Stuff in the papers

With just under half the campaign to go:

• George Megalogenis in The Australian accuses Labor of spending the first two weeks of the campaign pursuing “an imaginary centre position between young and old”, instead alienating the former by being too conservative. Megalogenis explains Labor’s poll decline among older voters in terms of the global financial crisis having “ended the party for baby boomers just when they thought they had made it to a prosperous retirement”, and says the fear of falling property prices in Queensland (not shared in Sydney and Melbourne) has united young and old voters in that state against Labor.

• Milanda Rout of The Australian reports the Coalition is pessimistic about Labor’s two Victorian marginals, Deakin and Corangamite, and fears defeat not only in La Trobe and McEwen, but even in seemingly unassailable Aston (where sitting member Chris Pearce is retiring).

• Sean Parnell of The Australian offers the interesting tidbit that the Queensland Liberal National Party “allowed the federal Liberal Party to fundraise almost exclusively in the state – including through the mining debate – to fill its depleted coffers and avoid Queensland’s tougher disclosure laws”. The Bligh government reduced the threshold for disclosing donations from $1500 to $1000 in June 2008. This was presumably in anticipation of the Rudd government’s proposal to cut the threshold from $10,000 (to which the Howard government had hiked it from $1500 in 2005) to $1000, which is yet to come to fruition.

• The Adelaide Advertiser has launched a crusade against Barnaby Joyce over his rejection of Penny Wong’s call for a live debate over the River Murray in Adelaide, which Joyce dismissed as “parochial”. Joyce protests there will be “nothing much to talk about” in the absence of the water allocation plan, which the Murray Darling Basin Authority has contentiously delayed releasing until after the election.

• Phillip Hudson of the Herald-Sun reckons “ALP insiders have not seen any immediate improvement in their stocks from the PM’s pledge to unleash the ‘real Julia’.”

• Possum runs Newspoll and Nielsen state breakdowns through his fantabulous contraption and finds Labor 79.4 per cent likely to win at least 74 seats, 71.4 per cent likely to win at least 75 and 62.2 per cent likely to win at least 76 (i.e. an absolute majority).

• Antony Green’s Senate calculators are open for business.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,872 comments on “Stuff in the papers”

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  2. two cases that were publicised of o/s Dr’s can’t pass the Australian equivency test one being a south Africian eye Dr and the other Patel. That report also said that alot of o/s Dr’s aren’t passing the tests.

    Although alot of o/s Dr’s are very competent, the oldies have a liking for the white, english speaking Dr’s, especially in rural redneck joh/pauline Qld. Hence the Libs refugee dragging them back out to sea policy.

  3. [All parties produce lines, do they not? Why shouldn’t the Australian Labor Party be ‘allowed’?]

    Yep. I just prefered to be talked to like an adult, from all parties.

  5. [Dutton comes across as a spoilt bully boy who hates not getting his own way. Immature, really.]

    Yes, though it wasn’t apparent to me that Dutton used shrill deliberately because Roxon is female. The word does have a common figurative meaning, which, in my opinion, shouldn’t be off limits just because the object of it is female. I couldn’t tell whether Dutton used it innocently or not, but it was a bad response from him once he was told of the listeners’ reaction.

  6. In case nobody is covering it, I think this will be a positive opportunity for Labor tonight: Joseph Stiglitz is speaking about economic recovery in Sydney at CEDA.

    Copland Lecture at the Australian Economic Forum Dinner co-hosted by the Economic Society of Australia NSW Branch and the Committee for Economic Development of Australia (CEDA)

    The Road to Global Recovery – Lessons and Opportunities

    Dockside
    The Balcony Level, Cockle Bay Wharf
    Darling Park, Sydney
    7.00pm

    You need to book in advance; I wish I could attend. It would be good if someone could ask questions like: should we be cutting government spending now? Will a carbon tax create or destroy jobs? In an ideal world some media might even attend and take notes.

  7. [Although alot of o/s Dr’s are very competent, the oldies have a liking for the white, english speaking Dr’s, especially in rural redneck joh/pauline Qld.]

    The old-doctors club (ie cartel)

  8. [I couldn’t tell whether Dutton used it innocently or not, but it was a bad response from him once he was told of the listeners’ reaction.]

