UPDATE Delightfully, Galaxy has now come good with an identical set of primary vote figures to Newspoll. They have nonetheless come to a 51-49 two-party split rather than the 52-48 from Newspoll, which can only have resulted from their calculation landing a fraction either side of 51.5-48.5. The 1700 sample from Newspoll and the 800 (I presume) sample from Galaxy can be combined to achieve a super-sample of 2500 and an unusually low margin of error of 2 per cent. Galaxy also finds “only 43 per cent of voters believe he is up to the top job and 48 per cent have major reservations”, suggesting Labor’s late campaign attack ads might find a receptive audience.
GhostWhoVotes tweets that Newspoll gives Labor a morale-boosting 52-48 two-party lead from primary votes of 38 per cent for Labor, 42 per cent for the Coalition and 13 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard is up a point on both approval and disapproval, to 42 per cent and 40 per cent, while Tony Abbott has gone backwards: approval down three to 41 per cent, disapproval up three to 41-49. Preferred prime minister is essentially unchanged, Gillard and Abbott both down one to 49 per cent and 34 per cent. More to follow.
UPDATE: Full Newspoll report here. A question of strength of voting intention finds no distinction between the two parties, contrary to earlier polls which found the Coalition vote slightly firmer. Labor’s lead as party expected to win has narrowed over a week from 56-23 to 50-26.
UPDATE 2: The Canberra Times reports a survey conducted for the Greens credited to YourSource (the panel used by Essential Research) has the Senate vote in the Australian Capital Territory at 36 per cent for Labor (down 5 per cent on the election), 30 per cent for the Coalition (down 4 per cent) and 26 per cent for the Greens (up 4.5 per cent). If accurate, the Greens would probably just fall short of taking the second seat from Liberal Senator Gary Humphries.
Lukey, thanx for the news. I am seeing if I can help out somehow where needed. I assume Pyne won’t be dislodged but maybe a few letter drops might help.
The Australian are clueless. I predict some serious DNS attacks on them before the end. LOL
I suspect that when aussies realise the class that Jules and Kev have shown through all of this, they will be very proud, providing the real Jules comes with no strings attached.
And we greens will take the fall for the hard stuff. You’re welcome.
The opposition has dropped the filter. You can’t let votes bleed away on this one.
From the BBC……
[Climate change talks ‘backslide’ at Bonn
Smoke from coal-powered power plant on the outskirts of Linfen, in China’s Shanxi province – 8 Dec 2009 Developing countries have promised to slow the growth of greenhouse gas emissions
Global climate change talks have moved backwards since last year, say negotiators from both rich and poor nations at discussions in Germany.
The US envoy said some countries had “walked away” from commitments made at Copenhagen last year to contain greenhouse gas emissions.
But the top UN climate official, Christiana Figueres, said progress had been made towards an eventual deal.
Negotiators are working towards the next climate summit in November.
There is one last preparatory meeting, in Tianjin, China, in October, to draft a negotiating text before the summit in Cancun, Mexico.
“At this point, I am very concerned,” said chief US negotiator Jonathan Pershing at the conclusion of a week of talks in Bonn.
“Unfortunately, what we have seen over and over this week is that some countries are walking back from progress made in Copenhagen, and what was agreed there.”
Mr Pershing said some of the major developing countries were backing away from commitments to slow the growth of their greenhouse gas emissions, saying such controls should only apply to industrialised countries.]
Briefly – Rudd knew how to work with the boffins. Pity he wasn’t allowed to work with anyone else.
Abbott really can’t get away with the worst gov line. His was, and most people saw it that way by the end.
Things could be worse and would be with Howard still PM (shudder).
Actually, that is a great campaign theme.
What would that look like?
Massive war efforts, and everything else revolting.
Dunno briefly. I can’t see NSW marginals wanting to give anything up. Imagining myself in Rudd’s shoes. I think that he did want to do something more about climate change, but the cowards were too scared of losing their seats for the greater good.
Does that sound logical?
The greens quite rightly threw back the compromised plan.
Speaking of the Rooty Hill RSL and the Tony & Julia Show – will this be the warm up act ? 🙂
(Scroll down to the mp3 download) 🙂
http://tommixmusic.blogspot.com/2009/06/download-no222-rooty-hill-rsl-club-band.html
You gotta feel some sympathy for Julia. She is going through all this crap of an election campaign – just to be spat out in 18 months time.
And while the most extraordinary thing about it is that Gillard still has a good chance of winning, nothing will save the machine men who have plumbed Labor to new depths of shallowness and ineptitude.
On the Right path to political oblivion
I would need to be convinced of that. They have been extra-ordinarily successful at clinging to power in NSW. Hard to see them losing it at a federal level.
