GhostWhoVotes tweets that Nielsen has Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 40 per cent for Labor, 41 per cent for the Coalition and 12 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 49-41 to 52-38 since the poll of last week, which had the Coalition leading 51-49, and she has traded two points of disapproval (now 36 per cent) for approval (54 per cent). Tony Abbott has returned to net negative personal ratings, with his approval down five to 45 per cent and disapproval up fifve to 48 per cent.
UPDATE: Galaxy has published a poll of 800 respondents in Hughes, Lindsay, Macarthur and Greenway, the result suggesting Lindsay and Greenway would stay with Labor. Conducted on August 11 and 12, it shows Labor’s primary vote down 8 per cent to 37 per cent and the Coalition on 45 per cent, translating into a 3.9 per cent two-party swing: certainly enough to cost them Macquarie and Macarthur, but not Lindsay. Eighty-six per cent said Labor did not deserve to be re-elected, but 52 per cent said that they were better than the alternative. Forty-five per cent considered Gillard more impressive to 36 per cent for Mr Abbott; 42 per cent more trustworthy compared to 33 per cent. Forty-one per cent said they were now better off than they were three years ago, while 44 per cent said worse off.
UPDATE 2: Newspoll has targeted 17 marginal seats in NSW, Queensland and Victoria, with results that are enormously heartening for Labor: a manageable 1.3 per cent swing in NSW, a surviveable 3.4 per cent in Queensland and, remarkably, a 6.2 per cent swing in their favour in Victoria. More to follow.
[The sad thing is Labor’s mad right will feel vindicated. Oh well back to watching the fun in the Liberal party. 80+ to labor.]
Not saying a thing on this till post-election … but I am interested in that Aarons story. Can’t afford any more trouble at present.
FWIW, Julia’s been very good in very trying circumstances. And of course we have had Abbott, the Basil Fawlty of Oz politics.
The Big Ship has got it summed up well at 170.
[am currently reading “Inside the War Cabinet” -many meetings were attended by six past/current/future PMs: Hughes, Menzies, Fadden, Curtin, Forde and Holt. Obviously, none of them sent their security personnel as proxies.]
Australia never had a bipartisan War Cabinet, unlike Britain and New Zealand. This must be a reference to the Australian War Advisory Council, which was a bipartisan committee of party leaders set up by Menzies in 1940 and continued by Curtin.
Southcott is rattled in Boothby!
Pyne will be waiting for a week to see if he still has a job.
JV
I’ll alert the sharks
Laura Tingle
You’ve got a choice between a very ordinary government and an opposition which isn’t ready to lead.
centaur009
Deakin is a marginal seat only held by Labor since 2007.
The previous Lib member who held that seat is recontesting it again. Baressi is his name. He is obviously very experienced and is very well known in that electorate. This seat could easily go back to the Libs.
I am hopeful it won’t, but the demographics suggest an ageing population mixed in with young families. It is a tricky one.
centaur009@293
and why is he in Perth this weekend ?? Scared of losing Hasluck & Canning & Swan & Stirling ?
I can think of one or two national political commentators who will be relieved that this poll was released on a Friday evening.
Gives them a whole weekend to work out what spin they will put on the results on Monday.
G
*grins hugely*
I think Laura Tingle made one very potent point: She is fearful
Labor will panic and produce some dangerously big new policy
(think Medicare Gold) at the launch and self-immolate.
Was nice to hear even Tingle say the opposition look like they’re not ready for government. The hope is that when the forces of darkness do try their next dirty trick the media will be less than enthusiastic.
[labor will gain 2 seats according to skynoos]
They must be trying to rally the base
Certainly, Labor will firm further in the betting with this poll, but it cannot be denied that Labor had firmed solidly in the markets before this poll.
I was just checking the GDP figures for Europe and I don’t think they’re any worse than expected.
Diogs,
Gee the MSM throwing stones.
As said yesterday, the MSM looked in the mirror last Sunday and saw Mark Latham.
