Nielsen: 53-47 to Labor; Galaxy western Sydney poll

GhostWhoVotes tweets that Nielsen has Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 40 per cent for Labor, 41 per cent for the Coalition and 12 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 49-41 to 52-38 since the poll of last week, which had the Coalition leading 51-49, and she has traded two points of disapproval (now 36 per cent) for approval (54 per cent). Tony Abbott has returned to net negative personal ratings, with his approval down five to 45 per cent and disapproval up fifve to 48 per cent.

UPDATE: Galaxy has published a poll of 800 respondents in Hughes, Lindsay, Macarthur and Greenway, the result suggesting Lindsay and Greenway would stay with Labor. Conducted on August 11 and 12, it shows Labor’s primary vote down 8 per cent to 37 per cent and the Coalition on 45 per cent, translating into a 3.9 per cent two-party swing: certainly enough to cost them Macquarie and Macarthur, but not Lindsay. Eighty-six per cent said Labor did not deserve to be re-elected, but 52 per cent said that they were better than the alternative. Forty-five per cent considered Gillard more impressive to 36 per cent for Mr Abbott; 42 per cent more trustworthy compared to 33 per cent. Forty-one per cent said they were now better off than they were three years ago, while 44 per cent said worse off.

UPDATE 2: Newspoll has targeted 17 marginal seats in NSW, Queensland and Victoria, with results that are enormously heartening for Labor: a manageable 1.3 per cent swing in NSW, a surviveable 3.4 per cent in Queensland and, remarkably, a 6.2 per cent swing in their favour in Victoria. More to follow.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

539 comments on “Nielsen: 53-47 to Labor; Galaxy western Sydney poll”

Comments Page 4 of 11
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  1. Nielsen has been the most erratic poll over the campaign. The poll-to-poll changes for Labor’s 2PP over the last 4 polls for each company are –

    Nielsen +2,-6,+1,+4
    Newspoll +2,-3,-2,+2
    Galaxy -2,+2,-2,+1
    Essential 0,0,-1,-2
    Morgan F2F 0,-1,0,+3.5

    See a pattern here? Me neither.

  2. Adam my friend in the right, and I’m handing out how to votes for a doomed to lose by a lot righty here in WA, but I will grant you one thing after observing that they were always going to come back to Rudd, and I think you know it, but I will give you a crumb in the light of so much 8 day too early joy, but nothing in politics vindicates more completely or cleanses blood from the hands like a victory. Have us feeling this way in 8 days and even Diogs may …. no never mind.

  4. $1.32-1.35 is still available on the betting markets. It’s amazing, so much more ponderous then the sport of kings. It’s just so much easier to win on politics than on horses. If you don’t back Labor at that price, at least to the value of a week’s groceries, then you aren’t a punter.

  5. [When their sense the wind blowing in a particular direction, they start to plan for the post-election period. Why alienate the new government if the writing is on the wall?]
    The journos and media editorials want to be seen to call the result correctly. This is likely to produce some interesting double backflips with triple pike over the next week.

    BTW, this is the only bandwagon effect that I believe operates in Australia.

  10. [I will never understand Qlders. In June they were ready to lynch Rudd, now they love him again.]

    Maybe you should never again underestimate Rudd. 🙂

  11. Watch the body language, facial expressions and voice tone of Messrs Abbott and Hockey, as they turn to aggression, and depression, respectively.

    Exhibit 1 – hockey last night on 7:30 report – was not a happy chappy.

  12. [I will never understand Qlders.]
    You don’t understand parochialism? Get out of the golden triangle more. That’s were the other half of the population live.

  15. [Psephos
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 10:27 pm | Permalink
    I wouldn’t have believed it, but the RWLHs tell me that Rudd’s campaigning in the Qld marginals has had a major impact. Rudd goes to marginal seat X, says “It’s OK to vote for Julia”, and lo, the Qlders get back on the cart. I will never understand Qlders. In June they were ready to lynch Rudd, now they love him again.]

    And if Rudd was leader they would have bitched to election day, then voted for him. The big problem with you stupid focus groups is they only deal with the surface issues. Politics is about a lot more.

    As an example, It’s one thing to tell a pollster your going to vote for Abbott when you pissed of with the labor right and their stupid focus groups, it’s another to actually throw the country overboard and do it.

  16. Rod Hagen, betting moves occur before polling trends are established.

    Don’t be ridiculous! 🙂

    Laura Tingle is a smart chick, I think she makes more sense than most.

  17. So I take it that, from this discussion, the Nielsen on Sunday rumour was BS? Either that or GhostWhoVotes is even more awesome than we thought (is that possible?)

  18. [fredn

    Hey sheep! Yeah you!! Wake up!!!

    For the 237th time. I’m not a Lib and I definitely won’t be voting coalition in this election.

    Take the blinkers off, unless of course you can’t function without them.. 🙂 ]

    Newspoll publishes in the OO which won’t be out again until Monday…

  19. Psephos

    [I wouldn’t have believed it, but the RWLHs tell me that Rudd’s campaigning in the Qld marginals has had a major impact. Rudd goes to marginal seat X, says “It’s OK to vote for Julia”, and lo, the Qlders get back on the cart. I will never understand Qlders. In June they were ready to lynch Rudd, now they love him again.]

