GhostWhoVotes tweets that Nielsen has Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 40 per cent for Labor, 41 per cent for the Coalition and 12 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 49-41 to 52-38 since the poll of last week, which had the Coalition leading 51-49, and she has traded two points of disapproval (now 36 per cent) for approval (54 per cent). Tony Abbott has returned to net negative personal ratings, with his approval down five to 45 per cent and disapproval up fifve to 48 per cent.
UPDATE: Galaxy has published a poll of 800 respondents in Hughes, Lindsay, Macarthur and Greenway, the result suggesting Lindsay and Greenway would stay with Labor. Conducted on August 11 and 12, it shows Labor’s primary vote down 8 per cent to 37 per cent and the Coalition on 45 per cent, translating into a 3.9 per cent two-party swing: certainly enough to cost them Macquarie and Macarthur, but not Lindsay. Eighty-six per cent said Labor did not deserve to be re-elected, but 52 per cent said that they were better than the alternative. Forty-five per cent considered Gillard more impressive to 36 per cent for Mr Abbott; 42 per cent more trustworthy compared to 33 per cent. Forty-one per cent said they were now better off than they were three years ago, while 44 per cent said worse off.
UPDATE 2: Newspoll has targeted 17 marginal seats in NSW, Queensland and Victoria, with results that are enormously heartening for Labor: a manageable 1.3 per cent swing in NSW, a surviveable 3.4 per cent in Queensland and, remarkably, a 6.2 per cent swing in their favour in Victoria. More to follow.
Diogs,
I think this topic has been well canvassed.
Result.
Sit back and watch the poo fly at Lib HQ. Its gonna get nutso this week!
Very negative ads on TV tonight from both sides, particularly the Abbott lot – including one showing one train crashing into another one.
Really in poor taste, but what I’ve come to expect from the right wing nutters. 😉
Just realised
Today is Friday the 13th
Black Friday
… for the Libs.
dave
curtin already knew we had to cut the apron strings from GB
I do not expect a warm-up speech from Kevin Rudd at the launch. That would be too much, I think. I reckon he will sit in a prominent position; he will be warmly applauded, and that will be it.
Bold prediction: If the Liberals lose, Brian Loughnane will resign, having proven to be a 2 time loser.
Dio
People like the savage imagery of assassination, knifinig, necking and so and so forth, for some reason.
The very simple fact is that a majority of the people who put Rudd into the job were unwilling that he stay in the job. They made this perfectly clear to him,so he resigned.
You are not there because you deserve to be. You are not there because you are the best. You are not there because of any number of sentimental reasons. Unlike the President in the US, you are not there because the voters voted you in. You are there because you have the support of the majority of your parliamentary colleagues. Rudd had, and then lost, this support and paid the price. The notion that it was two or three assassins with stabbing knives in the back, is, quite simply, absurd. This narrative suits the media. But it is not even close to reality.
Such advisors are keepers for sure 🙂
[Boerwar
Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 11:17 pm | Permalink
Rudd was not stabbed. He was not necked. In the absence of any substantial support, he resigned.]
I love revisionist history.
A parting thought:
Peak Abbott,
Peak Oil
and
Climate Change
Are not crap.
[the knife was thrown from a distance]
How do those knife-throwers always get the point to go in first, not the handle? I don’t get it?
Gus
FA? Environment? Communications?
I saw 9 election ads tonight:
6 for Pyne
2 for Libs (Same Julia, she won’t stop the boats)
1 for Labor (Costello quote)
[And the most important thing of all is to enthusiastically give us a vision for the future. Some visionary thinking with some heartfelt emotion.
That is what is missing from the campaign & team Rabbott were so busy bagging the ALP they didn’t even bother.]
Dee: well said. 🙂
The Liberal launch was a nasty, self-congratulatory affair, and it entirely set the wrong tone(pardon the pun).
alias
I know Mike Symons was a former electrician who was involved in the ETU.
Interestingly the ETU just voted not to support Labor anymore.
The ETU have recommended their members to vote Green. The secretary Dean Mighell has a vendetta against Labor. He has stated that Rudd had shafted his union and maligned him.
Current average of 5 major Polls, %53.1-46.9 to Labor
fredn
You have no doubt googled Russia Heat Wave News?
Another thought: the Liberal emphasis on “School Hall Rip-Offs” is backfiring for them, because a lot of people in various seats around the country are happy with the extra facilities provided for their schools.
Dio
actually something closer to all our hearts
diogenes @ 360,
balance and a heavier blade.
http://www.vexnews.com/news/10430/covert-affairs-liberal-candidate-and-former-tv-personality-sarah-henderson-accused-of-bob-hawke-impersonation/
Ha ha Henderson
[Another thought: the Liberal emphasis on “School Hall Rip-Offs” is backfiring for them, because a lot of people in various seats around the country are happy with the extra facilities provided for their schools.]
97+% of them in fact. I actually know a couple of Tories on P&C boards of local private schools who only had good things to say about the BER.
[Another thought: the Liberal emphasis on “School Hall Rip-Offs” is backfiring for them, because a lot of people in various seats around the country are happy with the extra facilities provided for their schools.]
Yeah, about 97.3% of them.
fibs have taken negative to another level
Dean Mighell is a menace. He thinks the Labor party owes him something when in fact he owes the party big time. I hope he remains on the outside for a long time to come.
