News Limited have unloaded what they had promoted, accurately I believe, as “the largest opinion poll ever conducted in Australia” – a 4000-sample monster covering four marginal seats in each mainland state. This poll has been dubiously reported, thanks to a national total calculation which has credited the Coalition with a 51.4 per cent two-party vote. This appears to be a straight average of the five states’ results provided by Galaxy, without regard to population relativities between the states or the fact that the seats targeted were 2 per cent weaker for Labor than the national total in 2007. A balanced appraisal of the results points to a swing of about 1.7 per cent, which would produce a national Labor two-party vote of 51 per cent if consistent – slightly at the lower end of the recent phone poll trend. The poll shows a 2.4 per cent swing to the Liberals in the NSW seats of Eden-Monaro, Gilmore, Macarthur and Macquarie; a 1.6 per cent swing to Labor in Corangamite, Deakin, La Trobe and McEwen in Victoria; a 5.4 per cent swing to the Liberal National Party in Bowman, Dawson, Dickson and Flynn in Queensland; a 2.1 per cent swing to the Liberals in Hasluck, Stirling, Cowan and Swan in Western Australia; and no swing at all in Boothby, Grey, Kingston and Sturt in South Australia.
The rub for Labor is that the New South Wales and Queensland swing figures are right where they need to be to maximise the Coalition seat haul in uniform swing terms: over the 4.5 per cent mark needed for a tenth seat in Queensland, and just reaching the threshold that would cost them seven seats in New South Wales (it would take a further 1.5 per cent to bag an eighth). A straight loss of this many seats would single-handedly cost Labor the election. With no swing recorded in South Australia, the only counterbalancing gains would be the two Liberal marginals in Victoria, La Trobe and McEwen. The result would be a bare absolute majority for the Coalition.
However, any haul of 17 seats in New South Wales and Queensland would have to include a few they are generally expected to retain, such as Eden-Monaro and Page. Possibly some of the seats selected for the poll are a bit unflattering for Labor. There is a concentration of western Sydney in the NSW sample, an area yesterday’s poll of four seats for the Daily Telegraph showed to be tough for Labor (it appears Galaxy have conducted separate polls for Macarthur for each release). The Queensland sample also includes Bowman, which Labor has probably written off (UPDATE: Mark Bahnisch at Larvatus Prodeo says “Labor is barely running a campaign, with reports appearing for weeks in the Brisbane Times that their candidate is invisible, and the local papers can’t get hold of her for an interview”). Note that for all the vastness of Galaxy’s total national sample, as far as all-important Queensland is concerned the results are less sturdy than yesterday’s Newspoll, which targeted eight Queensland seats rather than four and 1600 respondents rather than 800. That poll produced a swing of 3.4 per cent against Labor compared with Galaxy’s 5.4 per cent, which in uniform swing terms would mean a difference of no fewer than four seats.
The table below shows swings recorded in state-level Newspolls and Nielsens through the first three weekends of the campaign (with one Westpoll thrown in for good measure), plus the targeted polling we have seen over the current weekend. For the former, samples for any given observation are 765 for NSW, 665 for Victoria, 585 for Queensland, 465 for WA (865 in week three, achieved by throwing in the Westpoll result) and 445 in SA, producing margins of error ranging from 4.6 per cent in South Australia’s case to 3.6 per cent for New South Wales. The composite of the most recent two Nielsen figures has smaller samples of around 250 for the smallest states. The latest Galaxy polls have samples of 800 per state and margins of error of about 3.5 per cent. The Newspoll marginals poll had samples of 600 in Victoria (4 per cent margin of error), 1200 in New South Wales (2.8 per cent margin of error) and 1600 in Queensland (2.5 per cent margin of error).
| TOTAL | NSW | VIC | Qld | WA | SA | ||
| Week 1 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 3.7 | -3.8 | 0.1 | 4.0 | |
| Week 2 | -3.6 | -9.1 | 1.7 | -3.3 | -2.9 | 0.4 | |
| Week 3 | -2.0 | -1.8 | -1.8 | -5.5 | -3.4 | 4.4 | |
| Nielsen (2 week) | -1.7 | -2.7 | 3 | -3.4 | -2.7 | 0.6 | |
| Galaxy marginals | -1.7 | -3.1 | 1.6 | -5.4 | -2.1 | 0 | |
| Newspoll marginals | 0.6 | -1.3 | 6.2 | -3.4 |
UPDATE: Remiss of me not to have noted when the poll was conducted: from Sunday to Thursday, and hence not as timely as some of the more favourable recent polling for Labor.
Almost a perfect result for Labor – a large poll that confirms a slight swing back, while it is reported in a way that might still make people think the Libs could win, and thus scare off any protest vote.
BB, Galaxy dont care about their reputation. Not a shred of credibiilty, but BB, much better for the punters to think it is close
Insiders have no credibility they don’t check there sources, they are still using the false marginal poles’ figures.
Oakes calls Abbott launch “an anticlimax”, and points out the economy is going well, and why isnt Labor streets ahead in the polls. Interesting indeed
Cassidy reckons Parkes will fall to an independent???
[Julia talks too much. Nearly every answer she runs through a whole condensed election pitch. Her opening and closing statements at Rooty Hill were also too long, with nearly every election policy packed into both of them]
So she shouldn’t be getting the message across? I’m confused.