    How Dutton rose to a senior position is beyond me

  9. blue-green

    Kev has said he will support Julia and the Labor party in any way. He holds no grudges.
    That must please you no?

  11. [I think George Megalogenis has hit the nail on the head, the factional dimwits in the Labor party don’t seem to have realized this country has put a lot of resources into educating the young and are more than capable of recognizing dog whistles aimed at Pauline.]
    Hell, why would they go to the Libs at all then, they’re past masters at dog whistling.

  13. I hate to burst people’s bubble with facts but 30% of the doctors working as registrars in public hospitals are overseas doctors. We do have quite a few of them.

  14. School kids will mob any political leader. Tony Abbott got mobbed just last week, with one of the kids screaming “I don’t even know who he is!”.

    [How Dutton rose to a senior position is beyond me]

    He used to be cited as future leadership potential.

  15. [Yep. I just prefered to be talked to like an adult, from all parties.]

    Then why single out the Labor Party? Because you’re a “strongly anti-Labor person”?

    How do you react to the Liberal slogan, which has been repeated A LOT more than any Labor slogan AND for a lot longer:

    [A great big tax]

    Remember the kids’ story ‘Little Red Riding Hood’ where the heroine says to the big bad wolf,

    [Oh, Grandma, what great big teeth you’ve got!]

    Sounds familiar, right? The Liberals have borrowed a line from a children’s story!!!

    Admit it, b_g, the Liberals are the ones talking to you like a child.

  17. Kevin on Late Night Live: “life is too short to carry around a big bucket load of anger and bitterness”. Food for thought Thomas Paine?

    Food for thought Mark Latham

    CUE MARK LATHAM (for the purposes of Sky News “another senior Labor insider”): “This just shows how much of a wimp Rudd is. I have always said it. He has no life. Now he’s crawling back to the Labor Party, begging them for a job, because that’s all he’s got. He doesn’t have an ounce of fight in his wussy body. I know what pain is. I had pancreatitis. Now there’s pain.” etc. etc.

    Latham will find something nasty to say.

  19. Yes Victoria, I think it could well be a significant turning point. Just how it is covered in Queensland will be fairly crucial I suppose.

    On reflection, it is quite striking to me how strategically perfect was the LNL Kevin Rudd “intervention” as many are calling it. KR has managed to use a national media outlet to make an extended, effective pitch for Labor that addresses all the nagging questions – was he the source of the leak, will he attend the launch, what job does he want post-election, does he support Julia Gillard – and yet this unique forum enabled him to do so under the radar, in terms of TV cameras and the wider circus. That was signficantly down to the fact that he is mates with Philip Adams, of course, and was able to capitalise on that friendship to do a radio interview that was both sympathetic and probling. It really is quite spectacular how beautifully carried off this intervention was.

  21. Blue Green 108

    Agreed, he has the look of a spoilt child. Can’t believe he was a cop. Hope he gets booted. If it was Mal Brough I would have thought the Labor candidate wouldn’t have a chance, but against Dutton/Mutton (sorry) very good chance.

    Does anyone have the Crikey story about Dutton and the bunch of blue shirted goons who harassed a lone protestor the other day when Tony was supposed to visit. Tony ran away to another electorate so the media wouldn’t see the protestors, who at this stage was joined by workchoice protestors.

  22. [blue-green

    Kev has said he will support Julia and the Labor party in any way. He holds no grudges.
    That must please you no?]

    I am pretty much over this election. The issues for me are climate and the environment. Otherwise, I am socially moderate and a small-govt, small ‘l’ liberal.

    I was furious with the libs for dumping the malcolm and the ALP for obfuscating on the etc. I am also furious that no party has a comprehensive environment policy.

    I dont like the populist poll driven direction of either party at the moment.

    Its good for Aus that Rudd settles down. He has a lot to offer. I think he should lead our international climate negotiations. He was stellar at Copenhagen.

  23. Ta Cuppa,

    [Admit it, b_g, the Liberals are the ones talking to you like a child.]

    Everyone is talking to me like a child. You can’t really like ‘moving forward’ either.

  24. [And just for those bludgers who thought Rudd’s interview was going to save Gillard like the messiah, this is how it’s being reported.

    KEVIN Rudd last night admitted to having “a great bucket load of anger” after his ousting by Julia Gillard but denied he was the high-level Labor leaker.

