My federal election guide is at long last open for business – note the link on the sidebar below the Crikey Daily Mail ad. It could have done with another proof read, so apologies for any broken links, misplaced slabs of text or references to Kevin Rudd as Prime Minister that might remain. Entries will be progressively updated/corrected/tarted up in the weeks to come.
Miscellaneous recent happenings:
• Nominations have closed, and the ballot paper draw will be conducted tomorrow. The Australian Electoral Commission informs us there are 14,030,528 names on the electoral roll: click here for astoundingly detailed age and gender breakdowns by electorate.
• The Age reports the High Court will hear a constitutional challenge by GetUp! against the closure of the electoral rolls on the evening the writs are issued, as provided for by the Howard government’s 2005 electoral law changes.
• ABC TV’s The Gruen Nation and The Chaser’s Yes We Canberra! cleaned up in the ratings on Wednesday, recording 1.6 million and 1.5 million viewers respectively. This brings to mind a growing field of study in the United States on the impact of “soft news” (usual suspects: Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert) as a bona fide campaign information source for those bored by or cynical of the established news media institutions.
• As in 2007, Google has put together an election site which will come into its own, at least for my purposes, when polling booth locations are added as promised “closer to election day”.
Horse race stuff:
• Andrew Probyn of The West Australian reports Labor internal polling has them at 50-50 in Hasluck and Swan, but trailing 53-47 in Canning. Labor are also said to be expecting a Greens preference split of about 65-35 compared with 76-24 in 2007. It is noted that a lower flow of Greens preferences is expected in Hasluck in particular as both the Greens and the Liberals have endorsed Aboriginal candidates.
• This is how Brisbane academic and blogger Mark Bahnisch sees his local turf:
Longman is looking good for the ALP, with 20 year old LNP candidate Wyatt Roy failing to swing voters. Petrie is showing more evidence of a swing towards the Coalition, though the LNP candidate Dean Teasdale is low profile and Labor holds it by a relatively solid margin compared to its two neighbours. (Teasdale initially expressed scepticism about the rail promise, only to have the Coalition leadership match the funding later in the afternoon.) Dickson is looking very bad for its incumbent MP Peter Dutton, with Labor’s Fiona McNamara able to capitalise on his failed attempt to defect to the safer seat of McPherson.
Electorate-level news nuggets:
Robertson (Labor 0.1%): Belinda Neal has opted not to run as an independent in her seat of Robertson, contrary to widespread earlier speculation. AAP refers to “reports Ms Neal was angling for a spot in the NSW parliament”, assuming there are any left for Labor after the voters are done with them.
Dawson (Labor 2.4%): Queensland’s Crime and Misconduct Commission has dismissed 17 allegations of misconduct relating to corporate credit card use against Labor’s candidate for Dawson, Whitsunday mayor Mike Brunker. The allegations have been the subject of newspaper advertising by the Liberal National Party candidate, George Christensen. Brunker reacted to the news by complaining of “a serial pest out there in the Whitsundays who instigated all this”.
There’s always one. In fact, there’s often several. Certainly this campaign’s had a few:
Chifley (Labor 20.7%): With less than a week left before the closure of nominations, the Liberals were forced to disendorse a candidate whose preselection marked an embarrassing failure for its candidate-vetting procedures. David Barker is a conservative Christian of marked eccentricity, and according to Imre Salusinszky of The Australian was “never grilled by a full preselection panel and was interviewed only by phone before being chosen”. Astoundingly given the party’s form with Husic, Barker wrote on his Facebook page: “We ran a big risk running a guy who holds these views against a Muslim candidate.” He was promptly replaced by grocery store owner Venus Priest.
Flinders (Liberal 8.2%): Initial Labor candidate Adrian Schonfelder was a casualty of the first week, after he said Tony Abbott’s conservative social positions were “influencing people to take their own lives”. Schonfelder apologised and soon after withdrew as candidate, saying a car accident on the Friday had left him “shocked and incapacitated”.