    I’ve lived there, and yes it is unpredictable.

    Funny to hear Laura Tingle on in the background with her new “post-hoc” (=post-polls) analysis of Rooty Hill – Abbott “didn’t look Prime Ministerial” – Gillard “tough” etc

  20. Put the good Nielsen result down to:

    (1) Rudd/Gillard rapprochement.
    (2) ‘New’ Julia re-focussed on to the Economy, and the good ALP story.
    (3) NBN.
    (4) Coalition costings fiasco.

    All of the other ALP policy things are good news and add to the view that the Government is worthy of re-election, but most voters don’t obsess over this stuff like PBers do, and only see some of the oversimplified images that filter through the MSM horse race judgments.

    Ultimately, it still comes down to a pseudo-beauty contest for many (most?) voters and Julia Gillard is simply more appealing than the harsh and strident Abbott.

  22. Other than the main game of backing the overall winner, I’m a bit worried about the ‘interest bet’ I took – Labor to win in Dawson, after the Lib goose was exposed. I got a good price, but I forgot the inherent One Nation gene in those parts. But it was just an interest bet.

  25. Right. Now to business folks!

    I have gone through permutations of likely outcomes for this election and considered 22 events as such:

    81:66:3:0 (ALP:COALITION:IND:GRN) to 70:77:3:0 12 events
    80:66:3:1 through to 69:77:3:1 12 events

    Of these events we get:

    11 events showing an outright ALP victory
    4 events showing an outright Coaltion victory
    1 event showing a ‘pure’ hung parliament (74:72:3:1)
    1 event showing an ALP/GRN minority government
    7 events showing a Coaliton/IND minority government

    So, in this sample space we see:

    Some kind of ALP government: 50%
    Some kind of Coaliton government: 46%
    Some tub of Bovine Excrement: 4%

    Currently, seat betting is at 73:73:3:1 which is 16 events in. As Mike correctly stated, this is no prediction of success but the seat market is pointing to some form of minority government (6 events left to outright ALP victory and 5 events to the right for a Coalition one.

    NOTE: Before someone questions these ‘funny’ low ALP numbers, I would state again that Antony Green’s Calculator includes those seats notional after redistribution. In each case (5 Coalition seats now nominally ALP and 2 Coalition seats now nominally ALP) no seat bet currently gives any regard to this situation. Nor to I, the margins are all very tight.

    Thus, currently in parliament we have 83 ALP, 64 Coalition and 3 Ind. (No one here, with the notable exception of Mr 100, Gus himself, believes that the ALP will do better than the previous election).

    Ok, sheepies… spin that wheeeeeeeeeellllll!

  26. If someone has the time/knowledge – has an incumbent ever lost an election after leading the polls on the last weekend, and how often is the incumbent ahead on the last weekend?

  29. [When was the last time a parliament had two Labor members who’d led Labor to power at an election?]

    That’s a good question. Let’s not forget that Simon Crean also led the ALP (although never won an election)

  31. Now is probably not the time for it but I’ve been pondering a psephological question today. Fed elections are always remarkably close.

    If you look at the TPP of Federal vs State elections over the last 30 years or so, it looks like Federal TPPs are much closer than State ones for the actual election (I was too lazy to get out the figures and prove it so I may be wrong).

    There seems to be some self-correcting bias in Fed politics that drags it back to 50-50.

    Is it just a coincidence, it the observation not true or is something going on in Federal politics which doesn’t happen in State politics.

  33. [The Longest Decade, I think George Megalogenis is an excellent unbiased commentator.]

    did george write the book was it about the howard years

  35. For mine, the best line of the campaign so far has to go to TA, who managed to completely dismantle any claims he may have to know what he’s doing when he declared, “I’m no tech head.” Not content with stating the obvious just once, he repeated himself on national television, “You’ve lost me. I am not a tech head.”

    Around this great nation, the voters nodded in affirmation. “Yes,” they mused, “He is no tech head. He is just another dick head…..”

    It could well be that a lot of voters don’t know the difference between a twisted copper pair and fibre to the node. But they sure as hell hope the Government does! At least the ranga seems to know what she’s talking about.

    Abbott revealed himself for the fool he actually is and as result he and the rest of the LNP are going to pay a very heavy price. What a joy.

  38. It’s Time

    [ -surely the most apt Keating quote is “a beautiful set of numbers”?

    Saving yourself up for “sweetest victory of all”?
    ]

    -no, IT, that was 2007, specifically Bennelong.

  40. Gusface 174

    Awww, I like Dio. I know he says stuff that sometimes depresses but he is intelligent and of a decent political philosophy.

    Maybe I am biased because he is a fellow croweater.

    Maybe the fact my belly is currently full of fermented grape juice is impairing my judgment. 😉

  41. What I like about the poll figures is the fact that the Greens are polling 12%. Julia will pick up more than 80 to 20 on that.

    I give Laura Tingle a wrap, and she goes and says something stupid. There you go!

  42. [Mick Wilkinson
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 10:38 pm | Permalink
    …More random numbers….]

    As I have said from day one of this campaign, 80+ to labor, why, because the Australian electorate isn’t stupid.

  45. [Let’s not forget that Simon Crean also led the ALP (although never won an election)]

    Umm, coz he never contested an election?

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