Nielsen: 53-47 to Labor; Galaxy western Sydney poll

GhostWhoVotes tweets that Nielsen has Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 40 per cent for Labor, 41 per cent for the Coalition and 12 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 49-41 to 52-38 since the poll of last week, which had the Coalition leading 51-49, and she has traded two points of disapproval (now 36 per cent) for approval (54 per cent). Tony Abbott has returned to net negative personal ratings, with his approval down five to 45 per cent and disapproval up fifve to 48 per cent.

UPDATE: Galaxy has published a poll of 800 respondents in Hughes, Lindsay, Macarthur and Greenway, the result suggesting Lindsay and Greenway would stay with Labor. Conducted on August 11 and 12, it shows Labor’s primary vote down 8 per cent to 37 per cent and the Coalition on 45 per cent, translating into a 3.9 per cent two-party swing: certainly enough to cost them Macquarie and Macarthur, but not Lindsay. Eighty-six per cent said Labor did not deserve to be re-elected, but 52 per cent said that they were better than the alternative. Forty-five per cent considered Gillard more impressive to 36 per cent for Mr Abbott; 42 per cent more trustworthy compared to 33 per cent. Forty-one per cent said they were now better off than they were three years ago, while 44 per cent said worse off.

UPDATE 2: Newspoll has targeted 17 marginal seats in NSW, Queensland and Victoria, with results that are enormously heartening for Labor: a manageable 1.3 per cent swing in NSW, a surviveable 3.4 per cent in Queensland and, remarkably, a 6.2 per cent swing in their favour in Victoria. More to follow.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

539 comments on “Nielsen: 53-47 to Labor; Galaxy western Sydney poll”

Comments Page 2 of 11
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  1. This poll is important because it will set the mood for the final week in each camp.

    Now Abbott will wish he had taken the second debate offer, and so will his colleagues. The Libs will be starting to think of who will lead then after next Sunday and that will show in their efforts. Watch Joe Hockey jockey for position. Robb is really starting to falling apart.

    Julia will feel more comfortable in her skin. Rudd will be magnificent at the Labor Launch on Monday. The NBN is a proving to be a strong issue where the Libs are stuck on the losing side of a compelling argument. This will be a tough and dirty last week but with a huge effort an ALP come from behind victory is possible. Swan has been hitting his straps on economics. Game well and truly on!

  2. I think if this Galaxy poll tomorrow is correct, that Julia Gillard is riding a new unstoppable wave of popularity, then one key factor was identified by Bluey in his latest report tonight where he referred to JG’s answer at a press conference today on the western Sydney rail link where she stopped a “gotcha” attempt in its tracks by answering simply: “I made a decision”. This same firm decisiveness was on display on Q&A where she again said “I made a call” on replacing Kevin Rudd, adding that this meant it was not in the realm of requiring an apology. I think Australians like this blend of friendly familiarity coupled with a decidedly firm hand on the tiller. It’s a very tricky combination to pull off.

  4. Luckydave,

    [Queensland must not be as weak for the ALP as the commentariat have insisted. ]

    I believe it certainly was, but has been turned around considerably since Kevin Rudd’s interview on ABC radio and his injection into the campaign as a “team player” desperate to prevent Tony Abbott getting his hands on the reins of power.

    I also believe that further movement back to Labor in Qld (especially in the marginals) will occur the closer we get to polling day.

    It’ll save me losing money on Labor to win Dawson & Herbert at least. Flynn I feel may cost me, but has moved in the right direction.

  5. Bruup Bruup, Bruup Bruup

    “YEF, Jooflya DullAARd.. mmchh, ahem, Joolya Dullard PM”

    “It’s Ton’. heyjuliassphinctersayswhat?”

    “What?”
    “heh, heh.”
    click.

  6. You know when the tory’s are in trouble and know deep down they are gone and Abbott is becoming Latham (late swing away) because the anger and the bile brims to the surface. You can alomst feel the bitterness and resentment coming through the keyboard. They start off rational and calm seeking opinions and ideas but when times go tough the true tory comes seething out. Isn’t that right Mick. What a muppet clinging to irrational views of betting markets that are inching away from you by the second. So little understanding of the political and betting market it is almost comical.

