per cent swing to Labor) and 57-43 to the Coalition in Western Australia (3.7 per cent swing to the Coalition).

UPDATE 2: Recent state-level polling results in terms of Labor swing:

TOTAL NSW VIC Qld WA SA
JWS Research -1.1 -2.1 2.4 -5.3 -0.5 -1.6
Galaxy marginals -1.7 -3.1 1.6 -4.3 -2.1 0.0
Newspoll (2 week) -0.7 -1.7 0.7 -2.4 -3.7 3.6
Nielsen (2 week) -1.7 -2.7 3.0 -3.4 -2.7 0.6
Essential (2 week) -1.7 -5.7 0.7 -3.4 0.3 1.6

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,759 comments on “Nielsen JWS Research marginals mega-poll (and Galaxy and Morgan)”

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  1. 79 is a good number to have out there… not high enough for Labor voters in 07 to put in a lazy protest vote against Labor because it ‘won’t matter’

  2. [TSOP

    Have you been able to compare with your own predictions?]

    My prediction and this prediction are a bit too different. It would be one of my worse predictions if this is how it transpires. But as polling gets more refined there is usually a small group of seats on both sides that could go either way, so who knows?

  3. So have they polled ALL marginals and just mentioned the ones set to change? and glory, i know what you mean about it ruining the excitement

  4. So this poll suggests QLD could be the horror show everyone has been talking about

    Can’t wait to see how the poll was conducted

  5. OMG – you lot a LOL-a-poll-loosers. I said I despaired for democracy. Actually I now think I despair for common sense. This is one poll with unknown methodology among many recent polls. Perspective people!

  6. [Maxine is a fatuous windbag who has been thoroughly unimpressive]

    Boy it was sweeeeet seeing her stick the knife into the rodent… something I’ll remember for a long time 🙂

  7. It sounds about right.

    Will still be sceptical if it is an online poll though. Larger sample sizes still dont correct any problems associated with the methodology.

  8. If it ends up being Labor 79-80 seats I will be overjoyed, but this poll irks me. 28k, over 54 seats? It’s way too much. Not good, IMO.

  9. Atticus: why is it a bad thing if Labor wins Gilmore?
    The ALP branches in the end got the candidate they wanted down there, the guy who ran last time.
    My Nana, who lives in Gilmore, did her pre-poll vote today – one for Labor. 🙂

  10. ffs, just poll the whole country then! Saves us having an election 😉

    Say, that’s sounds like a Senator Online policy right there.

  11. Tell me Maxine isn’t going to lose Bennelong – there’s been all these rumours that Alexander is going to win.

    Geez JA as an MP? Not even the fact we will be spared his tennis commentary can rectify that wrong.

  12. It could be the automated telephone survey that polled us in McEwen it was due to be released today. That could have done the right number of calls as it took about 3 mins for all the questions.

  13. [If it ends up being Labor 79-80 seats I will be overjoyed, but this poll irks me. 28k, over 54 seats? It’s way too much. Not good, IMO.]

    Are you raising this as some kind of ethical issue?

  14. [you lot a LOL-a-poll-loosers]

    P.S. so you don’t look like a “loser” use “loose” when you’re describing the tightness of your underwear….

  15. The tricky question (s) tomorrow will of course be on Rudd. I think the PM should answer by saying something along the lines of “you all know the what happened and you all know I have taken responsibility for the decision. What really annoys me is that the Liberal Party seem to think Queenslanders are not smart enough to separate feelings of sympathy to Kevin Rudd from the need for good governance and that they would elect the most right wing, radical PM Australia has ever seen as some sort of protest.

    “Of course Mr Abbott also thinks women will cast their votes based on gender, so what do you expect? If people want to vote for the Liberal Party that is their right. I have every confidence that all Austrlians understand the importance of this election and will vote on issues of policy, not personalities. Of course, Mr Abbott hopes you won’t because he has no policies.”

    Confront it head on.

  16. This is a base from last weekend and confirms the general trend to Labor. By Saturday you might add another 4 or 5 to labor’s ledger as voters realise it is better to have your rep on the Government side rather than the Oppositions.

  17. [Are you raising this as some kind of ethical issue?]

    leftwingpinko – polling is polling, regardless of sample size. I just think this kind of defeats the purpose and ruins a bit of the charm.

  18. victoria.. I hope for 80 +- 3.. Anything in that range would make me happy, but with all the data we have so far, and given the uncertainties, there’s still an uncomfortable chance of something like 76 or 75.

  19. People need to calm down. There’s only one poll that matters.

    The ALP will win on Saturday. Correct me if I’m wrong, but rarely has a government been deposed without a uniform swing across most of the major states. This was never going to happen in this small target based campaign.

  20. [why is it a bad thing if Labor wins Gilmore?
    The ALP branches in the end got the candidate they wanted down there, the guy who ran last time.
    My Nana, who lives in Gilmore, did her pre-poll vote today – one for Labor.]

    It would be a miracle if Labor wins Gilmore. Obviously, your Nana does not read the Pro-Joanna Gash (Lib candidate) articles, reports, editorials, photos etc. in ” The Illawara Mercury”

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