Newspoll: 52-48, Galaxy: 51-49 – to Labor

UPDATE Delightfully, Galaxy has now come good with an identical set of primary vote figures to Newspoll. They have nonetheless come to a 51-49 two-party split rather than the 52-48 from Newspoll, which can only have resulted from their calculation landing a fraction either side of 51.5-48.5. The 1700 sample from Newspoll and the 800 (I presume) sample from Galaxy can be combined to achieve a super-sample of 2500 and an unusually low margin of error of 2 per cent. Galaxy also finds “only 43 per cent of voters believe he is up to the top job and 48 per cent have major reservations”, suggesting Labor’s late campaign attack ads might find a receptive audience.

GhostWhoVotes tweets that Newspoll gives Labor a morale-boosting 52-48 two-party lead from primary votes of 38 per cent for Labor, 42 per cent for the Coalition and 13 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard is up a point on both approval and disapproval, to 42 per cent and 40 per cent, while Tony Abbott has gone backwards: approval down three to 41 per cent, disapproval up three to 41-49. Preferred prime minister is essentially unchanged, Gillard and Abbott both down one to 49 per cent and 34 per cent. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full Newspoll report here. A question of strength of voting intention finds no distinction between the two parties, contrary to earlier polls which found the Coalition vote slightly firmer. Labor’s lead as party expected to win has narrowed over a week from 56-23 to 50-26.

UPDATE 2: The Canberra Times reports a survey conducted for the Greens credited to YourSource (the panel used by Essential Research) has the Senate vote in the Australian Capital Territory at 36 per cent for Labor (down 5 per cent on the election), 30 per cent for the Coalition (down 4 per cent) and 26 per cent for the Greens (up 4.5 per cent). If accurate, the Greens would probably just fall short of taking the second seat from Liberal Senator Gary Humphries.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,115 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48, Galaxy: 51-49 – to Labor”

Comments Page 12 of 23
1 … 11 12 13 … 23

  1. Rad

    jsut as a heads up

    awhile ago those of both labor and greens agred to truce

    Contentious issues

    ie the filter etc were persona non gratia

    The common foe is the fibs

    all else is irrelevant

  6. Was it GG that suggested the southern states were very happy with Julia? If a pro-Labor swing is on in SA, I want Sturt (and Pyne).

    In deference to Glen, I’d happily spare Bilson in Dunkley. I agree he is a decent bloke, somehow spared the right-wing purge. Judith Brett is right that the Libs in Victoria had a fine decent tradition which somehow did not survive the Howard-Peacock Wars.

    Quite likely Cheeseman will hang on in Corangamite, which brings me to Joseph Heller’s ‘Catch-22’ discussed recently. There’s a line there about an abortive attempt by Col Kathcart to demote Major Major:”This army’s only got one Major Major Major and we’re not giving him up for anything.” To paraphrase, “The dairy industry has only one Cheeseman as an electorate representtive, and we’re not letting him go.”

    NSW and Qld were the troubled ones and I hope that Kevin Mark II can help restore confidence there. Gee, I’d love to take Cook (and Morrison). But guess we’ll have to wait for a bit more movement.

  7. I think Big Dirt are having a hard time finding many sympathiesers when prices for coal and ore are going through the roof.

    I do think the MRRT is a better compromise than the RSPT given there was probably a few loopholes that could allow miners to exploit losses.

  9. Radguy

    when you make such incorrect posts about mining tax regimes pre June 2010 , RSPT and MRMT making a fool of yourself , dont blame messenger

    my #533 simply exposed your one liners for what they were , crap , prob posted by a teenager

  13. Frank, Abbott is so much like Bush.

    I am gonna crack it if someone here has to write a “Dude where’s my country” sequel.

  14. Gusface Plz feel welcome to call me Puff for short 🙂
    [Do you live by the sea, in a land called gallilee]

    Of course, except it is called Honalee. 🙂 And to prove there are still some decent people around on the planet here is the wiki link on the song’s history, read down to the bit on the royalties. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Puff,_the_Magic_Dragon

    As well as Puff tmd, my other favourite childhood poem was Odgen Nash’s Custard the Cowardly Dragon. I didn’t know at the time there was a connection.

    This dragon wishes she could toast Tone’s Test!@!s to charcoal but alas, dragons are sworn to non-violence.

  15. @Frank, ‘There Will Be Blood’ is a GREAT movie.

    But its a little bit anti-capitalist, especially for a Newscorp journo.

  16. Radguy
    Posted Monday, August 9, 2010 at 1:24 am | Permalink

    “What did I say about the pre 2010 tax regime?”

    that is point , you do not know diff between pre June miners tax , vs RSPT , v what they got under MRMT an so making your original comments foolish about small miners , apart from your ‘welfare’ bleet for miners

    As for bilionaire Ziggy , who misses , no sympathy for him either

  17. Fulvio Sammut

    [We got a lot of rocks here you can carve your fancy words into.]
    Words? Who gave you words? Dangerous things to hand around to just anyone, is words.

