Stuff in the papers

With just under half the campaign to go:

• George Megalogenis in The Australian accuses Labor of spending the first two weeks of the campaign pursuing “an imaginary centre position between young and old”, instead alienating the former by being too conservative. Megalogenis explains Labor’s poll decline among older voters in terms of the global financial crisis having “ended the party for baby boomers just when they thought they had made it to a prosperous retirement”, and says the fear of falling property prices in Queensland (not shared in Sydney and Melbourne) has united young and old voters in that state against Labor.

• Milanda Rout of The Australian reports the Coalition is pessimistic about Labor’s two Victorian marginals, Deakin and Corangamite, and fears defeat not only in La Trobe and McEwen, but even in seemingly unassailable Aston (where sitting member Chris Pearce is retiring).

• Sean Parnell of The Australian offers the interesting tidbit that the Queensland Liberal National Party “allowed the federal Liberal Party to fundraise almost exclusively in the state – including through the mining debate – to fill its depleted coffers and avoid Queensland’s tougher disclosure laws”. The Bligh government reduced the threshold for disclosing donations from $1500 to $1000 in June 2008. This was presumably in anticipation of the Rudd government’s proposal to cut the threshold from $10,000 (to which the Howard government had hiked it from $1500 in 2005) to $1000, which is yet to come to fruition.

• The Adelaide Advertiser has launched a crusade against Barnaby Joyce over his rejection of Penny Wong’s call for a live debate over the River Murray in Adelaide, which Joyce dismissed as “parochial”. Joyce protests there will be “nothing much to talk about” in the absence of the water allocation plan, which the Murray Darling Basin Authority has contentiously delayed releasing until after the election.

• Phillip Hudson of the Herald-Sun reckons “ALP insiders have not seen any immediate improvement in their stocks from the PM’s pledge to unleash the ‘real Julia’.”

• Possum runs Newspoll and Nielsen state breakdowns through his fantabulous contraption and finds Labor 79.4 per cent likely to win at least 74 seats, 71.4 per cent likely to win at least 75 and 62.2 per cent likely to win at least 76 (i.e. an absolute majority).

• Antony Green’s Senate calculators are open for business.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,872 comments on “Stuff in the papers”

Comments Page 2 of 38
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  1. Hundreds of thousands of people wrote “No Dams” on their ballot papers during the ’83 poll -and although he may not have seen a single ballot paper himself, Bob Hawke got the message.

  3. I agree that more foreign trained doctors is a good idea, but it’s easier said than done. Every government tries to attracted foreign trained doctors.

  4. blue-green

    If plenty of Aussie doctors have been like Patel, why is it I have only heard about Patel’s court case. What other cases are there?

  7. [Helen Wait looks after those matters, If you want credit, go to hell and wait]

    Nasty.

    My wife was assisted in labour by an English midwife and a South American Obstetrician. They were excellent. I am not racist about my medical practioners or about anyone thank you.

  9. Kevin on Late Night Live: “life is too short to carry around a big bucket load of anger and bitterness”. Food for thought Thomas Paine?

  10. victoria
    It’s Simon Bermingham and Bill Shorten. No real fireworks.
    Listening to sound bite of K Rudd from last night. He sounded a little washed out from his hospital stay.
    And the three alpacas are little rippers!

  11. [blue-green

    If plenty of Aussie doctors have been like Patel, why is it I have only heard about Patel’s court case. What other cases are there?]

    Good question Victoria.

    Try, the ‘butcher of Bega’. Graeme Reeves for starters.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graeme_Stephen_Reeves

    Just an example of his brutality:
    [Reeves’ former patient Carolyn Dewaegeneire alleged that in 2002 Reeves had conducted a clitoridectomy rather than remove a small genital lesion, and had informed her that he was going to do so seconds before anaesthesia took effect]

  12. Ltep @ 56

    I clearly recall writing the words -inside their triangle- on the back of my ballot paper, and I have never voted in a by-election. I’m pretty sure it was the ‘Fraser’s Tears’ poll in ’83.

  16. I read somewhere that the new ALP line is WTTE “Tony Abbott can’t put a second mortgage on Australia”. I guess there is an iillusion that he cant manage his own finances.

    Two points:
    – why do the ALP need to produce lines? It drives me insane.
    – I am not sure it will work

    What does everyone else think?

  17. [Wonder how latest interview and support from Rudd will play out in the media and in Laborheartland?]

    It is so hard to tell in this poll hiatus

  20. BK
    i am thinking of linning my next quilt, with alpaca, [not the dear animal i hasten to say, ]
    the wool is felted and made in to 60 cm widths

    i have some samples here it is so warm, do you belong to the association.

  21. [Sky new just said we now go to Idiot Gilbert for “election analysis”. Gilbert could not analyse his butt. ]

    Speers was so good during the #spill but now I am glad I did not fork out the cash for foxtel and sky for this election. It doesnt add anything.