  7. *returns from encouraging dinner with well-informed RWLHs*

    I take back everything I said about that nice Mr Nielsen. I’m told there will be Newspoll this weekend too.

  8. I had a look at that 30 year you posted earlier – I maxed-out the chart to the late 70s…has been such a strong, consistent bull market for so long – more so than equities

    Laocoon. Look a bit before known turning points eg mid 2007. The yields of bonds dropped and the markets dropped with bonds (stocks normally in fact follow bonds yields, both at the top and bottom of business cycles).

    Look also when the markets fell over in april this year same thing.

    What is happening is that people have been putting money into bonds (safety) because they think markets are going down. They drive the price up which drives the yield down. (remember bond prices and yields are the opposite).

    Exactly the same thing this week with markets dropping sharply. Just have to see what happens. I will be looking for a rally around October – the *golden 15 months* based on the US 4 year cycle.

  9. [The sad thing is Labor’s mad right will feel vindicated. Oh well back to watching the fun in the Liberal party. 80+ to labor.]
    You would prefer to see vindication of the Liberals far right?

  10. [Hey pinky, in the very mortal words of Lord Keating, you are ‘all tip and no iceberg’ :)]

    While we’re quoting Keating: You wouldn’t know you boxhead. You’re flat out counting past 10.

  12. Re “Labor’s mad right feeling vindicated”, I think they have had an almighty fright during the past fortnight or so — one they won’t forget too easily, even with the triumph of victory.

  14. A few points.

    I’d rather have this Nielsen poll than the one we had a couple of weeks ago.
    Labor hasn’t won anything yet as I think these results show that the support can change quickly for both sides.
    Let’s keep finger crossed that there are no major leeks/disasters for Labor in the next week
    At least I will be more relaxed watching Lateline tonight.

    But as the Italians say É troppo presto per cantar vittoria.

  15. Thats the equation for me – who do i dislike the most, and its always gotta be the liberals by a mile. But it’ll be a hollow victory

  17. [Mick Wilkinson
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:57 pm | Permalink
    Pinko

    hmmmmm, shift at the nut factory must have finished.

    Nah mate. Hate factories, too many smelly Union types with XYY Chromosomes.

    How are you going this fine evening, all those fine, naive socialist ideals keeping you happy?]

    Is this th modern Liberal campaign style? I wonder what demographic it’s aimed at, clearly they are not trying to pick up the votes of anybody with any felling of self worth.

    I hope the Labor mad right don’t follow with “vote for us you moron” ads.

  21. Mike

    [My point is that the seat by seat markets are far too early to rely on. There will be a rush of polls and “inside” info in the last week and more money will come for individual seats then compared to what has been wagered so far… your argument makes a lot of sense though in terms of the overall “who will win” market… which has shown a significant shortening towards labor on the back of the weight of money.. .so yes you are right… the markets do know….. but it is a massive assumption to make a call on the overall election based on aggregating very small individual seat markets until Saturday next week]

    Hell. Maybe you are my ‘yang’! Some common sense!!!

    You are absolutely correct and I thoroughly agree with you. That is why, last night, I just pointed out only what the markets were saying (thus I began with ‘current update’). Who knows what they will be in a week. However, Pinko won’t find what he is looking for (maybe she or he could sing a song about it?) because last time the seat markets predicted a Labor win from two weeks out and just loosened as Labor slid in.

    I just think it is funny the way these guys carry on so superstitiously, nay, religiously, as if each poll was auguring victory for the ALP, when the most reliable indicators suggested that it was still anyone’s game.

    If pressed, I’d have to say I think Labor had a reasonable chance of scraping over the line, since some seats are starting to settle a bit.

  23. It is a good single poll for labor but all points re their ability to shoot themselves in the foot are spot on…. personally because I have had an axe to grind about it I think the NBN has made the difference… and Abbott’s lack of a tech head… as a business owner who has lived in regional Qld and is still “relatively” young I buy into its importance big time and if labor want to win they just need to keep hitting the airwaves on this … (no one cares if labor say the libs financials are 8 trillion out because they don’t trust labor on the economy)…. but when they say they will put great infrastructure in for the future people can buy into it…

  25. [Psephos
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 10:03 pm | Permalink
    The sad thing is Labor’s mad right will feel vindicated.

    We do indeed.]