  18. Puff – True artists will only take credit for their own work.

    My favorite childrens book is still “Johnny’s Dragon”.

  22. Singo ought to rack off. With Abbott saying nothing but nothing and still 15% behind Gillard after all the trouble this week I would say his exuberant joy if over rated.

    Honest to god, his only policy is to break the frigging law again by going back to punishing refugees.

  23. Nasty anti Labor advert from Singo

    He’s an advertiser, completely for sale. I wouldn’t even accuse him of corruption, his business is legitimised corruption.

    No one will take this dweeb’s opinion with any amount of coercion.

  24. Radguy
    Posted Monday, August 9, 2010 at 1:24 am | Permalink

    “What did I say about the pre 2010 tax regime?”

    that is point , you do not know diff between pre June miners tax , vs RSPT , v what they got under MRMT an so making your original comments foolish about small miners , apart from your ‘welfare’ bleet for miners

    Now Radguy if you want to retro try to explain diff , go rite ahead

    (As for bilionaire Ziggy , who misses , no sympathy for him either and nor do any Miners who had 100 million war chest to destroy Labor , and did start th process with National TV adds WITH small miners contributions and you come here defending miners

  26. Ron, do you know how many people lurk here? Let me tell you, it is a lot.

    Most people respect my opinion here, even if they don’t agree with it.

    Why must you be so unaware of our new culture?

    How do you think you look?

  28. here is your post in full

    “Radguy
    Posted Monday, August 9, 2010 at 12:16 am | Permalink

    GF – what concerns me is the MINING deal. Seems to me that we might have brought in more than we bargained for with bi11idung.

    I am worried about their relationship WITH THE ALP.

    I DON’T like the way that the smaller and probably (not sure) australian owned and operated miners had NO SAY.

    These guys would probably wear the tax (???) if their was a little more WELFARE for them when times get TOUGH. This is what the commonwealth is ALL about.

    Another reason for green.”

    then posters can read my #533 , and form a view on what was ACTUALY said by you

    SNIP: Deleted for abuse – The Management.

  29. Ron 🙂 How I think it will go down.
    [you do not know diff between pre June miners tax , vs RSPT , v what they got under MRMT]

    I know damn all about mining or mining taxes. I am an average punter on this.

    I know da stuff is in da ground and companies pay royalties to dig it up, they pay company tax like others businesses, but still sell OUR goodies for heaps and heaps and heaps ‘er dosh. And I know da mining head honchos fly about in swanky private jets and float about on huge yachts.

    Also there is this stimulus money to be paid back (coz guv debt be VERY BAD, tone told me so!) Should da money come out of my pocket or will we tell da mining companies to give us a 40% cut on da profits or else buggar off to Dear Despot’s Glorious Republic of Upper Tinganmania to dig amongst da mud, sludge and leeches?

    There might even be some left for me to get a tax break or a handout or something.

    OK then, them or me? :0

  30. You’re clearly on the miners side Ron.

    That is why no one agrees with you.

    I am on everyone’s and no-one’s side.

    I swing and try to be productive.

    Here you go, an answer for you.

    Miners pay more tax when they have large profits under the Rudd scheme. I don’t know what Ferguson rushed out, all I know is that is favoured large international corporate interests, and I don’t like it.

    If you think the average person knows more than me, I think that you would be mistaken. It is not a big issue for the average person, and I think that the average person can see that a large mining tax will favour most Aussies.

  31. Would love to hear any news from Scorpio on how he’s going in drumming up support in country Queensland. Somewhat better news this week with the return of Kevin I’d expect.

  32. This is what Ron says @533

    “Radguy

    “don’t like the way that the smaller and probably (not sure) australian owned and operated miners had no say. These guys would probably wear the tax if their was a little more WELFARE for them when times get tough”

    4 errors
    welfare ?not applys to Mining companies , they’re a market company just like any other

    tax ? do you know what Super Profits tax small miners were to pay under RSPT , well better still do you know what and how a Supa Tax was to be calcd

    Small miners no say ? they had a say privately , and RSPT helped them , but they chose publicly to say nothing and allow big coal to slam Labor

    tax treatment of losses ? do you know what benefits they did not hav but could then get under RSPT ? , now lost cause they cynically shut up when Labor gt mauled

    you like all Greens talk one liner crap”

    And the majors don’t?

  33. So Ron, would you give welfare to a small mining start up co if they found small amounts of coltan but couldn’t get bank or other finance?

    I say give em a go.