Speaking of Gilmore – my Nana who lives in the electorate informs me that the Liberal member Joanna Gash is spending up big on pamphlets & promotional material.
Sitting members often have an advantage in elections, particularly incumbants who’ve been in a seat for more than 2 terms.
There is a poll on The Australian, regarding new 1GBps speeds on NBN:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/australian-it
Thanks for voting!
NBN Co will up download speeds by 10 times to 1Gbps. A 4GB HD movie can be downloaded in around 30 seconds.
* Where do I sign up? 74.09% (772 votes)
* I have no use for such speeds 25.91% (270 votes)
Total votes: 1042
Sounds like a winner so far?
I know it’s far from over but I think I just glimpsed the fat lady approaching the auditorium
Victoria..
Re Deakin, I had a rather depressing experience at Heathmont shopping centre over two recent Saturdays. First, the Baressi team were set up with balloons and plenty of volunteers. They were engaging with lots of passers by, and handing out fliers. The following week, it was Mike Symons’ team. There were plenty of them but they just stood around talking to each other. I walked by and tried to look interested but nothing could distract from their internal chatting. I sat in the sunshine and watched for 10 minutes and this same pattern continued.
Laura Tingle put such a cracker of a question to Hockey during the economy debate that he ran a country mile. It was comical to see.
I’d rather have 53 to ALP than 53 to Coalition at this stage 😀 Just waiting for confirmation of trend from Galaxy and Newspoll.
I wonder if all those Coalition ads saying that Labor will introduce a carbon tax are having the opposite effect of what they expected. Might explain the higher Greens preferences. Or maybe the Coalition’s NoNBN policy finally won all those over that were worried about the filter.
[the MSM looked in the mirror last Sunday and saw Mark Latham.]
Interesting analogy GG.
Vics- I know that sleazy Baressi too well. i helped campaign for Mike in 2007, letterboxing etc. They need to get sanbagging now not trying to win back the lost seats.
GG
Gillard said that the Government had lost its way and needed to neck the PM. I think that “very ordinary” is much the same.
Their ABC on Nielsen:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/13/2982798.htm
alias
Are you based in that electorate? If so, what is your feeling apart from the negative experience of the Labor crew being slack.
Darn,
[Sportingbet – ALP $1.33 Lib $3.25
That’s a big movement again today. ]
That shift only happened in not much more than an hour. I think the Morgan backed up by the Neilsen brought the punters out with their wallets.
Gillard would be wise not to announce anything too big or costly next Monday – don’t give Abbott any more openings to attack her on the debt & deficit stuff.
All she requires is a repetition of her campaign themes + a few modest spending initiatives AND a genuine show of unity from Rudd(which I’m sure he’ll deliver).
[I think Laura Tingle made one very potent point: She is fearful
Labor will panic and produce some dangerously big new policy
(think Medicare Gold) at the launch and self-immolate.]
No risk of that happening.
I do hope that JG announces some really big money for mental health – not to trump Abbott but simply because it is such an import issue that is seriously underfunded. I want to see action in 2011 not the start of something in 2013.
[ am currently reading “Inside the War Cabinet” -many meetings were attended by six past/current/future PMs: Hughes, Menzies, Fadden, Curtin, Forde and Holt. Obviously, none of them sent their security personnel as proxies.
Australia never had a bipartisan War Cabinet, unlike Britain and New Zealand. This must be a reference to the Australian War Advisory Council, which was a bipartisan committee of party leaders set up by Menzies in 1940 and continued by Curtin.
]
Psephos, you are correct of course.
Gorgeous Dunny@300
Aarons’ account rings awfully true from what I have been told over time.
Greensborough Growler@298
You could walk back if someone helps you out onto the rocks. What if I agreed to join the church?
[I’d rather have 53 to ALP than 53 to Coalition at this stage 😀 Just waiting for confirmation of trend from Galaxy and Newspoll.]
Did we not get that on Monday??