    LOL

    Ya, but it still sucks.

  28. [ Hey pinky, in the very mortal words of Lord Keating, you are ‘all tip and no iceberg’

    While we’re quoting Keating: You wouldn’t know you boxhead. You’re flat out counting past 10. ]

    -surely the most apt Keating quote is “a beautiful set of numbers”?

  30. I still think its a little early to reveal my final predictions

    In 2007 I over estimated the ALP result by about ten seats for I followed the swing of the polls. This time I will be looking more at the historical results as well as the polling, hopefully this will have me closer to the correct result.

  32. I’m not getting to excited just yet, I seem to remember Nielsens election eve poll getting it badly wrong in 2007 and overestimating the Labor 2pp by 4 percent.I hope newspoll and galaxy back this poll up then I can truly relax again.

  34. [ The sad thing is Labor’s mad right will feel vindicated.

    We do indeed.]

    Is it not a bit of an oxymoron to call Labors right wing ‘mad’, as they would, in the scheme of things closer to the political centre than the ‘left’ given that the ALP is a centre left party? Its a bit like calling Hockey/Turnbull side of the Liberals the ‘mad moderates’. Doesn’t really work…

  35. fredn

    Hey sheep! Yeah you!! Wake up!!!

    For the 237th time. I’m not a Lib and I definitely won’t be voting coalition in this election.

    Take the blinkers off, unless of course you can’t function without them.. 🙂

  37. Laocoon. Try this

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^TYX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^GSPC&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

    Bonds lead the turndown

    and

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^TNX&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
    (this is the ten year – turns down in mid july 2007)

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^GSPC&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
    (this is the SP500 – turns down in mid October 2007)

    Its reasonably clear on the above but a lot more clear on my charting software using daily charts.

  40. [It’s Time
    ……
    You would prefer to see vindication of the Liberals far right?]

    I would have been seriously cross if Labor had of lost this, would have joined the Labor party just so i could use my baseball bat of those responsible. Abbott is a absolute disaster, Hawk summed it up “he is as mad as a cut snake”.

  41. paddy2 back at 1028 on the last thread:

    Foley isn’t being @holed – he wants to go at his time – and that will be soonish

    Sorry took so long, had to do some shopping, cook dinner, eat it and do the dishes and even cleaned the fridge. Us independents don’t have backbenchers to do it for us.

    So, Psephos, pray tell!

  43. [These created the sort of turbulence that made it very, very difficult for Gillard.

    When Gillard gets clear air, she trashes Abbott.]

    Yup, thats why i would be expecting something leakish this weekend. If the forces of evil and darkness can muddy things up just prior to the ALP launch, then they will do it to try and get the MSM talking about something “scandalous” rather than report anything positive.

    The Fibs have so far gone with an almost entirley negative and in some cases non-sensical campaign. Where they have tried to go “positive” its been completely implausible stuff like “Julie Bishop WILL be our FM and that is a good thing!!”

    They will have more of the heavily negative stuff, and in the end will fall back on xenophobia / boats, sad cases that they are.

  44. I think the NBN, but also, the labor ads are pretty devastating. Pinning abbott on workchoices and then exposing what a dill he is on economics.

    All the liberal debt blather has gotta be counterproductive since it just makes people fear the round of cuts that inevitably will follow. The debt fetish is such among the political class that i think they forget that your average joe isn’t necessarily so obsessed with it. Particularly when most people are aware that our debt is insignificant by world standards.

  45. [fredn

    Hey sheep! Yeah you!! Wake up!!!

    For the 237th time. I’m not a Lib and I definitely won’t be voting coalition in this election.

    Take the blinkers off, unless of course you can’t function without them.. 🙂 ]

    There you go, Citizens Electoral Council voter….

  46. don’t think the right could feel ever feel vindicated for deposing rudd, for if rudd didn’t do what he did, labor would still be in deep doo-doo.

  49. If this reported Nielsen is correct then sort of condemens the last one which had a move from 54 to 48 for Labor.

    If you take that last Nielesen out of the mix Labor was in front, has stayed in front and continues to be in front.

  50. [Mick Wilkinson
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 10:09 pm | Permalink
    fredn

    ….random rant….]

    Hi Mick, you really should consider taking the lithium.

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