GhostWhoVotes tweets that Nielsen has Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 40 per cent for Labor, 41 per cent for the Coalition and 12 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 49-41 to 52-38 since the poll of last week, which had the Coalition leading 51-49, and she has traded two points of disapproval (now 36 per cent) for approval (54 per cent). Tony Abbott has returned to net negative personal ratings, with his approval down five to 45 per cent and disapproval up fifve to 48 per cent.
UPDATE: Galaxy has published a poll of 800 respondents in Hughes, Lindsay, Macarthur and Greenway, the result suggesting Lindsay and Greenway would stay with Labor. Conducted on August 11 and 12, it shows Labor’s primary vote down 8 per cent to 37 per cent and the Coalition on 45 per cent, translating into a 3.9 per cent two-party swing: certainly enough to cost them Macquarie and Macarthur, but not Lindsay. Eighty-six per cent said Labor did not deserve to be re-elected, but 52 per cent said that they were better than the alternative. Forty-five per cent considered Gillard more impressive to 36 per cent for Mr Abbott; 42 per cent more trustworthy compared to 33 per cent. Forty-one per cent said they were now better off than they were three years ago, while 44 per cent said worse off.
UPDATE 2: Newspoll has targeted 17 marginal seats in NSW, Queensland and Victoria, with results that are enormously heartening for Labor: a manageable 1.3 per cent swing in NSW, a surviveable 3.4 per cent in Queensland and, remarkably, a 6.2 per cent swing in their favour in Victoria. More to follow.
George Mega says there will be polling of 17 marginals in the OO tomorrow. Sounds like Labor is flogging Libs in Vic.
holycow, that would sound about right to me.
I would find it hard to believe that any Green could preference Abbott, let alone 15% or so.
St Gus, thank the universe I’m not perfect like you. It’s more fun on the dark side 🙂
sounds like mick has resigned himself
Based on various reports from RWLHs all around our wide brown land, there’s only one Labor-held seat I’m willing to give away, and that’s Gilmore. Everything else is still in play. Even Robertson is regarded as lineball, I’m told.
Oh I didn’t think so. Hartcher’s one of the good ones. He was certainly in close with Kev – eg this article on 09 on the stimulus:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/rudd-burnt-the-midnight-oil-as-lights-went-out/2009/02/06/1233423497135.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
in the teaser, vex mentions a green and 2 lib “scandals”. and a picture of a woman’s lips?
[Mick Wilkinson
Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 10:50 pm | Permalink
….another random rant…….]
I think I will enjoy the numbers coming in.
Looking forward to:
-Abbott won’t cry, he never really wanted the job, never really cared.
-JG will make a memorable victory speech, she is one classy lady.
-Greens having the balance of power in the senate ( kama against the labor right)
-80+ seats to labor, proof for the Liberals, if threat the electorate with total disrespect you get bitten.
Looking forward to a very pleasing night thank you.
pseph
robbo is gone
sadly
🙁
the indies will swing it to the dark side
??
Andrew@256
Don’t Tell Me Adele was in a Threesome with Troy AND Tony ? 🙂
as i said the other day, how could any greens support the fibs, as climate change is crap.
Vexnews must be the the ultimate dirt unit, how parties wish to have them in their employ..
@victoria/250,
I agree, I gonna wait till Sunday 22nd of August for Labor to be back into office.
my say @ 237,
obviously, hartcher has seen the break down of the numbers of the nielsen poll, which will be in tomorrow’s smh.
Right Wing Labor Haters??
victoria
thank you.
grog
right wing labor hacks
Sorry, I meant hacks.
Grog
RWLH=Right Wing Labor Hack
[Andrew
Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 10:59 pm | Permalink
in the teaser, vex mentions a green and 2 lib “scandals”. and a picture of a woman’s lips?]
Oh come on, not a threesom. It will help the Green vote, not good for the Liberals.
[This is good news, but I am in complete “election-is-not-over-we-are-in-the-final-week-no-hubris” mode.]