Rudd was not stabbed. He was not necked. In the absence of any substantial support, he resigned.
centaur009
you obviously are very familiar with this electorate. What is your feeling re Labor holding on?
btw
the vex bombshell is NOT the bombshell I have mentioned a few times
regardless of what it says, the truce stands
😉
So what are we expecting at the launch. Some are suggesting smallish policy announcements…
Me too, but with the essential qualification of *rising stocks in rising markets*
Do you read Marcus Padley’s Saturday articles in the SMH
http://www.smh.com.au/business/by/Marcus-Padley
He writes a lot of good common sense, even more so for a broker. I like his weekly stuff a lot. Have a look through some of his articles particularly on market timing.
I think his articles are chapters from a book he wrote and updated as needed etc. Still good.
Diogs,
I think that comment was before the real Julia launched herself.
Gusface@303
I’d rather they be alarmed, not alert. 😆
[Rudd was not stabbed. He was not necked. In the absence of any substantial support, he resigned.]
Didn’t Gillard challenge him for the leadership???
I saw the frickin’ knife sticking out of his back!! It was a big one.
dave
My OH is my guru. She says buy cheap and sell dear.
We’re over Rudd vs Gillard!
Rudd is doing the right thing by the Labor Party, he’s being a team player, and he’ll be magnificent at the launch on Monday.
For all Laborites, the common enemy is Phoney Tony Abbott & that bunch of tools masquerading as his shadow ministry. 😀
Diogs it was a fantastic Government, and if the vindicated ones had have suffered the iron fist of Rudd that irked them so, they would have run a whole election on it. Good policy, bloody good execution. 97% FFS if Howard ran any program in 12 years that was solely focused on re-election with anything like a 97% hit rate I’ll eat Bob Brown’s hat.
If they could ever do a like for like study of corporate / public service efficiency I guarantee you’d be shocked.
So typical, like those ready to stone Julia for not endorsing gay marriage while the alternative either is, or is happy to say, he is uncomfy in the same room. It is all about standards and setting the bar.
Victoria.. Yes I’m in Deakin but I don’t have too much to go by, frankly apart from that Heathmont experience. The only meaningful comment I can add is that Labor has chosen a slightly odd photo of Mike Symons for its billboards — not the standard political photo. Maybe that’s a good thing because Baressi has gone for the stock standard cheesy grin. Mike Symons has this vague look, and he is looking off camera in a very sort of wistful pose.
GG
[I think that comment was before the real Julia launched herself.]
So they didn’t need to dump him after all? Who’s going to tell Psephos?
[So what are we expecting at the launch. Some are suggesting smallish policy announcements…]
I’m predicting………..a warm up speech from Kevin Rudd, then Julia comes out on stage & he embraces her, then she announces one new education initiative & one new health initiative, and then she gets stuck into Abbott. 🙂
[Nielsen has been the most erratic poll over the campaign. The poll-to-poll changes for Labor’s 2PP over the last 4 polls for each company are –
Nielsen +2,-6,+1,+4
Newspoll +2,-3,-2,+2
Galaxy -2,+2,-2,+1
Essential 0,0,-1,-2
Morgan F2F 0,-1,0,+3.5
See a pattern here? Me neither.]
You have to plot the timing of the polls as well as the changes, Winston@151
If you do this you will see that sequences make more sense, and actually mesh pretty well with each other (apart, perhaps, from Essential, but it uses a two week ‘averaging” process, so isn’t directly comparable).
diogenes @ 338,
the knife was thrown from a distance
Dio
on the 22nd all will be revealed
Didn’t menzies want a bipartisan war cabinet, but curtin, said correctly, labor was the elected government and it was their responsibility.
[All she requires is a repetition of her campaign themes + a few modest spending initiatives AND a genuine show of unity from Rudd]
And the most important thing of all is to enthusiastically give us a vision for the future. Some visionary thinking with some heartfelt emotion.
That is what is missing from the campaign & team Rabbott were so busy bagging the ALP they didn’t even bother.