Damn you gotta be fast around here! 😉
Dio
I can do it for short distances, say, between someone’s feet if they are stand a short distance away. But after that, buggered if I know. All the people I practised on complained about OH&S and such like.
lwp
swmbo mate is PC pres
privvy school (in joke)
they are over the moon with the BER
sure will sandbag dobell well
[Rudd was not stabbed. He was not necked. In the absence of any substantial support, he resigned]
The fact is Rudd was ‘disappeared” int he political sense.
I find this following quote particularly apt
“History did not demand Yossarian’s premature demise, justice could be satisfied without it, progress did not hinge upon it, victory did not depend on it. That men would die was a matter of necessity; which men would die, though, was a matter of circumstance, …..But that was war.
Catch-22
The only new event that was secured by the political death of Rudd was the reminder that under the ALP, our democracy is cheapened and de-valued.
fibs have no vision for the country and they are lazy politicians too
[I do not expect a warm-up speech from Kevin Rudd at the launch. That would be too much, I think. I reckon he will sit in a prominent position; he will be warmly applauded, and that will be it.]
The launch doesn’t need to be about spending or what Rudd does or doesn’t do.
We need something that is inspirational, positive, something the Coalition just don’t comprehend. Gillard has to get up there & make us feel good about ‘Going Forward’.
She has got the text right that the Coalition like to make us fear the future but she needs to inject emotion. She has to make us want to embrace the future.
Victoria.. I think the adoration for Julia Gillard in Victoria (I don’t think that’s an overstatement) might carry Mike Symons over the line. In one sense, Tony Abbott v Julia Gillard is the “perfect storm” for Victoria (the state, I mean, not you). JG is so very Victoria in her views and personality while Abbott represents everything that turns many Victorians off. I think NBN was the nail in the coffin for Abbott especially in a place like Victoria where people are generally better informed (I think) and compounds the utter cynicism of Abbott’s endless bleating about boats.
dave @ 348
[ Didn’t menzies want a bipartisan war cabinet, but curtin, said correctly, labor was the elected government and it was their responsibility.
]
Menzies wanted a bipartisan war cabinet while he was still PM, but Curtin said the same thing about the UAP needing to take full responsibility. At least he was consistent.
[Damn you gotta be fast around here! ;)]
Sorry about that.
[I think this topic has been well canvassed.]
It’s a big and important topic so it deserves a good airing, like the ETS and other topics that have been well-canvassed and will continue to be discussed.
What Gillard thinks of the 2.5 years of the Rudd Govt is obviously very important.
[Another thought: the Liberal emphasis on “School Hall Rip-Offs” is backfiring for them]
Been saying this for ages.
It looks like the Rooty Hill “disaster” wasn’t so bad after all.
Yes. Curtin also argued at great length to no avail that Singapore needed adequate air cover.
Churchill sent the Prince of Wales which of course was sunk in the south china sea along with the Repulse.
just need positivity,absolutely no negativity, and a vision for the future. That should be enough
[The only new event that was secured by the political death of Rudd was the reminder that under the ALP, our democracy is cheapened and de-valued.]
What nonsense. The electorate gets to vote on the ALP’s action within a few weeks of it happening. Sounds like democracy to me.
[ Another thought: the Liberal emphasis on “School Hall Rip-Offs” is backfiring for them
Been saying this for ages.]
The whole negative campaign tactic is backfiring. The Liberal Party haven’t had a positive message since 1998, and then it was for the GST. Ever since they have only sold fear and cynicism.
Centaur
That is the sort of crap that has no place in Australian public life. Vexnews is trash, IMHO. Candidates’ sex lives should be their personal business.
I also think the “school hall rip offs” was Abbott’s early call to strengthen the base and pitch to the over 55’s (enough of whom voted Labor in 07 to lose them the election).
rooty hill was a non event. 80% of rooty hill residents knew nothing about it
gus
[actually something closer to all our hearts]
Minister for PB? A new Ministry?
BW
[I can do it for short distances, say, between someone’s feet if they are stand a short distance away. But after that, buggered if I know. All the people I practised on complained about OH&S and such like.]
Give ’em a handful of cement and tell ’em to harden up.
diogenes @ 360,
should have said that the balance of a throwing knife is more weighted towards the blade, whereas normal knives usually have a centre of gravity located where the blade meets the handle.
[Sorry about that.]
No problem. Thought it was quite funny actually.
evan14@366
I have been saying that the BER will be popular at a grassroots level.
Even if Abbott and CO and the Media have been bagging it, people on the ground have tangible evidence of the schools that have been upgraded in the past 12 months. Parents, students, tradies, suppliers and the like have all seen firsthand the benefits from the infrastructure and the jobs that flow from it. In fact, many tradies have said without the BER they would not have much work.
Even if there were cost overruns, people accept that building works always go over budget. Heck, building one home even with contingencies always goes well over budget.
Dave
i read once where he said in before PH
wtte
[australia was one big aircraft carrier]
poignant considering that we were during WW2
another thing…does anyone else think Tony Abbott is dressed like some sort of 1960s Vegas brat pack wannabe performer?
all I can see are ears and stovepipe trouser legs, pretty soon he’s gonna appear on Dino’s hour singing ‘Dat’s amore’
[fibs have no vision for the country and they are lazy politicians too]
They’re addicted to spin and shun policy (except WorkChoices).