With just under half the campaign to go:
• George Megalogenis in The Australian accuses Labor of spending the first two weeks of the campaign pursuing “an imaginary centre position between young and old”, instead alienating the former by being too conservative. Megalogenis explains Labor’s poll decline among older voters in terms of the global financial crisis having “ended the party for baby boomers just when they thought they had made it to a prosperous retirement”, and says the fear of falling property prices in Queensland (not shared in Sydney and Melbourne) has united young and old voters in that state against Labor.
• Milanda Rout of The Australian reports the Coalition is pessimistic about Labor’s two Victorian marginals, Deakin and Corangamite, and fears defeat not only in La Trobe and McEwen, but even in seemingly unassailable Aston (where sitting member Chris Pearce is retiring).
• Sean Parnell of The Australian offers the interesting tidbit that the Queensland Liberal National Party “allowed the federal Liberal Party to fundraise almost exclusively in the state – including through the mining debate – to fill its depleted coffers and avoid Queensland’s tougher disclosure laws”. The Bligh government reduced the threshold for disclosing donations from $1500 to $1000 in June 2008. This was presumably in anticipation of the Rudd government’s proposal to cut the threshold from $10,000 (to which the Howard government had hiked it from $1500 in 2005) to $1000, which is yet to come to fruition.
• The Adelaide Advertiser has launched a crusade against Barnaby Joyce over his rejection of Penny Wong’s call for a live debate over the River Murray in Adelaide, which Joyce dismissed as “parochial”. Joyce protests there will be “nothing much to talk about” in the absence of the water allocation plan, which the Murray Darling Basin Authority has contentiously delayed releasing until after the election.
• Phillip Hudson of the Herald-Sun reckons “ALP insiders have not seen any immediate improvement in their stocks from the PM’s pledge to unleash the ‘real Julia’.”
• Possum runs Newspoll and Nielsen state breakdowns through his fantabulous contraption and finds Labor 79.4 per cent likely to win at least 74 seats, 71.4 per cent likely to win at least 75 and 62.2 per cent likely to win at least 76 (i.e. an absolute majority).
• Antony Green’s Senate calculators are open for business.
It will be a vote changer for ‘some’ voters.
Labor need to backflip and quickly.
[I’m opposed to the filter, think LAbor were stupid for introducing it. But I’d never vote Liberal. If the filter were a vote changer for me, I’d vote greens. But climate change and stable government is what I’m more interested in, so the greens and liberals are out.]
Exactly.
Truth be told, I’m not 100% sold on the filter either. But electing Abbott is a stupid way to deal with the issue.
However most voters, including the youth (many of whom have their judgment constantly underestimated) will vote for the broader picture. Mainly the economy.
Diogenes that Adelaide Now front page is worth bottling.
Abbott mentioned filtering and email in the same paragraph! Governor General Pell would be mightily impressed.
[there is a Mark Aarons “former NSW Labor advisor” on Lateline dumping a bucket on Arbib/Bitar. Do you know who he is and/or what his beef is?]
He’s a former senior advisor to Carr and Iemma
[It will be a vote changer for ’some’ voters]
But that can be said about just about every issue.
I think that for quite a few disinterested (as in uninterested) young people who couldn’t care less about politics but love their computer/internet/games that it could swing their vote.
There are more people out there like that than you realise.
The internet filter is the one labor policy that is totally foolish, no doubt cooked up to keep the fundies happy. I don’t much rate Conroy, but I am still aghast that a Communications Minister could display such woeful ignorance of the technical issues. They took the money for the filter trial from the federal police budget for the section that investigates online child p0rn crimes. For the love of god or the great pumpkin what is he thinking? And he hasn’t just alienated libs, there are plenty of labor supporters who have been telling him to pick up a textbook from Internet 101 and find out for himself, or ask the fed police, or any 12 year old.
It can’t work. It will not protect children, it will endanger them because their non-tech parents will assume safety that does not exist. If parents want to protect their kids, don’t wait for the govt. do it. Start here. http://www.aifs.gov.au/nch/resources/internetsafety.html
Give the Federal Police the money to be wasted on this useless filter to track down the online peadophiles. They could really use it.
Diogenes
But are all these young people in marginal seats?
Harry ‘Snapper’ Organs @ 1697
[TPS, re: Catch 22, it’s just one of the book to film conversions that had me entirely engaged from beginning to end.]