Parramatta (Labor 9.5%): Liberal candidate Charles Camenzuli has received unwelcome publicity in the past week after Channel Nine revealed he had been criticised by a Supreme Court judge. The court ordered Camenzuli to stop publishing criticisms of building industry rival Beechwood Homes on his website, which the judge deemed “motivated by personal spite”.
BK
I am amazed; you are not the first person to suggest I have obsessive complsive disorder 😀
No great discoveries, but I can see how political parties could really go to town on the demographic statistics analysis on a seat by seat basis…
evan – I didn’t really think you were joking, it was more of a gasp! “I don’t believe it” reaction. A new low indeed.
I’m actually surprised the commercials handled the matter more sensitively as I do have rather a low opinion of most of them (leaving me with very little to watch on TV 🙂 ).
Nothing personal, Laocoon.
[A landmark precedent was set in 1999 when the election of Queensland’s newest One Nation senator Heather Hill was declared invalid by the High Court because she held dual British and Australian citizenship.]
what do you think of cheryl chances in the senate.
why on earth would she want to do that,
Diogenes @ 944
[One thing visiting Stonehenge did].
If it is the first time you’ve been there, did you think it was smaller than you’d imagined? I know that was my reaction – a bit of a disappointment, really, although I still can’t imagine how it was built at that time. I suppose they didn’t have pink batts and BER to worry about, which I notice Tony was on about yet again today. “How can they build an NBN if they can’t etc….”
The ABC certainly are giving Abbott a free run – no scrutiny at all of his dodgy policy announcements, just nice pics of Tony swapping wise cracks with the “Meals On Wheels” ladies.
i just searched for Hewit commenatry tonight but not up so i suppose we may not get it till monday
But for fans of 24/7 i am sure they will reapeat it you do know you can stream here and write at the same time dont you.
bye
I think I may have obssessive campaign disorder.
Abetz sent off a letter renouncing his German citizenship. Why? Is it not incumbent on HIM to ascertain the legally correct way to renounce and do it that way. His explanation smacks of slackness or arrogance or both. I hope they nail lying arse, remember his dissembling during Gretch treachery.
My Say: Kernot’s name recognition might get her a few votes, but that’s about it.
[certainly are giving Abbott a free run – no scrutiny at all of his dodgy policy announcements, just nice pics of Tony swapping wise cracks with the “Meals On Wheels” ladies.]
i did say before that he can give money to meals on wheels there are not enough volunteers to do the deliveries these days.
And some are as old as the ones who receive the meals an elderly volunteer told me she has to stop soon and they cannot even talk to the older people now because they dont have time i think they have to go back and do more rounds.
I can see this in the future that is something that paid people will do.
I was so angry when i saw him there
I bet he has done volunteering like that.
why Tone can get away with his BER crap when 99% of the 24,000 projects have had no complaints is beyond me. i havent heard ONE journalist ask him about this
Allan
I’d heard that it wasn’t all that impressive so my expectations weren’t that high. I liked it but I thought Avebury was a lot better.
I bet he has NEVER done volunteering like that.
billy, it appears that according to german law at the time, the citizenship is not renounced unless they confirm it in writing, which they did not do. now, abetz’s intention was to renounce, and these days they dont need to confirm it back in writing. So i’d be interested in what the court says.
why have the MSM totally ignored this story??
my say
Comment made to me today. ‘They are all picking on Gillard because she is a woman’. I thought that was quite interesting.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/30/2969459.htm
Not an entirely negative story on Rudd’s most recent announcement
billy
In fairness to Abetz, who probably doesn’t deserve it, he did apologise about the Grech affair which is more then Turnbull ever managed.
my say
I missed the news but I see she is standing as an independent. I’m not sure she will make it frankly but I suppose it depends on how the marbles fall. I see from the Google article I “researched” that it is for NSW. The article (in the Herald Sun) also had one of those fun and useless polls so I amused myself by filling it in. Doubtless the Young Libs will also be out in force.