I’m with you. 8 days is a long, long time in politics. We have Vexnews teasing with a bombshell & we have the Latham 60 minutes story.
Even if there is nothing with real substance it could be ran to withdraw oxygen from the campaign. When the Libs & their cohorts get desperate it danger time.
I did like Laura Tingle’s remark that the Coalition are not ready to govern. Put a smile on the old dial. 🙂 🙂
right Wing Labor hacks
[Hayden/Hawke in 83
Note Hayden Qlder – Hawke Victorian.]
And please note that the similarities continue…
Hayden – QLD MP – same as Rudd
Hawke – VIC MP but grew up in SA – same as Gillard
sorry Frank, he is referring to his previous “scandals”. there is no indication which party is implicated in the new one…
Gus
This is when the undecideds actually start making a decision.
Prime Minister Gillard is on a positive momentum. I wouldn’t write anything off! I suspect that Psephos writes Gilmore off because the local (Lib) member is popular. (Correct me if I am wrong)
Hi Victoria are you feeling better now i want to be but still bit scared to be happy but thats my nature with anything exciting.
[pseph
robbo is gone
sadly]
Not according to my mail. Now that Belinda has gone, it’s becoming an ordinary seat again. It may go, but certainly not certainly.
“Some people are on the pitch! They think it’s all over! IT IS NOW!”
[Oh I didn’t think so. Hartcher’s one of the good ones.]
Mmmmm, dunno bout that Grog.
centre
As i have said many times,we cant accept just anyone
😉
If Labor win handsomely I wonder if the old Liberals in the Reps will finally retire allowing their party to renew or will they stick around for another 3 years stinking out the room.
[Psephos writes Gilmore off because the local (Lib) member is popular. (Correct me if I am wrong)]
That, and Labor botched its candidate selection.
nielsen being reported on sky news
psephos,
Get the crowd interested. Say that Sturt is in play.
#183
The Longest Decade was about Paul Keating’s economic and sociocultural reforms that changed Australia and how John Howard agreed with many of his economic ideas and successfully changed a lot of things socioculturally back to the way they were before the Hawke-Keating years.
It’s a great read.
Please tell me La Trobe is going to eject Jason “Orgasm” Wood
[Ozymandias
I am currently reading “Inside the War Cabinet” -many meetings were attended by six past/current/future PMs: Hughes, Menzies, Fadden, Curtin, Forde and Holt. Obviously, none of them sent their security personnel as proxies.]
Very funny!
Three major PMs and three minor PMs, but there was obviously a spirit of bipartisanship when a threat somewhat more dangerous than a few boatloads of refugees was approaching!
will appear tomorrow in fairfax newspapers
wasn’t there a recent crikey article claiming that the greens were preferencing the coalition?
BW – I think I saw something about that in the Fin Rev while ago. But whatever we will quickly get back in gear with world markets. Maybe a trading opportunity but I’m more of a *rising stocks in rising markets* kind a investor these days.
BTW I should have said look at page 5 of that pdf file – it sets out what I was trying to communicate.
Tom,
Bronwyn’s only 69. She’s got upside potential.
Sportingbet – ALP $1.33 Lib $3.25
That’s a big movement again today.
my say
The momentum has certainly shifted Labor’s way. But as others have mentioned. We have one week to go. Labor have to stay disciplined and on message.
The launcy is on Monday, and hopefully it will be a positive event, unlike the vitriol served up by Abbott and Co.
Libs smashed would be great if all in play and the clever Vics delivering 2 or 3 we could see labor gains.
But why was rabbott in deakin? I thought it would be time for sandbagging! Was he in Latrobe?
256 is there a link
Gusface@258
Yes, if Labor hold Robertson after the Belinda Neal catastrophe, I’ll swim to Terrigal point and back from the beach.
dave
I am a long term investor.
sorry, that the flow of greens preferences were flowing towards the coalition vs apreference deal
jv,
No need to come back.
labor will gain 2 seats according to skynoos