Stuff in the papers

With just under half the campaign to go:

• George Megalogenis in The Australian accuses Labor of spending the first two weeks of the campaign pursuing “an imaginary centre position between young and old”, instead alienating the former by being too conservative. Megalogenis explains Labor’s poll decline among older voters in terms of the global financial crisis having “ended the party for baby boomers just when they thought they had made it to a prosperous retirement”, and says the fear of falling property prices in Queensland (not shared in Sydney and Melbourne) has united young and old voters in that state against Labor.

Milanda Rout of The Australian reports the Coalition is pessimistic about Labor’s two Victorian marginals, Deakin and Corangamite, and fears defeat not only in La Trobe and McEwen, but even in seemingly unassailable Aston (where sitting member Chris Pearce is retiring).

Sean Parnell of The Australian offers the interesting tidbit that the Queensland Liberal National Party “allowed the federal Liberal Party to fundraise almost exclusively in the state – including through the mining debate – to fill its depleted coffers and avoid Queensland’s tougher disclosure laws”. The Bligh government reduced the threshold for disclosing donations from $1500 to $1000 in June 2008. This was presumably in anticipation of the Rudd government’s proposal to cut the threshold from $10,000 (to which the Howard government had hiked it from $1500 in 2005) to $1000, which is yet to come to fruition.

• The Adelaide Advertiser has launched a crusade against Barnaby Joyce over his rejection of Penny Wong’s call for a live debate over the River Murray in Adelaide, which Joyce dismissed as “parochial”. Joyce protests there will be “nothing much to talk about” in the absence of the water allocation plan, which the Murray Darling Basin Authority has contentiously delayed releasing until after the election.

• Phillip Hudson of the Herald-Sun reckons “ALP insiders have not seen any immediate improvement in their stocks from the PM’s pledge to unleash the ‘real Julia’.”

• Possum runs Newspoll and Nielsen state breakdowns through his fantabulous contraption and finds Labor 79.4 per cent likely to win at least 74 seats, 71.4 per cent likely to win at least 75 and 62.2 per cent likely to win at least 76 (i.e. an absolute majority).

• Antony Green’s Senate calculators are open for business.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,872 comments on “Stuff in the papers”

  1. As I said, most politically aware young people I know are very bright (far brighter than some of their “advocates” claim.) They may hate the filter idea but they’re not idiots. They know that electing Tony Abbott means bringing in a bunch of social conservatives who will do worse than an internet filter, they also know it means kissing the NBN goodbye. They also know it’s not the only issue that matters.

    All this will do is maybe give the Greens and third parties a few more primary votes but if you think Abbott is going to benefit from it, you’re deluded. (While yes, anomalously, some will give Abbott their prefs, those voters will easily be cancelled out by concern parents who dislike the Coalition’s “libertarian” approach to this issue.)

  2. If you did a poll that asked “are you in favour of applying the same degree of censorship to sex and violence on the internet as applies on TV and in cinemas?”, you’d get a 70% yes vote, and 90% from parents. I’m aware that’s not really how the issue should be framed, but that is the political fact. if Hockey thinks otherwise he’s deluded.

  3. [Aaron’s is 100% correct from what I saw. And I agree Conroy should be fed to the sharks along with v his Australian Christian Lobby sponsors.]

    I agree JV, but, as a Labor supporter (which he obviously is), now is not the time to criticise your own. Abbott should be the current target of all criticism from those who wish for the return of the Gillard government. It’s Politics 101.

  4. [Ah yes the vital social-retards-with-no-life demographic. Do they come out of their dungeons to vote? Probably not, because the cyborgs might get them. ]

    Coming from a man of your tastes,habits and hobbies that has to be an attempt at humour right?

  5. Well I am dead against the filter,I don’t like censorship of any kind,but there is no way I would even think of voting for Abbott and the economically illiterate Liberal party.
    And they are hell bent on sending us back to the smoke signal stage with the scrapping of the NBN, it cant get here fast enough for me

  6. For the Naysayers:

    Annerley Labor Annerley_Labor

    Local ALP supporters are very happy with recent announcement of @KRuddMP There is already an increase in campaign volunteers. 3 minutes ago via web

  7. So a policy that is opposed by a small niche and an essay written by someone most people have never heard of are the two current issues which will “kill the government”?

    Wow, bringing the economy back into the spotlight and killing the Rudd issue has really removed a lot of the opposition’s ammo!

  8. I’d really love to know what proportion of the votes that are going to the Greens (then back to Labor) are protest votes over the filter. Any chance anyone will try to measure this?

  9. [I don’t believe in cyborgs.]

    Cyborg denial. *shakes head*

    Only the Greens accept the existence of cyborgs and have policies on how to deal with them! Vote 1 Greens!

