Galaxy marginal seats poll; Nielsen 51-49 to Coalition

We learn via Channel Nine that Galaxy has conducted a poll of two marginal seats in New South Wales, Macarthur and Eden-Monaro, and two in Queensland, Bonner and Bowman. We are told only of a 2.8 per cent swing against Labor, which I’m guessing means a composite result of 51-49 in favour of the Coalition from the four seats in question, which collectively produced a Labor two-party vote of about 51.8 per cent in 2007. On the primary vote, Labor is said to be down six points to 39 per cent and the Coalition steady on 44 per cent. I await further elucidation. I also await Nielsen and Westpoll, which Possum advises us will be out later this evening.

UPDATE: Courtesy of the indispensible GhostWhoVotes, Nielsen has it at 51-49 in favour of the Coalition. More to follow.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

695 comments on “Galaxy marginal seats poll; Nielsen 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. [Obama, the Rudd of American electionland.]

    That’s a pretty apt description. Does that make Romney (Who I think the GOP will nominate in 2012) the Turnbull of American electionland?

  2. My Say

    I live in Eden Monaro. Kelly’s fine, as Pesphos points out. There is not a mood for change there.

    I said that we had to consolidate this weekend and not expect too many movements to us. Both polls, as silly as it sounds, are good for us in my view. It means Tha they are not getting away from us. The whole Rudd/Gillard thing will take some days to resonate.

    I am just slightly worried about the impact on the negative BER reporting on Newspoll. Monday will be a key day in my view.

  3. [595 Gusface
    Posted Friday, August 6, 2010 at 10:20 pm | Permalink
    centre

    to get to 1.75 btw the polls has to sink to 46*54

    IMO]

    \gus please dont confuse me with this i dont know what your talking about

    are you all having a dinner party

  4. Big Ship @ 580

    I know how you felt, as I cast a postal for Prez Obama, who this week justified my vote, yet again, with the Senate approving by 63-37 Elena Kagan, only the fourth female Justice of US Supreme Court.

  5. [Seven News update: An exclusive Morgan poll shows people’s religious beliefs MAY have an affect on who they vote for!]

    I mean seriously…

  6. TP

    Actually the momentum has swung back to Labor based on this poll. Last time it was at 48-52. Now 49-51. We will have a better picture next week. Very confident that Labor will improve from here.

    John Howard is not a member of parliament.
    Abbott is not in a safe pair of hands. Howard is not a member of the parliament. He is a former PM. Former being the operative word. Do not compare Howard helping Abbott to Rudd helping Gillard. Rudd holds a seat and is part of the govt, and he will be campaigning for his own seat as well as helping the party.

  7. For heavens sake forget about that loser Rudd, Julia is your only chance, all she has to do is put her hands down at interviews and not be so nice and condescending to the media pack. She needs a little bit more agro, not too much, just a little.

  8. my say

    the rabbott went for updates and some new whistles

    ratty delved into his bag of tricks and pulled out a few oldies jazzed up

    i fully expect

    Family values ie white picket fence

    Divided labor-they will hammer labor as indecisive and trying to pull acon job on the oz public

    Some sort of heffernan/robb/minchin potion of smear,prob JG but maybe kev

    all in all just another day at fib HQ

  9. my say

    the rabbott went for updates and some new whistles

    ratty delved into his bag of tricks and pulled out a few oldies jazzed up

    i fully expect

    Family values ie white picket fence

    Divided labor-they will hammer labor as indecisive and trying to pull acon job on the oz public

    Some sort of heffernan/robb/minchin potion of smear,prob JG but maybe kev

    all in all just another day at fib HQ

  10. Sorry In the know you must think i am very ignorant i did not know you where there

    as i said in franklyn to day if any thing on the ground is like this seat there would may be no worry.

    did you all see my post about my a c t u day

  11. This might have been noted earlier but Ashleigh Gillon of Sky News said earlier today that she had a “gut feeling” that Labor would win. I think she’s a cut above the
    average TV hack.

  12. I don’t think Rudd coming back in to the fore will have any impact. He was just ousted, it appears desperate to the average voter.

    I don’t think Howard coming back to support Abbott will have any impact. Even average voters know they are from the same party and of course Howard is going to support him.

    None of this by-play matters a pinch.

  13. TP – Howard did huge damage to the Libs by reminding everyone how far to the right the monk sits. Also, it was a huge tactical error because it created a comparison of
    Rudd V Howard, which Rudd cleans up every time.

    May Say – I hit rock bottom last Friday…I am feeling very optimistic for the ALP. tonnes of work to do but we are poised for a big comeback.

  14. Still neck and neck. Good to see the ALP improve on the last Nielsen Poll. It will be close in two weeks time. Go ALP!!

    LNP are absolute tools.