Well gee. Returning from my journey today reading down from my last post this morning I see there was a little contretemps about a rather wild allegation by Frank that I made an ethnic slur against the Labor nobodies, led by Arbib. As I pride myself on not making ethnic slurs, I reread the sequence of posts of this morning , and there was no ethnic slur made by me against Arbib and Co.
I used a metaphor of the mafia/ mafioso/ Cosa Nostra to describe elements of the behaviour of that right-wing group in the party as described in the SMH article today. I have done the same thing many times. I could just as easily have used Triads, Russian mafia, or any number of others as the metaphor, but the originals are generic terms these days which are easily understood by all.
The metaphor was about the tone and style of behaviour – as it is often used in current English.
How is it an ethnic slur? It didn’t ethnically slur Sicilians or North Americans or any other ethnic group. Did it slur whatever ethnic group Arbib is from? No.
So, what was it all about? Who knows – maybe frustration at this campaign.
Anyway, I shall continue to use the metaphor as I have done on many previous occasions where appropriate, because it is apt and slurs no ethnic group. However, it does have a metaphorical resonance when attached to the NSW right, and the new right power cell Federally. I think, in fact, that was the real reason for the over-reaction this morning. 😎
kernot, no chance. Next
What’s the bet that when the polls swing back to Labor in spite of the so-called leaks, the Lib’s response will be to suggest that the leaks were deliberate and strategic in order to garner sympathy for Gillard? Seriously, those guys really are that low …
Oh, and not at all surprised to hear the suggestion that Rudd’s hospitalisation is somehow been done strategically as well – the only suprise it is wasn’t the Liberals who suggested it. Or was it? It is always possible that some polly made a snarky comment to a journo and they decided to run with it.
I agree with the suggestion that the Libs’ negativity is starting to bite the wrong way in the electorate. Spent some time in hospital yesterday and spoke with one old lady who was a lifetime Liberal voter (my part of this marginal Labor electorate is full-on Liberal – 70/30). She said she was in an absolute dilemma this election; she can’t stand Abbott and doesn’t want him to be PM. On the other hand, she really likes Gillard and wants to her be PM … only not in a Labor Government. She said Julia reminded her of a young Margaret Thatcher, that she’s never voted Labor in her life and didn’t think she could now, in spite of her respect for Julia. In the end, she said she thought her best option was to vote informal, in which case neither party got her vote.
Another woman there said she was a swinging voter and didn’t really pay much attention to politics, although the ascension of Gillard to the PMship caught her eye and she liked the idea of a woman finally being PM. Interestingly, she said that she had noticed the negativity towards Gillard in the news reporting and the seemingly uncritical reporting of everything Abbott does. She did sound like she wasn’t an Abbott fan more generally either, but it was interesting that she had still noticed the media bias, despite limited exposure to and interest in politics outside of election campaigns.
2 people is hardly scientific, but in an area like this, it felt significant and I wonder how much of it is actually out there.
[I imagine he could probably just properly renounce his German citizenship and then get appointed to his vacancy (Legal experts here: is that a legal move?)]
This would only work for his current term that ends 30 June 2011. If his candidacy at this election is found invalid they will recount the Senate votes without him being there. This would mean he’d be locked out of the Senate for at least 3 years.
So, what chance Kernot for the Senate? Doesn’t sound as if she has done much groundwork. She said on NewsRadio that she only decided to run on Tuesday.
jv
Please leave this be. Frank is in moderation. IMHO some of those who did a bit of shit stirring on the ethnicity side of things belong there as well.
Frank has apologized handsomely.
Boerwar @ 959
I’m sure there are pills you can take for that, or a nice bottle of single malt whisky.
Andrew
No chance? Can you explain that?
Let’s see how negative and cynical the News Ltd rags are about Rudd’s surgery tomorrow – the ABC certainly for now has trumped them in the “muck raking” stakes.
