Nielsen: 53-47 to Labor; Galaxy western Sydney poll

GhostWhoVotes tweets that Nielsen has Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 40 per cent for Labor, 41 per cent for the Coalition and 12 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 49-41 to 52-38 since the poll of last week, which had the Coalition leading 51-49, and she has traded two points of disapproval (now 36 per cent) for approval (54 per cent). Tony Abbott has returned to net negative personal ratings, with his approval down five to 45 per cent and disapproval up fifve to 48 per cent.

UPDATE: Galaxy has published a poll of 800 respondents in Hughes, Lindsay, Macarthur and Greenway, the result suggesting Lindsay and Greenway would stay with Labor. Conducted on August 11 and 12, it shows Labor’s primary vote down 8 per cent to 37 per cent and the Coalition on 45 per cent, translating into a 3.9 per cent two-party swing: certainly enough to cost them Macquarie and Macarthur, but not Lindsay. Eighty-six per cent said Labor did not deserve to be re-elected, but 52 per cent said that they were better than the alternative. Forty-five per cent considered Gillard more impressive to 36 per cent for Mr Abbott; 42 per cent more trustworthy compared to 33 per cent. Forty-one per cent said they were now better off than they were three years ago, while 44 per cent said worse off.

UPDATE 2: Newspoll has targeted 17 marginal seats in NSW, Queensland and Victoria, with results that are enormously heartening for Labor: a manageable 1.3 per cent swing in NSW, a surviveable 3.4 per cent in Queensland and, remarkably, a 6.2 per cent swing in their favour in Victoria. More to follow.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

539 comments on “Nielsen: 53-47 to Labor; Galaxy western Sydney poll”

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  1. Peter Hartcher just said on abusrdlylateline that the Greens preferences were running 86% to Labor.. umm which poll was he referring to?

  2. [Hayden never won an election. The last time there were two Labor PMs in parliament at the same time was in 1949 (Scullin and Chifley).]

    What about Frank Forde?

  6. [Hayden never won an election. The last time there were two Labor PMs in parliament at the same time was in 1949 (Scullin and Chifley).]

    Hawkey was still in there with Keating briefly wasn’t he???

  8. 86% is fantastic.

    I wonder how many of those Gs will actually vote Labor when they experience the sobering atmosphere of the polling booth.

  12. [193
    redwombat

    Greens preferences running at 86% to ALP]

    Every time TA says that a vote for Labor is a vote for a Carbon Tax, he is essentially urging Green voters to preference the ALP. He has done a good job on this.

  15. Fredn

    [As I have said from day one of this campaign, 80+ to labor, why, because the Australian electorate isn’t stupid.]

    Well, yes, of course your flaky vibe is much more concrete if you can’t understand these numbers. This would work well in the tally room (if you are card carrying ALP I don’t have to lie awake worried that you might be tallying votes in my electorate…

    Fredn [in tally room]: “Arrgh.. more random numbers!, the Australian electorate CAN’T be THAT stupid (tears up voter slips in frustration) Oh, just say the ALP wins this seat, OK??!!”

  22. [ Tingle raises a good point.. are we going to see the real Tony Abbott now? #lateline 17 minutes ago via web ]

    I wonder – I thought we might today when he was asked about the Grech leak but he walked away instead. This week will be interesting.

    Let’s keep cool tho until we see what the weekend brings with newspoll. If it’s heading the same way then Tone may give us a good dummyspit if he gets some hard questions on Q&A.

  24. [What about Frank Forde?]

    Sorry, I misread the question.

    He left the parliament in 1946.

    Interestingly, up until he retired, the parliament had 5 PMs in it.

  27. briefly,

    Good point!. TA hasn’t done anything to endear himself to Greens voters. Probably all comes back to the fact that Abbott’s powerbase is those in God’s waiting room. Why worry about the future if you’re not in it?