  10. [Ah yes the vital social-retards-with-no-life demographic]
    @ psephos. A stereotype useful in B-grade movies, but so far from the truth. Have you ever been to a LAN night? Everyone turns up at the venue with their pc’s (truly, pc boxes under their arms), connects them up and play team or solo pc games all night. A LAN night can be a few friends but is commonly about 300 people. I have seen a LAN of 750 players. (Adelaide) Lots of social interaction, people from all social strata right through to professionals/business people. They are socially and politically aware, and spend lots of dosh.

    Luckily for Labor, the NBN trumps the filter/r18+. and the libs brainf@rt idea of dropping fibre NBN will cost them votes.

  11. [ Then you’re part of the 10%.]

    I’m a parent, work in the industry and understand the technical folly of this stupid policy and I wouldn’t vote for it either.

    [ I don’t believe in cyborgs. ]

    You got a mirror 😉

  12. @1811. I really don’t care. They can do like in the movie Face Off (face swapping) and I will still vote for a government that for the most part is giving me good governance, sensible policy and the NBN.

  13. David @ 1598: Abbott would be the weirdest Australian leader since Evatt, without the genius. He is torn between dreams of potency, sexual and political, and his codes of catholicism. He would be a psychologists nirvana but a strange bird as a PM, sans doute. To say however that those who shiver at Abbott as PM want the Labor Party in its current form in power is to confuse the question.

    One doesn’t have to be a Green to marvel at the sight of one Labor PM losing credibility by welshing on his commitment to the ‘great moral challenge, then another doing the same. Adam/Psephos reminds us that Labor was pincered on this issue, once Turnbull’s bipartisanship was usurped. Labor supposedly discovered that people wanted costless climate change action. That analysis has no support in any published polling. It is also besides the point: it assumes that the outsourcing of Labor’s left to the Greens is costless because of compulsory preferential voting. But forgets that the all-important, apolitical, ‘swinging’ voter might just take her cues from party consistency. None of this is to suggest that Abbott is some conviction politician reincarnating BA Santamaria. Quite the opposite: Labor for six retrograde months now has lost its ability to take a small risk for a larger gain, by hammering Abbott on his flip-flops: AGw is ‘crap’ and ETS is a BNT, but ‘Turnbull was right’ and ‘Howard was right’ to support an ETS, oh and here’s a direct action programme. Ditto on immigration and the stimulus, the ALP became spineless about defending their government-is-good credentials. All they were left with is re-heated leftovers, of which the anti-workchoices kick-off to the campaign was exhibit A. I teach labour law and know the iniquities of the 2005 Act. But I also know how little say young people even know or care of that aberration: you won’t make IR an election issue through a few ads, it was put to bed by Gillard circa 2009.

    Forgive the long post.

    ps I notice one sees little of the epithet ‘phoney Tony’ these days: between Gillard and Rudd as PMs we have had a masterclass in phoniness.

  14. 1802: True, that’s why the announcement was made rather informally and on triple j. No fanfare or big presser. Just enough to get it out there so the news would do the rounds amongst those who care.

    I’m strongly against the filter, but it would have resonated amongst many parents. That’s why the government stuck with it.

  15. “are you in favour of applying the same degree of censorship to (Child) sex and (Terrorist type) violence on the internet as applies on TV and in cinemas?”,

    not a bad line for Julia in a presser
    why aint we speech writers

  16. [So a policy that is opposed by a small niche and an essay written by someone most people have never heard of are the two current issues which will “kill the government”?]

    No. It’s the endless stream of small issues like these which bring it closer to death’s door.

    By the way Pebbles, when is the next reputable poll due and what is your prediction? If my memory serves me correctly, you accurately predicted the recent 50-50.

  17. @1809, that really presents a moral problem for me. Thanks the the filter I might consider voting green first, the labor. But the Greens have behaved really really badly. And the worst part was voting for a Senate Committee on climate change that merely served as a forum for giving publicity to climate deniers – frauds like Ian Plimer for instance.

    So, I’m probably going to go Sex Party.. Pirate party.. any other progressive party I can find then Green then Labor.. (then the Tories and then the raving lunatic fringe and then the christians).. (oh and in victoria I could have gone conroy last.. shame Im not in victoria).

  18. Drake
    I know we cannot have Cardinal pell with a red phone in the Lodge, but the political differences otherwise are minis cule hence my enthusiasm for a hung parliament.

  19. @TSOP
    [So a policy that is opposed by a small niche]
    You mean the filter stuff? (sorry, typing fast but struggling to read & respond)
    No, it won’t kill the government but I want to challenge some of the misinformation about the issues. I live in hope that Labor, with the great vision to introduce the NBN, will quietly let the filter idea die a natural death. They can say to the fundie nutters, well we tried but….