    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/in-depth/i-wasnt-the-leaker-says-kevin-rudd/story-fn5rizbk-1225901427442%5D

    Diogs now you’ve gone and popped their bubbles 🙂

  25. Victoria

    I said last night I thought it was a major step forward for Labor. It both reduces the perceptions of disunity, and allows Gillard to better own the past economic achievements which are a positive. She can then attack Abbott with more credibility on his nutty unfunded promises. Hopefully it will help in Qld too. It has been a much better week for Labor.

  28. [Hope he gets booted.]

    Just a few months ago it seemed almost certain he would be. Now it looks very unlikely. We are stuck with him, but I don’t really mind because he’s been Nicola Roxon’s punching bag so far, and I hope things work out so he’ll continue to be.

  29. [Blue Green 108

    Agreed, he has the look of a spoilt child. Can’t believe he was a cop. Hope he gets booted. If it was Mal Brough I would have thought the Labor candidate wouldn’t have a chance, but against Dutton/Mutton (sorry) very good chance.]

    Dutton is a dill. Did you see him boycott the aboriginal apology and turn up to the ‘forgotten australians’ one. Mal Brough was someone who could have provided serious leadership for the Libs.

  30. [Everyone is talking to me like a child. You can’t really like ‘moving forward’ either.]

    It’s not a line from a bloody childrens story!

  31. Sorry, haven’t read all the comments yet, but why would “the fear of falling property prices in Queensland (not shared in Sydney and Melbourne) [unite] young and old voters in that state against Labor”?

    Falling house prices are great news for prospective first home buyers.

  32. The Rudd interview will likely have about as much impact on swinging voters as the ‘real Julia’ conversion. It’s just not what they’re interested in. Last night Ron posted an anecdotes of some door-knocking he has done:

    [Diff people got diff prioritys but boats and imigration and w/c and jobs and interst were quite regular themes No surprise No guys mentioned PPL natural , a few ladies did , and CC little comment Cost of living always going up and taxes is an issue to people]

    This should give you a better indicatoin of the poll slide. Boats, immigration and taxes are all toxic issues for Labor.

  33. Glen

    I heard a slight negtive aspect to the reporting last night but I don’t think that is significant. Rudd himself can counter that perception byu continuing to campaign, as he said he will do. The more he does so, the less bite any attacks have. Overall, as I said, it must be a positive, for stopping the leaks alone, and if it did nothing more than stop Labor bleeding seats in Qld, Rudd’s assistance will be priceless.

    As I said last night, I thought Rudd showed a lot of character to make his statement. He had every right to feel annoyed, and considering that all he has done since the knifing is stay silent, his critics within Labor went much too far, only giving ammunition to those who benefitted from Labor appearing divided. United they will poll better, no question.

  34. [It’s not a line from a bloody childrens story!]

    I can’t stand gbnt, but more because of the subject it is referring to. I never thought about the link to a children story.

  38. [Cuppa
    Posted Thursday, August 5, 2010 at 9:36 am | Permalink
    …….

    Then why single out the Labor Party? Because you’re a “strongly anti-Labor person”?]

    The Liberals are in the gutter and Labor happily followed, didn’t even stop to think, perhaps we are party for the educated and the thinking and we a likely to piss of our support base. The behavior of Labor show how little respect they have for the demographic that vote for them, your comment continues that disrespect,

    it’s ok because that is how the Liberals behave towards the people that vote for them, bullshit, thats why I no longer vote Liberal.

    Rudd and Gillard

    Always thought they were a good team, doesn’t matter who is first who is second. Just make Rudd the deputy and get on with it, whats the worse he can do, stab her in the back 4 weeks before the next election would be my thought.

  39. triton, it’s a war of perception. People perceive Labor to be the party of higher taxes. Why would people even mention it otherwise? It would probably be less of a problem for Labor if they didn’t have a number of high profile taxes during the term; the luxury car tax, the alcopops tax, the raise in taxation on cigarettes, the CPRS and then finally the RSPT/MRRT. On top of this I think the Government failed to sell their tax cuts adequately. Howard would’ve been out there shouting loudly about each of the tax cuts. They barely got a mention under this government.

  40. In case nobody is covering it, I think this will be a positive opportunity for Labor tonight: Joseph Stiglitz is speaking about economic recovery in Sydney at CEDA.

