Nielsen: 53-47 to Labor; Galaxy western Sydney poll

GhostWhoVotes tweets that Nielsen has Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 40 per cent for Labor, 41 per cent for the Coalition and 12 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 49-41 to 52-38 since the poll of last week, which had the Coalition leading 51-49, and she has traded two points of disapproval (now 36 per cent) for approval (54 per cent). Tony Abbott has returned to net negative personal ratings, with his approval down five to 45 per cent and disapproval up fifve to 48 per cent.

UPDATE: Galaxy has published a poll of 800 respondents in Hughes, Lindsay, Macarthur and Greenway, the result suggesting Lindsay and Greenway would stay with Labor. Conducted on August 11 and 12, it shows Labor’s primary vote down 8 per cent to 37 per cent and the Coalition on 45 per cent, translating into a 3.9 per cent two-party swing: certainly enough to cost them Macquarie and Macarthur, but not Lindsay. Eighty-six per cent said Labor did not deserve to be re-elected, but 52 per cent said that they were better than the alternative. Forty-five per cent considered Gillard more impressive to 36 per cent for Mr Abbott; 42 per cent more trustworthy compared to 33 per cent. Forty-one per cent said they were now better off than they were three years ago, while 44 per cent said worse off.

UPDATE 2: Newspoll has targeted 17 marginal seats in NSW, Queensland and Victoria, with results that are enormously heartening for Labor: a manageable 1.3 per cent swing in NSW, a surviveable 3.4 per cent in Queensland and, remarkably, a 6.2 per cent swing in their favour in Victoria. More to follow.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

539 comments on “Nielsen: 53-47 to Labor; Galaxy western Sydney poll”

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  1. [Oh yeah, the betting does it again!
    The Betting: Numero Uno (1)
    The Polls: Numero (2)
    ]

    Not so, Centre. The polls have been moving consistently upwards for Labor since the dreadful 47.8 Labor 52.2 Coalition Neilsen poll a couple of weeks back. If you ignore the absolute numbers and look at the trends then the betting has actually been following the polls, not vice versa.

  2. [-surely the most apt Keating quote is “a beautiful set of numbers”?]
    Saving yourself up for “sweetest victory of all”?

  3. [13 Gusface
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:45 pm | Permalink
    well, its time to revise my]

    what is that mike on about
    gee gus i feel i should whisper

    this is not supposed to hapen

  4. [ASBV
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 10:14 pm | Permalink
    can someone point me in the direction of bluey the octopus daily report please?]

    A time of posting would be great.

  5. [For the 237th time. I’m not a Lib and I definitely won’t be voting coalition in this election.

    Didn’t you say your dad was a mover n shaker for the libs and you learnt from him.

    I don’t care if you are or are not a lib, but your many posts here strongly indicate that where your heart is. Maybe is just your communication skills that make people believe it.

    Who gives a rats anyway ??

  6. Wowsers! 53-47!

    I know Dio is gonna hate me for saying this but I am gonna wait for the Newsy and Galaxy. The Coalition need some good news from them. As it stands, it’s not good for Abbott at all.

    As I said prior to the election, it’s the last fortnight that defines the campaign. Unless Tone can stem the momentum in the next couple of days, Julia will win. The only question will be by how much.

  7. GG

    Not on the Pollytrend. There are a few under 50%. Funnily enough, Poss still has the Libs winning on Pollytrend phone. He hasn’t included this poll yet.

    I think it’s all over bar the shouting now.

  8. Can we just simplify this into scenarios where we could conclude whoever is right.

    e.g. Number of seats saved in Qld for Rudd to be vindicated
    no of seats won etc for people’s betting analyses be proven correct

  9. Pedro
    [Killer bees- I am most intrigued to know what emperical evidence you have to back that up.]
    Ha! Just trying to draw an analogy, as I think they are at least a couple of seats up. The market has changed considerably since the last newspoll and as I said in a post last night, there are probably several people who have accurate data on the marginals. The overall market might be more accurate at the moment as there is no liquidity in the seat markets.

  10. [Let’s keep finger crossed that there are no major leeks/disasters for Labor in the next week

    Major leeks only happen in Welsh elections.

    *gives Psephos a daffodil*

  11. good point Sean… I can never understand the debt argument… when average jo has debt themselves to facilitate their life… also… given what I do for a crust I am very glad our government acted so decisively…. my industry was smashed.. but at least everyone else wasn’t… and 10% unemployment is soul destroying for a country… I am very glad the tax I paid went towards the successful completion of 97% of BER projects and investments in our schools to keep tradies in work… I do a lot of work in Spain, Russia, the UK, the US… and I will take our situation and our governments response over anywhere else. (as much as we were also fortunate but that is not the governments fault… )

  12. Dio @112, the interesting thing is, will these turn PollyTrend around, or merely flatten it out. I suspect it will take one or two more positive (51+) polls for PollyTrend to actually do an up trend.

  13. Over the coming days, watch for increased spin from certain members of the fourth estate as they try to boost the tories and/or to cover their own sorry arses.

    Watch the body language, facial expressions and voice tone of Messrs Abbott and Hockey, as they turn to aggression, and depression, respectively.

    Most of all, marvel at the assiduousness with which the member for Wentworth will be noticed to go about serving the interests of his local electorate.