  15. I’ll say this: if Gillard gets re-elected, she’ll need to govern proactively to let voters know they made the right choice. Shake off your first term jitters and make your real mark!

  16. Very long time reader…since before 2007 election…first time poster….so be kind. I’m a fan of Bushfire Bills pronoucements generally…lol. Wanted to get the collective wisdom of all the bludgers on the following:

    It would appear to me that the ALP have around 61 safe seats drawn at the line of Hindmarsh on the pendulum…Ahead of that line we might also add Kingston, Franklin, Braddon, Eden Monaro, Deakin and Corangamite to bring the total to 67. This means that the ALP need to find 9 more out of the following: Brisbane, Bonner, Petrie, Leichhardt, Dobell, Forde, Dawson, Page, Flynn, Longman, Bennelong, Bass Hasluck, Dickson, Mcarthur, Gilmore, Swan, Macquarie, Soloman, Robertson and Hebert and the LIB held marginals of Sturt, Bonython, Mcwen, La Trobe, Bowman, Hughes and Paterson.
    What I’m asking is to hear of any news from the bludgers concerning any knowledge or opinions on these seats and see where this election will be won or lost..

  17. [ live in Eden Monaro. Kelly’s fine, as Pesphos points out. There is not a mood for change there.]

    i really like that memeber and i dont know him of course but i hope he takes senator faulkners position

    yes i have this calm feeling thats it all up from here, i think we where just so used to have polls that where well apart. but there is essential also

  18. If Ashleigh Gillon says so, that is good by me. She is a lovely person and the smartest of that Sky News mob. Leaves Keiran Gilbert for dead.

    My say – don’t think u r ignorant at all. hard to keep up with these blogs!

  19. Mick Wilkinson @ 520

    [To have someone assess this atrocity as “necessary” to me is quite brutal and my close Japanese friends would concur.]

    You clearly have no knowledge, or appreciation of history. The Manhattan Project was a war weapon project just like many others undertaken by both the Axis and the Allies in WWII, indeed it was not even the most expensive of the war, being surpassed by the B29 Bomber project.

    To state that dropping the A-Bomb was somehow a racist act is not only historically incorrect, it does not make any sense. The A-Bomb would have been used against Germany (indeed it was developed because of the fear that the Germans would build one first) but the war in Europe finished a mere 2 months before the first successful test of the A-bomb.

    Whilst I agree that the use of the weapon was an horrific act, the alternative of a full scale invasion of the Japanese Home Islands would have resulted in the deaths of many thousands of Allied soldiers, sailors and airmen, and the Japanese would have suffered 100’s of thousands, perhaps millions of casualties, military and civilian, if the war had gone on into 1946.

    We now know the full effects of the horrors of nuclear war, but this could not have been known to those decision makers on both sides in 1945.

  20. [So the current 79 seats coalition to 68 Labor is as good as it gets?]

    Definitely not.

    It’s a competition, for sure, but it is still Gillard’s to lose.

  21. This week was Howard V Rudd and Rudd smashed the old fossil again. Rolling out Rudd was genius for the ALP and rolling out Howard was a tactical error for the Libs.

    TSoP : I am an infinitely happier camper tonight than I was a week ago. So on that basis it was a foundation week. Lots to do, but a big Labor comeback is brewing.

  22. [This might have been noted earlier but Ashleigh Gillon of Sky News said earlier today that she had a “gut feeling” that Labor would win. I think she’s a cut above the
    average TV hack.]

    I’ve the same gut feeling, and it will be Julia, not Rudd, not Abbott, (or the unhinged one) not incumbency or lack thereof, not no means no, not anything, basically not even policy, but a spark and a glint in her eye, I think when it comes down to the ballot box the females of Australia and the discerning males in particular won’t sacrifice the first eloquent female politician we’ve had.

  23. [TSoP : I am an infinitely happier camper tonight than I was a week ago. So on that basis it was a foundation week. Lots to do, but a big Labor comeback is brewing.]

    So am I! Last Friday was definitely the trough of the campaign in my view.

    It’s funny. Abbott probably could’ve finished off this week but he dropped the ball.

    He let a few quick runs slip through, or conceded a few goals or (what sport metaphor are we using?)

  24. Glory, I have to say I think how the electorate react to Julia and Kevin getting together will be more ‘substantial’ as a vote influencer than the things you grouped with it.

    The perception of disunity has been something the media has harped on. Their unity can add strength or have the opposite effect depending on how it is presented. The thing is, in the marginals in Qld, that could easily mean the difference between losing or holding.