  29. [Awww, I like Dio. I know he says stuff that sometimes depresses but he is intelligent and of a decent political philosophy]
    i now scroll past dio because i afraid i will get depressed

  30. But Kevin and Julia will not just have sat in parliament together both having been PM, if Julia wins and Kevin takes his seat they will both have fought and won an election. And Keating went on to win one, but I’m pretty sure Bob was gone by then.

  31. [ Psephos

    The last time there were two Labor PMs in parliament at the same time was in 1949 (Scullin and Chifley).]

    I was thinking about Scullin during last week – wondering whether this was possible –

    1. Incumbent PM loses seat in landslide loss
    2. World Economic Crisis
    3. One term Federal Government

    It happened in 1929-1931, but that time Australia went down with the rest of the world. This time we have done so much better than other Western nations, I was thinking surely not?

  36. [cupidstunt @ 218

    who is going to be brave and say its all over?]

    Me. The electorate has had their look at Abbott, saw what they have always seen, and said ‘piss off’.

    And Betfair now has Labor 1.3, Coalition 3.8.

  39. dave
    I have forgotten where but I have seen a bit of analysis that Australian shares usually have a climb in the fortnight after Labor gets into government.

  40. [(No one here, with the notable exception of Mr 100, Gus himself, believes that the ALP will do better than the previous election).]

    Guess again: I’m going to pin myself down and commit to 85 seats for the ALP.

    Based on: The Fibs seem to me to be just a sliver away from breakdown. If the ALP get reasonably clear air over this weekend and monday, then they will finish the campaign at a canter, looking good.

    I think Gus is brave person, and i hope his prediction is more right than mine. 🙂

  42. All the shifts in the right places- 2PP, PV, PPM, satisfaction. A very encouraging set of numbers…

    What is it with the vexnews teaser? Is it going to be bad for Abbott??

  43. [Pebbles,

    Diogs thinks that flip flopping makes him interesting.]

    He’s just just scared of being a happy clapping Pollyanna

    So he goes out of his way to be a Cassandra.

  44. Lest we forget – in the sudden new hubris environment on “Labor’s PB”, which if this keeps up could well be a factor in global warming – I would offer counsel from the bunker of rational policy. Yes it seems we have an impending result in favour of a douche over a turd, (or vice-versa). If so I win money.

    But Labor’s policy aversion; its campaign; and those responsible for it, require a pull-through of extreme rigor, to the extent that others are put in control.

    And with apologies to an erstwhile hero of mine:
    Well may we say God save the Senate, but nothing can save the House of Representatives

  45. [Hey Laborlubbers

    Off to bed. Enjoy your beautiful polls. Well deserved, Julia had a fine week! 🙂 ]

    Nice words Mick. 🙂

  46. hartcher just spoke story of abbot advising greenie supporters to preference him as the liberal party was the only party that offered an effective carbon reduction scheme.

  47. George on Lateline discussed Newspoll marginal polling. 8 seats in QLD, 6 in NSW, 3 in VIC. No numbers given, but he said the further down the east coast you go, the better for the ALP. He said still a swing to LNP in QLD, less so in NSW and a decent swing to ALP in VIC. Not sure if in the OO tomorrow or not.

  48. TSOP @ 224
    [ Interestingly, up until he retired, the parliament had 5 PMs in it.
    ]

    I am currently reading “Inside the War Cabinet” -many meetings were attended by six past/current/future PMs: Hughes, Menzies, Fadden, Curtin, Forde and Holt. Obviously, none of them sent their security personnel as proxies.

  49. btw having spent all weekend in Bonner the K Rudd factor is going to be very important there and in Moreton…. plenty of my fam were massively unahppy with the de-throaning and frankly had someone called them they may have said they would vote for vasta…. but with his re-emergence everyone is feeling much better and from a very very very small sample (with my head out the window), I can’t see it happening…. and seeing the KRudd “sticking up for the south side” adds appearing all over the place is a good indication of how important he would be… anyone drive by the gabba and see that huge thing!!!

  50. Boerwar. Another great report by Bluey.

    and a great Nielsen Poll.

    I am not going to get over confident. I will stick to 80 seats for Labor. I don’t want to be greedy!!

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