Concerning the Abetz thing a poster named John Hawkins, who is an antique dealer reported by the Mercury to be wealthy (see http://www.jbhawkinsantiques.com/), and has a beef with Abetz over forestry, has been going on about this on and off on Tasmanian Times for a few years. This is the first time I have seen it get any mainstream coverage at all (though TT was not mentioned by the Mercury as the source – the most recent round started at http://tasmaniantimes.com/index.php?/weblog/article/hawko2/) and my view of it is that it is a beatup and will not get far in court. Indeed Hawkins has so far only said he is seeking advice on how to take it to the High Court level. I expect that he would struggle to even provide due evidence to cause the court to take the matter seriously.
I wrote the following deeply biased comment on a TT thread in January 2009, and I know that it was seen by Hawkins:
[Those wishing to focus productive energy on getting the socially illiberal right out of the Tassie Senate would be better off paying attention to the wonderful demotion of Guy Barnett to the eminently losable #3 Liberal position. If Hawkins has the money to spend on High Court cases he could acheive a great deal by spending it on advertising designed to keep the Liberals to a maximum of two Senate seats. ]
Full candidate lists are now up
http://www.aec.gov.au/election/who-are-the-candidates.htm
AM
OP rum is doing the trick nicely.
Next to none jaundiced. The ALP/Greens preference deal almost cetainly locks out any other minor or micro party. In any case I can’t imagine shell get much of a personal vote.
Kelly gets donkey vote in Eden-Monaro
*makes donkey noise*
Excellent comment Kevin.
Cheryl Kernot! why is she even bothering?
Boerwar@976
Boerwar
Oh, there was more? I haven’t seen the posts in between. It’s been sorted has it? If so, good. It must have gone ‘oobatz’. 😆
[Confression s tasmanians never go there]
my say:
I don’t understand. Does this mean the Liberals have shut down debate on Abetz, or does it mean Tasmanians don’t discuss his dilemma in polite company?
Would the Abetz thing have to go to the High Court? Surely there is a lower court or the AEC to sort this kind of stuff out.
The AEC cannot determine matters of constitutional law Diogenes. It could be handled by the Federal Court though.
ltep@983
Aha. She didn’t sound confident about getting a seat on the radio. Stuff about ‘starting a conversation’ etc. Maybe a precursor to a third party attempt afterwards? There were comments about the level of disaffection with the current state of Aus politics, which made me sit up and listen a bit.
When did Kernot come back to Australia? Only recently she was reported living in London and active in the expats Labor branch.
It’s a constitutional case, it goes straight to the High Court. See Heather Hill, Phil Cleary.
Dio, in this instance you are correct, Abetz apology only came when it was blatently obvious that the previous attack dog position he had taken was exposed as false and lying.
More broadly Abetz certainly is not deserving of fairness by virture of his failure to give any to anyone else – many observation available in his public life.
He will survive the current situation no doubt, but he will trip up somewhere and there will a football team with size twelve boots on to kick him when, not if that happens.
Diogenes @ 964.
That is impressive. Also the Ring of Brodgar (or Brogar) on the Orkney Is is worth a look if you ever get up that way. Plus you can have the fun of a rough sea voyage over the Pentland Firth in a smallish boat!
http://www.travel-images.com/photo/photo-orkney35.html
The Ring was built in a true circle, 104 metres wide and originally contained 60 megaliths apparently. Only 27 remain.
I just saw the ballot positions for Husluck,
Happy that the Greens are heading the ballot
Unhappy that Sharryn Jackson is below the Libs candidate and that number 2 is the Climate Sceptics, 3 is the Christian Democrats and 4 is Family first.
I will probably vote 1 Greens, 2 ALP, 3 Liberal. All the other riff raff towards the botton of my ballot.
Psephos any constitutional case can also be heard in the Federal Court.
Boerwar, have enjoyed Bluey’s daily summations enormously.
Here’s a good news story!! The infamous sleazebag Swiftboat backers, the Wyly brothers, are accused of $550M of insider trading.
[Sam and Charles Wyly, Dallas billionaire investors known for their support of conservative candidates and causes, made $550 million in undisclosed profits through 13 years of insider trading, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission lawsuit filed Thursday.]
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/07/29/wyly-sam-charles-sec-insider-trading_n_664479.html
Sorry Hasluck.