  25. so steve is new is just then its like a parachute opens and they drop in to annoy us

    just ignore it 79/68 it is sounds good to me.

    but seriously if any of you are in the marginals do what i did today grab some actu sticker and pamphlets the young ones love to know you care about them and work choices i had some lovely happy dare i say bogans they where the salt of the earth and some lovely young ones in the supermarket i thought one was going to give me hug so you see they tell each other by the time i had left the one that was a bit iffy told me she would talk to her friend i explain to her that Julia would not have moved kevin over if all had been well she seemed surprised i think the penny dropped and she now likes julia so try it in your marginals it amazing how things spread

    to tired for spell check sorry

  26. [So the current 79 seats coalition to 68 Labor is as good as it gets?]

    I don’t think Labor will win any more than 80.

    But that’s just my call.

  27. The Big Ship @ 623

    Whilst I agree that the use of the weapon was an horrific act, the alternative of a full scale invasion of the Japanese Home Islands would have resulted in the deaths of many thousands of Allied soldiers, sailors and airmen, and the Japanese would have suffered 100’s of thousands, perhaps millions of casualties, military and civilian, if the war had gone on into 1946.

    Here’s a question I’ve always had: Why do people argue from the premise that this invasion of Japan have been necessary? What would have been wrong with just letting the Japanese govt alone? Might have caused fewer deaths.

  28. Luckydave

    I think you might be right there! I think Rudd will be a positive for the Labor campaign whilst Howard just reminds us what a pain he was. Anyway, how come he has come out of his shell now? Didn’t he say wtte that he wouldn’t be meddling in politics after losing in 2007. Or was that a non-core promise? Or is Hyacinth feeling left out?

  29. if one of you have face book one of the green voters i met told me to search in face book something like Reasons for NOT voting for abbott
    i would love to know whats there she said the list is getting longer so if any one find it tell us about it.

  30. [I am just slightly worried about the impact on the negative BER reporting on Newspoll. Monday will be a key day in my view.]

    Given that NSW DET has been singled out as the prime culprit for blown-out BER projects, the damage might be negligble.

    The good citizens of NSW are already waiting with sharp objects to immolate state Labor in March, so it’s not improbable that they won’t punish Gillard severely over this.

    Also, that sound-bite from the Lib saying Gillard is not even fit to be a minister is so overly nasty that it will lessen the negative impact on her.

    And, of course, the vast majority of school communities do appreciate getting their new libraries and assembly halls and couldn’t really give a rat’s arse what they cost the government.

  31. [Here’s a question I’ve always had: Why do people argue from the premise that this invasion of Japan have been necessary? What would have been wrong with just letting the Japanese govt alone? Might have caused fewer deaths.]

    Yeah right, why not leave Hitler alone as well.

  32. jenauthor – I’m not saying there isn’t a sign of unity. But I’ve been in touch with some friends who voted Labor in 2007 who haven’t decided yet, and the whole ‘real Julia’/Rudd coming back to save the day is turning them off significantly.

  33. [She needs a little bit more agro, not too much, just a little.]

    She was already today … if she starts with “with rspect, I don’t agree with the premise of your question …” she did this several times that I saw. She is losing patience with the press. Kevin’s presser yesterday showed he has lost it well and truly. And remember his warning about having a long memory … that applies to the past few weeks.

  34. my say

    I printed off quite a few of those posters from the Labor website and dropped them through letterboxes in my next door electorate (which is Lib) as well as my local Labor one. Every little helps and you sound like you’ve been doing sterling work in your part of Tassie. Good on you.

  35. I must be living in a parallel Universe, I seem to remember the ALP axing Rudd because he was going to lose them the election, da….

  36. Perahelion@636 well I would argue that Hitler was in control of a country that was at the centre of Europe, and could always cause trouble for the nations with whom he shared a common border. Therefore I can see the urgency of removing the fascist govt in Germany. Japan, however, is a collection of islands, with no common borders with anyone, and relatively little in the way of resources. I would have thought, if blockaded, it wouldn’t be able to get up to much trouble. Just trying to look at it from the perspective of the politicians who were making policy at the time. From their position, I can’t see why an invasion was desirable or necessary.

  37. [He let a few quick runs slip through, or conceded a few goals or (what sport metaphor are we using?)]

    Lost the rhythm, he’s done it before, led to false expectations as he found out eventually.

  38. [Ashleigh Gillon of Sky News said earlier today that she had a “gut feeling” that Labor would win. I think she’s a cut above the
    average TV hack.]

    Not so — he salivates orgasmically whenever she mentions Abbott.

  39. Anybody who is on the nuclear weapon discussion should watch this.

    http://www.ctbto.org/specials/1945-1998-by-isao-hashimoto/

    It’s apparently a couple of years old but it shows every nuclear detonation from the first nuclear test in 1945 (and the attacks on Japan) all the way to India and Pakistan’s efforts ending in 1998.

    It is a long animation and starts off slow in the beginning but then picks up. It’s tragic nonetheless.

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