I never thought that the film did the book justice, but in fairness to Mike Nichols, the film’s director, and to Buck Henry, who wrote the adapted screenplay for the film, Joseph Heller said that they did a good job on the thankless task of trying to make some order and sense out of his stream of consciousness style of writing the novel that played havoc with the film’s requirement for a more standard narrative.
A lot of the best things in the book, or course, never made it into the film, but that almost always happens in such a translation, although referring again to the other novel I mentioned earlier, ‘To Kill a Mockingbird’ there’s an example of a great novel that also was made into a great film, and I can’t think of too many of those – maybe ‘Gone with the Wind?’
I notice the Liberals waited until after the Christian Right parties locked their Senate preferences in behind them before deciding they opposed the filter.
[He’s a former senior advisor to Carr and Iemma]
Some patriot. Says he’s written an article for the Monthly about Arbib and Bitar so if it’s released before the election he stirs the pot.
Some adviser – Carr spent the last so many years just locking up National Parks and not much else and Iemma made a hash of selling stuff.
Puff the magic dragon.
The filter has been put on hold for 12 months, and I suspect the issue will be dropped. It is not popular and as you state, it won’t work properly anyway. This is a non issue I believe.
[But are all these young people in marginal seats?]
Thats where they all live and every last one is enrolled to vote.
@Glen/1677
They are blocking everything, including the National Broadband Network, which has support of the Greens, Senator Fielding (at least he’s willing to look at the proposal) and also the majority of the ICT Industry.
e.g.
http://www.stevefielding.com.au/news/details/telco_competition_laws_urged/
@Noocat/1700,
Conroy isn’t the problem, it’s 3rd Party thats the problem (ACL) go look them up.
Diogenes@1757
But are too stupid to realise that a Vote for the Libs is a vote supporting the Scrapping of the NBN.
It’s called cutting one’s nose of off in spite of their face.
Notice the right wingers on Adelaide Now website are voting 2/3 for a Rabbott win but 50/50 on whether Barnaby should front for a vote (over 4,000 votes). There are a few turkeys in the water as well as National ducks,
[notice the Liberals waited until after the Christian Right parties locked their Senate preferences in behind them before deciding they opposed the filter.]
Well spotted William and exactly what I thought. They delayed a decision until they knew they had the votes. This morning’s tirade on AM from the CR woman about the PM’s atheism meant that nothing the Libs do from now on will change those votes.
It’s like the Gamers4Croydon argument again. They said that the otherwise apolitical gamers were going to be a gamechanging force (no pun intended.) What was their LC vote? 0.83%
vic
Dunno. They’re prob not the mortgage belt marginals as they would be too young to own a house and many rent. I suppose they might be in the inner city seats.
steve
Just for those who never see AdelaideNow I’ll link it. You’ll note the front page of the deadwood Tiser has a nice photo of Wong waiting for Barnaby and screams ADELAIDE NOW! I’ll be surprised if it’s not front page again tomorrow.
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/
I have stated from the beginning of this election cycle that it will ultimately be about the economy, jobs, health and education. On that front Labor have the best balance of policies., and a good economic story to tell.
Kev and Julia have agreed to be united. All is good with the world tonight. Well tomorrow, who knows?
Nite all!
I’m still under the belief that the Adelaide rags are just siding with what the people want to hear. They’ve been siding against the Libs both online and on paper in the last week.
1767 – they also have a series of nice photos of Barnaby being the bush turkey!
TSOP
I hope you’re not sneezing at a 1% swing. And who won that battle; Atko or the Gamers?
Leon @1713
Different Paul Murray than the one on Sky. But both heavy on Labor bashing.
[Psephos – how are the RWLHs feeling tonight?]
Bullish.
[I hope you’re not sneezing at a 1% swing. And who won that battle; Atko or the Gamers?]
Labor.
Like federally. They didn’t like the policy or its architect, but preferred the party over the alternative.
Also, that wasn’t the issue that killed Atko. It was the proposed law to make political bloggers disclose their identities. (To which I am completely opposed)
[I notice the Liberals waited until after the Christian Right parties locked their Senate preferences in behind them before deciding they opposed the filter.]
Oh dear. So to get the filter they have to back an atheist PM, whereas if they vote for the religious guy, it’s no cigar.
Loving it.
The filter won’t happen. If both the Libs and Greens are against it, it’s dead.
[ Some adviser – Carr spent the last so many years just locking up National Parks and not much else and Iemma made a hash of selling stuff.