Just tuned into abc radio national, Fran Kelly hasn’t changed and introed the morning with all the lows were Labor’s over the weekend after quoting the Tories and spruiking a prime minister was born on the weekend, truly nauseating stuff and plain wrong!!!! Now living in the UK I can’t believe that Abbott is a serious contender.
And as for Grattan, time to be sent to pasture.
Radio National intro at 6:00 am from Fran and Michelle (at Brisbane Airport) was unabashed cheerleading for Coalition. Abbott looked prime ministerial…labor PV still too low…Rudd meeting backfired…moderate Coalition spending proposals…plan for government…oh, but Latham was not a good look.
Fair dinkum, I’ve listened to 3AR/Radio National for info. and analysis and stimulation for 35 years, and during the Howard era I fretted about what I could do, as an English/Media teacher, to stay informed, if the Coalition axed it.
Following a promo for Q&A, Fran quips (yes, quips): “Prime Minister under pressure taking that on in the middle of a campaign, you’d have to think.”
I couldn’t hear it, but I know there had to be a guffaw there somewhere.
A bit snippy there William on the last page. I didn’t swear did I? (Excluding my ron quote).
Am I not able to defend myself?
Or are you making an excellent point for internet freedom?
a wonderful friend that i have she knows who she is sent me an email
as i could look here. We labor people are so good to each other.
and for gg and a few other is was Mary Mckillpps feast day yesterday
thank to big ship and poss who kept us strong god bless u all
[While on the Catholic vote, I am not sure if you guys saw the cheers Jules received when she announced the ALP would be providing $1.5Million dollars towards people travelling to the Mary MacKillop canonisation.]
i didnt know that gee mary must want me to go No just joking she means its the nuns u see you dont have to sit in a church to be special
get that tone
give kelly a ring and tell her she not dreaming that these polls are real
i cannot see anything going backwards now we have to just build and build and buld
to make then unelectable for at least a generation
Morning Bludgers.
Heartily cheered by this morning’s poll news 😀
Unlike others on here, I am perfectly relaxed about Labor having a primary vote of 39%. As we know, the more crucial number is the Coalition’s primary vote: unless it is over 44% (well, unless there is a One Nation scenario) then they can’t win.
Looking at everything; combined ALP/Green primary, satisfaction/dissatisfaction ratings and preferred prime minister – nothing in here suggests the Coalition are on track for a win.
It woud be interesting to do a bit of “after the fact” polling in a few weeks to find out where the votes have swung from and why. My money’s on the return of Kevin07 and growing concerns about Abbott PM.
Abbott:
[“By sandbagging marginal seats, the government will try to chisel its way to a dishonourable victory, like the South Australian and Tasmanian Labor governments did earlier this year.”]
What nonsense. He fails to mention the Coalition tried this in 2007 and managed it in 1998.
[If the older generation wants good aged care, they had better not vote for fibs. We won’t forgive them.]
spot checks left with the liberals came back with labor
and howie was starting to talk about us selling our home we wanted to go to one of
the nursing homes who knows what they would do to us
O and retire at 70 thats one of his wishes for us to work for pittence with workchoices
die on the job
Looks like Julia’s policies on teenagers in school and working pensioners have hit home.
just woke up to newspoll and galaxy ,nightmare over
Good morning everyone.
Well, feeling better now, a lot of emotional baggage wasted over the weekend heh.
I reckon Julia is the main factor, she is looking more and more Presidential and genuine, also I think the Latham factor has helped a little bit, re: Julia’s integrity in dealing with him.
I haven’t read the posts but no doubt quite a few of you credit Rudd, but I think that would be disingenuous to Julia, and personally I just don’t see it, virtually everyone I know who is remotely interested in politics can’t stand him. But if he is a factor I think it’s because he’s no longer leader.
Insulation thing – no good deed goes unpunished.
I like this news. Bring more like this.
Still a dicey situation for Labor. The 2pp is only an estimate. Primary vote is damn low for an incumbent.
Julia’s had the kitchen sink, empty fruit bowls and ch9 fake journo’s thrown at her plus the intense media scrutiny and she has come through it with flying colours. God they can’t say that she’ll fold under pressure, because she’s making it look easy.
Tony Abbott skirts under the media radar and still loses voters in the polls. Its good but why the change? More Ads on economy? I haven’t notice anymore msm scrutiny.
Fran Kelly and Michelle Gratten still doing their bit for the Liberals – Fran badly wants a job with News Ltd. 🙂
[God they can’t say that she’ll fold under pressure, because she’s making it look easy]
I wouldn’t go that far. The campaign has still been a big mess.