    They’ll be bussing them in from far and wide. Special trains put on from Blacktown and Rooty Hill to cope with the load as the battlers and oldies who who’ve swallowed the Coalition snake oil that we’re mired in debt and waste turn up to have their minds changed by the pointy-head from America.

    Sky News will declare the election Game, Set and Match for Julia as the good professor debunks once and for all the stupid claims of Hockey and Robb about how badly we’re faring. ABC-24 will chime in with a special event telecast to make sure the message gets out where it’s most needed.

    But only if we’re in Bizarro World, that is.

    Meanwhile, in Real-Action World (TM), Labor have single-handedly wrecked the country building unnecessary school halls. The hundreds of thousands of jobs created, low inflation, low interest rates, and booming exports only show how Labor has lost control of the economy. They have disintegrated families with their stingy PPL scheme, far inferior to Lib-PPL v.2.3.5 (or is it v2.3.6? I can never remember). They have killed old ladies by burning their houses down. The houses they left standing are live with mains power leaks. They’ve assassinated a Prime Minister, a great man who was a river to his people, who is even now plotting to hog the limelight by dribbling out gastric operations, phone interviews and refusing to say exactly what the media thinks he should say.

    Only Tony Abbott, Prime Ministerial in stature and as honest as the day is long in character, can save us now.

  41. [didn’t even stop to think, perhaps we are party for the educated and the thinking and we a likely to piss of our support base.]

    I thought Labor’s base were the workers fredn. The academics are not the section of the community that win Labor elections.

  42. This more what I was expecting.

    [Mr Abbott blows his budget

    Mr Abbott has blown his budget with billions of dollars in un-costed spending commitments and phoney savings that simply don’t stack up.

    Mr Abbott has announced over $20 billion in un-costed spending commitments on the run, without a clear economic plan for Australia.

    His big spending commitments are now putting the budget surplus at risk.
    Just half way through an election campaign, Mr Abbott’s reckless spending has cut the budget surplus by almost half.

    The Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Outlook released by the Secretaries of Treasury and Finance confirmed that the Gillard Labor Government was on track to return the budget to surplus in 2012-13, three years ahead of schedule.

    By 2013-14, that surplus was expected to grow to $4.5 billion. That surplus will be at risk under Mr Abbott. In 2013-14, Mr Abbott has already committed to spending around $2 billion more than he is saving.
    That’s before you take into account his costing blowout for the Education Tax Refund.

    We already know that the cost of his Paid Parental Leave Scheme has blown out by around $700 million a year – and that’s in the space of just four months.

    This demonstrates once again that Mr Abbott isn’t up to managing the Budget.
    It’s taken him less than three weeks to blow half the surplus.

    And without Mr Abbott’s grocery tax, he would lose another $3.1 billion in revenue that would push the budget into deficit in 2013-14.

    Mr Abbott’s reckless spending has meant that the only way he can keep his budget in the black is to tax families every time they go to the supermarket.

    Mr Abbott has proved yet again that he is a risk to the budget and a risk to the economy.

    The Gillard Labor Government, in contrast, has a clear economic plan and will bring the budget back to surplus in 2013, three years ahead of schedule, and ahead of every single major advanced economy]

  43. [Dutton is a dill. Did you see him boycott the aboriginal apology and turn up to the ‘forgotten australians’ one.]

    To be fair to Dutton he wasn’t alone on that front.

  47. William, Reuters Poll trend is at 51.5/48.5. Gillard leads PPM by 13.3 points but her popularity has dropped 11 points in 2 weeks.

  48. BB 140

    You could get a job at the OO with writing like that 😉

    I admit Stiglitz’s views are unlikely to convince Glen Milne to vote Labor, but it might help with those of less fixed voting intentions if they got some air play.

  49. [I can’t stand gbnt, but more because of the subject it is referring to. I never thought about the link to a children story.]

    It’s insulting on two counts.

    1) It is a lie. Emissions trading is NOT a tax; it’s a trading scheme.

    2) It’s pure patronisation – a slogan aimed at manipulating those with the intellect / linguistic sophistication of four-year-olds. Just how lowly do the conservatives view their target audience?

  50. [And just for those bludgers who thought Rudd’s interview was going to save Gillard like the messiah, this is how it’s being reported.]

    Getting much more positive coverage in the Courier Mail – which is where it actually matters. SA is ok for the ALP.

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