  20. [By the way Pebbles, when is the next reputable poll due and what is your prediction? If my memory serves me correctly, you accurately predicted the recent 50-50.]

    I hate predicting polls. Most of the time I am crystal balling and just going by rough trends. Really depends which one it is and when it’s done. I’ll arbitrarily say 51-49 ALP, but that’s just a guess based purely on a good week so far.

    I’m no better at predicting polls than others on here.

  21. [“are you in favour of applying the same degree of censorship to (Child) sex and (Terrorist type) violence on the internet as applies on TV and in cinemas?”,

    not a bad line for Julia in a presser
    why aint we speech writers ]

    No it is not, it is a complete obfuscation of the reality of both the current situation and the hair-brained proposal Labor have put forward.

  22. [They can say to the fundie nutters, well we tried but….]

    May as well kill it off as without Libs support it will never get passed in the senate.

  23. Is it true that Abbott and Dutton tried to launch the health policy yesterday in Dutton’s electorate but because of some protesters present they held it over until today?

    Rather unfortunate for them. Even on the OO website the Rudd story takes precedence over the health story and has done so since late afternoon.

  24. Graeme @1817 I dont find anything particularly astonishing about the original decision to delay the ETS or Gillard soft pedaling on the issue. This is called politics and there just aren’t enough people who care passionately enough to vote for something that promises reductions in living standards (I dont believe that this is the case at all – I’m just saying that that is the overwhelming meme).

    One thing that surprises me is that the Greens could have sponsored a very weak ETS that might have gotten past some or all of the Liberal Senators with an understanding that the details would be worked out and the cap would be reduced once the Greens get the balance of power. It would give both parties kudos and it would have left Rudd free to work on other issues and properly sell his government.

    The thing is that playing the game he did, Bob Browne dangerously undercut Rudd (Rudd indeed was somewhat burnt out over the whole thing) and brought closer the one thing the Greens don’t need, and that’s an Abbott government.

  25. Wonder if Abbott will do the same, to take attention away from Labor and bring in Turnbull to ‘help’ with the election. Turnbull like Rudd is a much better option and more acceptable than the leaders of their parties.

  26. So, I’m probably going to go Sex Party.. Pirate party.. any other progressive party I can find then Green then Labor.. (then the Tories and then the raving lunatic fringe and then the christians).. (oh and in victoria I could have gone conroy last.. shame Im not in victoria).

    I’ll be doing exactly those preferences, and I’m in Victoria. And this is all because of the net-filter. Otherwise, I’d be voting ALP.

  27. The ‘fundamental’ truth is:
    1. the filter is nothing more than a political sop to right wing fundies,including Conroy.
    2.when in doubt see point 1.

  28. And I think that’s a perfect cue for me to leave too. The drugs are wearing off and my head is starting to race again. Better hit the pillow before I die. Bonne nuit, les Bludgers!

  29. jaundiced @1828, the last thing we want is more instability and more opportunity for Abbott and his mob to be wreckers. Look what they did in the Senate endlessly creating committees purely for the purpose of muck raking.

  30. @Tom Hawkins 1832

    [May as well kill it off as without Libs support it will never get passed in the senate.]

    There is no guarantee the Labor Party is fundie-nutter free. The filter is like hiding behind a rice-paper screen during a wildebeest stampede.

  31. The Rudd presser is on loop on Sky. And if you’re really quiet while your watching it you can hear little liberal hearts breaking all over the country.

  32. Why would Turnbull campaign with Abbott when Abbott won’t give him either shadow finance or shadow treasurer? Plus Turnbull’s best bet for becoming leader again is for Abbott to lose the election.

  33. Jon
    Posted Thursday, August 5, 2010 at 11:51 pm | Permalink

    “are you in favour of applying the same degree of censorship to (Child) sex and (Terrorist type) violence on the internet as applies on TV and in cinemas?”,

    not a bad line for Julia in a presser
    why aint we speech writers

    “No it is not”

    sorry for you , its reality
    out there in reel world of Parents KNOWING such smut is banned on video’s and in cinema’s

    fact that you a parent is in th 10% opposed to filtering child porn doesn’t change that

  34. [Why would Turnbull campaign with Abbott when Abbott won’t give him either shadow finance or shadow treasurer? Plus Turnbull’s best bet for becoming leader again is for Abbott to lose the election.]

    If Abbott wins the election, Turnbull will resign (again).

  35. @centaur009
    [And if you’re really quiet while your watching it you can hear little liberal hearts breaking all over the country.]

    I will treasure that moment forever.

    (No punishment is too harsh for serfchoices.)

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