  34. Radguy 🙂

    re singo, I wonder what it is with this campaign that has all the wacky dinosaurs of elections past are emerging from the rotten woodwork?

  35. Exploration means that we can find better spots for mines with more choice.

    I remind you that BHP built a train line and wouldn’t let the smaller miners use it.

    Very bad for our countries interests. So much for the big australian.

  37. I am so sick of these fibby baby-boomers. Do they realise that when they can’t look after themselves, it will be lefty nurse assistants wiping their buts. I used to reside at an aged care home and I have seen all sorts of ways that people decline.

    If the older generation wants good aged care, they had better not vote for fibs. We won’t forgive them.

  40. shepherdmarilyn
    I just looked up Nauru on google earth. i knew it was out in the sea somewhere, I never knew it was THAT small or THAT far away. I had a mental picture of a island somewhere near a lot of other islands not far from us. (Geography not my strongest point.)

    How the hell do they get all the public servants, doctors, nurses, lawyers etc needed to process asylum seekers, or give them health care etc, there? A fleet of planes? That aerodrome looks unable to cope with a kite.

    I hear the Libs sent Morrision there today to check things out. The best thing was they never said anything about him coming back.

    I think if Nauru is good enough for refugee claimants, it is good enough for Howard to be exiled, er, retired to.

  42. Radguy, I am not getting in between you two, notice the :)s; that debate is not one where I know much; but that is how I think the average person (and I too. oops, damned superiority complex gettin’ outa hand again) will see it.

  43. SNIP: Deleted for abuse – The Management.

    Cardinal Pell’s entry into Electon brought unjustified adverse coments on PB , and for disengenuois anti God reasons

    Catholic Church like any organization that does good in iour society corrctly gets benefits tax wise etc , and so they should

    According to latest reput Pollster with proper samples , 82% of aussies regard them selves AS “culterally christian” (8% do not know) , so Govt assistance to Churchs that in fact do good is consistent anyway to Aussies views So extreme God haters barking up wrong trees

    However I’m disapointed exteme Groups like Hillstop and Exclusive Bretheren get help , and I always wonder why even Senate can not inquiry/persue Exclusive Bretheren over just specific there treatment of separation of Familys and osterization when one family member leaves there Exclusive Brethern , (for which I think freedom of religion would not cover hem as a defense at all)

    But Pells’s entry into actual partisan politcs is also wrong I think , and quite along way in error I do not see anything in ANY of th Partys actual polisys that can warrant in any way even th toxic W/C to justify a theologocal objection , and thus he is going beyongd his ‘hat’ This is same as Ricky Ponting Aussie cricket Captain whilst still Aussie Captain Captin saying publicly well I reckon Tony Abbott has best issues position so he should be voted for

    There is a good reason why religion and State is separated , and most basic of all is rligion or indeed atheism is a personal private matter that religion should not influense a flock on , where as Politics is a public matter and debated public and openly

  45. I’m hearing some quite positive news from Sturt and Boothby, pity they are the only possible gains in S.A, as Julia is very popular here.

  46. Frank Calabrese. (I should be asleep, eyelids heavy)
    [Michael Kroger on the Kool-aid. “the awkwardly stage-managed meeting between Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd did remind me, if just for a moment, of the last photo opportunity involving Elena and Nicolae Ceausescu.”]

    That is one low-down douche-bag comparison to make.

    Ceausescu caused the suffering and deaths of countless people in Romania through what probably would be today charged as crimes against humanity and along with his wife got executed by firing squad when the people got sick of starving to death. To use this reference in a (relatively so) small-fry political contest in a rich, stable, open, democratic, country like Australia is unconscionable. The man is a grub.

  47. I would like to see a bit more about Stephen Mayne. I think that he can represent aussie business far better than the fibs. I would even consider giving him number 2 after green if the ALP don’t drop the filter. I like the guy, and I assume that he would be against the filter. I can’t see much on his site though.

    I reckon nice libs will put Mayney number 1 if they remember his name, and so they should!

  48. Ron re Pell.
    Good point. Pell should keep the preaching for the pulpit and his “hat’ out of the political ring.

  50. http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/stiglitz128/English

    [CANBERRA – The Great Recession of 2008 reached the farthest corners of the earth. Here in Australia, they refer to it as the GFC – the global financial crisis.

    Kevin Rudd, who was prime minister when the crisis struck, put in place one of the best-designed Keynesian stimulus packages of any country in the world. He realized that it was important to act early, with money that would be spent quickly, but that there was a risk that the crisis would not be over soon. So the first part of the stimulus was cash grants, followed by investments, which would take longer to put into place.

    Rudd’s stimulus worked: Australia had the shortest and shallowest of recessions of the advanced industrial countries.]

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 12 of 23
1 … 11 12 13 … 23