  14. [If this reported Nielsen is correct then sort of condemens the last one which had a move from 54 to 48 for Labor]

    Since the “fall” Neilsen has gone from 47.8 Labor (at the nadir of the “leaks” stuff) , to 49.6, to whatever “53%” is a rounding of (could be anywhere between 52.5 to 53.5, but I’d bet on it being at the lower end). The changes actually pretty well match what we have seen in other polls over the same period. The base might have been an under-estimate, but probably not by much. I suspect they are actually getting it pretty right.

  15. Psephos : Agree, Queensland is back on board. I think there is a vibe of pro-Julia again, it’s like the honeymoon has returned.

  16. Newcastle Jets kicked an own-goal late in their A-League game tonight, but I think it pales into insignificance with the Liberals’ own goals this week –

    1. Refusing second debate
    2. Refusing policy costings (I mean, they are released to the public anyway, so what iss the big deal?)
    3. Joel Scalzi’s contribution to the Rooty Hill event – I think the CIA call it “blowback”
    4. Broadband fiasco

  17. [Psephos : cannot believe that Leek joke hasn’t been made earlier! Nice.]

    Not to toot my own horn, but I have made several leek/Wales references in the last couple of weeks.

  18. cc

    I think Poss needs to rejig Pollytrend to put Labor ahead PDQ. Otherwise I can feel another Poss vs Psephos cagematch coming on.

  19. One factor that starts to come into play with the political journos: When their sense the wind blowing in a particular direction, they start to plan for the post-election period. Why alienate the new government if the writing is on the wall?

  20. Rod Hagen,

    I will respond to your post by saying, maybe that if you analysed the markets a bit closer, you would form a different view.

  21. This is good news, and corrects what were two Nielsens with implausibly low votes for Labor in a couple state sub-samples.

    Anyone know whether we get the standard big Newspoll marginal poll tonight?

  22. nah, Possum has chosen a methodology – its only correct that he stick to it. I’m still not sure that the phone poll trend really is the “best measure” though.. even if its a quarter point, that’s still several seats.

  23. [3. Joel Scalzi’s contribution to the Rooty Hill event – I think the CIA call it “blowback”]

    I’d laugh if this is true – as it would be the second time a Scalzi has undermined the Libs’ chance of winning an election this year!

  24. I wouldn’t have believed it, but the RWLHs tell me that Rudd’s campaigning in the Qld marginals has had a major impact. Rudd goes to marginal seat X, says “It’s OK to vote for Julia”, and lo, the Qlders get back on the cart. I will never understand Qlders. In June they were ready to lynch Rudd, now they love him again.

  25. Diogs,

    Possum is only as good as his data and his statistical analysis

    Psephos gives you smell of the liniment and the joy of sharing your opponent’s blood and teeth.

  26. [TSOp

    stop tooting your horn

    you might go blind]

    Nonsense. Tooting one’s horn is healthy and completely natural! 😀

  27. [They will have more of the heavily negative stuff, and in the end will fall back on xenophobia / boats, sad cases that they are.]

    A dog always returns to its vomit.

  28. To Speak of Pebbles@136

    3. Joel Scalzi’s contribution to the Rooty Hill event – I think the CIA call it “blowback”

    I’d laugh if this is true – as it would be the second time a Scalzi has undermined the Libs’ chance of winning an election this year!

    Tueesday was the Lib’s Fraudband Announcement- poll taken Tue-Thursday.

    The Geeks have spoken – you may drop the filter, but you will NOT deny me my NBN.

  29. Wow this is Nielsen! I thought it was Galaxy!

    Kudos GhostWhoVotes!

    I wonder what Peter Hartcher has to say after his comments on Lateline about last weeks poll favouring the Coalition being the new normal.

    By the way, after reading The Longest Decade, I think George Megalogenis is an excellent unbiased commentator.

  30. Centre, you have to take the trend in each of the different pollsters offerings separately, rather than lumping them in together to see the situation properly. If you look at it with this in mind, you will see that the poll changes actually precede the betting changes.

  31. BW wrote –

    [ I am overweight cash and gold shares. What are your analyses telling you?

    I think they have been great calls BW, so far. Gold shares (ie the index) are the standout performer on ASX this YTD.

    I’m going to switch some cash into diversified fixed interest (bonds) early next week.

    Then look for a stockmarket rally around October – In the four year us cycle, the fifteen month from then has an excellent record – but we need to see how bonds and the markets are behaving at that time etc.

    BW – Have a look at the general idea outlined here –
    http://www.alphaim.net/formula_brochure.pdf

  32. [In June they were ready to lynch Rudd, now they love him again.]

    Maybe it’s like you break up with someone and then later you realise you actually loved them?

  33. Psephos @137, what really tickled me senseless was he media saying stupid things like “The QLDers are pissed that they couldn’t throw Rudd out themselves”.. while at the same time saying “QLDers are swinging away from Labor cos of Julia”..

  34. Psephos

    You said that we can expect a Newspoll this weekend. Do you mean the usual Sunday night one or something tonight/tomorrow?

  35. In my (biased) mind labors problems 2 weeks ago were superficial, ‘no clear’ air, leaks, questions about Rudd. The Libs problems this weeks are bad policies, cost blowouts, bad policies.
    Also the Libs are behind, but Abbott has been on message and contained. Looking to post mortems after the election , what if the Libs had a leader who led on policy was all over the costings etc, etc.

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