[Tony Abbott skirts under the media radar and still loses voters in the polls]
It’s within the margin of error.
Matthew Gordon 🙂
[workchoices, die on the job]
Having Howard on the job reinforces that Abbott will bring Workchoices back.
Abbott opposed the stimulus and said Workchoices was the answer to the GFC.
Abbott is now committed to stopping the stimulus measures if elected which leaves a return to Workchoices as his only option for the GFC which is still ongoing.
According to Fran Kelly Labor cannot win with a primary of 38. While 38 isn’t great, Labor could certainly win with that number thanks to the Greens.
Just saw this poll result and it was announced on Channel Nine this morning – hurray! Channel nine followed the news with a friendly cross to Abbott and some gentle questions to Tony (maate).
Labor, please stay on message (economy is OK, debt low, thanks to us) for the rest of the campaign, no distractions, and victory is in sight. I think it will improve from here; I presume this polling was done before Latham’s outburst, which will create sympathy for Gillard.
Fran Kelly declares 38% “not a winnable” primary vote, as though the 52% 2PP is either wrong or not important.
Fran Kelly pisses me off – she’d get a job on Radio Liberal.
Does the woman realise that the Radio National audience is a progressive one?
ltep
Nor didn’t I say that the campaign hasn’t been a mess, I was commenting on the amount of pressure she’s been under and she hasn’t broken aka latham circa 2004 and gone off with the loonies.
Mithrandir @ yeah The Greens vote has never been this high. To say “cannot win” is probably an exaggeration. But still, you can’t count on all the Greens vote, or most of the Other voters going exactly as they did in 2007. It’s really just an estimate.
I’d be happier if they were rating 40 as primary.
[Nasty anti Labor advert from Singo
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/media/vintage-adman-john-singleton-works-against-labor/story-e6frg996-1225902758957%5D
That first add showing people esp women being “whacked” could backfire against the libs.
Violence in a political campaign doesn’t go down well, it reinforces Abbott as another Latham bovver boy, brings back “Downers things that batter joke esp in light of the “to violence against women Australia says No” campaign.
Maybe Abbott can make a joke about that too.
[What nonsense. He fails to mention the Coalition tried this in 2007 and managed it in 1998.]
Yes, i thought that was a silly line from Abbott. Any party, whether they are in government or not will defend its marginal seats. There’s nothing dishonourable about that.
chinda63: I’m not getting too excited, there’s still a long way to go, and anything can happen from here. But I’m very, very pleased with the poll results.
[According to Fran Kelly Labor cannot win with a primary of 38. ]
Great, may scare more waverers who were thinking of lodging a safe protest vote with Abbott back to labor.
Abbott on AM: The ABC is doing all the work for the Liberals.
Abbott criticizes Labor’s campaign as “relentlessly negative” on AM, and Lyndal Curtis doesn’t point out the obvious comparison with his own campaign.
[I’d be happier if they were rating 40 as primary.
]
we can get that up just work on WORKCHOICES in the Marginals
This is what you get when the ABC employs ex-staffers from 2UE. 😀
[The week starts with a new Newspoll, which has Labor back in an election-winning lead. It’s perhaps a surprising result, given many commentators saw last week as a struggle for the Government.]
Well der ABC – many commentator got it wrong, how surprising. 😛
[634 Socrates
Posted Monday, August 9, 2010 at 7:56 am | Permalink
Just saw this poll result and it was announced on Channel Nine this morning – hurray! Channel nine followed the news with a friendly cross to Abbott and some gentle questions to Tony (maate).]
YES S STAY ON MESSAGE no chatting to rining ins. just posivite stuff
they will try to destruct you though just good policy talk when board AND LOTS OF LINKS
[It’s perhaps a surprising result, given many commentators saw last week as a struggle for the Government.]
What?! Last week was a very good week for the government.
Honestly, what election campaign are some of these so called insiders following?
Claims of stimulus waste were greatly exaggerated. From Ross Gittins
[Media reporting and opposition politicking have left many people with the impression much, if not most, and maybe even all of the billions spent on school buildings under the Rudd government’s stimulus package has been wasted.]
http://www.smh.com.au/business/claims-of-stimulus-waste-were-greatly-exaggerated-20100808-11qdj.html?rand=1281274662884
[we can get that up just work on WORKCHOICES in the Marginals]
I agree my say, it also needs to be pushed that Abbott is only one vote of controlling the senate until July 2011 and will have effective control for Workchoices should he swing Xenophon or an outgoing senator.
Unfortunately for labor if they get back in they will face the same obstructive senate to July 2011 that blocked, amended and delayed so much of their legislation. This will allow the libs and the media to run the same line until July 2011 that labor are do nothing.