Did antony tell insiders and they ignored him, or did he not tell them?
IASbet this morning unchanged from Friday with Labor @ 1.29 and Coalition 3.50.
A week ago Labor was 1.60.
To Antony Green for his quick work debunking the Galaxy Poll “misunderestimation” of Labor’s 2PP:
‘Onya, Antony! Played strong, done fine, son! 😀
Is anybody concerned that every poll in Eden-Monaro so far shows it going with the Opposition?
an important point Gillard missed re costings is that the opposition has made debt and deficit front and centre, which makes it more important this time around
Atticus, with respect, not point in William and Antony pointing it out it blogs. Will not get the message out
I couldn’t believe how spherical Oakes has become when Ch 9 gave a long shot of him.
Unhinged is creaky on NBN…back to Batts and School Halls
[So she shouldn’t be getting the message across? I’m confused.]
Not when you realize early on each answer that she’s embarking on another long ramble. She’s repetitive and long-winded and I just tune out.
BK – all I could think of was Jabba the Hutt
I wonder how many people would sit down and watch a Laurie Oakes interview on Sunday morning.
[Is anybody concerned that every poll in Eden-Monaro so far shows it going with the Opposition?]
None of them are a single seat poll. Betting markets favour Labor in E-M unanimously.
[Is anybody concerned that every poll in Eden-Monaro so far shows it going with the Opposition?
No. Eden-Monaro is always lumped in with the other NSW marginal polling because it’s the “bellweather”. Eden-Monaro and Bennelong will stay Labor.
[Not when you realize early on each answer that she’s embarking on another long ramble. She’s repetitive and long-winded and I just tune out.]
Well, that makes one of you.
Tone’s views on govt-funded broadband are at odds with his views on govt-funded PPL.
agreed. E-M not at risk. You cant lump marginals is one poll and then say they ALL with fall
“Abbott is spending $1b a day” Say it often
[48 chinda63
Posted Sunday, August 15, 2010 at 8:08 am | Permalink
Laocoon – exactly.
I think that probably takes the cake as the dumbest policy of the election. Part of me hopes they get in just so we can see what a horrible waste of time and money it is]
ges i hope that part of you dissapeared very quickly lol
i think that will be said by most people this week, its like dob in a friend or may be a neighbour etc who knows where it would lead yuk yuk –
Rudd speaks for McKew in Bennelong
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/rudd-speaks-for-mckew-in-bennelong-20100814-123sb.html
chinda @ 115 ah cool
Triton, is it you that finds Steve Fielding to be a good speaker?
triton, Gillard was very good. Not sure what you are watching
Netvegetable, you’re incorrect. There was a separate Eden Monaro poll earlier in the campaign which had Labor ahead 61/39. It’s a hard seat to poll though.
tones ppl,”visionary social reform ” get your hand off rabbit
Tone wants another Rooty Hill forum!
Abbott wants another Rooty Hill
What a surprise!
Why doesn’t Barrie ask Tony what he thinks can go wrong with the costings process? Obvious questions not being asked are an endless frustration.
triton, cassidy not asking the tough questions? say it isnt so?
[triton, Gillard was very good.]
the
Yes, she was right “on message”, but I dispute that the message is very good. It’s numbing.
Cassidy has conducted a good interview IMO and Abbott has responded as the quintessential slimeball he is.
.
I think the only reason the alp aren’t streaks ahead is abbots “stop the boats” mantra. Too many people take that literally, especially qld voters.
I havent heard the “$1b a day” message “halve the surplus”. they need to add this to their costello ad
it think it just shows they havent a clue how we the other half actully live.
there a lots of families i know on much less and manage to have a stay at home mum
school fees can be the killer re the budget but then its up to you what school you chose personally i would prefer to be a stay at home mum for some years any way.
Darn no tongue in cheek good interview? i didnt see it
Levine from Morgan predicts a hung Parliament or if the swing to the Coalition continues, a Coalition victory.
I have seen these marginal seat polls come and go election after election and I have never believed you can predict the election outcome that way.
The samples taken per seat are far too small and the extrapolations from one set of marginals to another are just not valid. .
[The Finnigans
Posted Sunday, August 15, 2010 at 8:26 am | Permalink
Ari says Labor will win, just, 76-78]
so fin is he saying we would win between 76/ 78 seats???
My say, that is his prediction.
I think the general consensus is that Labor can lose but probably won’t.
People, you are missing the main point of this Galaxy Poll; that it is possible for Labor to win 51% of the National polll and still lose. Here’s a comment with Antony’s answering comment, I posted on his site this morning.
.
Mr Abbott on The Insiders referred to the NBN as the “high fibre” option. A slip, but embarassingly he has confused broadband with a healthy breakfast.
LAST NIGHT? Antony they are doing it all day today too! No attempt at correction
No one’s missing that point Geoff.
Antony on Newsradio now correcting galaxy
Darn, marginal seat polls have a high MOE, and are unreliable. Combining them into one poll and then suggesting they all fall is sheer stupidity
Morgan marginals poll
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2010/4557/
These results are based on 300 interviews in each of Leichhardt, Brand and Macquarie. All show swing to Libs of 3-6%. Poll date was Aug 11-12.
Good to gear Sertse. I dont expect news ltd or galaxy or the tv networks to correct the record.
I think it is though the first time EVER that the MSM have run with an incorrect 2PP. Disgraceful