]
If the only thing Carr did in his last few years was “just locking up National Parks” you must be reading different history books than I do.
[I think that for quite a few disinterested (as in uninterested) young people who couldn’t care less about politics but love their computer/internet/games that it could swing their vote.
There are more people out there like that than you realise.]
You are correct, and most were absolutely appalled when they heard that the Libs would scrap the NBN.
[Some patriot. Says he’s written an article for the Monthly about Arbib and Bitar so if it’s released before the election he stirs the pot.
Some adviser – Carr spent the last so many years just locking up National Parks and not much else and Iemma made a hash of selling stuff.]
Patriotism is nation-loyalty, not party-loyalty, and neither Carr nor Iemma have ever lost an election.
Having said that, I do wish that people like Aarons and Latham would either desist from their damaging criticisms of Labor (during an election campaign) or openly declare their support for Abbott.
conroy defiant.
http://delimiter.com.au/2010/08/05/please-explain-conroy-tells-hockey-on-filter/
This won’t resonate much in punterland because they don’t know who this Aarons cove is.
RWLH?
Right Wing Labor Hardfolk?
victoria @ 1757.
The r18+ rating for games is an issue separate from the internet filter. The common profile in age for gamers is over 30. Remember, there’s a lot who started playing in the Commodore 64 days. The lack of an r18+ category apparently (not being a gamer but I know some of these 35 year olds.) means some games can’t get a rating because they are not suitable for 15-18 yrs group, so the games are restricted to buy.
I say ‘to buy’ because anyone who thinks they are not accessed is further out of touch than Conroy, and I don’t think that’s possible. It is nothing top do with the child p0rn/internet filter issue (unless they blacklist some of the game sites; I believe Half Life got tangled up in all this somehow; millions around the world play that online game.)
The Adelaide group, Gamers for Croydon have a lot of info, and from their comments log, many of them are Laborites. So yes, these issues could count.
Conroy is the gift that keeps giving to Tony.
How come he wasnt knifed instead of Rudd?
[This won’t resonate much in punterland because they don’t know who this Aarons cove is.]
I don’t know who Aarons is, and wondered why on earth he of all people had been dredged up by LL for an interview.
Teh ABC seem to be content to continue running interference on the ALP campaign, even if it means digging up obscure, never-before-heard-of former advisors to tell viewers how awful the current federal government is.
RE: The R18+ issue,
It is defiantly separate from the Filter issue.
And both Major parties haven’t bothered to change the law’s in that regard.
[Conroy is the gift that keeps giving to Tony. How come he wasnt knifed instead of Rudd?]
@Glen
They should have put a Ruddster mask on him and invited him to wait in Rudd’s empty office.
[The common profile in age for gamers is over 30. ]
Ah yes the vital social-retards-with-no-life demographic. Do they come out of their dungeons to vote? Probably not, because the cyborgs might get them.
@Glen/1784, They have Tony Abbott as Conroy’s replacement on the Coalitions Side.
Conroy wasn’t knifed probably because he’s a major Labor player?
[…The fact is that Rudd is both terrific and crap, depending on what he’s doing and where you’re sitting when he does it.]
Schrödinger’s Rudd:
Kevin Rudd, along with some sort of automatic knifing contraption, is placed in a sealed box. If an internal poll detects a drop in popularity beyond a threshold, Mark Arbib’s mobile goes off, thereafter releasing the knives. The Copenhagen interpretation of climate change implies that after a while, Rudd is simultaneously terrific and crap.
[This won’t resonate much in punterland because they don’t know who this Aarons cove is.]
Fair enough, but why go on Lateline during a campaign and spruik the “hollow-men of the NSW Right” line?
As if things aren’t hard enough.
only repute poll on filter had 80% in favor , making this site in minority but as i said earlier young who is most affected by W/C and that is a vote changer a filter is not except to elitists
BTW if young interested in computers as a votechanger and they’re not , then NBN speeds & downloads is more vip
The Big Ship @ where ever it was, I mostly agree about the Catch 22 film adaptation
and should included to zealotary libartariens and anti God ers
Aaron’s is 100% correct from what I saw. And I agree Conroy should be fed to the sharks along with v his Australian Christian Lobby sponsors.
jaundiced view@1798
And who are the Christian Groups preferencing ??
Not the ALP 🙂
[Fair enough, but why go on Lateline during a campaign and spruik the “hollow-men of the NSW Right” line?]
Because he’s a communist and enjoys sabotaging the Labor Party.