  23. ruawake

    You’re a stronger person than me. I can’t listen anymore to the drivel coming out of the Sky news people. It is so obviously biased, that all I do is yell at the tv, and my blood pressure goes through the roof.

    These days, I rely on you good people to tell me what is going on most of the time.

  24. [Kevin on Late Night Live: “life is too short to carry around a big bucket load of anger and bitterness”. Food for thought Thomas Paine?]

    Food for thought Mark Latham

  26. Tony Burke is supposed to debating population issues today, except I don’t know who the opposition person for population is, or whether the debate was actually confirmed.

  27. Peter Dutton has got himself into hot water on ABC radio in Melbourne. Nicola Roxon was interviewed first, then Dutton, who described Roxon several times as shrill in her criticism of coalition health policy. Dozens of text messages flowed, describing Dutton, among other things, as sexist and misogynist. He was still on the line when Faine told him of the reaction he was getting, but he wouldn’t apologize and continued to attack Roxon.

  28. [Tony Burke is supposed to debating population issues today, except I don’t know who the opposition person for population is, or whether the debate was actually confirmed.]

    Press Club at 12:30 with Scott Morrision

  29. I think I will name the 2010 election “the kama sutra election”.

    Its the one where both leaders have more positions than… well… the “kama sutra”

  30. Have the Libs denied Big Tobacco funding their advertisements? I haven’t been able to clarify their official position on this matter.

  31. Kevin on Late Night Live: “life is too short to carry around a big bucket load of anger and bitterness”.

    Kev’s wife Theressa has used this sort of espression before, she talked about having “a forgetory” saying no way would she carry around such negativity. Its an excellent approach imho.

  32. [Peter Dutton has got himself into hot water on ABC radio in Melbourne. Nicola Roxon was interviewed first, then Dutton, who described Roxon several times as shrill in her criticism of coalition health policy. Dozens of text messages flowed, describing Dutton, among other things, as sexist and misogynist. He was still on the line when Faine told him of the reaction he was getting, but he wouldn’t apologize and continued to attack Roxon]

    Go the vics.

  34. victoria
    Bermingham obviously should have said “Their claims don’t stand up to the facts”.

    my say
    No I don’t belong to the association. We will do some limited breeding but not go in fo all the pedigree show stuff.

  35. [Press Club at 12:30 with Scott Morrision]

    Thanks. If it’s Morrison then I just hope the debate doesn’t descend into boats.

  36. [Tony Burke is supposed to debating population issues today]

    Perhaps Tony Burke will quote the statement Abbott made on 01 August 2010:

    [“One of the Howard Government’s greatest but least recognised achievements was to rehabilitate the immigration program, increasing numbers to record levels.” ]

    To which Laurie Oakes (interviewer) responded:

    [“Woopee, big immigration.”]

    http://today.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=7938106

    😆

  40. Has Abbott said what his intentions are in regards to the Bank Guarantee which is due to expire on 12th October 2011? As he has rubbished it from the start he will most likely cancel the Guarantee early. I suspect that all the financial problems have not yet been finalised worldwide. My initial thought is not to get caught with any funds in the weaker institutions such as Building Societies and if Abbott wins I will move more to the banks. I would be interested what others who visit here are thinking.

  43. I’d love to see Dutton, Laming, Pyne, and Tuckey lose their seats. And I’d love the High Court to rule Abetz’s senate nomination invalid.

  45. I think George Megalogenis has hit the nail on the head, the factional dimwits in the Labor party don’t seem to have realized this country has put a lot of resources into educating the young and are more than capable of recognizing dog whistles aimed at Pauline.

  47. The dynamic re the Kevin Rudd factor has clearly changed. You can feel it in the air, and Julia Gillard can feel it too. Significantly, and in contrast to all previous election interviews, on ABC Radio National, in an interview with Lyndal Curtis, JG not once but twice brought up KR’s name of her own volition durng the interview. She had earlier been questioned at length by LC but as I say, she later took the initiative and referred to KR herself. A week or 2 back, she was writing KR out of the script as fast as she could.

  48. blue_green wondered:

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/08/05/stuff-in-the-papers/all-comments/#comment-550790

    [why do the ALP need to produce lines? It drives me insane.]

    All parties produce lines, do they not? Why shouldn’t the Australian Labor Party be ‘allowed’?

    Perhaps the reason they “drive you insane” is because you are, quote:

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/08/05/stuff-in-the-papers/all-comments/#comment-550753

    [a strongly anti-labor person]

  50. [The dynamic re the Kevin Rudd factor has clearly changed. You can feel it in the air, and Julia Gillard can feel it too. Significantly, and in contrast to all previous election interviews, on ABC Radio National, in an interview with Lyndal Curtis, JG not once but twice brought up KR’s name of her own volition durng the interview. She had earlier been questioned at length by LC but as I say, she later took the initiative and referred to KR herself. A week or 2 back, she was writing KR out of the script as fast as she could.]

    Australians forgive and forget pretty quickly. Malcolm is rehabilitated. So why not Kevin?

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